2015 Toronto Blue Jays thread

[Andy007]

Jays getting smoked again. Down 8-1 to the Tigers after losing game one. They sit barely over .500. Maybe AA can sign another minor league FA?

 

[Kin]

Hey, so the people who really got worked up over who plays the first few innings of the All-Star game vs. the next few innings of the all-star game seem to have gotten Donaldson elected to the starting line-up.

Donaldson sets record for ASG votes

 

[hockeyfan1]

Well, congratulations to Donaldson.  It's nice that a Blue Jay set an ASG voting record.

 

[Kin]

I know it's a little unfair because of what happened to Stroman but today's game really highlighted what's so frustrating with the Blue Jays.

Right now, who is the best player on this team that the Jays drafted and developed? Osuna? Pillar? Meanwhile the Royals are sending homegrown player after homegrown player to the All-Star game.

This team's drafting/developing record has been awful.

 

[L K]

Another wasted year from the Jays.  A bad pitching staff.  A coach who sticks by the horrendous defense of Reyes and Bautista can't keep his cool in close games.  I'm leaning towards the Jays selling pieces off rather than allowing AA to mortgage the future for a 1-year rental.

EDIT: To put in proper thread.

This just isn't a good team.  A phenomenal offense and a pitching staff that is subpar.  The defense could be exceptional too but Reyes is a massive black hole at this point and Gibbons seems to feel that he needs protecting.  I don't really care what Reyes did 5 years ago with the Mets.  His defense has never really been on level with the Jays and has rapidly declined in the last two years.

 

[cabber24]

Another wasted year from the Jays.  A bad pitching staff.  A coach who sticks by the horrendous defense of Reyes and Bautista can't keep his cool in close games.  I'm leaning towards the Jays selling pieces off rather than allowing AA to mortgage the future for a 1-year rental.

EDIT: To put in proper thread.

This just isn't a good team.  A phenomenal offense and a pitching staff that is subpar.  The defense could be exceptional too but Reyes is a massive black hole at this point and Gibbons seems to feel that he needs protecting.  I don't really care what Reyes did 5 years ago with the Mets.  His defense has never really been on level with the Jays and has rapidly declined in the last two years.

I agree Reyes' defense is horrid. They don't need his offense therefore they don't need him. He is liability defensively and has solely been responsible for multiple losses this year. Jays need better defense and pitching. They do not need a defensive liability for a slightly better bat in the line up.

 

[hockeyfan1]

I can't believe why the Jays keep Reyes around.  Watching him make defensive miscues leaves one shaking their heads, so to speak.  Either he can do better than that or he's a spent piece.

I haven't entirely given up on the Blue Jays just yet, even though  same problems seem to plague them -- great offence, terrible defence/pitching.  Seriously, what are the farm teams churning out?

 

[Kin]

His defense doesn't really grade out as being as bad as you guys are making it. It's not good but it's really not the problem you're making it out to be if he can get his offense back to where it was last year.

 

[GhostofPotvin29]

His defense doesn't really grade out as being as bad as you guys are making it. It's not good but it's really not the problem you're making it out to be if he can get his offense back to where it was last year.

Seems like focusing on the "big mistake" and letting it cloud every reasonable view of his overall game.  See also McCabe, Bryan.

EDIT:

It's hockey related, and you can't access the post anymore since he was hired by Edmonton, but Tyler Dellow at one time posted a good piece on it:

If someone asked me what I think the biggest failing of the eyeball test is, I?d respond that it?s the emphasis on the big mistake. There are gigabytes of information contained in a hockey game. So much information that I think it?s difficult for anyone to take it in and organize it rationally. The way that our brains deal with that is by focusing on the big mistake.

What is the big mistake? The big mistake is the play that leads to a goal against. When we see a player who?s made a bunch of big mistakes in a row, we get down on him.

 

[L K]

His defense doesn't really grade out as being as bad as you guys are making it. It's not good but it's really not the problem you're making it out to be if he can get his offense back to where it was last year.

Seems like focusing on the "big mistake" and letting it cloud every reasonable view of his overall game.  See also McCabe, Bryan.

EDIT:

It's hockey related, and you can't access the post anymore since he was hired by Edmonton, but Tyler Dellow at one time posted a good piece on it:

If someone asked me what I think the biggest failing of the eyeball test is, I?d respond that it?s the emphasis on the big mistake. There are gigabytes of information contained in a hockey game. So much information that I think it?s difficult for anyone to take it in and organize it rationally. The way that our brains deal with that is by focusing on the big mistake.

