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2025-26 Toronto Maple Leafs General Discussion

They need to be down to top 4, if they are sitting in 5 and someone from 6 on wins the lottery they drop to 6 and Boston drafts their next super star.
Or they need to be 16th and give Boston the worst possible pick.

Anyway, sell sell sell, wishing they trade Rielly and keep OEL.
 
Frank E said:
I wonder what Woll would return?
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He's one guy I would keep. You know how hard it is to find a goalie? The leafs haven't had a homegrown goalie since Potvin. And the one they did get, they threw away in one of the worst trades in franchise history.

They could have got something for stolarz had they not signed him to that stupid extension.
 
Joe S. said:
I would love if they found a way to ship him to Edmonton. Although I don't think they're stupid enough to take on a 4 year commitment.

I'd almost be willing to accept jarry in exchange. Only 2 years left on his contract.
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Not every move has to be done by next Friday. Some players may actually have more value in the offseason. Yes, teams typically overpay at the deadline, but that doesn't mean that they can't make good deals in the summer.

This isn't the sort of thing where they are going to have one good day from upper management and everything is suddenly going to be fixed. There is a lot of work involved in righting this ship. I'm just not sure that upper management of the Leafs understand that.
 
Joe S. said:
I would love if they found a way to ship him to Edmonton. Although I don't think they're stupid enough to take on a 4 year commitment.

I'd almost be willing to accept jarry in exchange. Only 2 years left on his contract.
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Problem with taking Jarry back is the Leafs can't keep there goaltenders next yet and Hildeby will have to clear waivers next year. One of the three needs to go before next season.
 
TEAMRecordPoint%Projected PointsLeafs Points Gained
Buffalo35-19-6.633104 points41 (.932 PT%)
Montreal33-17-9.636104 points41 (.932 PT%)
Detroit34-20-6.617101 points38 (.863 PT%)
Pittsburgh30-15-13.629103 points40 (.910 PT%)
NY Islanders34-21-5.608100 points37 (.841 PT%)
Boston33-21-5.60299 points36 (.818 PT%)
Vegas28-17-14.59397 points34 (.772 PT%)
Washington31-24-7.55691 points28 (.636 PT%)
Anaheim32-23-3.57895 points32 (.727 PT%)
Columbus29-21-8.56993 points30 (.681 PT%)
Utah31-24-4.55992 points29 (.659 PT%)
Ottawa29-22-8.55992 points29 (.659 PT%)
Edmonton28-24-8.54189 points28 (.636 PT%)
Seattle28-22-9.55190 points27 (.614 PT%)
Philadelphia27-21-11.55190 points27 (.614 PT%)
Florida30-26-3.53488 points25 (.568 PT%)
TORONTO27-24-9.52586 points---------
Nashville27-24-8.52586 points23 (.523 PT%)
Los Angeles24-21-14.52586 points23 (.523 PT%)
San Jose28-25-4.52686 points23 (.523 PT%)
New Jersey29-29-2.50082 points19 (.431 PT%)
Winnipeg23-26-9.47478 points15 (.318 PT%)
CALGARY24-28-6.46676 points13 (.273 PT%)
CHICAGO22-28-9.44974 points11 (.250 PT%)
NY RANGERS23-29-7.44974 points11 (.250 PT%)
ST LOUIS21-29-9.43271 points8 (.182 PT%)
VANCOUVER18-34-7.36460 points-3

The discussion around the draft lottery and the Leafs finding a way to get into the Bottom 5....ugh.

The Leafs 22 games left in this disaster of a season. A total of 44 points. Obviously lots can change over this stretch with 3 point games and teams have been going on hot/cold stretches all season but based on the current standings and how Point% would project over 82 games this is what the Leafs will roughly need to do to fall behind each team. The best record the Leafs could achieve now would be 107 points if they went 22-0-0.

Vancouver being 20 points behind the Leafs is pretty much uncatchable. The Leafs would have to lose out AND Vancouver would have to play better hockey to catch up and they have more selling to do.

St. Louis at 12 points back of the Leafs also seems very unlikely to be able to catch up. The Leafs would basically need to go 4-18-0 down the stretch to match their current pace (.182 PT%)

The Rangers at 10 points back would need the Leafs to go 5-16-1 to catch them (.250 PT%)

The Blackhawks at 10 points back would need the Leafs to go 5-16-1 to catch them (.250 PT%)

The Flames at 9 points back would need the Leafs to go 6-16-0 to catch them (.273 PT%)

So the Leafs would have to play historically bad hockey to naturally fall into the defaulted top 5. The Leafs are currently in a dreadful stretch of 3-8-1 hockey since they had that up-and-down road trip. That's a .292 PT%. Now they are playing even worse hockey the last three games but I figure some of that is going to be the team giving up, some of it is going to be tight sticks as players await the deadline, some of it is we are genuinely just a bad team, and a big part of it is Berube is a fucking terrible coach.
 
So that leaves us with the Draft Lottery.

