• For users coming over from tmlfans.ca your username will remain the same but you will need to use the password reset feature (check your spam folder) on the login page in order to set your password. If you encounter issues, email Rick couchmanrick@gmail.com

2023-24 Toronto Maple Leafs General Discussion

herman said:
https://theathletic.com/4654648/2023/06/30/auston-matthews-william-nylanders-maple-leafs/
Based on the article above and what I've surmised from other insiders
https://twitter.com/TSNHockey/status/1674433893049700361
Here's Dreger blowing smoke for Lewis Gross

Matthews:
[*] Wants to be a Leaf
[*] Wants to win with the Leafs
[*] Looking for a shorter term deal 3-5 years in the 12.5+ to 14M range, ostensibly to give the Leafs more room for depth
[*] Would entertain an 8-year but it would have to account for the escalating cap, so 16+, which is counter productive

Nylander:
[*] Wants to be a Leaf
[*] Wants to win with the Leafs
[*] Wants to be paid commensurate with his contributions: initial ask is $10M (scaling Tkachuk's deal 9.5x8 @ 11.52% to new cap levels)
[*] Leafs pushing for something starting with 8
[*] Ottawa, Detroit, Edmonton circling for a trade

My prediction:
Matthews: 13.4 x 5 years
Nylander: 9.288 x 8 years; if you drag it into mid-next season (cap space is gone around the league except on teams Nylander's NTC should be blocking), the price goes up

https://twitter.com/nhlnetwork/status/1678162114861514753
Not much has changed since the Free Agency day.

8.8x8 is equivalent to 10x7 on the open market
9.288x8 is equivalent to 10.6x7 on the open market
10x8 is equivalent to 11.5x7 on the open market
 
Bullfrog said:
I don't understand your equivalencies. Why would the total contract value stay the same?

Just saying Nylander can get more total dollars in Toronto. Other teams would be pitching based on cap% of comparables and I doubt anyone is offering more than 10Mx7. If he takes 9Mx8 in Toronto he surpasses that open market offer.

I just hope both sides come to their senses and just take the middle (9.2ish)
 
herman said:
Bullfrog said:
I don't understand your equivalencies. Why would the total contract value stay the same?

Just saying Nylander can get more total dollars in Toronto. Other teams would be pitching based on cap% of comparables and I doubt anyone is offering more than 10Mx7. If he takes 9Mx8 in Toronto he surpasses that open market offer.

This is true provided you forget how years work.
 
https://twitter.com/NHLPA/status/1678414303295074305

Samsonov's arbitration case is scheduled for July 21st.

Sammy's 1 of 3 goalies who filed for arbitration this year. The other two (Swayman and Gustavsson) both have their hearings scheduled after him. Was kind of hoping those 2 would go before him since they're pretty likely to get bigger contracts.
 
Nik said:
herman said:
Bullfrog said:
I don't understand your equivalencies. Why would the total contract value stay the same?

Just saying Nylander can get more total dollars in Toronto. Other teams would be pitching based on cap% of comparables and I doubt anyone is offering more than 10Mx7. If he takes 9Mx8 in Toronto he surpasses that open market offer.

This is true provided you forget how years work.

Yeah, I think to do the exercise that Herman is doing you have to include a hypothetical 8th year at a potentially lower rate than he would be making over the lifetime of the seven year contract. 
 
There's obviously value in the Leafs being able to include a guaranteed extra season in his contract, especially considering that 8th season would be when he's 35 years old, but saying 10x8 = 11.5x7 is probably a tad too simplistic.
 
The buyout window we get for having player elected arbitration...does that still happen if the Leafs sign Samsonov before his arbitration hearing or do they have to go forward with it.
 
L K said:
The buyout window we get for having player elected arbitration...does that still happen if the Leafs sign Samsonov before his arbitration hearing or do they have to go forward with it.

Leafs will get the buyout window either way.
 
https://nypost.com/2023/07/08/blake-wheeler-is-rare-rangers-free-agency-bargain-win-the-cup/

Jaro Halak, Brian Elliott, Martin Jones and Thomas Greiss are out there seeking jobs as backups, with Elliott perhaps on his way to Toronto.
 
I'm a little surprised he'd be interested in likely spending most of a season in the AHL as opposed to just retiring at 38. But hey if he wants to keep playing he'd be a fine choice for a #3 goalie.

Same goes for any of those mentioned goalies really if they're willing to play in the AHL. Only 60 64 (stupid expansion) NHL goalie spots available and I'd imagine like 95% of them are taken up at this point.
 
