2024 Offseason Thread: Changes

[herman]

https://x.com/BR_OpenIce/status/1790484186253394308
Canada was up against Austria 6-1 and uh... let it get to overtime. But good thing captain clutch was there.

 

[WhatIfGodWasALeaf]

https://twitter.com/BR_OpenIce/status/1790484186253394308
Canada was up against Austria 6-1 and uh... let it get to overtime. But good thing captain clutch was there.

Trade Value!!!

 

[Frank E]

https://twitter.com/BR_OpenIce/status/1790484186253394308
Canada was up against Austria 6-1 and uh... let it get to overtime. But good thing captain clutch was there.

Trade Value!!!

It's like we share a brain.

 

[herman]

JT is actually the underperforming player I don?t think it makes sense to trade.

 

[cw]

JT is actually the underperforming player I don?t think it makes sense to trade.

I think he tries his heart out.
He hit like crazy.
Best faceoff guy in the league or right up there.

But his ppg falls from .95 in the regular season to .67 in the playoffs
Arguably, he's the weakest link in the core 4 when it comes to scoring in the playoffs.

And he's been tapering off in the regular season - some of that this season was him taking the checking line center role - which he also did in the 1st four games against the Bruins. There is some explanation for it.

In preseason, he logged one of the faster skating times - worked on it over the summer. He also seems to skate a lot as I vaguely recall from some stat I saw a while ago.

A year from now, you'll have a core 3 in their prime and his big contract off the books - maybe in a lesser role for much less dough.

Marner is their leading playoff scorer & playoff powerplay scorer. If they're worried about scoring in the playoffs you usually do not erase the top scorer to solve that problem. You give him some guys to play with that are better at scoring. In 2024, Marner got Tavares for the 1st four games and they were a checking line against Pastrnak - with a lot of d-zone starts. Then, they move him to be with Domi & Bertuzzi - which put two distributors of the puck on one line with a 2nd tier finisher. And people wonder why/how his scoring got compromised? It may not be fully explained by that but that was a hunk of the problem - aside from Bruins checking and goaltending.

I'd patch it up in goal, with dmen and a couple of forwards. If they do a decent job of that, they're close to last year: a top 6 contender or so with a shot to steal it if their goalie gets hot. The following year, when Tavares dough comes off, they can add more and fix what didn't work.

There are no guarantees. But something like that allows them to knock on the door a few times with the core 3.

McCabe-Brodie were seemingly an excellent pair going into the 2022-23 playoffs. The wheels fell off. I saw Brodie tapered off this season. I've never really felt I grasped what the heck happened there. McCabe shows up this season and he has me wondering if he's top 5 - he's not top 4. He obviously turned it around.

Rielly had a great playoff last season. He seemed to be going ok this year. Around the time of his suspension, he seemed to taper off and never recovered. If Rielly played in this year's playoffs like he did last year, the Leafs beat the Bruins. So whatever happened there is troubling. I'd sure want to better understand that as I reconstruct the dmen ...

 

[Guilt Trip]

Don't forget JT was matched to against the Pasta line in the playoffs.  His main job was defending and did a good job overall. 

 

[ZBBM]

Don't forget JT was matched to against the Pasta line in the playoffs.  His main job was defending and did a good job overall. 

Aside from the series-winning-goal (yes, big exception) Pastrnak didn't look overly dangerous as in years past.

 

[Bender]

Marner to Rangers for Fox and a 1st

Doesn't make sense to me.
Who will the Rangers offensive dman be?
Gustavsson?

I do not think Marner will provide a past Norris winner in his prime plus a 1st in return.
Probably the 1st should come with Marner to the Rangers

The 1st isn't like to help win a Cup during Matthews next 4 years.
They would have to trade it for a player closer to their prime in the next 4 years.

