What to do with Andersen

[princedpw]

This year though we made pretty considerable improvements in those numbers. Our CA/60 was 55.5, good for 13th in the league. In shots against per 60 we were at 30.82, 18th in the league. And our xGA/60 was 2.32, tied for 17th in the league with Carolina!

I'm admittedly out of my depth with some of these stats, but when I look at HDCA (High danger chances against), the Leafs are 6th worst in the league this season. However, Freddy's HDSV% is 9th best. Doesn't that indicate he's being hung out to dry, like most seasons?

6th worst in raw counts but generally speaking those stats are best used as a per 60 rate since total 5-on-5 ice times can vary pretty widely between teams. At a per 60 rate they were 11th worst. Not great sure, but hey could be worse. I also generally put more stock in those other stats since there's a larger sample to look at with them and sometimes they don't seem super reflective of a teams defensive strength. For instance in 16/17 the Leafs had the 3rd highest CA/60 and the 3rd worst xGA/60 but just the 17th highest HDCA/60. There were similiar-ish trends in 17/18 and 18/19 as well. I just think there's 3 years of things like CA/60 and xGA/60 accurately portraying the Leafs are a bad defensive team so when there's pretty noticeable improvements in those specific stats I think that means something.

As for Freddy's HDSV%, I'd have to ask how you got to Freddy coming in 9th. According to NST among goalies who played 1000 5-on-5 minutes he's 40th among 54 goalies.

None of the expected goals stats or dangerous shot stats account for pre-shot movement or the time and space an offensive player has.  I think that may be one of the reasons that predicting goalies appears to be such a black art.  It might explain how a guy like Bob goes from being a Vezina candidate one year to train wreck the next on a different team.

Anyway, no matter how you slice it, predicting future goalie performance is really, really, really hard ... the stats we have currently just don't seem to be reliable enough to allow us to draw many hard and fast conclusions.  I've pretty much given up on it.  But, of course, there's no doubt making the wrong decision will absolutely kill you.  I certainly wouldn't want to be Dubas having to make these decisions.

 

[herman]

Have y?all looked at goalie stats year over year lol

 

[Guru Tugginmypuddah]

FIRE HIM INTO THE SUN

 

[Guilt Trip]

FIRE HIM INTO THE SUN

I was just thinking that, lol.

 

[Bender]

FIRE HIM INTO THE SUN

That'd really heat up a sizzle reel.

 

[Andy007]

Ander-Sun????
Damn, just still can't compete with Carlton's Ander-stay or Ander-go.. 

 

[CarltonTheBear]

Ander-Sun????
Damn, just still can't compete with Carlton's Ander-stay or Ander-go.. 

It's a pretty high bar.

 

[Kin]

Look, I'm sorry, but my "Crummy Old Danish" pull was spectacular.

 

[Andy007]

Jeez, I didn't even get the Danish double entendre the first time. But then again, puns aren't exactly what I'm...krone...for...

 

[Phileas Fogg]

I'm really not sure they should lego a guy who's been proven so reliable.

Considering the flat cap and the musical goalies available this season, maybe they should actually consider a lowballish short (2-3 yr) extension instead of moving him.

 

[dappleganger]

I'm really not sure they should lego a guy who's been proven so reliable.

Considering the flat cap and the musical goalies available this season, maybe they should actually consider a lowballish short (2-3 yr) extension instead of moving him.

I wouldn't mind that. 3 years/$18m?

 

[Guilt Trip]

I'm really not sure they should lego a guy who's been proven so reliable.

Considering the flat cap and the musical goalies available this season, maybe they should actually consider a lowballish short (2-3 yr) extension instead of moving him.

I wouldn't mind that. 3 years/$18m?

Kuemper at 4.5 for 2 years is something I'd explore.

 

[CarltonTheBear]

I sorta figure what the general reaction to this might be, but it's sounding like the Rangers are headed toward a buyout with Henrik Lundqvist this offseason.

He wouldn't exactly be my top choice, but if he signs a pretty cheap $1-2mil type contract he could potentially provide a lot of value while also giving us more cap space than any other potential goalie option would.

