2011 Blue Jays/MLB Thread
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GhostofPotvin29
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Saint Nik said:
Which is...
Kin
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Potvin29 said:
That he was, past tense, a highly prized prospect whose stock has plummeted considerably and now is faced with legitimate questions as to his ability to succeed. Whether or not Drabek will ever learn to locate his curveball for strikes is a huge problem and it doesn't look like it's just a MLB problem as his AAA ERA was actually worse than his big league stats.
GhostofPotvin29
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Saint Nik said:
I think his AAA results were a direct result of the struggles he had last season in the bigs. Next year will be a big year to see if it was an aberration or not, as his stats the rest of the way in his career appear quite good.
Kin
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Potvin29 said:
I think that too but, I guess, the difference is that I think that's actually fairly telling. I think he learned last year that he needs to be able to throw for strikes more consistently and that big league hitters won't be fooled the way minor league ones will. I think he tried to revamp his approach and really struggled. I wouldn't say the door is shut on him succeeding in the bigs, much in the same way I wouldn't say that about Filatov, but he's a guy with big obstacles right now.
Potvin29 said:
Stats wise I think there are positives and negatives. His walk rate, and as a result his WHIP, has never been great. His minor league ERA is 4.01. His K/BB is pretty rough.
It's not all bad, he's turned in some solid seasons, but it's hard for me to look at his record and say that he got knocked around out of the blue in Toronto. It looks more like a case of issues he's always had coming up to bite him.
GhostofPotvin29
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Is AA the one that is considered a pitchers league?
Just by looking at his minor league numbers, before his AAA meltdown last season, you have to go back to 2007 when he was 19 in A-ball to his last minor league season with an ERA above 3.64. I mostly liked his AA stats though, which is why I asked above - he had far more innings in AA than anywhere else, and had pretty good numbers. But if it is a pitchers league I'll take them with a bigger grain of salt.
Just by looking at his minor league numbers, before his AAA meltdown last season, you have to go back to 2007 when he was 19 in A-ball to his last minor league season with an ERA above 3.64. I mostly liked his AA stats though, which is why I asked above - he had far more innings in AA than anywhere else, and had pretty good numbers. But if it is a pitchers league I'll take them with a bigger grain of salt.
maplesyrup
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A blue Christmas without Yu. 
Oh well, let's see what happens now. A starter, lefty reliever, and another bat would be nice.
Oh well, let's see what happens now. A starter, lefty reliever, and another bat would be nice.
Kin
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Potvin29 said:
It's tough to say without looking at minor league park factors and I don't know where to find those if they exist. I looked at the last five years and the league wide ERA ranges from 3.89 to 4.21 while the American League's ERA, in the same span, ranges from 4.08 to 4.50. So it probably breaks a little towards the hitter.
Potvin29 said:
His AA numbers are ok, not great, and you still see some of the same issues popping up. His AA WHIP was 1.22 and his K/BB is 2.10. Those are pretty similar to Zach Stewart, who was traded without much of an uproar.
Just to contrast him to the guy I cited as highly touted, Matt Moore(who appeared a bit higher on BA's prospect list than Drabek ever did) had a AA WHIP of .938 and a K/BB of 4.68 with an ERA almost a full run lower.
So, again, the Filatov comparison jumps back at me. Filatov has scored 30 or so goals in 80 some-odd AHL games which are pretty decent minor league numbers. They're not holy-moly can't miss prospect numbers which, again, is what I used to differentiate the young guys on the Jays staff from, say, Tampa's.
Chev-boyar-sky
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Well let's see what he signs for.
Reports are he'll be looking for 12M per for at least 5 years (apparently he currently makes 6M per on the field, and 6M in endorsements).
If he signs for 60M over 5 years, and there's a 51M posting fee it'll be hard for him to pitch at a level that's worth the average of that amount (22.2M per).
I think that money can be better spent on players with proven MLB track records.
Would it have been nice to get him? Sure. At the price it's likely to cost? Can't say I blame the Jays for losing out.
Reports are he'll be looking for 12M per for at least 5 years (apparently he currently makes 6M per on the field, and 6M in endorsements).
If he signs for 60M over 5 years, and there's a 51M posting fee it'll be hard for him to pitch at a level that's worth the average of that amount (22.2M per).
I think that money can be better spent on players with proven MLB track records.
Would it have been nice to get him? Sure. At the price it's likely to cost? Can't say I blame the Jays for losing out.
Kin
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Chev-boyar-sky said:
I think that's holding Darvish to a standard that's pretty unfair. When a player like Mat Latos gets dealt to the Reds he just has to prove himself worthy of his salary, it's not like he has to do that and compensate for what the Reds gave to the Padres(picks instead of cash). If they pay him #2 or #3 starter money that's all he really needs to do to be successful.
