What to do with JVR

[Kin]

But this is sort of interesting... I don't doubt that JvR is liked, but I suspect Matthews, Nylander, and the like would take JvR's departure as a challenge: it's their team now.

The thing about this discussion is that it does tend to boil down to the tangible benefits of trading JVR vs. the perceived intangible benefits of keeping him and the resulting success it brings. As someone who doesn't like dismissing the idea that intangible things have real value when it comes to roster decisions(a position I have more company in when talking about questionable decisions this management group makes vs. any other funnily enough) I worry that this doesn't, as you say here, acknowledge that there are potentially intangible benefits to moving JVR as well.

Yes, maybe some players see it as "Wait, JVR was my buddy. Do they not care about that?" and that's a legitimate concern. But they also might see it as "Wow, this team is cutthroat in their desire to win a cup. That's good, because so am I".

Maybe Jonathan Toews got on great with Tuomo Ruutu. Maybe Sid Crosby loathed Ryan Whitney. Either way, I don't think that can drive decision making too much.

 

[Kin]

If you prescribe to the idea that the Leafs best chance to win a cup might actually be before the big 3 + Gardiner all have their next contracts kick in (*) then trading those magic beans for a nickel and hoping the prospects provide the same impact during one of the two seasons they have their best shot at it doesn't add up.

I don't think anyone has made the case that you should only trade JVR for prospects or that you shouldn't make any other moves to improve the team immediately while still realizing the rewards of trading your UFA's on expiring deals.

 

[herman]

In principle, I agree with all that you're saying. I don't think the Leafs see JvR that way though.

I wasn't really working under the assumption that the front office and I saw things the same way. My contention here is they're wrong.

Haha that's pretty well established.

I'm trying to see this problem from the team's perspective to get a better sense of their valuation process, and currently I see they would prefer to let JvR/Bozak walk at the end of this season, rather than trade for what is currently available to them on the market (nickels). Which is not to say that keeping them this long hasn't already been a mistake, or that it really speaks to their desire to win in this brief window.

They're not locker room bad guys, so there's no inherent value in subtraction, and the team is more conservative about the filler that takes their place.

 

[ZBBM]

I think you have to consider too what trading JVR would mean for Bozak's performance.  They have been a tandem for a good while and (notwithstanding whatever friendship issues might be underlying) it could well be that a JVR departure would negatively affect Bozak's performance too. 

I'm ambivalent about trading JVR at this point, but if they do I think they should also deal Bozak.  In for a dime, in for a dollar.

 

[WhatIfGodWasALeaf]

I think he could still fetch a kings ransom if you can find the right dance partner.

Retain 50% of his salary and JVR with a cap hit of 2 million is by far the most attractive name out there on the market.

 

[Kin]

Yeah, something else to keep in mind is the "nickels" analogy was just meant to highlight a dwindling in value. We have no real way of knowing what the actual market out there is for JVR beyond knowing that the Leafs don't like it more than JVR.

But something to keep in mind, and this goes back to the Hamonic stuff, is that while it's probably true that JVR can't fetch the sorts of defenseman that the team really needs, the assets he'd return are far more fungible than he is. I don't think a 1st round pick and two 2nd round picks are more valuable than JVR but I do buy that the Islanders didn't really see a need for JVR.

 

[rdowdall]

Yeah, something else to keep in mind is the "nickels" analogy was just meant to highlight a dwindling in value. We have no real way of knowing what the actual market out there is for JVR beyond knowing that the Leafs don't like it more than JVR.

But something to keep in mind, and this goes back to the Hamonic stuff, is that while it's probably true that JVR can't fetch the sorts of defenseman that the team really needs, the assets he'd return are far more fungible than he is. I don't think a 1st round pick and two 2nd round picks are more valuable than JVR but I do buy that the Islanders didn't really see a need for JVR.

Depends on who initiated the talks and what all was involved.  If the Islanders contacted the Leafs and said that they wanted a package of JVR plus for Hamonic, but they wanted the Leafs to take back salary, it's possible the Islanders decided to go the other route and unload Strome to the Oilers to get a comparable player.

They may have felt there was a need for JVR, but not at any cost.

I have a feeling they are going to sign both Bozak and JVR to deals, perhaps even long term deals, and then see what assets they have to move.  I'm not sure this is the right approach though.

