2016 Lead up to the Trade Deadline thread

[Kin]

Also, I really doubt Reimer is getting the Leafs much more than a second outside a supremely desperate gm. Lindholm? Aho and a first? Good grief.

I agree that Lindholm is a pipe dream, but Aho and a first? I could see it. Aho's an intriguing prospect, but far from a sure thing, and Carolina has two 1st round picks in this year's draft. For a team that should be desperate to earn a playoff spot, that's not exactly an unrealistic price to pay for the kind of upgrade in net Reimer could offer them - especially now that Ward is out with a concussion.

Just to be clear I didn't mean Lindholm or Aho + a 1st are likely returns for Reimer, just that if Carolina wants to make a serious upgrade in net they're going to have to make a serious offer and they don't really have a ton of high value prospects that maybe don't border on too high value(like Fleury or Hanifin).

 

[bustaheims]

Just to be clear I didn't mean Lindholm or Aho + a 1st are likely returns for Reimer, just that if Carolina wants to make a serious upgrade in net they're going to have to make a serious offer and they don't really have a ton of high value prospects that maybe don't border on too high value(like Fleury or Hanifin).

I know. I don't think it's likely, either, but Aho is definitely the type of prospect teams seem to move in deals, and with the situation in Carolina, who knows?

 

[Tigger]

Francis has been pretty clear that they need to build their depth and be a sustainable team, they have a couple decent goalie prospects, they're not trading Skinner for Reimer ( especially in a year where Jeff's overall game is the best it's been ). If Skinner is on the table, it'll likely be for a similar aged forward or defenseman. They're significantly under the cap ( but have been a cap team recently ) and have been acquiring draft picks. I suppose there is a way outside chance that they fold to pressure, but I don't think so.

Really? Francis hasn't publicly said "We're in a terrible situation. The team's up for sale with no serious interest and we haven't made the playoffs during Obama's Presidency. We're definitely open to making bad trades for a short term solution to stop our fans from continuing to bail on the team in droves".

Well then, it must not be true.

Careful, swig any harder on that hyperbole and your lamppost might offer no help on either front. If Karmanos is desperate to sell, he sure has put a strange price on that team, and yeah, Francis isn't going to say anything to hurt himself or the team, however he doesn't strike me as the type of guy who shines people on, when he says things like ''I look at this as a fresh start...I don't want to just kind of build a team that gets into the playoffs for one year. I would like to build it so that it's a very solid franchise and we can do it on a yearly basis.'', I believe him. Even just take the most self centred reasoning there, he's a part owner, he stands to do much, much better if the Canes can even just be a playoff team regularly. But hey, if you think they actually are desperate and are likely to make a trade like that, ok.

Also, I really doubt Reimer is getting the Leafs much more than a second outside a supremely desperate gm. Lindholm? Aho and a first? Good grief.

Teams who make goaltending deals around the deadline don't typically do so from a position of strength. Good goalies having good seasons don't tend to be available at the deadline. When you say that you doubt Reimer fetches more than a second that's based on...what? Reto Berra only fetching a 2nd when he was a 27 year old back-up with an .897 save percentage? Because I think Reimer has a slightly stronger case right now.

You could be right, it might be more, I don't think it'll be a lot more, as I said, and it won't be for Skinner or the, as you put it, unlikely combination of players you mentioned, the point of which I still don't understand when used in context with the player we were discussing, here's a player unlikely to be traded for Reimer, and here's more players and picks even more unlikely to be traded for him. Just get yourself a little 3hp motor and a canoe, you'll have way more fun.

 

[Tigger]

Also, I really doubt Reimer is getting the Leafs much more than a second outside a supremely desperate gm. Lindholm? Aho and a first? Good grief.

I agree that Lindholm is a pipe dream, but Aho and a first? I could see it. Aho's an intriguing prospect, but far from a sure thing, and Carolina has two 1st round picks in this year's draft. For a team that should be desperate to earn a playoff spot, that's not exactly an unrealistic price to pay for the kind of upgrade in net Reimer could offer them - especially now that Ward is out with a concussion.

