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What's wrong with Auston Matthews?

I will say one thing after watching him live on Friday night. Small sample size of course. And this knowing he has never been an explosive skater to begin with. But he looks rather ordinary out there with his speed. I'm sure whatever ailed him, and likely still is, is mitigating his ability to play as we are used to seeing him. He was almost invisible out there.
 
Peter D. said:
I will say one thing after watching him live on Friday night. Small sample size of course. And this knowing he has never been an explosive skater to begin with. But he looks rather ordinary out there with his speed. I'm sure whatever ailed him, and likely still is, is mitigating his ability to play as we are used to seeing him. He was almost invisible out there.
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Saturday from most accounts he was worse. Had 2 assists but a minus 2, horrible even taking face-offs and looked at times disengaged. I've noticed it to seems like he's not skating great. Matthews at 75% is better than most guys healthy but in my opinion let him sit and hopefully get back to 100%.
 

Berube comments on Matthews "improving" - which confirms his coach doesn't think he is 100% back yet.
Berube also thought Matthews had a tougher time with the back to back - his first one since coming back.
So the coach is echoing some of the observations expressed here but does not seem very concerned about it.
It is just part of the process for him returning from his injury.
 
cw said:

Berube comments on Matthews "improving" - which confirms his coach doesn't think he is 100% back yet.
Berube also thought Matthews had a tougher time with the back to back - his first one since coming back.
So the coach is echoing some of the observations expressed here but does not seem very concerned about it.
It is just part of the process for him returning from his injury.
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Interesting.
 
The Hockey News: ‘I’m Feeling Better Every Game’: Maple Leafs’ Auston Matthews Focused On Building Momentum Following Each Game After Upper-Body Injury
“Yeah, physically, like I said the other day, I'm feeling better every game. So that's positive. I just want to continue to take those steps and build my game. And obviously, let a couple of games kind of slide. So I want to get back on the winning track,” Matthews said.

“I'm getting there,” Matthews explained. “I mean, it's tough. You jump back right into the games. After being out, I think it takes a little bit of time. It seems like the first couple of games you're kind of running on adrenaline just because you've been out and you're so excited to be back.”

“And then, obviously, the wear and tear and the grind of playing a lot kind of comes back. So it takes a little bit of time to really get your full conditioning and everything back. But, like I said, every day, every game, feeling better,” he added.
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Matthews acknowledges it himself
 
I'm not sure what the issues are but he still doesn't look 100% back to me.
Having said that, I haven't seen anything that would lead me to conclude he can't get there.
I suspect it is timing - finding his groove - things like that.
 
His skating looked not only slow but labored in the first. Missing the net on two of three breakaways was also not "nothing." And later in the 3rd he didn't even try to win one faceoff or else couldn't contest it. It was weird. All that said, he did get markedly better overall as the game went on and the OT winner was him at top form.
 
ZBBM said:
His skating looked not only slow but labored in the first. Missing the net on two of three breakaways was also not "nothing." And later in the 3rd he didn't even try to win one faceoff or else couldn't contest it. It was weird. All that said, he did get markedly better overall as the game went on and the OT winner was him at top form.
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That bolded sentence - I felt the same way
He's 'off' - not firing on all cylinders. I doubt he would miss all three last year.
 
After this stretch of playing bad teams, it seems Matthews is getting some vigor back. He looked great against Buffalo in the last two periods. Against Detroit he was still a bit shaky. He had some flashes of brilliance, yet that goal that started with a pass to his boots and a giveaway that he chased half heartedly was out of character. Watch the replay to see what I mean. But the general trend is he's getting his mojo back.

I still would like to see him on a line with Domi, which seems to invigorate him. The stacked L1 and L2 lines and PP1 are all indicating too many elite cooks in the kitchen is hurting production.
 
Ozzie said:
After this stretch of playing bad teams, it seems Matthews is getting some vigor back. He looked great against Buffalo in the last two periods. Against Detroit he was still a bit shaky. He had some flashes of brilliance, yet that goal that started with a pass to his boots and a giveaway that he chased half heartedly was out of character. Watch the replay to see what I mean. But the general trend is he's getting his mojo back.

I still would like to see him on a line with Domi, which seems to invigorate him. The stacked L1 and L2 lines and PP1 are all indicating too many elite cooks in the kitchen is hurting production.
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Yeah, he fired a couple of bullets yesterday. I hope he's getting back to normal.
 
Matthews with 1.38 expected goals yesterday, 1.2 expected goals on Saturday, 0.92 expected goals on Thursday and 0.92 expected goals on Tuesday

Overall he has 2G over that stretch with an xG of 4.42 over his last 4 games. The chances are all there and Magic Mike brought it up during the game yesterday but Matthews is the kind of goal scorer who should be outproducing his xG because of the quality of his shot.

He still doesn't seem back to himself but I think we are seeing more signs that he's getting there.

My concern with the PP still stands that they need to keep things moving and I feel like sometimes Marner and Rielly especially keep passing back and forth near the blueline hoping for Matthews to magically stop getting covered. When Marner is roving all over the zone causing chaos the PP looks far more dangerous.
 
I suspect this is something that will require some sort of surgery to fix, and they're trying to manage it so he can still play this season. He probably doesn't want to end his season injured when it's his first as captain. If this gets any worse they'll be forced to shut him down and then the Leafs are screwed.
 
There is nothing absolutely definitive to pin it down.

Maybe this one is kind of stupid
edge.nhl.com

NHL EDGE Puck and Player Tracking Statistics - Skaters

NHL EDGE Puck and Player Tracking Statistics for skaters including skating speed, skating distance, shot speed, shot location, and zone time.
edge.nhl.com edge.nhl.com
You compare his percentile last year to this
65th percentile was worst last year. This year he's below 50th in 3 categories.
His skating and shooting are off.

I was listening to Mirtle talk about Leafs drop in offence.
I do not recall the numbers precisely, but Matthews goals per game explained more than 50% of the team falloff.

I was listening to some other radio show. They remarked his shooting percentage was way down - about roughly half of last year

Hits/60 about 50% of last yr
Giveaways/60 2 times last yr
Takeaways/60 33% of last yr
+/- -2 this yr, +31 last yr
ppg 72% of last yr
shoot% 18.7% last yr, 10.4% this yr

Any one of these things you might ignore. Not enough data, etc.

But collectively, it is a little overwhelming.
Couple that with what Auston & his coach have said.
No one is imagining it. He is not 100%
There is clearly something significantly wrong.
 
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