2016 Lead up to the Trade Deadline thread

[rdowdall]

Yeah, but I think the parity is slowly eroding at the trade deadline day as well.  I may be wrong , but I was under the impression that last year was one of the slowest trade deadline days in recent history.  Also, their was some limited movement leading up to it.  This year, I think there have been three trades in total since the start of the season.  There is lots of chatter, but nothing seems to be happening.  It may be as you say, that they are waiting for the contracts to dwindle to the point where they have the least amount of impact on their caps.  Maybe that trend will continue, and the only time that deals get made during the season are on trade deadline day or a couple of days before hand.  It could be though that the price on rentals is dropping, and will continue to drop because the cost usually ends up being tipped in favour of the seller because only one team wins the cup.

There were 42 trades in from February 24th to March 2nd last season, making it one of the busiest deadline seasons in history.

So memory did serve me wrong

Here's a breakdown of trade's per month over the last five years:

	2010-2011	2011-2012	2012-2013	2013-2014	2014-2015
June	36	28	16	14	12
July	8	16	5	15	6
August	5	2	0 (LO)	0	0
September	1	3	0 (LO)	4	0
October	6	16	0 (LO)	3	4
November	10	8	0 (LO)	5	7
December	6	8	0 (LO)	4	6
January	8	12	12	8	5
February	49	37	13	8	18
March	1	1	16	34	29
April	0	1	30	0	0
May	1	1	0	1	0

             

So for this year so far:

June: 22
July:  10
August: 3
September:  3
October:  2
November:  1
December:  3
January:  11

Sources:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2010%E2%80%9311_NHL_transactions
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2011%E2%80%9312_NHL_transactions
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2012%E2%80%9313_NHL_transactions
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2013%E2%80%9314_NHL_transactions
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2014%E2%80%9315_NHL_transactions
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2015%E2%80%9316_NHL_transactions

So perhaps there hasn't been that much of a drop.  November and December were a little slower but August and September were a little higher.  The lockout skews some of the trades by month data.  Also, some of the data seems weird on Wikipedia.  They had trades taking place in the middle of March in a non lockout year, which shouldn't be possible.

 

[bustaheims]

Also, some of the data seems weird on Wikipedia.  They had trades taking place in the middle of March in a non lockout year, which should be possible.

Outside of the December roster freeze, trades can be made all year round. It's just players acquired after the deadline are not eligible to play in the NHL until the next season. You do still see the odd prospect transaction happening after the deadline, which explains the mid-March deals.

 

[rdowdall]

http://www.tsn.ca/prices-down-for-rental-players-at-trade-deadline-1.435674

Some quotes from the article:

"The market correction started last summer in free agency with a lot of players getting squeezed by the flat cap and now you're going to see teams protect their high picks and top prospects more than ever because that's gold now, that's the most important currency there is because of the new economic realities."

and

"Those might be third-round picks now," one Eastern Conference executive said. "You look at Toronto and all the UFAs they want to sell. They'll still sell a lot of them, but not for the kind of picks they could have got two years ago."

This was interesting:

"You have to tip your hat to the rebuilding Toronto Maple Leafs. A year ago they still had the long-term, high-paying contracts of Phil Kessel, David Clarkson and Dion Phaneuf on the books. Now all three are gone and all the Leafs had to retain in salary was $1.2 million from a year of Kessel's $8 million salary and cap hit. "That's pretty amazing the Leafs got out from all three of those deals without having to eat more salary. It really is," one Western Conference hockey executive said. On the flip side, I think Phaneuf will be a nice fit in Ottawa. He won't be The Man, he won't have to play up to being a No. 1 blueliner, which is unfair because he's not. He can fit in without a "C" on his sweater and not worry about anything else. Could be really good in Ottawa, in my mind."

 

[CarltonTheBear]

"That's pretty amazing the Leafs got out from all three of those deals without having to eat more salary. It really is," one Western Conference hockey executive said.

I bet this was Dave Nonis.

 

[caver]

"That's pretty amazing the Leafs got out from all three of those deals without having to eat more salary. It really is," one Western Conference hockey executive said.