 

[Kin]

Depends on who initiated the talks and what all was involved.  If the Islanders contacted the Leafs and said that they wanted a package of JVR plus for Hamonic, but they wanted the Leafs to take back salary, it's possible the Islanders decided to go the other route and unload Strome to the Oilers to get a comparable player.

I maybe should have said "can buy" rather than "do buy". I can't say for sure why the Islanders went the other way but I am comfortable in saying that, generally speaking, picks are more fungible than any individual player.

 

[WhatIfGodWasALeaf]

As for why the Islanders went the other way, I've heard multiple Leafs beat guys mention it was because JVR would not answer his phone and confirm he was open to a long-term deal with the Islanders, take that for what it's worth, but Mirtle, Siegel and CJ all seem fairly reliable.

 

[rdowdall]

Depends on who initiated the talks and what all was involved.  If the Islanders contacted the Leafs and said that they wanted a package of JVR plus for Hamonic, but they wanted the Leafs to take back salary, it's possible the Islanders decided to go the other route and unload Strome to the Oilers to get a comparable player.

I maybe should have said "can buy" rather than "do buy". I can't say for sure why the Islanders went the other way but I am comfortable in saying that, generally speaking, picks are more fungible than any individual player.

Do you have a fungible quota for the day?

I know you don't like looking at deals this way, but if you take what the Islanders moved out on draft day, they moved out Hamonic, Strome, and a 4th rounder in either 2019 or 2020.  They got back Eberle, a 1st in 2018, a 2nd in 2018, and a 2nd in either 2019 or 2020. 

I can see a possibility where a team would value JvR more than Eberle.  He seems more consistent, and he has a lower salaray.  On the con side, he could walk at the end of the year, and that might be a real big deal for a team like the Islanders.  Based on that premise and looking at the moves that the Islanders did make, I could see a scenario where the Islanders were working on a similar deal with the Leafs, but it fell through because the Leafs didn't want to offer up all of the draft picks or similar draft picks that Calgary did.  Or maybe they didn't want to take back Strome, because ultimately they were trying to open up a roster spot for someone and if that were the case, then it's possible they wanted to stay with the devil they do know, rather than the one they don't.  There could have been a couple reasons why the deal fell through which don't have anything to do with the way teams value JvR.

I do think though that part of the problem is that the Leafs do appear to be a bit gun shy about going all in and handing the reigns of the team over to their young players, because I think there is a way that you could move a player like JvR, because we have seen Hall and Eberle move off the Oilers, so it is possible to deal wingers and get something back.  Also it wasn't too long ago that Kane was moved out of Winnipeg. 

 

[Kin]

Yeah, again, I really wasn't making a point about the Islanders and the potential trade for JVR. Just making a point about how picks have a more universal value than a player would.

A point which, by the way, you sort of make yourself:

I can see a possibility where a team would value JvR more than Eberle. 

Sure. One example being if a team had lots of strength on the right side but less on the left. Again, this is my point that really doesn't require a deep meditation on the JVR for Hamonic talks. A player's value will heavily depend on how much a certain team wants that specific player. This is less true for draft picks.

 

[WhatIfGodWasALeaf]

Galchenyuk is on the 4th line in Montreal, would anyone take him for JVR plus a wing prospect and pick not in the 1st/2nd round?

Is he the new Yakupov?

 

[CarltonTheBear]

One of Cox or Simmons said that they didn't think the Islanders had much interest in JVR, so I'm assuming it was Toronto who brought his name up. That does make sense since they already have Anders Lee, who was coming off a 30 goal/50 point season and Andrew Ladd, who despite a disappointing season still managed to score 23 goals and obviously has a hefty contract, on the left-side.

 

[Zee]

Galchenyuk is on the 4th line in Montreal, would anyone take him for JVR plus a wing prospect and pick not in the 1st/2nd round?

Is he the new Yakupov?

Galchenyuk is an interesting proposition.  He's 5 years younger than JVR, but at this point with his confidence at an all time low he would be a reclamation project for any team.  Maybe he's one of those guys where a change of scenery is best and he finds his game again?  He's under contract for 2 more seasons after this at a slightly higher cap hit than JVR currently has, so he could fit into the Leafs salary structure in the short term.  Whether or not he gets back to scoring 20+ goals is anyone's guess.

Edit: actually looking at this stats he was on pace for 22 goals last year but missed due to injury.  So maybe he's still a 20 goal guy?