There are two draws in the draft lottery. No team can climb more than 10 spots in the draft. The first draw happens and then everyone is reseeded with the first draft pick locked in. Based on points the Leafs currently sit 22nd in the league. Based on point percentage they are 25th (8th).

STANDINGSODDS of 1stODDS of 2ndODDS of 3rdODDS of 4thODDS of 5th
125.518.855.7
213.514.130.741.7
311.511.27.839.729.8
49.59.50.315.444.6
58.58.60.324.5
67.57.70.2
76.56.70.2
86.06.20.2
95.05.20.2
103.53.70.1
113.03.20.1
12---5.10.1
13---4.2>0
14---3.2>0
15---1.1

*Credit to tankathon.com for the stats.

So if we go by raw point total the Leafs (11th) have a 6.3% percent chance of keeping their pick. If we go by point percentage they have a 12.4% chance of keeping it.

If they managed to find a way to totally collapse and fall in the top 5
Finish 5th - 41.7% chance of keeping their pick
Finish 4th - 79.3% chance of keeping their pick
Finish 3rd - 100% chance of keeping their pick

So realistically the Leafs have to play at best .250 hockey the rest of the way to have a chance at keeping their pick. Every team in the bottom 5 right now is playing worse hockey than their season point percentage over the last 10 games. So .250 hockey probably still isn't enough to do it.
 
Guilt Trip said:
Yup, worrying about that pick is a waste of time. Focus needs to be on the deadline and then playing as well as they can to move the pick lower. That's it. Why Tre didn't make it a protected top 10 is beyond.
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Well he did for next year, so it may be get this year over with, and then next year you could try and bottom out, but then that moves the pick for Philly to 2028, which may not be that bad if you have started to come out of this by then.
 
rdowdall said:
Not every move has to be done by next Friday. Some players may actually have more value in the offseason. Yes, teams typically overpay at the deadline, but that doesn't mean that they can't make good deals in the summer.

This isn't the sort of thing where they are going to have one good day from upper management and everything is suddenly going to be fixed. There is a lot of work involved in righting this ship. I'm just not sure that upper management of the Leafs understand that.
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I agree but I don't trust Treliving with any moves of consequence.
 
Joe S. said:
I agree but I don't trust Treliving with any moves of consequence.
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Oh me either. Fortunately selling at the deadline is easier than buying. You wait for the best offer and then you pull the trigger. As long as he is targeting NHL ready prospects, things shouldn't be so bad. That's why I like the Oilers as a target. They have three interesting prospects, and they have needs the Leafs can fill.

Once you get into the offseason, it's how can you maximize for the future, while still playing well right now.
 
Joe S. said:
That's true too. Hadn't thought of that either.

Speaking of jarry, I'm really still surprised that there was no salary retention with that trade.
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Masterclass by Dubas. He dumped Jarry's $5.375M x 2.5 years and Samuel Poulin(25 year old bust) for Kulak, a 2nd in 29 and Skinner. He then traded Kulak to get Girard and a 2nd in 27 from the Avs. Wouldn't be shocked if he moved either of those guys.
So Jarry and a bust prospect turned into Skinner, Girard and 2-2nds.
rdowdall said:
Well he did for next year, so it may be get this year over with, and then next year you could try and bottom out, but then that moves the pick for Philly to 2028, which may not be that bad if you have started to come out of this by then.
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The Leafs are not bottoming out next year. No chance MLSE will allow that and you don't do that when you have a guy like 34 on the team. They will/should sell off this year, regroup and go again next year. Now if it goes south, you def aim for the bottom but you're doing a full rebuild then because Matthews will want out.
 
Guilt Trip said:
Masterclass by Dubas. He dumped Jarry's $5.375M x 2.5 years and Samuel Poulin(25 year old bust) for Kulak, a 2nd in 29 and Skinner. He then traded Kulak to get Girard and a 2nd in 27 from the Avs. Wouldn't be shocked if he moved either of those guys.
So Jarry and a bust prospect turned into Skinner, Girard and 2-2nds.

The Leafs are not bottoming out next year. No chance MLSE will allow that and you don't do that when you have a guy like 34 on the team. They will/should sell off this year, regroup and go again next year. Now if it goes south, you def aim for the bottom but you're doing a full rebuild then because Matthews will want out.
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I don't think they will intentionally try to bottom out. I think they will try and get back on track this year, hopefully with some smart moves.

However, if things do go sideways, and Matthews does want out, I don't think that is the end of the world. If he wants out, it probably means he would agree to be moved somewhere. In theory he should bring in a haul. Way more than say Kessel did. So you have a low pick, and whatever you can get from Matthews to build around. You should still have a pretty good goaltending core in Woll and Hidleby. Knies should still be around. I imagine McCabe is still here. Same with Cowen. Nylander may want out too at that point, or maybe he wants to stay, doesn't matter either way. Even though things are bleak right now, I think they can turn this around. It's kinda like the two years before Quinn and Joeseph showed up. I think they are in better shape than any of the years between 2006 and 2013.
 
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