mr grieves said:
First, the difference between familiarity and chemistry is something my ex-girlfriends could tell you about. Mistaking one for the other is to be avoided, as it can lead to all sorts of terrible investments. You know, like Tyler Bozak.
Again, I'm just putting forth why Bozak was probably the best choice to be the centre on the #1 PP unit. Kudos on the joke though.
mr grieves said:
Second, on pace for 50 points this season isn't nothing. But in previous seasons where 82 games were actually played, and with the same elite scorer on the wing, Bozak managed 32 and 47 points. If we assume the 50 points this season, that's an average of 43 points. And that production makes him about as appealing a center as Matt Stajan in the contract year the Leafs traded him (cap hit on his next contract: $3.5m).
A few problems there. One, it's a little misleading about Bozak's career numbers. That season of 32 points was his first full season in the league and those 43 points came in 73 games. For his career, Bozak's scored at a .56 PPG pace which puts him at 46 points per 82 games for the course of his career including what looks to be a fairly aberrant first full year/sophomore slump and we all know that guys tend to get paid on what they just did.
Secondly, I think it ignores the very legitimate growth Phil Kessel has also seen during that time period. The Phil Kessel of Bozak's 32 point season scored 32 goals, 64 points(he also wasn't joined at the hip to Bozak as he played a good stretch of that season with Tim Brent/Joey Crabb although that has quite a bit to do with Bozak's struggles that season). By contrast this year's Phil Kessel scored at a 89 point pace. So he's not really the same elite scorer.
Thirdly, I'd argue that Bozak is a significantly better face-off guy/defensive player than Matt Stajan and a touch better of a goal scorer. So when you add that up combined with the natural inflation of salaries as the cap increases then I still think the math says Bozak is "worth" 4 million or more on the open market. Again, I'm not saying I necessarily think the Leafs should give him that money, just that I don't think you're going to be able to get another player, absent growing one yourself, to contribute what Bozak does for less than that.
mr grieves said:
Whether Bozak can be had for it or not, a player who can manage around 45 points with Phil Kessel on his wing surely can be had for $2-2.5m. Heck, we had someone doing it at a $1.5m cap hit for the last two seasons.
But that's just not real. That's like saying that you can find a guy who can score 80+ points for 3.75 million because Philadelphia had Claude Giroux do it for the last few years. RFA salaries are artificially low.
Now, if what you're saying is that the Leafs can replace Bozak internally then, you know, fair enough although I think that's not accurate.
mr grieves said:
I don't doubt that Tyler Bozak will likely command more than $3.5m on the open market, which is why the Leafs will sign him by early July or won't sign him at all.
Well, I suppose where we got tangled is that when you said that 4 million dollars is almost twice as much as any measure suggests he's worth I didn't realize the one measure we weren't considering is what a player of his skill level/production will fetch as a UFA.