To me, there are a whole bunch of issues to overcome trying to move Marner:
- their negotiating position isn't great due to the media, playoff results, etc
- they have to find a team Marner is willing to go to
- they have to overcome Marner's agent's preference for his player to become a UFA
- they have to find a team where there is a talent fit and a way to work it into the other team's cap space
- whatever they come up with has to work within the Leafs cap space & talent mix
- they cannot rely on a lot of youth/picks coming back because it won't help Matthews et al in the next 4 years before Matthews contract expires - they would probably have to flip them
- the sign and trade can't happen before July 1st so some of the prime UFAs may be gone for next season before they get cap space from such a trade - which hurts in the short term
- if they get rid of Marner, they're losing Tavares contract next season. Tarares is the one who has really dived in the playoffs to .63ppg - so a Marner trade & age could have them potentially going from core 4 to core 2.
- the combination of the return on the trade plus cap space (UFA market is not great) is very likely a reduction in the overall talent on the NHL roster next season. They're trading the guy with the highest playoff ppg since he arrived ... to improve their scoring in the playoffs even thought the prior two playoff years were 3.43 & 3.00 GFA.
- that previous point contradicts this: Shanahan needs something to work quickly or he won't be getting renewed next year. Treliving is not far behind him in that regard. So those are also constraints on the deal: they have to deliver in the playoffs soon.

To me, the heavy odds are that this is a rubik's cube talent/cap problem that they won't be able to get the colors to line up like they have to - to make it work in the short time frame that they need.

I have doubts getting rid of your highest ppg playoff scorer will improve playoff offense. Particularly when that offense delivered 3.43GFA and 3.00GFA in '23 & '22 and was hurt and in a more defensive posture against Pastrnak for '24.

To me, the biggest impact on this team going further in the playoffs would be adding a reliable goalie. Followed in short order by shoring up the team Dmen group - defensively & offensively. We knew that last summer. They have to plan on a 4 year window with Matthews. Dmen & goalies take the longest to develop. So they should try to make sure that foundation is quickly there. Forwards are far easier to add and integrate in a shorter window.

Futures like picks can be used to deal down the road, which the Leafs have very little.

 

[Bender]

JT is actually the underperforming player I don?t think it makes sense to trade.

I think he tries his heart out.
He hit like crazy.
Best faceoff guy in the league or right up there.

But his ppg falls from .95 in the regular season to .67 in the playoffs
Arguably, he's the weakest link in the core 4 when it comes to scoring in the playoffs.

And he's been tapering off in the regular season - some of that this season was him taking the checking line center role - which he also did in the 1st four games against the Bruins. There is some explanation for it.

In preseason, he logged one of the faster skating times - worked on it over the summer. He also seems to skate a lot as I vaguely recall from some stat I saw a while ago.

A year from now, you'll have a core 3 in their prime and his big contract off the books - maybe in a lesser role for much less dough.

Marner is their leading playoff scorer & playoff powerplay scorer. If they're worried about scoring in the playoffs you usually do not erase the top scorer to solve that problem. You give him some guys to play with that are better at scoring. In 2024, Marner got Tavares for the 1st four games and they were a checking line against Pastrnak - with a lot of d-zone starts. Then, they move him to be with Domi & Bertuzzi - which put two distributors of the puck on one line with a 2nd tier finisher. And people wonder why/how his scoring got compromised? It may not be fully explained by that but that was a hunk of the problem - aside from Bruins checking and goaltending.

I'd patch it up in goal, with dmen and a couple of forwards. If they do a decent job of that, they're close to last year: a top 6 contender or so with a shot to steal it if their goalie gets hot. The following year, when Tavares dough comes off, they can add more and fix what didn't work.

There are no guarantees. But something like that allows them to knock on the door a few times with the core 3.

McCabe-Brodie were seemingly an excellent pair going into the 2022-23 playoffs. The wheels fell off. I saw Brodie tapered off this season. I've never really felt I grasped what the heck happened there. McCabe shows up this season and he has me wondering if he's top 5 - he's not top 4. He obviously turned it around.

Rielly had a great playoff last season. He seemed to be going ok this year. Around the time of his suspension, he seemed to taper off and never recovered. If Rielly played in this year's playoffs like he did last year, the Leafs beat the Bruins. So whatever happened there is troubling. I'd sure want to better understand that as I reconstruct the dmen ...

I don't see Marner resigning let alone with any modicum of cap hit that the fan base is likely to swallow.

