2021-22 Toronto Maple Leafs General Discussion
- Thread starter herman
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From Anthony Petrielli's Leafs Notebook this week, probably the only regular Leafs content outside of here that I consider a "must read":
I wasn't really as big of a fan of Justin's article as the rest of the internet, but didn't really bother didn't into my issues with it. This bit here that Anthony echoed was one of my points of concern. The argument that the Leafs high danger goals against rate is among the worst in the league and that part of the problem there lies in the fact that the defence isn't capable of defending properly in that area.
The first part of the argument is of course true: the Leafs rank 30th in HDGA/60 with a rate of 1.64/60. Since January 1st they're 31st with a rate of 2.04/60. Of the 41 goalies who have played at least 500 5-on-5 minutes since January 1st Mrazek and Campbell rank 40th and 41st respectively in high-danger save percentage. That's clearly a problem but I'm less convinced that the defence has played a major role in that. Since January 1st the Leafs have the third best scoring chance against / 60 rate in the league and the 7th best high danger corsi against / 60 rate in the league. Simply put if the Leafs defence is so bad at defending that area why are teams not putting up considering more shots/chances there?
My next minor little quibble here is that in the same paragraph talking about the Leafs defence issues Anthony brings up Carolina in comparison and says they're "a team that ranks among the elite in shots allowed per game, corsi against, and scoring chances against". Do you know which team, since January 1st, tops Carolina in shots allowed per game, corsi against, and scoring chances against? The Leafs. If someone wants to say all these stats are junk and all they need is their eyes then fine, you do you. But I don't get how someone who puts stock in these stats can state Carolina is an elite team defensively while literally in the same paragraph say the Leafs defence has some serious issues.
I wasn't really as big of a fan of Justin's article as the rest of the internet, but didn't really bother didn't into my issues with it. This bit here that Anthony echoed was one of my points of concern. The argument that the Leafs high danger goals against rate is among the worst in the league and that part of the problem there lies in the fact that the defence isn't capable of defending properly in that area.
The first part of the argument is of course true: the Leafs rank 30th in HDGA/60 with a rate of 1.64/60. Since January 1st they're 31st with a rate of 2.04/60. Of the 41 goalies who have played at least 500 5-on-5 minutes since January 1st Mrazek and Campbell rank 40th and 41st respectively in high-danger save percentage. That's clearly a problem but I'm less convinced that the defence has played a major role in that. Since January 1st the Leafs have the third best scoring chance against / 60 rate in the league and the 7th best high danger corsi against / 60 rate in the league. Simply put if the Leafs defence is so bad at defending that area why are teams not putting up considering more shots/chances there?
My next minor little quibble here is that in the same paragraph talking about the Leafs defence issues Anthony brings up Carolina in comparison and says they're "a team that ranks among the elite in shots allowed per game, corsi against, and scoring chances against". Do you know which team, since January 1st, tops Carolina in shots allowed per game, corsi against, and scoring chances against? The Leafs. If someone wants to say all these stats are junk and all they need is their eyes then fine, you do you. But I don't get how someone who puts stock in these stats can state Carolina is an elite team defensively while literally in the same paragraph say the Leafs defence has some serious issues.
herman
Well-known member
I see this as a two-fold problem, borne of the Leafs strength and style, and some personnel struggles.
Stylistically, and system-wise, Dubas/Keefe want the team to control the puck, especially in transition and in the OZ. Because of our forward capabilities, aggressive forecheck, and the active defense on the walls, we have the puck a lot and spend very little time in the DZ. NZ forecheck is designed to act as an upside down umbrella to funnel and neutralize attacks far from the net. When it works well, there is literally very little opponents can do.
Issues have cropped up after the COVID pause. Some key personnel are struggling to keep up the pace of play (Tavares, Muzzin, Spezza), and I don't doubt that COVID and the break in routine have added some extra difficulty. This is causing leaks to spring up in the OZ. See Jack Han's video breakdown below.
https://twitter.com/JhanHky/status/1503035453733281803
What this results in are Grade A++ counter attacks against either a lone defenseman or even a covering forward. It results in extended possessions in the DZ against a D-group that is designed to push the puck up more than it is designed to kill plays (both on defense and offense). It means more defensive sort outs for baby Buds and vets that have slowed down a bit with forwards that are trying to save or have already spent all their gas to attack in the other end of the rink.
Everything seems good and fine until there's a breakthrough (puck off a shin pad, a slightly bobbled pass, someone sticks out a skate because he is trying to help his beleaguered goaltender), and then the goalie is suddenly called to make a 10-bell save from basically cold.