C'mon, a first would be plenty to get that ball rolling, but would you pay a first or more for a soon to be unrestricted goalie with health issues? I don't think Carolina is nearly as desperate as some seem to think but I guess we'll see on that front but even so, you don't get both.

 

[Frank E]

Also, I really doubt Reimer is getting the Leafs much more than a second outside a supremely desperate gm. Lindholm? Aho and a first? Good grief.

I agree that Lindholm is a pipe dream, but Aho and a first? I could see it. Aho's an intriguing prospect, but far from a sure thing, and Carolina has two 1st round picks in this year's draft. For a team that should be desperate to earn a playoff spot, that's not exactly an unrealistic price to pay for the kind of upgrade in net Reimer could offer them - especially now that Ward is out with a concussion.

C'mon, a first would be plenty to get that ball rolling, but would you pay a first or more for a soon to be unrestricted goalie with health issues? I don't think Carolina is nearly as desperate as some seem to think but I guess we'll see on that front but even so, you don't get both.

I think the conversation with Carolina got started by the fact that their goalie went down...Ward.

And Carolina is one of those revenue conscious teams, they're only a few points out of a wildcard spot at this point, and perhaps then they'd be interested in a stop-gap solution to help put them in.

The Skinner thing is more about a guy that has never reproduced his production that got him that RFA contract at $5.75m per year. He's owed $6m real money per year until 2019.  He's also had some injury issues with his head, and is coming off of a 31 point season last season.  He's tracking about 43 points for this season, and had a 10 goal December, but is now back to producing about 3 goals per month in January.  I'm just thinking that $6mil is a fair chunk of change for that kind of production, especially on the cash-strapped Hurricanes. 

He'd be a guy the Leafs could roll the dice on becoming a better overall contributor with a fresh start and a new coach in his hometown...maybe.   

 

[Kin]

Careful, swig any harder on that hyperbole and your lamppost might offer no help on either front. If Karmanos is desperate to sell, he sure has put a strange price on that team, and yeah, Francis isn't going to say anything to hurt himself or the team, however he doesn't strike me as the type of guy who shines people on, when he says things like ''I look at this as a fresh start...I don't want to just kind of build a team that gets into the playoffs for one year. I would like to build it so that it's a very solid franchise and we can do it on a yearly basis.'', I believe him. Even just take the most self centred reasoning there, he's a part owner, he stands to do much, much better if the Canes can even just be a playoff team regularly. But hey, if you think they actually are desperate and are likely to make a trade like that, ok.

Leaving aside your impressions of Ron Francis and whatever they're based on I don't know that I agree that his single digit equity stake in the Hurricanes is a lot likelier to be more valuable if he decides to break things down and try to rebuild again(try being the operative word there) than if he were to take some shot at triage on the body of his fan base. Again, his solid marks in Public Relations 101 are very evident from not declaring his intentions to put short term success over the juggernaut he plans on building but the practicum tends to be a trickier business.

(Also, I'm not pulling the Hurricanes for sale stuff out of nowhere, it's been widely reported and acknowledged that they're up for sale without a lot of interest

http://www.sportsnet.ca/hockey/nhl/hurricanes-sale-remains-in-limbo-as-team-seeks-buyers/)

Even then I still don't think Skinner is the prize you're making him out to be or that you've really made the case that a trade for Reimer, which would include negotiation rights for a few months(and Reimer doesn't strike me as the type of player who can't be signed just by hitting a number), is as bad a move as you're making it out to be for Carolina either in the long or short term. 

Trading Skinner for Reimer isn't just about getting Reimer and potentially signing him, it's also shifting a not very good contract with taking no money back. That's valuable regardless of where Carolina plans to be at the cap with a half-empty building.

Really, the only thing here that approaches hyperbole here is the value you're assigning to Skinner without really making a case for it beyond your say so. He's been a pretty mediocre player the last four seasons with an expensive contract. I think acknowledging that might help you understand why some people are discussing the trade like it's a possibility.

