Unofficial 2013-2014 Armchair GM Thread

[Britishbulldog]

Here is too hoping Joe Thornton plays his last game tonight as a Shark and that he winds up being Kessel's center for the next few years.

I like the way you are thinking Big Daddy.  Big Joe has been through a lot over his career and would be great to mentor Kadri and Colborne the next 3 years.  I am still hoping that Joe could be had for a 'Iginla' type trade of 2 decent ECAC prospects and a high pick.  San Jose has so many natural centers.

 

[bustaheims]

I wonder if they would wait to see how he does next season before making a decision on a buy out.

I think they can re-sign their RFAs to fill the roster with the cap room they have for next season and I expect the cap to go up significantly after next season. As bad as people are saying Richards was this season, he still was close to top 50 in points this season.

It wouldn't surprise me if they try to make some major changes this summer. I think the Gaborik deal signalled that they recognized there was something wrong with the make-up of the team and that some serious moves needed to be made. That being said, they only have the one compliance buyout left, since they already used one on Redden - and, while they don't have any other particularly odious contracts outside of Richards, they may hold off on it just in case they want to take advantage of their financial leverage.

 

[Big Daddy]

FORWARDS
Joffrey Lupul ($4.250m) / Joe Thornton ($7.000m) / Phil Kessel ($5.400m)
James Van Riemsdyk ($4.250m) / Nazem Kadri ($1.720m) / David Clarkson ($2.667m)
Matt Frattin ($0.925m) / Tyler Bozak ($3.500m) / Nikolai Kulemin ($2.800m)
Frazer McLaren ($0.633m) / Jay McClement ($1.500m) / Leo Komarov ($1.200m)
Joe Colborne ($1.100m) / Colton Orr ($1.000m)
DEFENSEMEN
Dion Phaneuf ($6.500m) / Carl Gunnarsson ($1.325m)
Cody Franson ($1.200m) / Jake Gardiner ($1.117m)
John-Michael Liles ($3.875m) / Mark Fraser ($0.600m)
Korbinian Holzer ($0.575m) /
GOALTENDERS
James Reimer ($1.800m)
Ben Scrivens ($0.613m)
------
CAPGEEK.COM TOTALS (follow @capgeek on Twitter)
SALARY CAP: $64,300,000; CAP PAYROLL: $55,548,333; BONUSES: $1,875,000
CAP SPACE (23-man roster): $8,751,667


How sweet would this be?
We would have to trade Grabovski and prospects back to SJ but who knows.  If SJ loses they may restructure this year.

 

[Kin]

Here is too hoping Joe Thornton plays his last game tonight as a Shark and that he winds up being Kessel's center for the next few years.

I like the way you are thinking Big Daddy.  Big Joe has been through a lot over his career and would be great to mentor Kadri and Colborne the next 3 years.  I am still hoping that Joe could be had for a 'Iginla' type trade of 2 decent ECAC prospects and a high pick.  San Jose has so many natural centers.

You do realize that the Iginla trade was the result of a bunch of factors all of which meant his value was depressed, right? Unless Thornton specifically wants to go to Toronto and will use his NTC to veto a trade anywhere else, is in the middle of a lousy year and the Sharks are in the tank and desperate to start a rebuild it'll be a very different situation.

 

[Kin]

How sweet would this be?

Well, the Leafs would seem to have gotten Thornton for a steal and convinced Clarkson to sign for significantly less than most people think he'll get so it'd be pretty...no, wait, that's the exact same defense.

 

[Big Daddy]

He Nik.  We are allowed to let ourselves dreams arent we..

 

[Kin]

He Nik.  We are allowed to let ourselves dreams arent we..

Absolutely, your dreams should just involve things like Shea Weber deciding that he desperately wants to live in the Skydome hotel or Drew Doughty being appointed the director of TIFF.

 

[Corn Flake]

I think you help the defense by improving up front as much as you do any other way.  Better forwards, especially ones who can forecheck and cycle well are going to help increase time in the offensive zone which means (YOUUU GUESSED IT!) less time in the defensive zone.  And if those forwards are responsible in their own zone, that takes heat off defenders as well.

