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2023-24 Toronto Maple Leafs General Discussion

Vitek Vanecek, Washington's other goalie that they moved/let go last year, is probably a very good comparison as well. Vanecek was traded to NJ and he filed for arbitration but they settled before hearing. He signed a 3-year, $3.4mil AAV deal. At the time Vanecek had only played 2 seasons and had almost identical stats in both of them. 21-10-4 with a .908 Sv% in his first season, 20-12-6 with a .908 Sv% in his second season. That's a career 79 GP, 41 wins, .908 Sv% at that point. Samsonov right now has played in 4 NHL seasons with 131 GP, 79 wins, .908 Sv%.

Samsonov has had the best season between the two of them, but also the worst season. What makes his contract trickier is of course those 2 seasons have come in his last 2 years. Considering that, and considering the Leafs cap situation at the moment, it's probably in both parties best interests to continue the trend of 1-year contracts. Samsonov gets to put that disastrous 21/22 season behind him a little more and if he has another season even close to what he did last season will set himself up for a much bigger long-term payday, especially with the rising cap. While the Leafs get to avoid another cap clearing move other than the Murray buyout, while also getting to see what Woll can do over the course of a full NHL season.

Reminder that a Murray buyout, which seems like the most likely outcome for that right now, gives the Leafs just about $2.4mil in cap space for Samsonov with a 12F-7D-2G roster. Moving Timmins and say replacing him with someone around league min only bumps that up to about $2.7mil. Running a barebones 12F-6D-2G roster will leave about $3.5mil in cap space.
 
Linus Ullmark is also a pretty good comparison. He filed for arbitration with Buffalo after the 19/20 season. At the time he had 97 GP, 41 wins, .911 Sv% and was coming off a season where he had a .915 Sv% (comparable to Samsonov's .919 but behind a much, much, much worse team/defence). He elected to sign a 1-year, $2.6mil deal to avoid arbitration and that set him up for a 4-year, $5mil deal with Boston as an UFA afterward.
 
I really like the additions of Domi and Bertuzzi...more just ok with Klingberg but I'm struggling to see how his lineup works if Samsonov comes in at 3.5M.  Even at 3M we are still forced to move someone unless we can convince (Anaheim?) to take on his full salary.

If they buyout Murray alone they have have 2.365M in cap space with a 12F 7D 1G lineup

If they trade Murray alone they have 3.052M in cap space with a 12F 7D 1G lineup

If they buyout Murray and trade Lafferty (replace with McMann) they have 2.752M 12F 7D 1G and 2.752M

If they buyout Murray and trade Timmins (go 12F 6D) they have 3.462M with 12F 6D 1G

If they buyout Murray and trade Lafferty and Timmins they have 3.852M with 12F 6D 1G

Right now they have no depth defensemen in the AHL so going 6D losing Timmins seems risky.  Hollowell (6), Benn (14), Timmins (25), Mete (11), Kral (2), Muzzin (4) all played games last year before the Leafs did their deadline acquisitions.  Right now it would be Marshall Rafai as the first callup?  I'm sure a few guys will be signed to depth deals before training camp but if they aren't willing to move a big salary contract the little cuts of giving Reaves 1.35M instead of trying to keep him closer to 1M, Giving Kampf 2.4M, they really could use that extra 1-500K when this tight against the cap.
 
Frank E said:
L K said:
What are we thinking Samsonov's arbitration hearing will play out as.

Not a lot of goaltender history making it through to arbitration.

Anton Forsberg in 2019 got a 25K raise to 775K.  He was coming off a 2.97 GAA .908 SV% season over 35 games for Chicago when Carolina took him to salary arbitration.

That's it that I can see going back to 2013.  A few goalies went to arbitration and signed deals before the arbitrator ruling (Bernier with the Leafs, Holtby with the Capitals).
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I'll say $3m.
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I think $3m is right.
 
L K said:
Right now they have no depth defensemen in the AHL so going 6D losing Timmins seems risky.  Hollowell (6), Benn (14), Timmins (25), Mete (11), Kral (2), Muzzin (4) all played games last year before the Leafs did their deadline acquisitions.  Right now it would be Marshall Rafai as the first callup?
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Lajoie and Lagesson both have the most NHL (albeit limited) and professional experience so I'd imagine they'd be the first two options up. Wouldn't mind a Jordie Benn type signing (or if he's not retiring just literally Jordie Benn again) to add a different element to our call-up options.
 
L K said:
I really like the additions of Domi and Bertuzzi...more just ok with Klingberg but I'm struggling to see how his lineup works if Samsonov comes in at 3.5M.  Even at 3M we are still forced to move someone unless we can convince (Anaheim?) to take on his full salary.

If they buyout Murray alone they have have 2.365M in cap space with a 12F 7D 1G lineup

If they trade Murray alone they have 3.052M in cap space with a 12F 7D 1G lineup

If they buyout Murray and trade Lafferty (replace with McMann) they have 2.752M 12F 7D 1G and 2.752M

If they buyout Murray and trade Timmins (go 12F 6D) they have 3.462M with 12F 6D 1G

If they buyout Murray and trade Lafferty and Timmins they have 3.852M with 12F 6D 1G
Click to expand...

I think the simplest answer is you buyout Murray, sign a 7D like Scott Harrington, Patrick Nemeth, Simon Benoit for league minimum ($775k), test the trade market on Timmins and move him for a pick if you can but if nobody seems that interested just hold onto him through camp and attempt to get him through waivers (very unlikely I think but crazier things have happened, sup ABB). That would leave $2.727mil in cap space for Samsonov, roughly in the ball park with the Ullmark contract I brought up but at that point you're kinda hoping Samsonov does the team a solid to keep everyone else together.

