Zanzibar Buck-Buck McFate said:
Rielly has played well this season but let's get serious: he is not now and likely never will be in the conversation for the Norris, so this comparison to Doughty is absurd. Penguin model or no, spending money on Tavares is misplaced IMO. Even if his equivalent is not available on D, use that money to get better on the backend.
I've been thinking about this and I think I see what the Leafs Front Office is leaning towards and I kind of agree with it. It's all opportunity cost stuff.
Givens:
The Leafs have very good to elite forwards across pretty much every age band on the roster, with the bulk of it resting in the younger third.
The Leafs have two or three very very good puck moving, offensive defenders.
What makes this team better?
1) Top-end defender (preferably RH) that can handle 25 min easily, suppresses shots and drives offense
2) Better 3C/4C: one to drive sheltered offense without being a complete defensive liability, and the other to play low event hockey and kill time and maybe help chip in goals.
What option has the greater impact at the better cost?
I would argue signing Tavares in the offseason is more valuable to the Leafs than trying to trade for, or wait to sign Karlsson/Doughty. They'll be commanding a similar amount of money at long term.
Adding a defender on top gives us a great 1st pair, a very good 2nd pair, and a pretty good 3rd pair. Nice.
Adding Tavares gives us 3(!) first lines, and a very good 3rd line. When Kadri's wonderful steal of a deal expires (or nears expiry), it's far easier to move on when Matthews, Tavares, Nylander are still there. Getting Tavares automatically improves every centre and line by pushing even more talent deeper. Opposing coaches will literally cry thinking about how to match up against us.
Our defensive weakness would still be there to a degree, but internal growth, subtracting pastry chefs like Polak, and adding stretch pass magicians like Liljegren during that timeframe means getting the pucks to our three line 1s all the more likely.
I can't stress this enough, but 3 defensively responsible and offensively wizardrous line 1s can easily prop up a slightly above average defense corps and a consistent goalie.
#BringJohnnyHome