What to do with JVR

[Kin]

Well, I have.

I like to think you're reasonable enough to be open to trading JVR if the return was a good young NHL player on a reasonable medium term deal.

 

[Zee]

The problem with JVR is his age.  He's turning 29 in May, and as it's been pointed before, players peak in their early 20s, so his best days are already behind him.  I wouldn't want to commit anymore than 4 years to a player like that.

That sort of feeds into my puzzlement. Like obviously if it were up to me I'd trade him but with that said, I at least understand re-signing him from the POV of the Leafs thinking that the forward group they have right now is so uniquely suited to each other that they need to keep the group together and simply make do on the back end. I mean, I'd disagree with it but I understand the POV.

The "he's far too important to trade but we'll let him walk for nothing" bit is where I'm at a loss.

Unless they feel they can't get equal value right now for him, so you're taking a 20+ goal scorer out of your lineup without a replacement coming in a trade so the thought process is keep him for the playoffs this year.  Going forward you hope that next season you can plug in a younger guy to take that spot, either through promotion from the Marlies or trade/free agent signing? 

Letting him walk for nothing is a bit puzzling except the nothing is cap space so it's something.

 

[CarltonTheBear]

Edit: actually looking at this stats he was on pace for 22 goals last year but missed due to injury.  So maybe he's still a 20 goal guy?

In Tyler Seguin's first 3 seasons with the Bruins he scored 121 points in 203 games for a PPG rate of .60. In Galchenyuk's first 5 seasons with the Habs he scored 336 points in 204 games for a PPG rate of... 0.60.

Galchenyuk isn't Tyler Seguin, but there's a lot of similarities in that they both faced a lot of questions like is he a centre or a winger, should we play him on the top line, can he play defensive hockey, does he rely solely on his talent, can he work hard enough. I think if he went to a team that just let him be himself I'm certain he'd see a bump in points just like Seguin did. He wouldn't become point-per-game good like Seguin did, but a bump nonetheless.

Also somewhat interesting that the same guy who coached Tyler Seguin out of Boston is currently in the process of probably doing the same thing to Galch.

 

[mr grieves]

Well, I have.

I like to think you're reasonable enough to be open to trading JVR if the return was a good young NHL player on a reasonable medium term deal.

Ah misplaced the modifier while reading.

Yes, a good deal, they should definitely take.

Absent that, a typical deal -- prospect or a pick or two -- they should definitely take.

There's no circumstance other than a Cup in the spring that would make JvR's value on the team outweigh what they'd get trading him for prospects or even picks.

 

[Zee]

Edit: actually looking at this stats he was on pace for 22 goals last year but missed due to injury.  So maybe he's still a 20 goal guy?

In Tyler Seguin's first 3 seasons with the Bruins he scored 121 points in 203 games for a PPG rate of .60. In Galchenyuk's first 5 seasons with the Habs he scored 336 points in 204 games for a PPG rate of... 0.60.

Galchenyuk isn't Tyler Seguin, but there's a lot of similarities in that they both faced a lot of questions like is he a centre or a winger, should we play him on the top line, can he play defensive hockey, does he rely solely on his talent, can he work hard enough. I think if he went to a team that just let him be himself I'm certain he'd see a bump in points just like Seguin did. He wouldn't become point-per-game good like Seguin did, but a bump nonetheless.

Also somewhat interesting that the same guy who coached Tyler Seguin out of Boston is currently in the process of probably doing the same thing to Galch.

Whatever ends up hurting the Habs is OK in my books.  If he goes to another team and puts up more points while his replacement in Montreal stinks and they fall to the bottom of the standings -- good.  In an ideal world I want to see the Habs make a panic trade where they give up their first round pick, not lottery protected, in an effort to make the playoffs this year.  Then they miss the playoffs, and the unprotected lottery pick wins the lottery.  Maximum pain for Montreal.

 

[Kin]

Unless they feel they can't get equal value right now for him, so you're taking a 20+ goal scorer out of your lineup without a replacement coming in a trade so the thought process is keep him for the playoffs this year.  Going forward you hope that next season you can plug in a younger guy to take that spot, either through promotion from the Marlies or trade/free agent signing? 

Again, I appreciate that may be their thought process but I still don't get how you'd make the argument that it's so all-fire important to have another 20 goal scorer in the lineup this year that it outweighs the potentially legitimate return you get(including, keep in mind, the cap space to replace him next year still).

Absent thinking we're about to be in a nuclear war with North Korea, I don't see the urgency there.

 

[CarltonTheBear]

Again, I appreciate that may be their thought process but I still don't get how you'd make the argument that it's so all-fire important to have another 20 goal scorer in the lineup this year that it outweighs the potentially legitimate return you get(including, keep in mind, the cap space to replace him next year still).