What is the big mistake? The big mistake is the play that leads to a goal against. When we see a player who?s made a bunch of big mistakes in a row, we get down on him.

It has very little to do with that.  His range has declined significantly and it's also the relative difference between Goins and Reyes in late game situations.  Obviously Reyes' errors over the last few weeks have been glaring but my issues with Reyes' defense precede it.

http://www.beyondtheboxscore.com/2015/2/17/8043221/blue-jays-jose-reyes-defense-decline

 

[Kin]

It has very little to do with that.  His range has declined significantly and it's also the relative difference between Goins and Reyes in late game situations.  Obviously Reyes' errors over the last few weeks have been glaring but my issues with Reyes' defense precede it.

Reyes hasn't really been a positive defensive presence for about 8 years and his "range" as described by things like DRS or UZR hasn't significantly decreased over the last five years.

If the Jays could find someone who'd be a 3+ win player at SS elsewhere, sure, but putting Goins there doesn't do that.

 

[L K]

It has very little to do with that.  His range has declined significantly and it's also the relative difference between Goins and Reyes in late game situations.  Obviously Reyes' errors over the last few weeks have been glaring but my issues with Reyes' defense precede it.

Reyes hasn't really been a positive defensive presence for about 8 years and his "range" as described by things like DRS or UZR hasn't significantly decreased over the last five years.

If the Jays could find someone who'd be a 3+ win player at SS elsewhere, sure, but putting Goins there doesn't do that.

Just to be clear, as much as I dislike Reyes, I'm not really advocating the Jays jettisoning him outright.  I'd just rather see them use a guy like Goins in late game defensive situations.  I do think the net value of Goins defensively is worth that swap after you get your 3+ at bats out of Reyes earlier in the game.

 

[Kin]

Just to be clear, as much as I dislike Reyes, I'm not really advocating the Jays jettisoning him outright.  I'd just rather see them use a guy like Goins in late game defensive situations.  I do think the net value of Goins defensively is worth that swap after you get your 3+ at bats out of Reyes earlier in the game.

Well, ok, so in a 162 game schedule how many balls do we figure get hit to the Shortop in the 8th and 9th innings? 100? 200? The majority of those are probably routine plays. But, sure, there are a number of runs you're maybe losing there over the course of the season vs. Reyes' bat in those innings.

Still, that's really a "this team is close, we just need to tweak things" sort of solution and not a "Holy god, this team's pitching staff is on fire" sort of solution.

 

[L K]

Just to be clear, as much as I dislike Reyes, I'm not really advocating the Jays jettisoning him outright.  I'd just rather see them use a guy like Goins in late game defensive situations.  I do think the net value of Goins defensively is worth that swap after you get your 3+ at bats out of Reyes earlier in the game.

Well, ok, so in a 162 game schedule how many balls do we figure get hit to the Shortop in the 8th and 9th innings? 100? 200? The majority of those are probably routine plays. But, sure, there are a number of runs you're maybe losing there over the course of the season vs. Reyes' bat in those innings.

Still, that's really a "this team is close, we just need to tweak things" sort of solution and not a "Holy god, this team's pitching staff is on fire" sort of solution.

Oh, no doubt.  It's why I'm fully in favour of trading off guys this year rather than having AA spend our top pitching prospects to get a rental of Jeff Samardzija or a Papelbon/Hamels combo.

I don't see Buehrle coming back with the Jays next year.  I think he either picks a team closer to home or retires.  I also think that the Jays should try and find a team that might bite on Dickey or buy out him out next year and re-do the rotation.

I just find it disappointing that a team with a bunch of flaws isn't doing everything it can to win games.  Maybe those handful of plays that Goins makes only amount to a swing of 1-3 wins over a year at best but it's still wins you are giving up needlessly. 

 

[Kin]

I just find it disappointing that a team with a bunch of flaws isn't doing everything it can to win games.  Maybe those handful of plays that Goins makes only amount to a swing of 1-3 wins over a year at best but it's still wins you are giving up needlessly.