 

[Tigger]

I think the conversation with Carolina got started by the fact that their goalie went down...Ward.

And Carolina is one of those revenue conscious teams, they're only a few points out of a wildcard spot at this point, and perhaps then they'd be interested in a stop-gap solution to help put them in.

The Skinner thing is more about a guy that has never reproduced his production that got him that RFA contract at $5.75m per year. He's owed $6m real money per year until 2019.  He's also had some injury issues with his head, and is coming off of a 31 point season last season.  He's tracking about 43 points for this season, and had a 10 goal December, but is now back to producing about 3 goals per month in January.  I'm just thinking that $6mil is a fair chunk of change for that kind of production, especially on the cash-strapped Hurricanes. 

He'd be a guy the Leafs could roll the dice on becoming a better overall contributor with a fresh start and a new coach in his hometown...maybe. 

Sure, Ward going down ramped up speculation but like I said, they have a couple decent goalie prospects and while Lack is having an off year, he has been a pretty good goalie too, and one could even say losing Ward was good for them as he wasn't really living up to his contract either.

Carolina has also very recently been a cap team, they have some revenue consciousness to be sure but if you look at the increase in loss from the season before it's just more than half of what they're paying Semin to not play for them this year ( and 4 more years ). I think their cash-strappediness is being overblown.

Again, to that end, Skinner would serve them far better in a deal for a similar aged forward or defenseman.

 

[McGarnagle]

I know talent reigns, but with Marner and Nylander on their way, and really only JVR on the current top 6 with size, I don't know if I'd want to roll the dice on another smallish forward like Skinner as a project with a significant cap hit.

Regarding Reimer, I'm not sure if I've ever seen a player who's see-sawed between undervalued and overvalued depending on the week. If you're of the opinion that the teardown is complete, then you keep him as puzzle piece. Personally, I think if you can get a late 1st or early 2nd, you move him. There's always serviceable goalies available in the offseason that can platoon with Bernier for another lottery season, which the leafs should be going for in '17.

 

[Tigger]

Careful, swig any harder on that hyperbole and your lamppost might offer no help on either front. If Karmanos is desperate to sell, he sure has put a strange price on that team, and yeah, Francis isn't going to say anything to hurt himself or the team, however he doesn't strike me as the type of guy who shines people on, when he says things like ''I look at this as a fresh start...I don't want to just kind of build a team that gets into the playoffs for one year. I would like to build it so that it's a very solid franchise and we can do it on a yearly basis.'', I believe him. Even just take the most self centred reasoning there, he's a part owner, he stands to do much, much better if the Canes can even just be a playoff team regularly. But hey, if you think they actually are desperate and are likely to make a trade like that, ok.

Leaving aside your impressions of Ron Francis and whatever they're based on I don't know that I agree that his single digit equity stake in the Hurricanes is a lot likelier to be more valuable if he decides to break things down and try to rebuild again(try being the operative word there) than if he were to take some shot at triage on the body of his fan base. Again, his solid marks in Public Relations 101 are very evident from not declaring his intentions to put short term success over the juggernaut he plans on building but the practicum tends to be a trickier business.

(Also, I'm not pulling the Hurricanes for sale stuff out of nowhere, it's been widely reported and acknowledged that they're up for sale without a lot of interest

http://www.sportsnet.ca/hockey/nhl/hurricanes-sale-remains-in-limbo-as-team-seeks-buyers/)

Even then I still don't think Skinner is the prize you're making him out to be or that you've really made the case that a trade for Reimer, which would include negotiation rights for a few months(and Reimer doesn't strike me as the type of player who can't be signed just by hitting a number), is as bad a move as you're making it out to be for Carolina either in the long or short term. 

Trading Skinner for Reimer isn't just about getting Reimer and potentially signing him, it's also shifting a not very good contract with taking no money back. That's valuable regardless of where Carolina plans to be at the cap with a half-empty building.