Stylistically, and system-wise, Dubas/Keefe want the team to control the puck, especially in transition and in the OZ. Because of our forward capabilities, aggressive forecheck, and the active defense on the walls, we have the puck a lot and spend very little time in the DZ. NZ forecheck is designed to act as an upside down umbrella to funnel and neutralize attacks far from the net. When it works well, there is literally very little opponents can do.
Issues have cropped up after the COVID pause. Some key personnel are struggling to keep up the pace of play (Tavares, Muzzin, Spezza), and I don't doubt that COVID and the break in routine have added some extra difficulty. This is causing leaks to spring up in the OZ. See Jack Han's video breakdown below.
https://twitter.com/JhanHky/status/1503035453733281803
What this results in are Grade A++ counter attacks against either a lone defenseman or even a covering forward. It results in extended possessions in the DZ against a D-group that is designed to push the puck up more than it is designed to kill plays (both on defense and offense). It means more defensive sort outs for baby Buds and vets that have slowed down a bit with forwards that are trying to save or have already spent all their gas to attack in the other end of the rink.
Everything seems good and fine until there's a breakthrough (puck off a shin pad, a slightly bobbled pass, someone sticks out a skate because he is trying to help his beleaguered goaltender), and then the goalie is suddenly called to make a 10-bell save from basically cold.
https://twitter.com/dalter/status/1503785499017809926
Concussion issues should obviously be treated very carefully, but it's hard to imagine that Muzzin will be out for another 6 weeks.
Concussion issues should obviously be treated very carefully, but it's hard to imagine that Muzzin will be out for another 6 weeks.
Heroic Shrimp
Active member
https://twitter.com/markzwol/status/1504145522361348099
ZBBM
Active member
Keefe today:
What is your sense of how Petr Mrazek is handling this stretch where he is out of the net?
Keefe: I think he is handling it well. He is a confident guy. He has been through this kind of stuff throughout his career. He has had some downswings. He has also been a guy who has shared the net a lot.
I think it is not too big of a disruption for him in that sense. He is able to just focus here. My talk with him has really just been about using this time to his benefit. Erik has certainly earned another start. Use this time to your benefit, clear your head, do your work, and be ready when your next start comes.
Reading between the lines: "... when your next start comes somewhere else." I think Mrazek will be traded before the deadline.
What is your sense of how Petr Mrazek is handling this stretch where he is out of the net?
Keefe: I think he is handling it well. He is a confident guy. He has been through this kind of stuff throughout his career. He has had some downswings. He has also been a guy who has shared the net a lot.
I think it is not too big of a disruption for him in that sense. He is able to just focus here. My talk with him has really just been about using this time to his benefit. Erik has certainly earned another start. Use this time to your benefit, clear your head, do your work, and be ready when your next start comes.
Reading between the lines: "... when your next start comes somewhere else." I think Mrazek will be traded before the deadline.
I think it just means what it says to be honest. I can't see anyone touching Mrazek's contract right now.
Guilt Trip
Active member
No such a thing as an untradeable contract...see Ritchie. If Kyle wants to move him, he will find a buyer.CarltonTheBear said:
bustaheims
Active member
There will be opportunities to move Mrazek without attaching a high value asset. There will be teams who think he can rebound in their system. It?s an off-season move, not a deadline move.
bustaheims
Active member
Zanzibar Buck-Buck McFate said:
There aren't going to be takers for him at the deadline. Playoff teams aren't bringing him in and teams outside the playoffs aren't adding pieces. There's not likely for there to be a market for him at the deadline.
I mean clearly no player is "untradeable", attach a 1st round pick to Mrazek and he's gone tomorrow. I mean under reasonable terms no one's taking him right now. Maybe in the offseason if teams get left without a goalie and the Leafs get 2 guys they're comfortable with (which considering the UFA market, may not be easy and we might need to give Mrazek a chance to rebound next season).
I also think goalies are just tougher cap dumps than forwards/skaters. Like Arizona can slot Ritchie (who was successfully dumped yes but had less term and a lower AAV) anywhere in their line-up, if he sucks he just plays less minutes and nobody really bats an eye. A team acquiring Mrazek is going to need to feel comfortable playing him like at least 30% of their season, or pay him in the AHL to do nothing. Look at the Stars and Khudobin, he only had 1 year left on his deal and they weren't able to find any takers for him.
I also think goalies are just tougher cap dumps than forwards/skaters. Like Arizona can slot Ritchie (who was successfully dumped yes but had less term and a lower AAV) anywhere in their line-up, if he sucks he just plays less minutes and nobody really bats an eye. A team acquiring Mrazek is going to need to feel comfortable playing him like at least 30% of their season, or pay him in the AHL to do nothing. Look at the Stars and Khudobin, he only had 1 year left on his deal and they weren't able to find any takers for him.