What's wrong with Auston Matthews?
- Thread starter ZBBM
- Start date
ZBBM
Well-known member
Last night is just another data point that something is really off. The media has clammed up about it, but it is the elephant in the room. He can't handle pucks, whiffs on shots, etc.
The reality is that he's not a 1C right now. This will never happen, but on the merits he needs to drop to 2C to get some easier matchups. I get Tavares has huge D liabilities as 1C....
Anyway, all the tinkering with lineups is going to come to nothing in the playoffs when your star player is not anywhere close to his usual play. They should have addressed this months ago in hope that he could come back at full strength in time for the post-season — or else to be ready for next season.
The reality is that he's not a 1C right now. This will never happen, but on the merits he needs to drop to 2C to get some easier matchups. I get Tavares has huge D liabilities as 1C....
Anyway, all the tinkering with lineups is going to come to nothing in the playoffs when your star player is not anywhere close to his usual play. They should have addressed this months ago in hope that he could come back at full strength in time for the post-season — or else to be ready for next season.
Ozzie
Active member
Maintenance Days....Load Management.... Injured Reserve. Whatever it takes. Matthews needs to be at the best he can be for Game 1. This is just as important as Leafs finishing first and playing a WildCard.
Assuming Florida finishes first, I'd rather play Tampa with a rested Matthews than grind him into the ground.....maybe finish first....and play Ottawa with Matthews playing like he's doing now...... or even worse.
Assuming Florida finishes first, I'd rather play Tampa with a rested Matthews than grind him into the ground.....maybe finish first....and play Ottawa with Matthews playing like he's doing now...... or even worse.
Frank E
Active member
Auston Matthews has 1 goal in the last 5 games. That's a 16 goals/82 game pace, and over the past 5 games it's a S% of 4.8%.
Here's his S% over the past 5 seasons:
2020-2021 = 18.5% (41g in 52 games)
2021-2022 = 17.2% 60g in 73 games)
2022-2023 = 12.2% (that was his problematic season but still managed 40 goals in 74 games)
2023-2024 = 18.7% (69 goals in 81 games)
2024-2025 = 11.5% (currently at 23 goals and his S% is dropping)
He's not getting better playing through this right now, he's getting worse.
Here's his S% over the past 5 seasons:
2020-2021 = 18.5% (41g in 52 games)
2021-2022 = 17.2% 60g in 73 games)
2022-2023 = 12.2% (that was his problematic season but still managed 40 goals in 74 games)
2023-2024 = 18.7% (69 goals in 81 games)
2024-2025 = 11.5% (currently at 23 goals and his S% is dropping)
He's not getting better playing through this right now, he's getting worse.
ZBBM
Well-known member
And the goals he's scoring are ones that any competent player can score. No butt-elevating OMG goals as in years past.
Nobody here is a doctor, ok well one is, but nobody here has really any idea what medical issue Matthews is currently playing through. But like you said whatever it is and whatever plan the Leafs have him on currently clearly isn't working. Matthews playing like this basically guarantees an early playoff exit. Something has to be done to get him closer to 100% and I just can't see how constantly playing him over 20 minutes a night including top PK minutes is going to do that.
Matthews took two extended breaks this season. After his first one he scored 5 goals in 8 games. After his second one he scored 9 goals in 10 games. That's 14 goals in 18 games coming off breaks. That means he has 9 goals in the other 32 games this season. Maybe this is being a little too simplistic but it's hard to think that another break wouldn't benefit him again.
The team should carve out a 10 game, 24 day stretch late in the season and place him on LTIR for that. Maybe make it so he has a game or two at the end of the season to play in to shake off some rust prior to immediately going into the playoffs. That will also give the Leafs obviously a good chunk of cap space so they can bring up some reinforcements if they want to give any other players (Tanev and McCabe specifically) a game or two off heading into playoffs.
Sure, it'd suck to lose Matthews for a 10 game stretch and maybe that ends up costing us the division, but I'd take a healthier Matthews in playoffs over the top seed any day of the week.
Ozzie
Active member
I think the best AM34 goal this year was a bank shot to hit an open net.
Those are some good thoughts.
Even from the management perspective: if Matthews comes back from that break and scores a bunch of goals in the first round or two of the playoffs, the Leafs would have a better chance of winning a round or two or going deep. If the Leafs lose in the first round, Treliving would probably be in a win or else last year. Marner's probably gone. Tough sell to sign UFAs and win the following year.
It's going to be tough to win the division either way - one path with an ailing/less effective Matthews, the other without him in the lineup for some number of games. But maybe if he sits for a while the rest of the team rises to the occasion as they have so often done.
Why is he still doing penalty killing though, I'd like to see an end to that right now.
Why is he still doing penalty killing though, I'd like to see an end to that right now.
It's really strange because as they noted, every so often something happens - usually he gets hit and gets mad - and he briefly looks like the old Matthews for a few shifts or a period. But otherwise, he mostly seems rather unengaged and is barely visible a lot of the time. Tough to tell how much of it is physical and how much is mental, probably some combination. Maybe more than one injury, as he has had wrist and back/shoulder issues. But they are right, the team is really built around him (and of course Nylander/Marner/Tavares) and if he isn't playing like a top 5 player in the league, the team is in serious trouble.