Really, the only thing here that approaches hyperbole here is the value you're assigning to Skinner without really making a case for it beyond your say so. He's been a pretty mediocre player the last four seasons with an expensive contract. I think acknowledging that might help you understand why some people are discussing the trade like it's a possibility.

The value I'm assigning Skinner is greater than an unrestricted goalie with health issues, right? That doesn't make him a prize. Goal scoring has a premium, Skinner is kind of on his way to his 3rd 30 goal season. Yeah, he's getting more than he deserves but I think the notion of trading him for Reimer is wrong headed from Carolina's end, he's more valuable in deals elsewhere ( again ). They've been a cap team recently and are headed into a season having a huge amount of cap space available, hell they have a huge amount right now, he's a lower order priority when it comes to saving a small chunk of dough. Anything is possible, this is unlikely.

What about the Hurricanes tells you they've been going for it? It certainly looks to me like they've been quietly quasi-rebuilding for a while now. If the crux of this is you think they're desperate and I don't, we're probably done here.

I know you're not pulling the sale out of nowhere, that's why I mentioned the weird 'I have time and don't need the money' price tag Karmanos seems to have put on the team, hardly a desperate owner looking to get out.

 

[Tigger]

I know talent reigns, but with Marner and Nylander on their way, and really only JVR on the current top 6 with size, I don't know if I'd want to roll the dice on another smallish forward like Skinner as a project with a significant cap hit.

Yeah, probably not.

 

[Kin]

The value I'm assigning Skinner is greater than an unrestricted goalie with health issues, right? That doesn't make him a prize. Goal scoring has a premium, Skinner is kind of on his way to his 3rd 30 goal season. Yeah, he's getting more than he deserves but I think the notion of trading him for Reimer is wrong headed from Carolina's end, he's more valuable in deals elsewhere ( again ). They've been a cap team recently and are headed into a season having a huge amount of cap space available, hell they have a huge amount right now, he's a lower order priority when it comes to saving a small chunk of dough. Anything is possible, this is unlikely.

1st among all goalies in SV% this year, 3rd in GAA, almost certainly will re-sign with a team if they meet what figures to be a reasonable price for a potential starting goalie. Yes, that piece of disgusting fried chicken isn't worth as much as one of my delicious rocks.

The value you're putting on Skinner, on pace for a robust 42 point season, currently sitting 5th on the Hurricanes in scoring and with injury issues of his own, isn't just higher than Reimer it's so much higher than Reimer that the possibility of those two being the primary pieces in a trade for each other doesn't even, to your mind, bear consideration.

What about the Hurricanes tells you they've been going for it? It certainly looks to me like they've been quietly quasi-rebuilding for a while now. If the crux of this is you think they're desperate and I don't, we're probably done here.

The Hurricanes have had a better than expected first 50 games. That has largely changed their dynamic. If they were rebuilding, we'd be hearing a lot more about Eric Staal being on the block. Signing Staal, even attempting to, is a pretty clear indication that they have interest in short term successes which makes a degree of sense given their issues with attendance. Despite being near the cap "recently" they were also playing to 94% capacity "recently". Now they're playing to 61% capacity. Call me nuts but I think that might impact their ability to spend on players.

I don't think trading for Reimer would be a desperation move, especially if they can work out an extension first. It gives them a goalie they can maybe ride to some short term success while giving them some cash to invest later in a winger who can produce at roughly the same level of Jeff Skinner. Which, for the record, PA Parenteau is doing this year at a quarter of what Skinner is making.

I know you're not pulling the sale out of nowhere, that's why I mentioned the weird 'I have time and don't need the money' price tag Karmanos seems to have put on the team, hardly a desperate owner looking to get out.

I really don't know what you're on about here. As the article says, Karmanos can't find a buyer. It's not Karmanos kicking his feet up and not caring about selling, it's nobody wanting to buy. Do you think what's happened to their attendance recently helps that?