 

[herman]

Why we should keep Tavares at full freight for the remainder of the coming season:

Politically, he is still the (corporate) face of the roster. Luke Fox indicated that in the dressing room, Matthews basically runs the leadership group, but having the guy who chose Toronto in a high-profile UFA move as the front-facing representative is still a plus. By and large, he has lived up to the billing and the tail-end here was expected.

On-ice, his face off ability and willingness to take on the scut work even with his profile has a trickle-down effect when your star captain embraces the checking role to free up the firepower up front. His playstyle (and weaknesses) actually benefit from a grindier style and it's up to the coaching staff to continue to put him in position to succeed.

The Leafs are turning over to a new leaf era, and this is the guy that uses his experience and cachet and home/family to make new prospects feel welcome on the team. Sewering the relationship for one year of (some) cap savings makes no sense given that
[*] he has on-ice value (not commensurate with 11M, but he's not 0M)
[*] it would cost assets and cap-retention to move him, let alone brand costs in jettisoning the family guy that chose Toronto
[*] trending towards re-signing with the team he loves in a lesser role at a lesser cost

He could be the eventual Kampf replacement, where with the right cheap b-hole wingers, a Tavares-led grind line would be very annoying to face. Unlike Spezza, you can envision an identity for such a line very easily.

He needs to change his style a bit: recognizing his diminished already-unimpressive footspeed and not trying to dangle through 3 defenders solo. The PP coach has to stop trying to run the entry play through Tavares (again trying to dangle through a set defense). Chip and (letting others) chase suits his impressive hands and strong stick well, especially with his finishing ability in tight. Lots of super skilled guys who have slowed down are still doing well when properly supported with the right mix (Pavelski, Van Riemsdyk, Maroon sort of).

 

[Arn]

Yeah, I?m very much on board keeping Tavares to the end of his career if he so wishes.

As you say it?s just a case of utilising him properly as the years progress.

I do think at some point he?ll hand the C over to Matthews as well, though.

 

[bustaheims]

Yeah. As much as freeing up the cap space would be good, unless a team comes along with a strong offer for him, there's not enough benefit to moving him.

 

[cw]

JT is actually the underperforming player I don?t think it makes sense to trade.

I think he tries his heart out.
He hit like crazy.
Best faceoff guy in the league or right up there.

But his ppg falls from .95 in the regular season to .67 in the playoffs
Arguably, he's the weakest link in the core 4 when it comes to scoring in the playoffs.

And he's been tapering off in the regular season - some of that this season was him taking the checking line center role - which he also did in the 1st four games against the Bruins. There is some explanation for it.

In preseason, he logged one of the faster skating times - worked on it over the summer. He also seems to skate a lot as I vaguely recall from some stat I saw a while ago.

A year from now, you'll have a core 3 in their prime and his big contract off the books - maybe in a lesser role for much less dough.

Marner is their leading playoff scorer & playoff powerplay scorer. If they're worried about scoring in the playoffs you usually do not erase the top scorer to solve that problem. You give him some guys to play with that are better at scoring. In 2024, Marner got Tavares for the 1st four games and they were a checking line against Pastrnak - with a lot of d-zone starts. Then, they move him to be with Domi & Bertuzzi - which put two distributors of the puck on one line with a 2nd tier finisher. And people wonder why/how his scoring got compromised? It may not be fully explained by that but that was a hunk of the problem - aside from Bruins checking and goaltending.

I'd patch it up in goal, with dmen and a couple of forwards. If they do a decent job of that, they're close to last year: a top 6 contender or so with a shot to steal it if their goalie gets hot. The following year, when Tavares dough comes off, they can add more and fix what didn't work.

There are no guarantees. But something like that allows them to knock on the door a few times with the core 3.

McCabe-Brodie were seemingly an excellent pair going into the 2022-23 playoffs. The wheels fell off. I saw Brodie tapered off this season. I've never really felt I grasped what the heck happened there. McCabe shows up this season and he has me wondering if he's top 5 - he's not top 4. He obviously turned it around.

Rielly had a great playoff last season. He seemed to be going ok this year. Around the time of his suspension, he seemed to taper off and never recovered. If Rielly played in this year's playoffs like he did last year, the Leafs beat the Bruins. So whatever happened there is troubling. I'd sure want to better understand that as I reconstruct the dmen ...

