2024 Offseason Thread: Changes

[ZBBM]

This is all very interesting conversation.  To me, it boils down to: it's hard as hell to get elite talent.  You do everything you can to keep it because you almost surely aren't going to instantly replace.  If you accept that, #1 on the list of things you can do is change the coaching if things aren't working.  The Leafs pulled the trigger on that.  I think it's crazy not to give Berube a chance to see if he can get a Marner-inclusive team to perform better in the playoffs ? everyone, not just Marner.

I think that's exactly what will happen.  Unless Marner decides he can't stand Berube and wants out now, which I suppose is always possible.

 

[CarltonTheBear]

To me, it boils down to: it's hard as hell to get elite talent.  You do everything you can to keep it because you almost surely aren't going to instantly replace. If you accept that, #1 on the list of things you can do is change the coaching if things aren't working.  The Leafs pulled the trigger on that.  I think it's crazy not to give Berube a chance to see if he can get a Marner-inclusive team to perform better in the playoffs ? everyone, not just Marner.

I think this is definitely true but it's a little more complicated when you already have 2 other elite talents, at least one of whom is definitely elite-ier. In a cap world surely there just has to be a point where too much (expensive) elite talent can actually be a hinderance. I'm all for letting Berube get a shot with this group to try and preserve Dubas' "we can and we will" mantra and even if next season doesn't result in a Cup I'm really hoping we see a legitimate breakthrough with him, but if it doesn't some very hard questions need to be asked.

 

[herman]

I don't see how letting him walk for nothing wouldn't be somewhat catastrophic from an asset management standpoint.

I think an argument could be made that the cap space freed up by Marner walking could be a valuable asset as well.

Sometimes letting a star player walk for nothing (which is actually oodles and oodles of cap space) is just the right play.

Oodles of cap space is only as valuable as the free agent/trade market allows, so as long as the GM is not a total dunce (which I'm not 100% sold on one way or another), it does at least present the possibility of flexibility we haven't had in many years.

I'd like a Marner trade to centre around a prospect on the cusp of breaking out. I think I had a poorly conceived Robertson + Holl to Dallas idea awhile back (for Klingberg lol) that included Wyatt Johnston as some sort of throw in (I was sorting capfriendly by position), prior to him lighting it up this season. If a team wants Marner, a Johnston from a year ago would be such a target. The Leafs could really use a centreman that can generate chances off the rush.

 

[Bullfrog]

I'm a little numb to whatever happens with Marner at this point tbh. The options are basically:

1) Trade him now for a somewhat similarly high-end player in the league
2) Trade him now in more of a 4 quarters for a dollar type trade to boost the teams depth, futures, and cap space
3) Let him play out 24/25 under Berube and re-sign him to as fair a contract as possible depending on how well he performs
4) Let him play out 24/25 under Berube and let him walk either due to his performance (or lack of) or simply because the two sides can't come to reasonable terms

I don't think any of them would be catastrophically bad for the Leafs. They all have their pro's and con's, some surely a little more or less than others, but a good team/organization/GM should still be able to make the most out of any of them.

I don't see how letting him walk for nothing wouldn't be somewhat catastrophic from an asset management standpoint.

I think an argument could be made that the cap space freed up by Marner walking could be a valuable asset as well.

Ya. Getting assets back would be great. But, why not go for another cup run and if it doesn't work out, he walks.

 

[Bullfrog]

...

We're unlikely to get anything remotely Marner-level in a trade return, but an aggregate of above-adequate pieces filling roster slots that need to be addressed, be it directly through the trade components or an indirect combination of returning pieces + open cap space, will raise the tide of the team's overall performance in the playoffs.
...

I find it curious how you can state this so confidently.

I have maaaany posts about how the way Marner naturally plays (and Keefe's coaching leaned hard into it) nerfs the offense in the playoffs. Based on the cap allocation and deployment, the depth players were basically told from the get-go you're just here to kill clock for Matthews/Marner so don't do anything.

Marner's a really good player, but he's trying to play a different game and he has the puck a lot. If different players have the puck instead, we get a different result and I'm fairly confident the shooting abilities of Matthews, Nylander, Tavares, BOBBY MCMANN will carry the mail if the puck is moving more directly.

So, uh, herman says so, so it must be true?