 

[dappleganger]

Is it weird that the only person I trust to make player decisions for the Leafs is Babcock?

 

[Tigger]

The value I'm assigning Skinner is greater than an unrestricted goalie with health issues, right? That doesn't make him a prize. Goal scoring has a premium, Skinner is kind of on his way to his 3rd 30 goal season. Yeah, he's getting more than he deserves but I think the notion of trading him for Reimer is wrong headed from Carolina's end, he's more valuable in deals elsewhere ( again ). They've been a cap team recently and are headed into a season having a huge amount of cap space available, hell they have a huge amount right now, he's a lower order priority when it comes to saving a small chunk of dough. Anything is possible, this is unlikely.

1st among all goalies in SV% this year, 3rd in GAA, almost certainly will re-sign with a team if they meet what figures to be a reasonable price for a potential starting goalie. Yes, that piece of disgusting fried chicken isn't worth as much as one of my delicious rocks.

The value you're putting on Skinner, on pace for a robust 42 point season, currently sitting 5th on the Hurricanes in scoring and with injury issues of his own, isn't just higher than Reimer it's so much higher than Reimer that the possibility of those two being the primary pieces in a trade for each other doesn't even, to your mind, bear consideration.

Not really, not when they can get him for free in the offseason.

What about the Hurricanes tells you they've been going for it? It certainly looks to me like they've been quietly quasi-rebuilding for a while now. If the crux of this is you think they're desperate and I don't, we're probably done here.

The Hurricanes have had a better than expected first 50 games. That has largely changed their dynamic. If they were rebuilding, we'd be hearing a lot more about Eric Staal being on the block. Signing Staal, even attempting to, is a pretty clear indication that they have interest in short term successes which makes a degree of sense given their issues with attendance. Despite being near the cap "recently" they were also playing to 94% capacity "recently". Now they're playing to 61% capacity. Call me nuts but I think that might impact their ability to spend on players.

I don't think trading for Reimer would be a desperation move, especially if they can work out an extension first. It gives them a goalie they can maybe ride to some short term success while giving them some cash to invest later in a winger who can produce at roughly the same level of Jeff Skinner. Which, for the record, PA Parenteau is doing this year at a quarter of what Skinner is making.

They don't need the cash to sign that winger, and again, they can try to sign Reimer in the offseason if they want to, I don't think they do though.

Edit, so it's not desperate now but it was 2 pages ago, ok.

I know you're not pulling the sale out of nowhere, that's why I mentioned the weird 'I have time and don't need the money' price tag Karmanos seems to have put on the team, hardly a desperate owner looking to get out.

I really don't know what you're on about here. As the article says, Karmanos can't find a buyer. It's not Karmanos kicking his feet up and not caring about selling, it's nobody wanting to buy. Do you think what's happened to their attendance recently helps that?

Maybe you should do some more reading then, from day one Karmanos has made it incredibly difficult to find his select buyer, 49% (ish) of a 500 mil valuation, the rest to be sold after a transition of 4 to 6 years? It almost sounds like he's trying to help puff up team values while hoping to cash in on expansion.

 

[Kin]

Not really, not when they can get him for free in the offseason.

Sure, because when has Carolina ever not been a free agent's #1 choice?

They don't need the cash to sign that winger, and again, they can try to sign Reimer in the offseason if they want to, I don't think they do though.

Again, the idea that Carolina is going to be able to spend to the cap with a half-empty building doesn't strike me as particularly realistic. They're not a cap team right now, it doesn't stand to reason they can just choose to be one when it suits them.

Either way, there's a pretty fair chance the Leafs trade Reimer at the deadline regardless and the team that trades for him is probably going to be interested in signing him. If Carolina wants to improve their goaltending this off-season, a pretty safe bet, then sitting around and waiting to see if they can outbid everyone else who might be interested in their #1 choice isn't really a smart way to do that.

Maybe you should do some more reading then, from day one Karmanos has made it incredibly difficult to find his select buyer, 49% (ish) of a 500 mil valuation, the rest to be sold after a transition of 4 to 6 years? It almost sounds like he's trying to help puff up team values while hoping to cash in on expansion.