I bet this was Dave Nonis.

;D ;D

 

[herman]

http://www.tsn.ca/prices-down-for-rental-players-at-trade-deadline-1.435674

Some quotes from the article:

"The market correction started last summer in free agency with a lot of players getting squeezed by the flat cap and now you're going to see teams protect their high picks and top prospects more than ever because that's gold now, that's the most important currency there is because of the new economic realities."

and

"Those might be third-round picks now," one Eastern Conference executive said. "You look at Toronto and all the UFAs they want to sell. They'll still sell a lot of them, but not for the kind of picks they could have got two years ago."

This was interesting:

"You have to tip your hat to the rebuilding Toronto Maple Leafs. A year ago they still had the long-term, high-paying contracts of Phil Kessel, David Clarkson and Dion Phaneuf on the books. Now all three are gone and all the Leafs had to retain in salary was $1.2 million from a year of Kessel's $8 million salary and cap hit. "That's pretty amazing the Leafs got out from all three of those deals without having to eat more salary. It really is," one Western Conference hockey executive said. On the flip side, I think Phaneuf will be a nice fit in Ottawa. He won't be The Man, he won't have to play up to being a No. 1 blueliner, which is unfair because he's not. He can fit in without a "C" on his sweater and not worry about anything else. Could be really good in Ottawa, in my mind."

I read that more like "the value of draft picks has gone up", rather than the price of rentals has gone down.

The GMs that would've thrown in 2nd rders have mostly been dismissed from their decision-making duties.

 

[Kin]

I read that more like "the value of draft picks has gone up", rather than the price of rentals has gone down.

The GMs that would've thrown in 2nd rders have mostly been dismissed from their decision-making duties.

It's probably both. In addition to the value of draft picks going up, I think a lot of smart GMs are realizing that trade-deadline pickups rarely have the impact that justifies their cost.

 

[herman]

I read that more like "the value of draft picks has gone up", rather than the price of rentals has gone down.

The GMs that would've thrown in 2nd rders have mostly been dismissed from their decision-making duties.

It's probably both. In addition to the value of draft picks going up, I think a lot of smart GMs are realizing that trade-deadline pickups rarely have the impact that justifies their cost.

That's a good point. I can't remember the last time a Cap-era rental made a significant impact beyond Marian Hossa x2 (hilariously coming second both times in the repeat match up).

 

[Kin]

That's a good point. I can't remember the last time a Cap-era rental made a significant impact beyond Marian Hossa x2 (hilariously coming second both times in the repeat match up).

Gaborik comes to mind with the Kings but that's a whole different class of player than the depth pieces we're talking about.

 

[herman]

That's a good point. I can't remember the last time a Cap-era rental made a significant impact beyond Marian Hossa x2 (hilariously coming second both times in the repeat match up).

Gaborik comes to mind with the Kings but that's a whole different class of player than the depth pieces we're talking about.

My takeaway is that teams should only rent Marians from Slovakia.

Yeah they're definitely not depth pieces.

Of our UFAs, I have the highest hope for Parenteau, and even then, it's realistically likely a mid/low second. If we end up with a glut of mid-draft picks, might as well spend them to offset the Lamoriello and Babcock signings. I don't think we're going in as heavily with the UFA rental route next season.

 

[Frank E]

That's a good point. I can't remember the last time a Cap-era rental made a significant impact beyond Marian Hossa x2 (hilariously coming second both times in the repeat match up).

Gaborik comes to mind with the Kings but that's a whole different class of player than the depth pieces we're talking about.

My takeaway is that teams should only rent Marians from Slovakia.

Yeah they're definitely not depth pieces.

Of our UFAs, I have the highest hope for Parenteau, and even then, it's realistically likely a mid/low second. If we end up with a glut of mid-draft picks, might as well spend them to offset the Lamoriello and Babcock signings. I don't think we're going in as heavily with the UFA rental route next season.

With a bunch of teams having a shot at the wildcard spots, acquiring some depth to be able to make a run at those spots might be pretty important for a team like Carolina, or Pittsburgh...Ottawa? 

I say this as opposed to the idea of them acquiring PAP to help them win a round of the playoffs. 

