2015 Toronto Blue Jays thread

[Kin]

Those are all fine and dandy retorts as long as you forget your original Reyes post that I was referring to and then make up an argument that I allegedly made against Saunders.

I didn't forget it at all. The numbers there are incontrovertible. Reyes had WAR's over 3 last year according to both Fangraphs and Baseball Reference on the strength of his hitting. His defense grades as being bad, yes, but not to the point where the metrics say he's not a valuable player so long as he can hit the way he did last year.

Other than that, your "the metrics are wrong because I say so" position doesn't really have much to go with. 

Saunders is injury prone. He will injure himself shagging a fly ball, or throwing to cutoff man, or tripping over a storm drain. That is just the type of player he is and there are many players like that. Pointing out that he is injury prone was met with much disagreement, as if making any type of criticism against an AA move has to be completely obliterated. And as evidenced by how awful this team has been under AA, the blowback against any little criticism is confounding.

Well, you're barking up the wrong tree there with regards to my motivations. I don't like the job AA has done, happily would endorse someone saying he should be shown the door and think that most of his big moves were not only bad with hindsight but looked crappy at the time(and I'd have said so before now, look a few pages back for my criticism of AA's drafting/developing record).

So my point regarding Saunders has nothing to do with defending AA, just with the facts as I see them. Anyone can get injured tripping over a storm drain, just like anyone could have what happened to Stroman happen to them. A freak accident(baseball fields don't usually have exposed storm drains) isn't indicative of something inherent within someone's ability to be healthy over the course of a season just the way if Saunders had been hit by a car it wouldn't have proven him to be "injury prone".

 

[Andy007]

Stroman is, what, 23? 24? And he already has a full season of games played under his belt. Saunders turns 29 this year and hasn't played a full season yet. The fact that Saunders got sidelined by a freak accident is irrelevant; he is always injured and has more stints on the DL than Joffrey Lupul. That was my original issue with Saunders and his being out of the lineup for, oh, four months and counting this year doesn't do anything to alleviate that issue, whether he trips on a sprinkler or gets hit by a car or not.

P.S. I have made not one comment about metrics. I'm not sure how you can attribute a quote to me saying that metrics are wrong if I never made that claim or assumption.

 

[Kin]

The fact that Saunders got sidelined by a freak accident is irrelevant;

It's really not. By definition a freak accident can happen to anyone, regardless of prior injury history.

P.S. I have made not one comment about metrics. I'm not sure how you can attribute a quote to me saying that metrics are wrong if I never made that claim or assumption.

You got into this questioning my statement that Reyes was a valuable player last year despite his sub par defense and that his offense was "good" last year. Both statements of mine, which are really just reflections of his WAR, are more or less impossible to dispute unless you completely disregard that as a metric. You don't need to say, word for word, that you don't put stock in the metric when you disagree with its conclusion.

 

[Andy007]

The fact that Saunders got sidelined by a freak accident is irrelevant;

It's really not. By definition a freak accident can happen to anyone, regardless of prior injury history.

P.S. I have made not one comment about metrics. I'm not sure how you can attribute a quote to me saying that metrics are wrong if I never made that claim or assumption.

You got into this questioning my statement that Reyes was a valuable player last year despite his sub par defense and that his offense was "good" last year. Both statements of mine, which are really just reflections of his WAR, are more or less impossible to dispute unless you completely disregard that as a metric. You don't need to say, word for word, that you don't put stock in the metric when you disagree with its conclusion.

Well I think WAR is useful but it's flawed and subjective. And WAR has a ton of limitations in regards to how it calculates defense.

But I don't think it hurts to take other factors into consideration. There are other metrics; there are numerous stats and watching a lot of baseball and seeing individual performances in the proper context can provide useful information as well. When you take everything into consideration (including his 22 million yearly intake and penchant, like Michael Saunders, for injuries) I just don't see much worth here.

 

[Kin]

But I don't think it hurts to take other factors into consideration. There are other metrics;

There are but by just about all of them, wOBA or WPA or whatever you like, Reyes still grades out as having had a pretty good offensive season for a Shortstop last year. That's the thing about WAR, it's really just a shorthand for using other metrics but aggregated and expressed in a positional context.

I agree that Reyes' salary complicates his role on the team but to me that's largely a separate issue. As is, if he hits like he did last year then he adds a legitimate amount of value to the team, even if it's not great price performance.

 

[Andy007]

But I don't think it hurts to take other factors into consideration. There are other metrics;

There are but by just about all of them, wOBA or WPA or whatever you like, Reyes still grades out as having had a pretty good offensive season for a Shortstop last year. That's the thing about WAR, it's really just a shorthand for using other metrics but aggregated and expressed in a positional context.