Yup. Nothing inflates a company's value quite like being publicly up for sale for months with no interested buyers.

 

[Tigger]

They don't need the cash to sign that winger, and again, they can try to sign Reimer in the offseason if they want to, I don't think they do though.

Again, the idea that Carolina is going to be able to spend to the cap with a half-empty building doesn't strike me as particularly realistic. They're not a cap team right now, it doesn't stand to reason they can just choose to be one when it suits them.

Either way, there's a pretty fair chance the Leafs trade Reimer at the deadline regardless and the team that trades for him is probably going to be interested in signing him. If Carolina wants to improve their goaltending this off-season, a pretty safe bet, then sitting around and waiting to see if they can outbid everyone else who might be interested in their #1 choice isn't really a smart way to do that.

If they're interested in Reimer, which I'm saying they're not overly right now, it's a far better approach than trading useful pieces instead, they're not a Reimer away from anything and they don't need to be a cap team to sign a PA Parenteau type deal.

Maybe you should do some more reading then, from day one Karmanos has made it incredibly difficult to find his select buyer, 49% (ish) of a 500 mil valuation, the rest to be sold after a transition of 4 to 6 years? It almost sounds like he's trying to help puff up team values while hoping to cash in on expansion.

Yup. Nothing inflates a company's value quite like being publicly up for sale for months with no interested buyers.

Team values, as in pushing the value of an expansion team, jeebus, enough already.

 

[Kin]

If they're interested in Reimer, which I'm saying they're not overly right now, it's a far better approach than trading useful pieces instead, they're not a Reimer away from anything and they don't need to be a cap team to sign a PA Parenteau type deal.

They're five points out of a playoff spot right now. I think a goalie playing as well as Reimer has is definitely the difference between that being a longshot and being well within their grasp.

And I don't see how waiting around and hoping Reimer is interested in them and that they can outbid everyone else is the smarter move. It's not like it's a particularly strong market for UFA goalies this year and as we saw last year with the Jones and Talbot trades, you're going to pay heavily if there are any backups you think might start. So the only way they can really be that cavalier with their goaltending future is if they don't really care about improving their goaltending which strikes me as unlikely given their situation.

Team values, as in pushing the value of an expansion team, jeebus, enough already.

That makes even less sense. Why would nobody wanting to buy the Hurricanes at an inflated price make anyone overvalue a Vegas expansion team? Teams on the market with no buyers hurts the NHL's leverage, it doesn't help it. 

 

[LuncheonMeat]

There's an article from Mirtle up tonight.

Lou Lamoriello sets out on deadline deconstruction of Maple Leafs
http://www.theglobeandmail.com/sports/hockey/lou-lamoriello-sets-out-on-deadline-deconstruction-of-maple-leafs/article28367293/

He mentions the names he's heard in trade talks right now, which includes Roman Polak, P.A. Parenteau and Shawn Matthias. Not surprising since they're on expiring contracts. He also mentions 2 players with term, the first being Winnik, and the second being Bernier. I'm a little surprised Bernier is the guy being shopped since his value is likely pretty low. Other than that, not a whole lot of meat and potatoes in this one.

 

[sickbeast]

I think getting rid of Bernier would be good for the team at this point.

 

[sneakyray]

I have been wondering what this team is going to look like post trade deadline.

obviously it is going to depend on if they take anybody back in deals or if its only for futures this could be a pretty young group the 2nd half of the year.

 

[bustaheims]

I have been wondering what this team is going to look like post trade deadline.

obviously it is going to depend on if they take anybody back in deals or if its only for futures this could be a pretty young group the 2nd half of the year.

It may be a younger group, but the guys the team will be bringing up will most likely be the older guys on the Marlies, not guys like Nylander or Brown. They'll give the guys who have been in the system a reward for waiting it out for so long, while the team is essentially playing out the season without a care.