Bertuzzi-Matthews-Marner
Domi-Tavares-Nylander
Knies-Kampf-Jarnkrok
McMann-Lafferty-Reaves

Rielly-Brodie
McCabe-Liljegren
Giordano-Klingberg
Harringinton

Samsonov
Woll

Like you said, you could add another $350k to Samsonov's salary to bump him above $3mil by swapping Lafferty for Holmberg. Although I think that'd be a hit to our forward depth.

The less simple answer is bringing up that a lot of rumblings have Treliving still looking to add some more physicality/bigness to the defence, and the only realistic way that happens is by moving Brodie so that could also bring about some additional cap space.
 
That's plausible thinking but I am wondering why Samsonov would feel like he owes the Leafs a favor because Dubas signed Murray to a crappy contract.
 
Zanzibar Buck-Buck McFate said:
That's plausible thinking but I am wondering why Samsonov would feel like he owes the Leafs a favor because Dubas signed Murray to a crappy contract.
Click to expand...

Maybe painting it as a favour or solid isn't the best way to put it, but we've seen lots of examples in the league where a team basically strong-armed a RFA into taking a bit less than what they should have simply by saying "hey, this is literally all the cap space I have available for you in our projections, what do you want to do here".

If the Leafs hold firm there Samsonov's only recourse would be to go through arbitration where the Leafs would start their case by pointing out that among the 31 goalies who played 40+ games in 21/22 Samsonov finished 30th in Sv%.
 
Zanzibar Buck-Buck McFate said:
That's plausible thinking but I am wondering why Samsonov would feel like he owes the Leafs a favor because Dubas signed Murray to a crappy contract.
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Dubas didn?t sign Murray to any contract.
 
Joe said:
Zanzibar Buck-Buck McFate said:
That's plausible thinking but I am wondering why Samsonov would feel like he owes the Leafs a favor because Dubas signed Murray to a crappy contract.
Click to expand...

Dubas didn?t sign Murray to any contract.
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Lol. I was waiting for this post
 
https://twitter.com/MapleLeafs/status/1681364519166046209

https://twitter.com/DhaliwalSports/status/1681366168215646209
 
I don't really have a particular point about the guy but it's pretty wild that Dave Morrison, the teams current "Director of Player Personnel", has been with the organization since 2004. He's been under SEVEN general managers now.

edit: Mike Penny, current just a "pro scout" but was once a long time ago the "Director of Player Personnel", has him beat having been hired way back in 2000 by Quinn.

edit2: Ok, last one. Garth Malarchuk was hired by the Leafs as an amateur scout way, way back in 1991. He left the Leafs in 1998 to be the head coach of the Kelowna Rockets for 1.5 seasons. He promptly returned to the Leafs as an amateur scout in 2000 and has been in that position ever since. Last season was his 30th with the team. He turns 69 years old on Saturday.
 
CarltonTheBear said:
I don't really have a particular point about the guy but it's pretty wild that Dave Morrison, the teams current "Director of Player Personnel", has been with the organization since 2004. He's been under SEVEN general managers now.

edit: Mike Penny, current just a "pro scout" but was once a long time ago the "Director of Player Personnel", has him beat having been hired way back in 2000 by Quinn.

edit2: Ok, last one. Garth Malarchuk was hired by the Leafs as an amateur scout way, way back in 1991. He left the Leafs in 1998 to be the head coach of the Kelowna Rockets for 1.5 seasons. He promptly returned to the Leafs as an amateur scout in 2000 and has been in that position ever since. Last season was his 30th with the team. He turns 69 years old on Saturday.
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Thommie Bergman has been with the club for quite some time too, not sure exactly when

This article from 2001 mentions him a european scout:

https://www.cbc.ca/sports/hockey/leafs-look-for-gems-in-draft-1.293780

His elite prospects page says he was with the ducks until at least 97/98 but is missing until 05/06 after that:

https://www.eliteprospects.com/staff/624/thommie-bergman

So it seems Bergman joined in either 99/00 or 00/01

Edit:

found this:

http://www.hockeynut.com/0304/tortrans19972003.html

Looks like Thommie joined in September of 1999.
 
CarltonTheBear said:
I don't really have a particular point about the guy but it's pretty wild that Dave Morrison, the teams current "Director of Player Personnel", has been with the organization since 2004. He's been under SEVEN general managers now.
Click to expand...

Being in charge of player/personnel seems like one of those jobs that's not going to have a consistent set of duties from one organization to the next so I'm guessing just being a good guy to have around is enough to secure your place there.
 
CarltonTheBear said:
I don't really have a particular point about the guy but it's pretty wild that Dave Morrison, the teams current "Director of Player Personnel", has been with the organization since 2004. He's been under SEVEN general managers now.

edit: Mike Penny, current just a "pro scout" but was once a long time ago the "Director of Player Personnel", has him beat having been hired way back in 2000 by Quinn.

edit2: Ok, last one. Garth Malarchuk was hired by the Leafs as an amateur scout way, way back in 1991. He left the Leafs in 1998 to be the head coach of the Kelowna Rockets for 1.5 seasons. He promptly returned to the Leafs as an amateur scout in 2000 and has been in that position ever since. Last season was his 30th with the team. He turns 69 years old on Saturday.
Click to expand...

Most people don't want the pressure, hours, and spotlight of being in the bigger chairs.  It's not unusual that companies don't promote these kinds of folks if they don't really want to be in more stressful positions.
 
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