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2020-2021 NHL Thread

Nik said:
Not sure if we need a general rumours thread but some of the Laine trade talk interests me. I'm not sold that it's happening, I think they'll take a look to see if he can jumpstart things with Stastny but if it does I really wonder if it'll be the steepest decline of any player in the league in my lifetime that wasn't about an injury.
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What decline though? He arguably had his best offensive season last year. Almost a point a game player. He lead the team in P/60, 4th in ESP/60, 4th in total points. In 18/19 he was 6th in P/60 and 16th in ESP/60, 4th in total points. Seems like he became a much better 5 v 5 player. He was a -24 in 18/19 and a +8 last season.
From what I've read, he's upset because he isn't playing on the top line with Scheifele and he's kind of proving he belongs there. He's 22 years old. If he was signed for the same term as Nylander, I'd def be tempted to do a one for one trade for him.
 
Nik said:
Not sure if we need a general rumours thread but some of the Laine trade talk interests me. I'm not sold that it's happening, I think they'll take a look to see if he can jumpstart things with Stastny but if it does I really wonder if it'll be the steepest decline of any player in the league in my lifetime that wasn't about an injury.
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Yakupov? Went from a 30 goal pace in his rookie season to being out of the league a few seasons later.

Laine still put up pretty good numbers this past season and mostly avoid disappearing for extended periods. He hasn't been the truly elite goal scorer he looked like he was going to be, but he's still a pretty safe bet for 30+ goals a season. He's declined, but it's not as steep as the media narratives want us to believe.
 
herman said:
Nik said:
Not sure if we need a general rumours thread but some of the Laine trade talk interests me. I'm not sold that it's happening, I think they'll take a look to see if he can jumpstart things with Stastny but if it does I really wonder if it'll be the steepest decline of any player in the league in my lifetime that wasn't about an injury.
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Is it player decline or more of a team-fit and self-efficacy issue?

The top half of the 2016 draft is a mess
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I was thinking it more in the sense of just the deterioration of a player's status for whatever reason. I can't think of anyone who looked like the next Ovechkin for a little while and and then got dealt because of "team fit".
 
Nik said:
herman said:
Nik said:
Not sure if we need a general rumours thread but some of the Laine trade talk interests me. I'm not sold that it's happening, I think they'll take a look to see if he can jumpstart things with Stastny but if it does I really wonder if it'll be the steepest decline of any player in the league in my lifetime that wasn't about an injury.
Click to expand...

Is it player decline or more of a team-fit and self-efficacy issue?

The top half of the 2016 draft is a mess
Click to expand...

I was thinking it more in the sense of just the deterioration of a player's status for whatever reason. I can't think of anyone who looked like the next Ovechkin for a little while and and then got dealt because of "team fit".
Click to expand...
Definitely agree with that assessment. It's a weird situation going on in the Peg.
 
From my understanding Laine/his agents were the ones who started pushing for a trade, so Winnipeg's in a tough spot here. I don't think they want to trade him but they also want to avoid another Trouba situation where the player just keeps taking 1 or 2 year deals until he's in a position to bolt.
 
Is there something specific with Laine's shot that he went from a 17.6/18.3 Shooting percentage in his first two years and then down to a 12.2/12.4 the last two years.  Are teams defending him differently and his lack of diversity on offense holding him back from being a consistent 40+ goal scorer?  Or was his shooting his first two years just unsustainable for him.  There are only 7 players over the last 4 years (combined and at least 100 games played) who have averaged a shooting percentage of 17.6% or better (Oshie, Barbashev, Scheifele, Byron, Draisaitl, Pettersson and Connolly).  Oshie, Scheifele and Draisaitl are the only three who have put up at least 100 goals at that shooting percentage.
 
Nik said:
I was thinking it more in the sense of just the deterioration of a player's status for whatever reason. I can't think of anyone who looked like the next Ovechkin for a little while and and then got dealt because of "team fit".
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He certainly is a curious case. Somewhat similar to Phil Kessel?

L K said:
Is there something specific with Laine's shot that he went from a 17.6/18.3 Shooting percentage in his first two years and then down to a 12.2/12.4 the last two years.  Are teams defending him differently and his lack of diversity on offense holding him back from being a consistent 40+ goal scorer?  Or was his shooting his first two years just unsustainable for him.
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This definitely seems to be the crux of the matter. 17-18% is unsustainable for a distance shooter, especially 5v5.

People tend to narrativize and apply causality to the sequence of events. 12+% is still pretty exceptional, especially for a youngish player on the front end of his peak development curve. Laine is one of the few players that can generate a goal out of nearly nothing, or an iffy pass.

There's a confluence of things happening here that I can see:
  • Starting off a career with 40ish goals in both seasons is hard to live up to! That sets expectations at generational levels that not too many players can live up to (hello Auston Matthews)
  • Team fit in usage, language used, affects how we 'template' players. Oh, Laine is just a one-dimensional cowboy who doesn't play the team game, which is an extremely big deal for the chip-on-the-shoulder Winnipeg Jets and their team culture (bye, Evander Kane)
  • Scouting means teams start to game plan against young stars. Sophomore slumps and all that. Laine scored even more in his second season, so it stands to reason that his solution to the 3rd year dip was to keep doing what he did before.
  • Unfortunately for Laine, that also meant continuing to rely on his linemates to do the heavy lifting of chance creation, while he stuck with finishing them. His linemates are getting older and losing a step; he himself did not push to do more off the puck; coach moves him to a lower spot in the lineup and results spiral down as expected.
  • He figured it out more this past year, adding more to his game away from the puck, away from just PP success
  • Winnipeg is facing another Trouba situation and wants to deal with it differently, instead of dragging it out and risking the asset devaluing further; Laine is potentially a big ticket that could solve multiple roster issues in one move, but Cheveldayoff needs to make it appear as a clear win to move a young sniper just entering prime.
 
herman said:
He certainly is a curious case. Somewhat similar to Phil Kessel?
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The best comp I could think of was Subban. From local icon to gonzo seemingly overnight.
 
TRON jersy szn
https://twitter.com/DallasStars/status/1321469550509150209
Pretty cool when San Jose and Tampa did it; Ufa Salavat Yulaev's looks pretty dope too.
cut.jpg
(Rodion Amirov)
 
Frank E said:
I wonder how it works for the Michigan based teams.
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Either play each other ad nauseam or relocate to Ontario the way the Jays moved to Pittsburgh/Buffalo/whatever
 
CarltonTheBear said:
A week and a half training camp after most of these players have been off since March? Seems weird.
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Most players have been on the ice skating since July in Canada. Many places in the states and Europe never shut down the rinks.
 
https://twitter.com/ineffectivemath/status/1321790709112971264
Hence Lundqvist?s epic numbers
 
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