 

[rdowdall]

Yeah, again, I really wasn't making a point about the Islanders and the potential trade for JVR. Just making a point about how picks have a more universal value than a player would.

A point which, by the way, you sort of make yourself:

I can see a possibility where a team would value JvR more than Eberle. 

Sure. One example being if a team had lots of strength on the right side but less on the left. Again, this is my point that really doesn't require a deep meditation on the JVR for Hamonic talks. A player's value will heavily depend on how much a certain team wants that specific player. This is less true for draft picks.

Sorry, I misunderstood.  I thought that you meant that JvR was considered by most teams to be a low valued player around the league and that was why the Islanders didn't want to make the move, and not specifically that team in the Islanders situation may consider JvR to be of low value. 

If we aren't here for deep meditation, then what does all this really mean? 

 

[Zee]

The problem with JVR is his age.  He's turning 29 in May, and as it's been pointed before, players peak in their early 20s, so his best days are already behind him.  I wouldn't want to commit anymore than 4 years to a player like that.

 

[rdowdall]

The problem with JVR is his age.  He's turning 29 in May, and as it's been pointed before, players peak in their early 20s, so his best days are already behind him.  I wouldn't want to commit anymore than 4 years to a player like that.

Which is a similar situation that Ottawa is finding themselves in concerning Kyle Turris.  He's 28, and he's pretty good, but he wants 8 years and Ottawa is afraid to put in that kind of commitment.  So the rumour is that they will play him for the year, potentially let him walk, and deal with the situation in the summer time.

So in Ottawa, I get it, because they really want to make the playoffs, and seem to be in win now mode.  That's really got to point to the Leafs feeling the same way, but they really shouldn't.  I don't think letting JvR walk would hurt the team in any significant way.  It's just an example of poor asset management at that point.

 

[Kin]

The problem with JVR is his age.  He's turning 29 in May, and as it's been pointed before, players peak in their early 20s, so his best days are already behind him.  I wouldn't want to commit anymore than 4 years to a player like that.

That sort of feeds into my puzzlement. Like obviously if it were up to me I'd trade him but with that said, I at least understand re-signing him from the POV of the Leafs thinking that the forward group they have right now is so uniquely suited to each other that they need to keep the group together and simply make do on the back end. I mean, I'd disagree with it but I understand the POV.

The "he's far too important to trade but we'll let him walk for nothing" bit is where I'm at a loss.

 

[mr grieves]

If you prescribe to the idea that the Leafs best chance to win a cup might actually be before the big 3 + Gardiner all have their next contracts kick in (*) then trading those magic beans for a nickel and hoping the prospects provide the same impact during one of the two seasons they have their best shot at it doesn't add up.

I don't think anyone has made the case that you should only trade JVR for prospects or that you shouldn't make any other moves to improve the team immediately while still realizing the rewards of trading your UFA's on expiring deals.

Well, I have.

If, in 2 years, there's going to be a 7-8 player core taking over 50% of the cap, you need to keep finding cheap, talented depth to fill out the roster. Picking 11 times vs. 8 times in upcoming draft improves the team's chances of having depth good enough to contend over the next decade.

I just don't buy that "win now/trade JvR" dichotomy and doubt the team will be significantly hurt moving him out. They'll lose a few goals, probably, but they'll also give up fewer goals.

Keeping him feels like splurging a decent pick on a rental, which is something a team whose window is closing maybe ought to do -- but not the Leafs.

 

[hockeyfan1]

Darren Dreger had this to say on TSN Wednesday night: "I expect that he'll be traded. [Teams] expect that JvR will be traded at some point between now and February 26th. It's just the reality of the situation around the NHL, and specific to here in Toronto. The Leafs would need a cap explosion. They'd need another 10-15 million for all of these players. He's a valuable asset to move out."


https://www.hockeyfeed.com/nhl-news/your-call-should-the-leafs-sign-or-trade-jvr


I would personally like JVR to stay a Leaf.  However, considering  the cap situation and the upcoming contracts of Matthews & Nylander, (and others), depending on what transpires this year with the roster & players they currently have/retain, it'll all come down to the mathematics and probabilities of how the Leafs perform not just for this year but what the foreseeable future will look like down the road.

Lamoriello & co., have their work cut out for them and the decisions they make will have an impact on the Leafs for better and/or for worse, more the former than the latter, considering the vast amount of skill that the team already showcases.  As long the Leafs continue to draft shrewdly and accrue assets wisely, in Lou & co., we trust.