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2016 Lead up to the Trade Deadline thread

bustaheims said:
Same with Hunwick - though, if he's not being used in a similar role next year, that could be an issue.
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I think that applies to quite a few guys is all. If we figure that next year the Leafs will add Nylander and Marner, at least, how likely is it that Holland gets 2 minutes of PP time a night? Or that Bozak is the team's 2nd line center?

Like you say, there's no urgency I suppose but I'd still be working the phones trying to take advantage of the deadline mindset that does inflate values, especially in a year where so many teams are in the hunt for those last few spots.
 
Nik the Trik said:
I think that applies to quite a few guys is all. If we figure that next year the Leafs will add Nylander and Marner, at least, how likely is it that Holland gets 2 minutes of PP time a night? Or that Bozak is the team's 2nd line center?
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Well, in the case of those 2 specifically, I don't think Holland has a ton of trade value any way, and I don't think Bozak's value changes much between now and the draft, as the UFA crop at centre is extremely weak after Stamkos and Staal. Komarov would be the other guy on that list I'd be concerned about, but I'm not sure there'll be much change in his usage next season - he'll probably still be a top 6 winger, with PK and PP time. His production may drop a little, but it'll still probably be good enough that it won't have much impact, and that's assuming the Leafs don't move him at the draft. I don't think his value changes all the much between now and then, either.
 
bustaheims said:
Well, in the case of those 2 specifically, I don't think Holland has a ton of trade value any way, and I don't think Bozak's value changes much between now and the draft, as the UFA crop at centre is extremely weak after Stamkos and Staal. Komarov would be the other guy on that list I'd be concerned about, but I'm not sure there'll be much change in his usage next season - he'll probably still be a top 6 winger, with PK and PP time. His production may drop a little, but it'll still probably be good enough that it won't have much impact, and that's assuming the Leafs don't move him at the draft. I don't think his value changes all the much between now and then, either.
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The UFA market is only one market force though. Another, probably a more significant one, is that there are simply more teams willing to make trades where they shake things up. Regardless of an ability to actually contend, there's no signal of surrender if you trade a top 9 forward for prospects at the draft the way there is at the deadline and after a season ends and 29 teams don't win the Stanley Cup, I think a lot more teams are looking to make lateral moves as well. Teams look to cut cap obligations and begin to look forward at who internally might be able to fill a role next season.

If you look at the trades made last off-season I think what you see are some instances of very good players getting moved for futures(Dougie Hamilton, Phil Kessel, Ryan O'Reilly) and you see sort of mid-tier guys being moved laterally or for cap-friendly returns(TJ Oshie, Carl Hagelin, Patrick Sharp). What you don't see much of is mid-tier guys getting moved for good picks/prospects the way you can at the deadline.
 
I'm trying to figure out some of the most likely potential trading partners and Carolina's name popped up. They're just 2 points out of a playoff spot, but they've got 4 teams separating them and 8th place. They've missed the playoffs for 6 straight seasons, so there's probably a bit of pressure now to get in seeing how close they are. They have the 4th best possession numbers in the league, but are 24th in GF and 21st in GA.

So goaltending was the first thing I thought of. Eddie Lack has a .891 Sv% and Ward is at .905. Ward's a UFA and it doesn't sound like he's going to be sticking around, so maybe something like Reimer for Ward, a 2nd rounder, and some type of conditional pick based on if Reimer re-signs with them? We'll likely need another goalie too as I doubt the Leafs will want to go with Bernier and Sparks next season, so Ward could come back on a 1-year deal if he plays alright.

I could also see them having legit interest in Parenteau, but I'm not sure how much they'd want to spend on a scoring winger. Goaltending seems like a bigger need they would have to address one way or another.
 
Reimer to Carolina does make a ton of sense. The Canes would be a very good team if they were getting quality goaltending.

Maybe Parenteau and Reimer for Ward, their 1st (lottery protected, I guess - maybe just top 5-10 protected), and a 3rd/equivalent prospect?
 
Well, we know Edmonton is looking for a good defenseman.