Actually taking a look at some goalie depth charts I'd argue there's only 5 teams that still need a back-up at this point: Anaheim, Chicago, Tampa, St. Louis, and New Jersey.

St. Louis (Hofer) and New Jersey (Schmid) both have a young, still waiver exempt goalie that looked good in NHL minutes last season so those spots could already be filled if those teams would rather put them in the NHL full time as opposed to getting more starts in the AHL.

Tampa signed 2 goalies who might be in a competition for the back-up spot in Matt Tomkins and Jonas Johansson but both of them feel more like #3 goalies right now so that feels like a potential Halak or Jones landing spot for me.

This is also very noteworthy for Matt Murray, as if he gets traded somewhere his new team can't buy him out even if they do have a second buyout window (can only be used on a player that was on their team at the end of last season). Obviously NJ, STL, and TB wouldn't really make sense for Murray for a variety of reasons so that just leaves Anaheim and Chicago as trade partners most likely. Even if one of those teams would be willing to take Murray (and his $6mil salary for this upcoming season) you gotta wonder if they would be on Murray's 10 team no trade list.
 
CarltonTheBear said:
Actually taking a look at some goalie depth charts I'd argue there's only 5 teams that still need a back-up at this point: Anaheim, Chicago, Tampa, St. Louis, and New Jersey.

St. Louis (Hofer) and New Jersey (Schmid) both have a young, still waiver exempt goalie that looked good in NHL minutes last season so those spots could already be filled if those teams would rather put them in the NHL full time as opposed to getting more starts in the AHL.

Tampa signed 2 goalies who might be in a competition for the back-up spot in Matt Tomkins and Jonas Johansson but both of them feel more like #3 goalies right now so that feels like a potential Halak or Jones landing spot for me.

This is also very noteworthy for Matt Murray, as if he gets traded somewhere his new team can't buy him out even if they do have a second buyout window (can only be used on a player that was on their team at the end of last season). Obviously NJ, STL, and TB wouldn't really make sense for Murray for a variety of reasons so that just leaves Anaheim and Chicago as trade partners most likely. Even if one of those teams would be willing to take Murray (and his $6mil salary for this upcoming season) you gotta wonder if they would be on Murray's 10 team no trade list.

I guess we should just be thankful Murray was only signed to a two-year deal. On the other hand, in hindsight  they should have signed Samsonov to a longer one.
 
RedLeaf said:
I guess we should just be thankful Murray was only signed to a two-year deal. On the other hand, in hindsight  they should have signed Samsonov to a longer one.

The leafs didn?t sign murray to any deal. Those were 2 years remaining on an existing contract.
 
Joe said:
RedLeaf said:
I guess we should just be thankful Murray was only signed to a two-year deal. On the other hand, in hindsight  they should have signed Samsonov to a longer one.

The leafs didn?t sign murray to any deal. Those were 2 years remaining on an existing contract.

Right right. I guess be thankful he didn?t have more term left then ?
 
RedLeaf said:
Joe said:
RedLeaf said:
I guess we should just be thankful Murray was only signed to a two-year deal. On the other hand, in hindsight  they should have signed Samsonov to a longer one.

The leafs didn?t sign murray to any deal. Those were 2 years remaining on an existing contract.

Right right. I guess be thankful he didn?t have more term left then ?

I don't think they would have traded for him if there was any more term on the deal
 
What are we thinking Samsonov's arbitration hearing will play out as.

Not a lot of goaltender history making it through to arbitration.

Anton Forsberg in 2019 got a 25K raise to 775K.  He was coming off a 2.97 GAA .908 SV% season over 35 games for Chicago when Carolina took him to salary arbitration.

That's it that I can see going back to 2013.  A few goalies went to arbitration and signed deals before the arbitrator ruling (Bernier with the Leafs, Holtby with the Capitals).
 
L K said:
What are we thinking Samsonov's arbitration hearing will play out as.

Not a lot of goaltender history making it through to arbitration.

Anton Forsberg in 2019 got a 25K raise to 775K.  He was coming off a 2.97 GAA .908 SV% season over 35 games for Chicago when Carolina took him to salary arbitration.

That's it that I can see going back to 2013.  A few goalies went to arbitration and signed deals before the arbitrator ruling (Bernier with the Leafs, Holtby with the Capitals).

I'll say $3m.
 

About Us

This website is NOT associated with the Toronto Maple Leafs or the NHL.


It is operated by Rick Couchman and Jeff Lewis.
Back
Top