Yes, the Leafs need to improve on defense on paper, but on paper alone won't cure the problem. Yes they need either a #1 or a #2 depending on how you see Phaneuf.  But.. the Leafs have tried adding expensive bodies on defense for years now and it's not been very successful. The UFA signings have been mostly busts or greatly underachieved. 

This was the first year that team defense was enough to make it to the playoffs. A huge part of that was forwards being responsible. 

Both sides need to improve.

 

[Kin]

But.. the Leafs have tried adding expensive bodies on defense for years now and it's not been very successful.

True, but he's the captain and at this point I think they're more or less stuck with him.

 

[OldTimeHockey]

Here is too hoping Joe Thornton plays his last game tonight as a Shark and that he winds up being Kessel's center for the next few years.

How do you figure?

 

[mr grieves]

Whether Bozak can be had for it or not, a player who can manage around 45 points with Phil Kessel on his wing surely can be had for $2-2.5m. Heck, we had someone doing it at a $1.5m cap hit for the last two seasons.

But that's just not real. That's like saying that you can find a guy who can score 80+ points for 3.75 million because Philadelphia had Claude Giroux do it for the last few years. RFA salaries are artificially low.

Now, if what you're saying is that the Leafs can replace Bozak internally then, you know, fair enough although I think that's not accurate.

It's not real if the only place you can go to replace that production is the UFA market. That's the market I find "artificial" -- I don't know any other word for a world in which Tyler Bozak is the second/third best center available.  If all options for replacing a center are on the table -- sign a UFA, trade for an RFA or someone under contract, or promote someone internally -- then a center who can score 1.55 P/60 (81st in the league among centers) can be had without devoting another $4m+ to the center position.

But you're right. The difference of opinion has to do with whether Bozak can be replaced internally. Promoting Grabovski or Kadri to Bozak's spot will at least replace his 1.55 P/60 production -- in fact, it'll probably improve on the production from the 1C spot. To me, the hole that'd be left by the subtraction of Bozak is not at the top of the depth chart but farther down. And it points to  need the team's had all season: a #3C for a shutdown line that's suited to the role and not paid $5.5m/year. Re-signing Bozak to the money he wants, and playing where Carlyle plays him, would continue that misallocation of cap space.

 

[Kin]

It's not real if the only place you can go to replace that production is the UFA market. That's the market I find "artificial" -- I don't know any other word for a world in which Tyler Bozak is the second/third best center available.  If all options for replacing a center are on the table -- sign a UFA, trade for an RFA or someone under contract, or promote someone internally -- then a center who can score 1.55 P/60 (81st in the league among centers) can be had without devoting another $4m+ to the center position.

Well, all options are on the table but when you get past the UFA market or promoting someone internally then you have to factor in what it would cost to trade for the hypothetical replacement which can be an even trickier measurement than the relatively simple "How good is Player X/what will he fetch on the market". Remember, we're trying to figure out cost/benefit here.

But you're right. The difference of opinion has to do with whether Bozak can be replaced internally. Promoting Grabovski or Kadri to Bozak's spot will at least replace his 1.55 P/60 production -- in fact, it'll probably improve on the production from the 1C spot. To me, the hole that'd be left by the subtraction of Bozak is not at the top of the depth chart but farther down. And it points to  need the team's had all season: a #3C for a shutdown line that's suited to the role and not paid $5.5m/year.

Which is fine and all but I still think you're underestimating the actual cost of players. A really good 3rd line centre is probably going to cost you at least 3 million per year on the open market and that's if one's available/willing to sign. Likewise, trading for someone who can fill that role is likely to be pretty expensive.

So, again, I don't disagree that the Leafs should consider all of their options before making an effort to re-sign Bozak I just think that you're being a little optimistic about what their options realistically are.

Also, when calculating Points per 60 are you using 60 minutes at ES or 60 minutes of ES/PP?