 

[bustaheims]

With a bunch of teams having a shot at the wildcard spots, acquiring some depth to be able to make a run at those spots might be pretty important for a team like Carolina, or Pittsburgh...Ottawa? 

I think that's going to be a motivator for a lot of teams this deadline. Within the next week or so, they're going to have to decide what kind of additions they might need to make to secure a playoff spot, and whether it's worth it to them - and then, get serious in terms of negotiating with teams that are looking to sell pieces. As much as there's potential for this year to be a soft one in terms of prices, with so many teams still fighting to secure a playoff spot, there's also potential for an arms-race of sorts, with teams feeling like they may need to make the first strike or make reactionary moves. It could be a very interesting deadline.

 

[Highlander]

with people like JFJ and Nonis still employed in management in the NHL anything is possible

 

[bustaheims]

with people like JFJ and Nonis still employed in management in the NHL anything is possible

Neither of them are decision makers.

 

[bustaheims]

Been slumming it at HFBoards on my lunch break, and thought there was one proposal that had some legitimacy to it. Cowen to Chicago for Bickell, either at the deadline or the draft. The Hawks need cap space, and this saves them from having to pay Bickell's $4M next season (~$3.1M if they bury him in the minors again), and they also get to take advantage of Cowen's buyout credit. They'd have to deal with a moderate cap hit of $750K in 17/18, but they have time to address it, and it's a very manageable number. They could also throw Cowen on waivers and stash him in the AHL for a little extra savings this season, and, if someone claims him? They only lose out on $650K in savings next season, avoid the overage in 17/18, and open up space to help them mitigate any bonus overages they may face for this season.

The Leafs would obviously be compensated with a pick (probably a 3rd rounder) and get a season to try to see if they can turn Bickell into a tradeable asset at the next deadline. They take on some cap, but, outside of the uncertain possibility of Stamkos, they won't really need it for next season, as they'll be filling out their roster with players on ELCs and cheap vets.

 

[WhatIfGodWasALeaf]

That's an interesting idea, I wonder if they could get a little more out of the Hawks than a 3rd rounder.

The Cowan credit plus the Bickell savings gives them 3.705 million in cap savings next year, that seems fairly significant for a team as close to the cap as they are.

Perhaps a 3rd rounder and an underrated prospect that perhaps Hunter likes.

 

[bustaheims]

Perhaps a 3rd rounder and an underrated prospect that perhaps Hunter likes.

Yeah, maybe. I was just trying to keep the return realistic. Maybe an additional conditional pick for 2017 based on if the Leafs can trade Bickell or what the Hawks end up doing with Cowen?

 

[rdowdall]

That's an interesting idea, I wonder if they could get a little more out of the Hawks than a 3rd rounder.

The Cowan credit plus the Bickell savings gives them 3.705 million in cap savings next year, that seems fairly significant for a team as close to the cap as they are.

Perhaps a 3rd rounder and an underrated prospect that perhaps Hunter likes.

The Leafs could save them 14.205 million in cap if they threw in Toews.

 

[hockeyfan1]

That's an interesting idea, I wonder if they could get a little more out of the Hawks than a 3rd rounder.

The Cowan credit plus the Bickell savings gives them 3.705 million in cap savings next year, that seems fairly significant for a team as close to the cap as they are.

Perhaps a 3rd rounder and an underrated prospect that perhaps Hunter likes.

The Leafs could save them 14.205 million in cap if they threw in Toews.

Not by any stretch of the imagination would that happen.  What would be a replacement for Toews?

 

[CarltonTheBear]

That's an interesting idea, I wonder if they could get a little more out of the Hawks than a 3rd rounder.

The Cowan credit plus the Bickell savings gives them 3.705 million in cap savings next year, that seems fairly significant for a team as close to the cap as they are.

Perhaps a 3rd rounder and an underrated prospect that perhaps Hunter likes.

The Leafs could save them 14.205 million in cap if they threw in Toews.

Not by any stretch of the imagination would that happen.  What would be a replacement for Toews?

You're right, we'd probably have to send Spaling their way too.