I don't see Marner resigning let alone with any modicum of cap hit that the fan base is likely to swallow.

I've only been watching about 60 years.
I honestly cannot ever recall management or ownership paying much serious attention to what the fan base thought about how much a player should be paid. Usually, like now, management are too busy looking over their shoulder at ownership dangling a pink slip to worry much about what the fans thought players should be paid. Around the MLSE water cooler, that notion would probably get a few laughs.

I cannot recall a players agent seriously soliciting the fan base's input in contract negotiations either.

The fans are fickle. If Marner scores in game 7 OT, they'll be trying to erect a statue. Pastrnak scores on a play Paul Maurice & another past Leafs assistant coach question was Marner's responsibility and the fans want him tarred and feathered. They're howling that Marner is responsible for the lack of playoff scoring and should be gotten rid of because of it overlooking that he leads the Leafs in playoff scoring and the forwards in playoff +/-, etc since he showed up. Marner understands the 'God-like' worship and 'Demon-like' hate that can change on a play. What coaching and management should be doing is standing up for their asset. If they don't do that, I wouldn't blame Marner for letting his contract expire without a trade. They would be getting exactly what they deserve for their conduct. They're supposed to be a team that stands up for each other.

For the record, I was not a big fan of Marner being drafted because of his size. I was worried about his ability to compete at the NHL level with the bigger bodies, etc.

I looked at some Leafs history. Here's where these Leafs greats ranked in NHL scoring over their first 8 years in the NHL:
Matthews 7th
Mahovlich 8th
Sittler 10th
Marner 10th
Keon 11th
McDonald 13th
Sundin 15th
Gilmour 19th
Vaive 26th
Nylander 28th
Kessel 33rd
Clark 160th (injured some)

When you look at all the guys he's around in offense in today's NHL, his current pay is commensurate with those players - you might bicker about a few hundred grand while ignoring that he PK's and plays two ways.

His playoff ppg, which leads his team over 8 years, is .88 which is 27th in the league (30+ playoff games played) and ties him with Alex Ovechkin and Conn Smythe winner Ryan O'Reilly during those 8 years. Not too shabby in the games that matter most.

I'm still not a gigantic fan of Marner's but it is tough to disrespect what he has done since he showed up. He's clearly one of the better players to ever pull on a Leafs jersey. He deserves to be paid accordingly. The chances of them recovering his full asset value in a trade under these circumstances is not good and would probably compromise Matthews' chances of ever leading a parade in Toronto. You do not get guys like this too often. Management would be wise to straighten out the fans and protect their asset - for their own self preservation if nothing else.

 

[Frank E]

I'd have to imagine that any Marner deal would have to come with an extension in order for him to waive, right?

 

[dappleganger]

I'd have to imagine that any Marner deal would have to come with an extension in order for him to waive, right?

I would presume that would be the case. Doesn't have to be, It'd be up to Mitch, but any team trading for Mitch, they're going to want him log-term.

 

[CarltonTheBear]

He needs to change his style a bit: recognizing his diminished already-unimpressive footspeed and not trying to dangle through 3 defenders solo. The PP coach has to stop trying to run the entry play through Tavares (again trying to dangle through a set defense). Chip and (letting others) chase suits his impressive hands and strong stick well, especially with his finishing ability in tight. Lots of super skilled guys who have slowed down are still doing well when properly supported with the right mix (Pavelski, Van Riemsdyk, Maroon sort of).

Not quite the same thing but Berube also oversaw Alex Steen transition from a guy averaging top-6 and top PP minutes in 17/18 to more of a 4th line and PP2 role immediately after (including during their Cup run). That happened in Berube's first year as head coach when Steen was 34, Tavares turns 34 before the start of the season.

Tavares is certainly not dropping to L4 this coming season but a change in role definitely looks needed.

 

[herman]

He needs to change his style a bit: recognizing his diminished already-unimpressive footspeed and not trying to dangle through 3 defenders solo. The PP coach has to stop trying to run the entry play through Tavares (again trying to dangle through a set defense). Chip and (letting others) chase suits his impressive hands and strong stick well, especially with his finishing ability in tight. Lots of super skilled guys who have slowed down are still doing well when properly supported with the right mix (Pavelski, Van Riemsdyk, Maroon sort of).