With Connor Brown currently on the 4th line, you could argue that we ALREADY have JVR's 20-goal replacement on the team. If JVR went the lines would just likely go to:

Hyman-Matthews-Nylander
Marleau-Kadri-Brown
Komarov-Bozak-Marner
Martin-Moore-Leivo

1st line stays the same quality wise. 2nd line stays about the same, maybe even gets a little better to be honest. I think Brown should be there anyway. 3rd line loses offence but adds a pretty massive defensive improvement. And Bozak and Marner should still be able to create plenty of scoring on their own in sheltered minutes. 4th line gets worse but still a better-than-average 4th line.

The biggest loss that a JVR trade would cause in this line-up right now is on the powerplay. But generally the Leafs have run their two units basically evenly. If they just started playing the Matthews unit more in the 3-4 minutes per game area that other elite forwards play our PP rate probably wouldn't even drop.

 

[Zee]

Unless they feel they can't get equal value right now for him, so you're taking a 20+ goal scorer out of your lineup without a replacement coming in a trade so the thought process is keep him for the playoffs this year.  Going forward you hope that next season you can plug in a younger guy to take that spot, either through promotion from the Marlies or trade/free agent signing? 

Again, I appreciate that may be their thought process but I still don't get how you'd make the argument that it's so all-fire important to have another 20 goal scorer in the lineup this year that it outweighs the potentially legitimate return you get(including, keep in mind, the cap space to replace him next year still).

Absent thinking we're about to be in a nuclear war with North Korea, I don't see the urgency there.

What legitimate return could they get for JVR right now though?  He's going to be a UFA so other teams aren't going to give you equal value.  A draft pick sure, but that's years down the road.  Teams lose players for nothing all the time, and they can gain players for nothing as well such as a waiver pickup/free agent signing.  Having an experienced player like JVR on the playoff roster might bode well for this season as opposed to trading him for a pick.

 

[WhatIfGodWasALeaf]

Unless they feel they can't get equal value right now for him, so you're taking a 20+ goal scorer out of your lineup without a replacement coming in a trade so the thought process is keep him for the playoffs this year.  Going forward you hope that next season you can plug in a younger guy to take that spot, either through promotion from the Marlies or trade/free agent signing? 

Again, I appreciate that may be their thought process but I still don't get how you'd make the argument that it's so all-fire important to have another 20 goal scorer in the lineup this year that it outweighs the potentially legitimate return you get(including, keep in mind, the cap space to replace him next year still).

Absent thinking we're about to be in a nuclear war with North Korea, I don't see the urgency there.

What legitimate return could they get for JVR right now though?  He's going to be a UFA so other teams aren't going to give you equal value.  A draft pick sure, but that's years down the road.  Teams lose players for nothing all the time, and they can gain players for nothing as well such as a waiver pickup/free agent signing.  Having an experienced player like JVR on the playoff roster might bode well for this season as opposed to trading him for a pick.

Kevin Shattenkirk fetched a 1st, a 2nd and two players just last year as a rental.

I know dman are more valuable, but a 30 goal scorer, elite on the PP, at a cap hit of potentially only 2 million still has significant trade value.

Also, the Leafs can allow other teams to talk to JVR about the parameters of an extension also, that could increase his trade value too.

 

[CarltonTheBear]

Kevin Shattenkirk fetched a 1st, a 2nd and two players just last year as a rental.

I know dman are more valuable, but a 30 goal scorer, elite on the PP, at a cap hit of potentially only 2 million still has significant trade value.

Martin Hanzal got something similar too. Two years ago Ladd got a 1st, a conditional 3rd, and a top prospect. So a 1st round pick + _____ would almost certainly be the return.

 

[Kin]

What legitimate return could they get for JVR right now though?  He's going to be a UFA so other teams aren't going to give you equal value.  A draft pick sure, but that's years down the road.

I really don't understand the cognitive dissonance that in one sentence says you can trade draft picks for a player like JVR and then in the next say that a draft pick can't help you for years.

 

[Zee]

Unless you mean taking the draft pick you get for JVR and using it as a chip in another trade down the line.

 

[Zee]

Kevin Shattenkirk fetched a 1st, a 2nd and two players just last year as a rental.

I know dman are more valuable, but a 30 goal scorer, elite on the PP, at a cap hit of potentially only 2 million still has significant trade value.

Martin Hanzal got something similar too. Two years ago Ladd got a 1st, a conditional 3rd, and a top prospect. So a 1st round pick + _____ would almost certainly be the return.

Maybe the plan is to trade him and get something like that in return? Why are we of the belief the Leafs won't deal him? Cause Mirtle says so?

 

[Kin]

Unless you mean taking the draft pick you get for JVR and using it as a chip in another trade down the line.

Pretty much. Picks are assets. Alternately you can take the picks you'd get in a JVR trade and, secure in the knowledge that those picks will keep the prospect cupboard stocked, use other picks/prospects to make a deal.

 

[CarltonTheBear]

Maybe the plan is to trade him and get something like that in return? Why are we of the belief the Leafs won't deal him? Cause Mirtle says so?