I don't think anyone's individual defense short of Andrelton Simmons is going to win you 3+ games a season, especially not just when you're limiting it to late inning defensive stuff. That might swing a game or two randomly here or there but you could say the exact same thing about Reyes' bat in those later innings too.

 

[Andy007]

His defense doesn't really grade out as being as bad as you guys are making it. It's not good but it's really not the problem you're making it out to be if he can get his offense back to where it was last year.

His offense was good last year? No power and, despite having blazing speed, posted a .328 OBP and a low .700 OPS. How does that cancel out his terrible defense and complete lack of range?

 

[Kin]

His offense was good last year?

Yeah. A 4.8 OWAR by Baseball Reference and enough for a 3.4 fWAR despite the subpar defense.

Not world beating or anything but good? Pretty comfortably, yes.

 

[Andy007]

His offense was good last year?

Yeah. A 4.8 OWAR by Baseball Reference and enough for a 3.4 fWAR despite the subpar defense.

Not world beating or anything but good? Pretty comfortably, yes.

The question wasn't whether his offense was good last year, but that is was so good that is overcomes his subpar defense. That's pretty debatable. With his offense being much worse this year, he is near the point of overall liability.

On a completely unrelated topic; Michael Saunders, the guy who apparently doesn't have injury problems, should begin a rehab assignment next month. 30 MLB at-bats this year. But man, his WAR during 250 at-bats a season ago sure was great.

 

[Kin]

The question wasn't whether his offense was good last year, but that is was so good that is overcomes his subpar defense. That's pretty debatable.

Well, leaving aside the fact that the question I quoted literally was whether or not his offense was good last year...

The best available metrics we have say his offense was very, very good for a SS last year and the "debate" would essentially have to be looking at his offensive value removed of any and all position specific context(If you look around the AL East, for example, a .700 OPS has Reyes in second place among SS with a 70 point edge on #3) but, heck, if you're not inclined to give WAR any credence at all there's probably no convincing you on that front.

With his offense being much worse this year, he is near the point of overall liability.

That's true. Not hitting the way he has he's very near to being basically a replacement level player. However, like I said, last year his bat made him a 3-3.5 win player.

On a completely unrelated topic; Michael Saunders, the guy who apparently doesn't have injury problems, should begin a rehab assignment next month. 30 MLB at-bats this year. But man, his WAR during 250 at-bats a season ago sure was great.

On a similarly unrelated topic; Marcus Stroman who also doesn't have injury problems, is probably out for the whole year.

Your argument was that Saunders body couldn't stand up to the rigors of a major league baseball season, not that his knees were particularly susceptible to storm drains.

 

[Andy007]

The question wasn't whether his offense was good last year, but that is was so good that is overcomes his subpar defense. That's pretty debatable.

Well, leaving aside the fact that the question I quoted literally was whether or not his offense was good last year...

The best available metrics we have say his offense was very, very good for a SS last year and the "debate" would essentially have to be looking at his offensive value removed of any and all position specific context(If you look around the AL East, for example, a .700 OPS has Reyes in second place among SS with a 70 point edge on #3) but, heck, if you're not inclined to give WAR any credence at all there's probably no convincing you on that front.

With his offense being much worse this year, he is near the point of overall liability.

That's true. Not hitting the way he has he's very near to being basically a replacement level player. However, like I said, last year his bat made him a 3-3.5 win player.

On a completely unrelated topic; Michael Saunders, the guy who apparently doesn't have injury problems, should begin a rehab assignment next month. 30 MLB at-bats this year. But man, his WAR during 250 at-bats a season ago sure was great.

On a similarly unrelated topic; Marcus Stroman who also doesn't have injury problems, is probably out for the whole year.

Your argument was that Saunders body couldn't stand up to the rigors of a major league baseball season, not that his knees were particularly susceptible to storm drains.

Those are all fine and dandy retorts as long as you forget your original Reyes post that I was referring to and then make up an argument that I allegedly made against Saunders.

Saunders is injury prone. He will injure himself shagging a fly ball, or throwing to cutoff man, or tripping over a storm drain. That is just the type of player he is and there are many players like that. Pointing out that he is injury prone was met with much disagreement, as if making any type of criticism against an AA move has to be completely obliterated. And as evidenced by how awful this team has been under AA, the blowback against any little criticism is confounding.

But good job pointing out the Stroman injury. It makes absolutely no sense but that's what you're good at: providing meaningless analogies.