 

[Corn Flake]

But.. the Leafs have tried adding expensive bodies on defense for years now and it's not been very successful.

True, but he's the captain and at this point I think they're more or less stuck with him.

oh, you.

 

[Britishbulldog]

How sweet would this be?

Well, the Leafs would seem to have gotten Thornton for a steal and convinced Clarkson to sign for significantly less than most people think he'll get so it'd be pretty...no, wait, that's the exact same defense.

FORWARDS
Joffrey Lupul ($5.250m) / Joe Thornton ($7.000m) / Phil Kessel ($5.400m)
James Van Riemsdyk ($4.250m) / Nazem Kadri ($2.800m) / David Clarkson ($3.500m)
Matt Frattin ($0.925m) / Joe Colborne ($1.000m) / Nikolai Kulemin ($2.800m)
Leo Komarov ($1.000m) / Jay McClement ($1.500m) / Colton Orr ($0.700m)
Frazer McLaren ($0.700m) / warm body ($0.600m) /
DEFENSEMEN
Dion Phaneuf ($6.500m) / Carl Gunnarsson ($2.500m)
Jake Gardiner ($1.117m) / Cody Franson ($3.000m)
Mark Fraser ($0.800m) / John-Michael Liles ($3.875m)
warm body ($0.600m) /
GOALTENDERS
James Reimer ($1.800m)
Ben Scrivens ($0.613m)
OTHER
Buyout: Darcy Tucker ($1.000m)
Buyout: Colby Armstrong ($1.000m)
------
CAPGEEK.COM TOTALS (follow @capgeek on Twitter)
(these totals are compiled with the bonus cushion)
SALARY CAP: $64,300,000; CAP PAYROLL: $63,804,167; BONUSES: $300,000
CAP SPACE (23-man roster): $795,833

I would say that is the most that the players would be signed for.  On defense it would be Gunnarson and Liles ($6.375 MIL) moved to make room for a top pairing veteran (maybe $4.6 MIL) and an AHL top candidate ($0.8 ) for the bottom pairing.

If Grabovski was kept or if Lecavalier and Richards are bought out and either signed to a $5.5 MIL cap hit, although obviously none of them would be as good as Thornton, it would allow more investment in the other positions.

 

[WhatIfGodWasALeaf]

David Clarkson is going to make upwards of 5 million on the open market imo.

Either that or he signs somewhere for like 10 years at 4 million per.

 

[bustaheims]

David Clarkson is going to make upwards of 5 million on the open market imo.

Either that or he signs somewhere for like 10 years at 4 million per.

Well, the longest contract he can sign with anyone other than the Devils is 7 years, so, probably closer to $4.5M for 7 (or 8 if he decides to stay with the Devils).

 

[WhatIfGodWasALeaf]

David Clarkson is going to make upwards of 5 million on the open market imo.

Either that or he signs somewhere for like 10 years at 4 million per.

Well, the longest contract he can sign with anyone other than the Devils is 7 years, so, probably closer to $4.5M for 7 (or 8 if he decides to stay with the Devils).

Yeah, totally forgot about the new length limitation of the new CBA, he'll either sign a really inflated 5+ shorter term deal or as you say a max term 4/4.5 type of deal.

 

[sneakyray]

So whats the thought of the avs thinking about exploring trading their first rounder this year?

I can't even begin to comprehend what it would take from the leafs to enter this conversation.

 

[Kin]

So whats the thought of the avs thinking about exploring trading their first rounder this year?

I think it's possible if, say, Roy's experience in the QMJHL has him favouring Drouin over Jones or McKinnon but there's no way they trade out of the top 2 or 3.

 

[bustaheims]

So whats the thought of the avs thinking about exploring trading their first rounder this year?

I can't even begin to comprehend what it would take from the leafs to enter this conversation.

There's pretty much no way they trade out of the top 3 without getting an equivalent player in return. There's virtually no way the Leafs can enter the conversation for anything more than kicking the tires.