 

[bustaheims]

I sorta figure what the general reaction to this might be, but it's sounding like the Rangers are headed toward a buyout with Henrik Lundqvist this offseason.

He wouldn't exactly be my top choice, but if he signs a pretty cheap $1-2mil type contract he could potentially provide a lot of value while also giving us more cap space than any other potential goalie option would.

Have to imagine a buy out would mean he's leaning towards retirement. On top of that, he hasn't exactly been more than an average-ish goalie for the last 4 season, including the lowest Sv% of his career in 3 of those 4 seasons. His ES Sv% last season isn't exactly inspiring, either. I don't know if he's an option if we're looking at a goalie to handle a significant portion of the load.

And, quite frankly, I'd rather see him retire having played his whole career with the Rangers than have him play what is likely to be a less than great final season in a different uniform.

 

[ZBBM]

I'm really not sure they should lego a guy who's been proven so reliable.

Considering the flat cap and the musical goalies available this season, maybe they should actually consider a lowballish short (2-3 yr) extension instead of moving him.

I see what you did there.  Not quite as spectacular as Nik's, but then again you are just toying with us.

 

[ZBBM]

Aren't all these suggestions sideways moves ? if we reach? 

If they are trying to win a Cup and Andersen is as good as or better than any availab;e option, then moving him for the sake of moving him doesn't make a whole lot of sense.  If they are floundering at the next deadline, then maybe.

 

[Bender]

I sorta figure what the general reaction to this might be, but it's sounding like the Rangers are headed toward a buyout with Henrik Lundqvist this offseason.

He wouldn't exactly be my top choice, but if he signs a pretty cheap $1-2mil type contract he could potentially provide a lot of value while also giving us more cap space than any other potential goalie option would.

I'm really not down on this. If there are goalies out there this year we should jump on them.

Sent from my SM-G986W using Tapatalk

 

[CarltonTheBear]

Have to imagine a buy out would mean he's leaning towards retirement.

If he's leaning toward retirement then the Rangers wouldn't buy him out, he'd just retire and save them a ton of cap space. They only buy him out if he still wants to play, which it sounds like he does.

On top of that, he hasn't exactly been more than an average-ish goalie for the last 4 season, including the lowest Sv% of his career in 3 of those 4 seasons. His ES Sv% last season isn't exactly inspiring, either. I don't know if he's an option if we're looking at a goalie to handle a significant portion of the load.

I'd be pretty content with an "average-ish goalie" to platoon alongside Campbell this next season to be honest if it meant we could upgrade our defence even more without having to further weaken our forward depth by moving Johnsson. Lundqvist at $1.5mil would mean we could potentially sign both Brodie and DeMelo. We couldn't do that with a goalie in the $4-5mil range without trading Johnsson and given how voodoo goalies are we could still be getting an "average-ish" goalie at that price.

Also when looking at Lundqvist's numbers I think it's worth pointing out the Rangers have been one of the worst defensive teams in the league these past 4 seasons. Like on par or worse than the Leafs. This past season in particular the Rangers were significantly worse defensively. I dunno it's a bit of a hunch sure but I still think he's got something left.

And, quite frankly, I'd rather see him retire having played his whole career with the Rangers than have him play what is likely to be a less than great final season in a different uniform.

Winning a Cup alongside a few fellow Swedes wouldn't be so bad either.

 

[CarltonTheBear]

Assuming Spezza at $700k, Lundqvist at $1.5mil, Brodie at $5mil, DeMelo at $2.25mil, and trades that see Andersen and Dermott both moved we'd have a line-up of:

Johnsson-Matthews-Nylander
Hyman-Tavares-Marner
Mikheyev-Kerfoot-Barabanov
Robertson-Engvall-Spezza

Rielly-Brodie
Muzzin-DeMelo
Sandin-Holl
Lehtonen

Lundqvist
Campbell

Lundqvist is a risk no doubt about it, and I don't make these moves without those Brodie and DeMelo signings (if DeMelo comes in at more, Engvall gets traded and replaced with a league minimum guy) done.

But you're not getting a better forward or defence group than that with a goalie making more than $3mil. I guess that's my point. I'd rather take that chance in net and ensure the rest of the line-up is bolstered.

 

[herman]