Peter D.
Moderator
Perhaps it's not the best of comparisons, but to me, this situation was similar to that of this past summer with the Leafs and Richards. The teams wanted the players. In fact, I'd go as far to say that the teams needed those players. But in the end, having lost out of them may not have been worst thing in the world seeing the money spent (I'll go with the wide reports that Darvish will in total cost $115-130M), as down the road they could become regrettable contracts.
I would have liked to seen Darvish as a Blue Jay, for, if anything, to prove Rogers is willing to spend money. We've kept hearing this magical $120M figure, yet they've yet to put their money where their mouth is. The division is more open than it's been in years, there is another wild card set to be added, yet the Blue Jays seem content to let another year go by to "build". And that's going to be harder with the new restrictions on drafting and international signings.
This was the perfect off-season for the Blue Jays to capitalize on things. There is a buzz around the team that hasn't been seen in years. They have these beautifully minted jerseys. They have some really good talent. Fans are almost dying to go back to the ballpark, but they need a reason to do so. Crazy as it may be, this whole Darvish thing seems to have knocked the wind out of the sails of the fan base. It's as if we don't trust/believe the team will ever do anything to get over the hump.
Now, I understand there is a few months left before spring training. But this off-season has been a collosal flop thus far. A "cheap" closer and marginal outfielders just won't cut it. I want every reason to spend money on merchandise and buy a whack of tickets, but they are just not giving it to me.
I would have liked to seen Darvish as a Blue Jay, for, if anything, to prove Rogers is willing to spend money. We've kept hearing this magical $120M figure, yet they've yet to put their money where their mouth is. The division is more open than it's been in years, there is another wild card set to be added, yet the Blue Jays seem content to let another year go by to "build". And that's going to be harder with the new restrictions on drafting and international signings.
This was the perfect off-season for the Blue Jays to capitalize on things. There is a buzz around the team that hasn't been seen in years. They have these beautifully minted jerseys. They have some really good talent. Fans are almost dying to go back to the ballpark, but they need a reason to do so. Crazy as it may be, this whole Darvish thing seems to have knocked the wind out of the sails of the fan base. It's as if we don't trust/believe the team will ever do anything to get over the hump.
Now, I understand there is a few months left before spring training. But this off-season has been a collosal flop thus far. A "cheap" closer and marginal outfielders just won't cut it. I want every reason to spend money on merchandise and buy a whack of tickets, but they are just not giving it to me.
Chev-boyar-sky
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Saint Nik said:
Fair enough. Although I still think fee enters into if it's a good deal or not (not whether the player is successful).
For example Kessel is successful, but the picks (cash in this sense) look nearly as good and that's only the 1/3rd that's at the NHL level. They're taken into account when judging the overall transaction.
I guess I'm saying 110M (and that's on the low end) for 5 years of a #2 or #3 starter would end up being a bad deal for a team on a budget.
Kin
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Peter D. said:
It's not crazy at all. In fact, and this might sound crazy, but this whole off-season actually kind of has me regretting the uniform changes. Changing up the unis but delivering another 75-85 win team on the field will take a lot of the sheen off their fancy new duds. If you're going to try and sell people on things being different, things kind of have to be different.
Kin
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Chev-boyar-sky said:
Financially? It's almost impossible to say that though. I don't know what signing Darvish might have meant for the Jays in terms of the Japanese market if he'd been a good quality #2 starter. Enough to make up for for, say, the 30-40 million difference there between the cost of signing him vs. the market cost for a #2 or #3 pitcher? Maybe.
I mean, if the money's there, then I don't think we know enough about the financial impact Darvish could have on the club to hold him to a higher standard than his salary.
Chev-boyar-sky
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How good/bad would Gio be in a park like the Dome?
maplesyrup
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My feeling is Fielder could probably do much better than what the Jays would likely offer. Anyway, I've learnt a valuable lesson this week in not getting to hung up on rumour and speculation as it pertains to the Jays under AA.
bustaheims
Active member
There hasn't been much chatter linking him to the Jays, but, with Oswalt recently making it known that he's looking for a 1 year deal to prove his health and raise his value, he seems like a really good fit for the Jays. He wasn't offered arbitration, so there's no draft pick cost, and, taking on the beasts of the AL East successfully is a great way to show the rest of the league you're healthy and haven't lost your game. On top of that, he's a perfect candidate to receive compensation next winter under the new structure - if he's not dealt at the deadline. It seems like a win for all parties.