I keep thinking that there's a trade in there somewhere.  I think Chiarelli is going to chase a playoff spot.
 
bustaheims said:
Reimer to Carolina does make a ton of sense. The Canes would be a very good team if they were getting quality goaltending.

Maybe Parenteau and Reimer for Ward, their 1st (lottery protected, I guess - maybe just top 5-10 protected), and a 3rd/equivalent prospect?
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I don't think that they're in a spot yet where giving up their 1st for rentals is something they'll even remotely consider, that's why I hesitated to add Parenteau like that. Maybe swap out PAP for Komarov, who still has term on his deal.
 
CarltonTheBear said:
I don't think that they're in a spot yet where giving up their 1st for rentals is something they'll even remotely consider, that's why I hesitated to add Parenteau like that. Maybe swap out PAP for Komarov, who still has term on his deal.
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That's why there'd be protection on it or conditions based on them making the playoffs/how far they go in the playoffs, etc. I mean, if we're giving them a starting goalie and a top 6 winger, and they do some damage in the playoff? I expect a 1st round pick in return for that, at least.
 
bustaheims said:
That's why there'd be protection on it or conditions based on them making the playoffs/how far they go in the playoffs, etc. I mean, if we're giving them a starting goalie and a top 6 winger, and they do some damage in the playoff? I expect a 1st round pick in return for that, at least.
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That starting goalie and top-6 forward have some strings attached though. One's injury prone and inconsistent and the other could have been had for free+cheap last summer. Don't get me wrong, I've said before I think both could bring back 2nd rounders but teams are generally very protective of their 1sts. Even if you make it conditional on them making the playoffs it'll still likely be in the 15-19 range.
 
CarltonTheBear said:
That starting goalie and top-6 forward have some strings attached though. One's injury prone and inconsistent and the other could have been had for free+cheap last summer. Don't get me wrong, I've said before I think both could bring back 2nd rounders but teams are generally very protective of their 1sts. Even if you make it conditional on them making the playoffs it'll still likely be in the 15-19 range.
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True, but they also have LA's 1st round pick this year. So, there's definitely potential for something to be worked out involving a 1st round pick - it just may involve some complicated conditions and some potential for additional late round picks to be added, or something along those lines.
 
bustaheims said:
True, but they also have LA's 1st round pick this year. So, there's definitely potential for something to be worked out involving a 1st round pick - it just may involve some complicated conditions and some potential for additional late round picks to be added, or something along those lines.
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Yeah, I forgot about LA's pick. If that's the pick they're moving it might make them a little more open to it, but I still have doubts. And to be clear, I'm talking about this strictly from a Carolina perspective. If there was a team in more of a win-now mode who needed a goalie and a top-6 winger then I could see them potentially interested in moving their 1st for that package. I just don't think that Carolina is in a position to make that type of splash.

They'd probably be more interested in the cheaper Boyes option.

edit: Or like I said, someone with term like Komarov.
 
CarltonTheBear said:
Yeah, I forgot about LA's pick. If that's the pick they're moving it might make them a little more open to it, but I still have doubts. And to be clear, I'm talking about this strictly from a Carolina perspective. If there was a team in more of a win-now mode who needed a goalie and a top-6 winger then I could see them potentially interested in moving their 1st for that package. I just don't think that Carolina is in a position to make that type of splash. They'd probably be more interested in the cheaper Boyes option.
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I don't know. I feel like the Canes might be feeling some pressure to get back into the playoffs. With the recent changes in their front office and all, they may be willing to make that kind of splash, as long as there are the Leafs would agree to the kind of conditions that makes it a lower risk move.
 