I don't think anybody can say with any certainty whether the Leafs plan on trading him at the deadline or not. Lou probably can't even say that without knowing where the Leafs are in the standings. But I think a lot of his moves have shown that he does have a pretty big eye on the present. The Andersen trade. The Boyle trade and the lack of Hunwick/Polak trades at the deadline last year. The Marleau contract. If he thinks that keeping JVR makes the Leafs a serious Cup contender this year then I absolutely think he'll take the risk and keep him past the deadline.

 

[mr grieves]

Maybe the plan is to trade him and get something like that in return? Why are we of the belief the Leafs won't deal him? Cause Mirtle says so?

I don't think anybody can say with any certainty whether the Leafs plan on trading him at the deadline or not. Lou probably can't even say that without knowing where the Leafs are in the standings. But I think a lot of his moves have shown that he does have a pretty big eye on the present. The Andersen trade. The Boyle trade and the lack of Hunwick/Polak trades at the deadline last year. The Marleau contract. If he thinks that keeping JVR makes the Leafs a serious Cup contender this year then I absolutely think he'll take the risk and keep him past the deadline.

I think this is likely what'll happen.

But I'd underline -- just to point up what bad management it is to keep him -- that, in one important way, there's really no "risk" in keeping JvR past the deadline. It's a decision to burn an asset. You're not "risking" not getting anything out of him beyond what he can produce between February and April, you've decided that's enough.

 

[disco]

On power-play and in the playoffs, that big body is in front of the net and durability along the boards is great to have. But this is the salary-cap era. After the Big-Three, defensemen, goaltending and depth at center, wingers unfortunately are the last thing precious cap-dollars should go towards. Especially with the wealth of young forwards the Leafs have that can come up.

Because of the reasons stated, if I could only make one offer to either JVR, Bozak or Komorov, I would actually make the offer to Bozak for depth down the middle.

 

[dappleganger]

Maybe the plan is to trade him and get something like that in return? Why are we of the belief the Leafs won't deal him? Cause Mirtle says so?

I don't think anybody can say with any certainty whether the Leafs plan on trading him at the deadline or not. Lou probably can't even say that without knowing where the Leafs are in the standings. But I think a lot of his moves have shown that he does have a pretty big eye on the present. The Andersen trade. The Boyle trade and the lack of Hunwick/Polak trades at the deadline last year. The Marleau contract. If he thinks that keeping JVR makes the Leafs a serious Cup contender this year then I absolutely think he'll take the risk and keep him past the deadline.

I think this is likely what'll happen.

But I'd underline -- just to point up what bad management it is to keep him -- that, in one important way, there's really no "risk" in keeping JvR past the deadline. It's a decision to burn an asset. You're not "risking" not getting anything out of him beyond what he can produce between February and April, you've decided that's enough.

It's bad management, imo, if the Leafs miss the playoffs and keep JVR. If the Leafs look like a team capable of winning a round or two at the trade deadline I think it'd be bad management to trade JVR, unless he'll bring in a roster player that'll be an upgrade somewhere, which is highly unlikely.

Going deep into this year's playoffs will be huge for the development of this team. That shouldn't be undervalued. If that means not getting a return for trading JVR, that's the 'cost of doing business' as they say.

 

[Kin]

Going deep into this year's playoffs will be huge for the development of this team. That shouldn't be undervalued.

It also shouldn't be overvalued. Or valued, really. It's an oft-repeated contention but I don't think there's enough evidence behind it to drive decision making to a significant degree. 

Although, again, trading JVR doesn't mean you can't also add pieces.

 

[dappleganger]

Going deep into this year's playoffs will be huge for the development of this team. That shouldn't be undervalued.

It also shouldn't be overvalued. Or valued, really. It's an oft-repeated contention but I don't think there's enough evidence behind it to drive decision making to a significant degree. 

Although, again, trading JVR doesn't mean you can't also add pieces.

I think there's value in playoff experience, but yes, probably shouldn't overvalue anything. I look at young Pittsburgh and Chicago teams in the last 10 years who had some playoff success before winning their first cup. I guess that's what I'd want the Leafs to emulate.


Here's the last 10 Stanley Cup winners and how they fared the year before winning the cup:

2016: Pittsburgh - Previous Season: Stanley Cup winner.

2015: Pittsburgh - Previous Season: 1st Round.

2014: Chicago - Previous Season: Conference Finals.

2013: Los Angeles - Previous Season: Conference Finals.

2012: Chicago - Previous Season: 1st Round.

2011: Los Angeles - Previous Season: 1st Round.

2010: Boston - Previous Season: 2nd Round.

2009: Chicago - Previous Season: Conference Finals.

2008: Pittsburgh - Stanley Cup Finals.

2007: Detroit - Conference Finals.

2006: Anaheim - Conference Finals.


The last team to miss the playoffs and win the cup were the 2005 Carolina Hurricanes, coming off the lockout year.