Not quite the same thing but Berube also oversaw Alex Steen transition from a guy averaging top-6 and top PP minutes in 17/18 to more of a 4th line and PP2 role immediately after (including during their Cup run). That happened in Berube's first year as head coach when Steen was 34, Tavares turns 34 before the start of the season.

Tavares is certainly not dropping to L4 this coming season but a change in role definitely looks needed.

It doesn't take much squinting to see something like this working, even without Marner

Knies-Matthews-Domi
Robertson-Holmberg-Nylander
McMann-Tavares-Jarnkrok
Dewar-Kampf-x

L2 as written is not ideal, but if Marner is traded for a legit 2C (Elias Pettersson lol), you're cooking just fine. Or the new coach actually follows through with a Nylander 2C experiment, or Minten has a revelation. The middle 6 lines are just different flavours of similar L2 value.

 

[CarltonTheBear]

It doesn't take much squinting to see something like this working, even without Marner

Knies-Matthews-Domi
Robertson-Holmberg-Nylander
McMann-Tavares-Jarnkrok
Dewar-Kampf-x

L2 as written is not ideal, but if Marner is traded for a legit 2C (Elias Pettersson lol), you're cooking just fine. Or the new coach actually follows through with a Nylander 2C experiment, or Minten has a revelation. The middle 6 lines are just different flavours of similar L2 value.

Yeah I mean if Marner's gone there should be enough cap space to pluck a decent RW or C from the UFA pile to make things look better.

 

[cabber24]

He needs to change his style a bit: recognizing his diminished already-unimpressive footspeed and not trying to dangle through 3 defenders solo. The PP coach has to stop trying to run the entry play through Tavares (again trying to dangle through a set defense). Chip and (letting others) chase suits his impressive hands and strong stick well, especially with his finishing ability in tight. Lots of super skilled guys who have slowed down are still doing well when properly supported with the right mix (Pavelski, Van Riemsdyk, Maroon sort of).

Not quite the same thing but Berube also oversaw Alex Steen transition from a guy averaging top-6 and top PP minutes in 17/18 to more of a 4th line and PP2 role immediately after (including during their Cup run). That happened in Berube's first year as head coach when Steen was 34, Tavares turns 34 before the start of the season.

Tavares is certainly not dropping to L4 this coming season but a change in role definitely looks needed.

It doesn't take much squinting to see something like this working, even without Marner

Knies-Matthews-Domi
Robertson-Holmberg-Nylander
McMann-Tavares-Jarnkrok
Dewar-Kampf-x

L2 as written is not ideal, but if Marner is traded for a legit 2C (Elias Pettersson lol), you're cooking just fine. Or the new coach actually follows through with a Nylander 2C experiment, or Minten has a revelation. The middle 6 lines are just different flavours of similar L2 value.

A better goalie tandem and an improved D line as well with the 8 figures reallocated.

 

[cabber24]

JT is actually the underperforming player I don?t think it makes sense to trade.

I think he tries his heart out.
He hit like crazy.
Best faceoff guy in the league or right up there.

But his ppg falls from .95 in the regular season to .67 in the playoffs
Arguably, he's the weakest link in the core 4 when it comes to scoring in the playoffs.

And he's been tapering off in the regular season - some of that this season was him taking the checking line center role - which he also did in the 1st four games against the Bruins. There is some explanation for it.

In preseason, he logged one of the faster skating times - worked on it over the summer. He also seems to skate a lot as I vaguely recall from some stat I saw a while ago.

A year from now, you'll have a core 3 in their prime and his big contract off the books - maybe in a lesser role for much less dough.

Marner is their leading playoff scorer & playoff powerplay scorer. If they're worried about scoring in the playoffs you usually do not erase the top scorer to solve that problem. You give him some guys to play with that are better at scoring. In 2024, Marner got Tavares for the 1st four games and they were a checking line against Pastrnak - with a lot of d-zone starts. Then, they move him to be with Domi & Bertuzzi - which put two distributors of the puck on one line with a 2nd tier finisher. And people wonder why/how his scoring got compromised? It may not be fully explained by that but that was a hunk of the problem - aside from Bruins checking and goaltending.

