What's wrong with Auston Matthews?

[Guilt Trip]

Facts schmacts.

Facts don't lie and I got tired a few years back of reading people saying Dubas screwed us with all these NMCs so I checked it out and it simply isn't true. He did nothing new to the Leafs. Too much money, bad trades, is a different debate.

 

[mr grieves]

McDavid, Crosby, Malkin, Pasta, Barkov, B Tkachuk, Stamkos, Hedman, Tavares, Toews, Kane, Getzlaf, Perry all had NMCs in year 5, the final year for most, of their 2nd deal. Malkin had a NMC in all 5 years. Tavares signed a 6 year deal and had protection the last 2. McD/Tkachuk got theirs in years 5-8. Marner/Pasta/Barkov protection in years 5,6. Matthews in year 5. Willy only had a M-NTC in year 6 of his deal so Dubas only handed out 2 NMCs in years 5 to the Leafs elite, again pretty normal for your high end stars.

In most of these cases, the players had a lot more early career playoff success or their AAVs were a lot lower. There are exceptions, I'm sure, but in general the Leafs contract AAVs + playoff records + NMCs make their RFA contracts outliers. I think if we made a table with the data points listed above that would be borne out.

But we oughtn't lose sight of the forest here. Players with NMCs and NTCs that kick in in the last year or two get moved before that happens when it's not working out. Even when the clause is in the contract, teams don't often see their stars walk away and leave them nothing. For that to happen, you need some spectacular mismanagement.

 

[ZBBM]

I have a new theory: he's playing tentatively because he's in mourning for the old Auston. What I mean is that he's struggling psychologically to come to grips with the fact that he will never be as good as he was. I think we have a long enough timeline of evidence to conclude that whatever injury he's dealing with, he's not getting over it. The question now is, can he come to accept that he needs to remake his game so he can at least play confidently at a lower, but still good, level? Perhaps become more of a JVR net-front guy, for example.

It's not simply a matter of losing confidence. It's deeper than that. It's the shock and dismay of seeing your skills go south when you should be in your prime.

My point is there are two related components to the inconsistent player we see now: the physical, the mystery injury (my best guess: back problem), and a pretty deep psychological one.