I got one...polak to the pens for the 2nd from teh winnik deal back plus removing the conditions on the first next year...so their at least getting a first for sure.  plus maybe some salary back.
 
bustaheims said:
CarltonTheBear said:
Yeah, I forgot about LA's pick. If that's the pick they're moving it might make them a little more open to it, but I still have doubts. And to be clear, I'm talking about this strictly from a Carolina perspective. If there was a team in more of a win-now mode who needed a goalie and a top-6 winger then I could see them potentially interested in moving their 1st for that package. I just don't think that Carolina is in a position to make that type of splash. They'd probably be more interested in the cheaper Boyes option.
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I don't know. I feel like the Canes might be feeling some pressure to get back into the playoffs. With the recent changes in their front office and all, they may be willing to make that kind of splash, as long as there are the Leafs would agree to the kind of conditions that makes it a lower risk move.
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I have a hard time seeing anyone giving up a first for a few months of pap(sort of a top six winger but not necessarily) and james reimer who has trouble staying healthy.
 
sneakyray said:
I have a hard time seeing anyone giving up a first for a few months of pap(sort of a top six winger but not necessarily) and james reimer who has trouble staying healthy.
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The Canes are getting ~.900 goaltending so far this season. Even if Reimer only gets into half their games the rest of the way, he'd represent a HUGE upgrade - probably enough to get them into the playoffs. As for Parenteau, players with similar production that were traded at recent deadlines returned at least a 2nd round pick - and, outside of a poor season with the Habs last year, PAP has a pretty solid history of offensive production. He is absolutely a 2nd line winger. The two together shoudl return at least a 1st round pick, and if not, they should be trade separately.
 
but last year it was apparently like pulling teeth to get a first for franson and santorelli.  and now reimer and pap are worth it.  I just think that even if pap will get you a second if the best dman available barely got you a first teams just dont pay as much for goalies.
 
sneakyray said:
but last year it was apparently like pulling teeth to get a first for franson and santorelli.  and now reimer and pap are worth it.  I just think that even if pap will get you a second if the best dman available barely got you a first teams just dont pay as much for goalies.
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Most breakdowns of the deal had it as Franson for the 1st and Santorelli for Leipsic. And it couldn't have been too difficult to get done as it was accomplished, if memory serves, weeks before the deadline.
 
Nik the Trik said:
Most breakdowns of the deal had it as Franson for the 1st and Santorelli for Leipsic. And it couldn't have been too difficult to get done as it was accomplished, if memory serves, weeks before the deadline.
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Yeah, it was well in advance of the deadline. The report there was more that the Leafs found a deal they really liked, and took it instead of waiting until teams got a little more desperate closer to the deadline. We saw 5 1st rounders from the 2015 draft get moved in the ~2 weeks leading up to the deadline (one which was conditional, and ended up being this year's pick instead) and another moved earlier in the season. So, pulling teeth? Maybe well in advance of the deadline, but, in the few days before and deadline day? Teams that thought they could add players that might push them over the hump weren't concerned about moving them.
 
bustaheims said:
Nik the Trik said:
Most breakdowns of the deal had it as Franson for the 1st and Santorelli for Leipsic. And it couldn't have been too difficult to get done as it was accomplished, if memory serves, weeks before the deadline.
Click to expand...

Yeah, it was well in advance of the deadline. The report there was more that the Leafs found a deal they really liked, and took it instead of waiting until teams got a little more desperate closer to the deadline. We saw 5 1st rounders from the 2015 draft get moved in the ~2 weeks leading up to the deadline (one which was conditional, and ended up being this year's pick instead) and another moved earlier in the season. So, pulling teeth? Maybe well in advance of the deadline, but, in the few days before and deadline day? Teams that thought they could add players that might push them over the hump weren't concerned about moving them.
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well I certainly hope they can wrangle one more 1st rounder this year.  I just don't think that trade is going to include reimer or pap.  I do agree with you that pap should fetch a 2nd but I find it hard to judge reimers value because goalies don't bring large returns.

I think torontos best chance at a first this year are komarov...jvr if they decide to move him, same with kadri, gardiner and I think that bozak might have a small chance at bringing a late first if he continues to play well.
 
Nik the Trik said:
sneakyray said:
but last year it was apparently like pulling teeth to get a first for franson and santorelli.  and now reimer and pap are worth it.  I just think that even if pap will get you a second if the best dman available barely got you a first teams just dont pay as much for goalies.
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Most breakdowns of the deal had it as Franson for the 1st and Santorelli for Leipsic. And it couldn't have been too difficult to get done as it was accomplished, if memory serves, weeks before the deadline.
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yes, but I thought it was more like they better trade him while they're offering a first because it won't get any higher closer to the deadline.
 
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