Arn
Well-known member
I find it hard to be over critical of him at this point. He’s been by a mile the best leaf I’ve seen over the last few seasons. I’m inclined based on that to give him the benefit of the doubt for one poor season and anticipate him having some kind of surgery or announce,ent over the summer saying he had a chronic issue that couldn’t be fixed in season.
However, if we get to the summer and there’s no surgery or injury or semi decent explanation, and then next season kicks off and he has a slow start… then I’d worry.
However, if we get to the summer and there’s no surgery or injury or semi decent explanation, and then next season kicks off and he has a slow start… then I’d worry.
Andy007
Well-known member
To echo others, I think he really would benefit from a long break. With a healthy D and G tandem, the Leafs could probably manage up front without Matthews in the short term, and let him come back "healthy" in the playoffs:
McMann Tavares Marner
Knies Laughton Nylander
Robertson Domi Jankrok
Holmberg Kampf Lorentz
McMann Tavares Marner
Knies Laughton Nylander
Robertson Domi Jankrok
Holmberg Kampf Lorentz
Ozzie
Active member
We watch the players and so our comments - praise and blame - are usually directed at them. Yet the issue with Auston Matthews is not him. It's the management of his incredible talent. The Toronto Maple Leafs management is inept in its management to be decisive and bold to produce a winner.
They surrounded this generational talent with the same broken architecture for almost a decade and it appears that this summer management and ownership will be groveling at the feet of Marner to resign him. It will be another failure. Defaulting to the easy and tepid "Run It Again" mentality of hope instead of bold decisions and action to fix problems. And Matthews will end his career in Toronto 3 years from now as a loser. On a team that totally underachieved their potential.
And currently, no one in Maple Leaf management seems bold enough to tell Matthews to sit down and take a break. No more 3 minute shifts. Take him off the PK. And actually force him to stop playing games to recuperate.
They should have also been firm with 4 Nations and sat him down during, or at least after. Winning management like Panthers would have done that and even taken the LTIR bonus.
The Toronto Maple Leafs have mismanaged this phenom. They are currently mismanaging this phenom. And they will mismanage this phenom into the future.
The best thing he can do is sign somewhere else if he wants to salvage his career beyond cookie hunts.
They surrounded this generational talent with the same broken architecture for almost a decade and it appears that this summer management and ownership will be groveling at the feet of Marner to resign him. It will be another failure. Defaulting to the easy and tepid "Run It Again" mentality of hope instead of bold decisions and action to fix problems. And Matthews will end his career in Toronto 3 years from now as a loser. On a team that totally underachieved their potential.
And currently, no one in Maple Leaf management seems bold enough to tell Matthews to sit down and take a break. No more 3 minute shifts. Take him off the PK. And actually force him to stop playing games to recuperate.
They should have also been firm with 4 Nations and sat him down during, or at least after. Winning management like Panthers would have done that and even taken the LTIR bonus.
The Toronto Maple Leafs have mismanaged this phenom. They are currently mismanaging this phenom. And they will mismanage this phenom into the future.
The best thing he can do is sign somewhere else if he wants to salvage his career beyond cookie hunts.
Bill_Berg
Well-known member
I think Treliving's attempt to move Marner for Ratanen is a good sign that they do want to change this team. I have little hope for this season, but I hold out hope that next season they will change things, create depth, and use Matthews' next three years wisely.
Now if this team surprises in the playoffs this year maybe things change.
Now if this team surprises in the playoffs this year maybe things change.
Ozzie
Active member
If you saw the Matthews interview on Amazon's Calgary game he looked terrible. Dark spots under his eyes, deflated, and looked similar to when he got sick during the Boston Playoff Series.
He scored, and he barely pumps his fist like the old days. It seems to me that he has some chronic illness. This may explain his "mystery" reason for lack of performance and deflated spirit and his disappearance to an unknown therapy in Germany. It may not be only a sports injury going on here that some chronic illness and requires longer term treatment.
He scored, and he barely pumps his fist like the old days. It seems to me that he has some chronic illness. This may explain his "mystery" reason for lack of performance and deflated spirit and his disappearance to an unknown therapy in Germany. It may not be only a sports injury going on here that some chronic illness and requires longer term treatment.
Another weird hit and couldn’t go any longer. That’s as detailed as I’m going to get.
Arn
Well-known member
Interesting…
(From https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/62...n-auston-matthews/?source=user_shared_article )
herman
Well-known member
Here's the money line: "Matthews’ worst is still almost anyone else’s best." Like John Tavares is having his 3rd best season with the Leafs and is getting outpaced by a Matthews looking like he needs an IV every night.
Where it concerns the Leafs is when Matthews alone is like 25% of the offense and a playdriving numbers and he dips.
So far this season Matthews has 27 G out of the team's 217 (12.4% of team, 0.501/Gm), and 61 pts out of the team's 577 (10.5% of team, 1.151/Gm) in 53 GP, which is yeah, that's a very good number for most players.
Paced out to the rest of the season (14 games left), presuming he plays them all at the same rate he would have 34 G and 77 pts.
The Leafs as a team is on pace for 261 G and 695 pts, so Matthews would be about 13% of the goals, 11% of the points.
Last season, Matthews was 69G & 107 pts (23.2% of G, 13.6% of pts)
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