I'd patch it up in goal, with dmen and a couple of forwards. If they do a decent job of that, they're close to last year: a top 6 contender or so with a shot to steal it if their goalie gets hot. The following year, when Tavares dough comes off, they can add more and fix what didn't work.

There are no guarantees. But something like that allows them to knock on the door a few times with the core 3.

McCabe-Brodie were seemingly an excellent pair going into the 2022-23 playoffs. The wheels fell off. I saw Brodie tapered off this season. I've never really felt I grasped what the heck happened there. McCabe shows up this season and he has me wondering if he's top 5 - he's not top 4. He obviously turned it around.

Rielly had a great playoff last season. He seemed to be going ok this year. Around the time of his suspension, he seemed to taper off and never recovered. If Rielly played in this year's playoffs like he did last year, the Leafs beat the Bruins. So whatever happened there is troubling. I'd sure want to better understand that as I reconstruct the dmen ...

I don't see Marner resigning let alone with any modicum of cap hit that the fan base is likely to swallow.

I've only been watching about 60 years.
I honestly cannot ever recall management or ownership paying much serious attention to what the fan base thought about how much a player should be paid. Usually, like now, management are too busy looking over their shoulder at ownership dangling a pink slip to worry much about what the fans thought players should be paid. Around the MLSE water cooler, that notion would probably get a few laughs.

I cannot recall a players agent seriously soliciting the fan base's input in contract negotiations either.

The fans are fickle. If Marner scores in game 7 OT, they'll be trying to erect a statue. Pastrnak scores on a play Paul Maurice & another past Leafs assistant coach question was Marner's responsibility and the fans want him tarred and feathered. They're howling that Marner is responsible for the lack of playoff scoring and should be gotten rid of because of it overlooking that he leads the Leafs in playoff scoring and the forwards in playoff +/-, etc since he showed up. Marner understands the 'God-like' worship and 'Demon-like' hate that can change on a play. What coaching and management should be doing is standing up for their asset. If they don't do that, I wouldn't blame Marner for letting his contract expire without a trade. They would be getting exactly what they deserve for their conduct. They're supposed to be a team that stands up for each other.

For the record, I was not a big fan of Marner being drafted because of his size. I was worried about his ability to compete at the NHL level with the bigger bodies, etc.

I looked at some Leafs history. Here's where these Leafs greats ranked in NHL scoring over their first 8 years in the NHL:
Matthews 7th
Mahovlich 8th
Sittler 10th
Marner 10th
Keon 11th
McDonald 13th
Sundin 15th
Gilmour 19th
Vaive 26th
Nylander 28th
Kessel 33rd
Clark 160th (injured some)

When you look at all the guys he's around in offense in today's NHL, his current pay is commensurate with those players - you might bicker about a few hundred grand while ignoring that he PK's and plays two ways.

His playoff ppg, which leads his team over 8 years, is .88 which is 27th in the league (30+ playoff games played) and ties him with Alex Ovechkin and Conn Smythe winner Ryan O'Reilly during those 8 years. Not too shabby in the games that matter most.

I'm still not a gigantic fan of Marner's but it is tough to disrespect what he has done since he showed up. He's clearly one of the better players to ever pull on a Leafs jersey. He deserves to be paid accordingly. The chances of them recovering his full asset value in a trade under these circumstances is not good and would probably compromise Matthews' chances of ever leading a parade in Toronto. You do not get guys like this too often. Management would be wise to straighten out the fans and protect their asset - for their own self preservation if nothing else.

It's less about him, it's more about the reallocation of the salary cap. Tavares will not be paid 8 figures beyond next year so you choose one out of the remaining three 8-figure contracts to go and everyone is choosing Marner. They give their reasoning which is a shit-list of everything bad about him and it comes across as attacking him. The bullying of Marner by some is also done out of frustration and with the intention of pushing him out. I am okay with the bullying approach because management has not addressed the cap allocation issues and making life difficult for Marner may force their hand. If he's resigned, I don't see any of the results changing with this team.

The team's formula doesn't work and a reallocation is necessary.