I agree that Reyes' salary complicates his role on the team but to me that's largely a separate issue. As is, if he hits like he did last year then he adds a legitimate amount of value to the team, even if it's not great price performance.

I don't know, I guess I just can't overlook some of the classic statistics. I see a guy who can't really get on base that well, has almost no power and who can be frustratingly non-selective at the plate. But a player who has all of these deficiencies but can run really well, steal a ton of bases and get a huge number of plate appearances can put up strong WAR's because of how it's calculated. So I remain largely underwhelmed about how much value he really adds.

 

[Kin]

I don't know, I guess I just can't overlook some of the classic statistics. I see a guy who can't really get on base that well, has almost no power and who can be frustratingly non-selective at the plate. But a player who has all of these deficiencies but can run really well, steal a ton of bases and get a huge number of plate appearances can put up strong WAR's because of how it's calculated. So I remain largely underwhelmed about how much value he really adds.

It's not about overlooking traditional stats though. It's just putting them in the context of his being a SS.

Among the guys listed at MLB.com as their team's regular SS, here's where Reyes ranked in the American league last year in various traditional stats:

Batting Average - 1st
On-Base Percentage - 1st
Slugging Percentage - 2nd
Doubles - 4th
Homeruns - 4th
Stolen Bases - 2nd
Runs - 1st
RBI - 4th
Total Bases - 2nd

So virtually every single major offensive category Reyes is in the top 5 and in the slashline stats he's either first or second in all three. If you expand it to all of baseball, Reyes' slash line statistics rank 2nd/4th/6th.

So again, saying that he "can't get on base well" or that he's got "almost no power" is really only true if you look at it in a context where the position he plays essentially doesn't matter at all which, ultimately, might be your problem with WAR because that's what it does. It compares him to other SS's and in that way, he hit really well last year.

 

[Andy007]

And if you look at the NL last year Reyes goes down to 10th in HR 9th in RBI and 5th in the OPS and Slugging.

That being said, I am surprised to see how bad the SS numbers were in the AL last year. And it's a shame they got the worst of Reyes and not his Mets days; those are some pretty sweet stats.

 

[Kin]

And if you look at the NL last year Reyes goes down to 10th in HR 9th in RBI and 5th in the OPS and Slugging.

Sure. So he's a speedy lead-off man who finished 5th in all of baseball at his position in OPS+SLG and was a phenomenal percentage basestealer. That's a good offensive year by any definition. That the NL had more power hitting, middle of the order SS than the AL doesn't detract from his value. Reyes was unquestionably the best hitting SS in the American League last year and one of the top 5 in baseball.

So, again, I'll stand by "good".

That being said, I am surprised to see how bad the SS numbers were in the AL last year.

That's really just a historical reality of the position though. Of the four guys with better OPS than Reyes last year, only one of them was a significant defensive contributor(Peralta) and accordingly, Peralta had the 6th highest WAR among position players in the entire NL last year.

If you can find a SS who can hit .270, get on base at about the league average rate and is a major contributor defensively...that player is basically a hall of famer. Cal Ripken came third in the MVP voting one year with a .718 OPS(and deservedly so). The same year, Ozzie Smith had a 7.3 WAR despite having a sub .700 OPS and Ozzie got into the Hall of Fame with a .666 OPS for his entire career.

For a SS to have a terrific offensive year, they don't need to put up offensive numbers that knock your socks off devoid of context.

 

[draeko17]

Heading out soon to drive down to Seattle, taking in tonight and tomorrow's games with my daughter, my son and his girlfriend.  Hutch vs. Felix....oh my.....  this is your time to shine, Drew! 

Mother's Day gift from my kids and my ex.... I'm pretty spoilt.  Go Jays! 

 

[draeko17]

Fun couple of games in Seattle, hopefully they pull out a win this afternoon to take the series.  Lot's of BlueJay fans in attendance all games, the atmosphere is fantastic. 

Nice three up, three down for Sanchez, he looked good yesterday as well.

 

[CarltonTheBear]

Just for those who may not have noticed, there's been a new subsection of the forum opened up devoted to Blue Jay talk: http://www.tmlfans.ca/community/index.php?board=26.0

You might find a bit more discussion of the team over there.

 

[CarltonTheBear]

Just for those who may not have noticed, there's been a new subsection of the forum opened up devoted to Blue Jay talk: http://www.tmlfans.ca/community/index.php?board=26.0

You might find a bit more discussion of the team over there.