This part is ridiculous:
"the depth players were basically told from the get-go you're just here to kill clock for Matthews/Marner so don't do anything."

How is this different from any team in the league that has players of Matthews and Marner's capabilities?

 

[CarltonTheBear]

I think I had a poorly conceived Robertson + Holl to Dallas idea awhile back (for Klingberg lol) that included Wyatt Johnston as some sort of throw in (I was sorting capfriendly by position), prior to him lighting it up this season.

Ah yes I remember pointing out how crazy that was lol.

 

[cw]

I'm a little numb to whatever happens with Marner at this point tbh. The options are basically:

1) Trade him now for a somewhat similarly high-end player in the league
2) Trade him now in more of a 4 quarters for a dollar type trade to boost the teams depth, futures, and cap space
3) Let him play out 24/25 under Berube and re-sign him to as fair a contract as possible depending on how well he performs
4) Let him play out 24/25 under Berube and let him walk either due to his performance (or lack of) or simply because the two sides can't come to reasonable terms

I don't think any of them would be catastrophically bad for the Leafs. They all have their pro's and con's, some surely a little more or less than others, but a good team/organization/GM should still be able to make the most out of any of them.

I don't see how letting him walk for nothing wouldn't be somewhat catastrophic from an asset management standpoint.

I think an argument could be made that the cap space freed up by Marner walking could be a valuable asset as well.

This year they have ~$19.4 mil cap space.

Next year, they'll have $51.8 mil cap space with Woll, Knies & Holmberg RFAs and with Marner, Tavares & McCabe UFAs. Some of that $51.8 will be consumed by signings this year.
Over the next 13 months, they're likely to have more cap space than they have had in a long time.
Cowan and Minten should economically fill a couple of roster spots by then.

A problem last year was the selection for UFA dmen dried up in a hurry. This year looks more promising though many could sign between now & July 1. UFA goalies don't look so hot this year - maybe Brossoit or Stolarz to tie them over. But there are potentially some good UFAs next year.
Those are the tough positions to develop. They should focus on them and use the core 4 to elevate some economical wingers.

 

[herman]

I think I had a poorly conceived Robertson + Holl to Dallas idea awhile back (for Klingberg lol) that included Wyatt Johnston as some sort of throw in (I was sorting capfriendly by position), prior to him lighting it up this season.

Ah yes I remember pointing out how crazy that was lol.

Now how can we trade Marner for Johnston+?

 

[herman]

So, uh, herman says so, so it must be true?

Well you asked how I could say it so confidently
But I'm not the only one who has observed this.

This part is ridiculous:
"the depth players were basically told from the get-go you're just here to kill clock for Matthews/Marner so don't do anything."

How is this different from any team in the league that has players of Matthews and Marner's capabilities?

I don't know how you can look at the rosters and the signings and the deployment under Dubas/Keefe and not see how that was the implicit design (and maybe explicit, I'm not in the dressing room). I don't know how you can hear Treliving's first comments being 'this is a team of 18' and the hiring of Berube as anything other than a direct response to how the team used to operate. Keefe was pretty consistently ride-or-die with Matthews-Marner and sacrificed good lines that were humming along to get Marner top minutes when he was puttering, and the team shed good depth players to keep this structure going.

 

[CarltonTheBear]

I think I had a poorly conceived Robertson + Holl to Dallas idea awhile back (for Klingberg lol) that included Wyatt Johnston as some sort of throw in (I was sorting capfriendly by position), prior to him lighting it up this season.

Ah yes I remember pointing out how crazy that was lol.

Now how can we trade Marner for Johnston+?

Probably something that involves a time machine.

 

[Palmateer29]

hm, we should see what their points rates look like with and without Matthews.

Maybe we should compare quality of Competition, goals for per 60, goals against per 60...
For those looking for the answers.
Q of C Marner 0.3331 Nylander 0.1386
GF/60 Marner 3.3391 Nylander 2.913
GA/60 Marner 2.2062 Nylander 2.9828

I think we should have looked at trading the 92 million dollar floater before signing that contract. I am pretty sure one of the two will fit into Berube's style of play and one will float back to the bench...

 

[Bender]

I don't see how letting him walk for nothing wouldn't be somewhat catastrophic from an asset management standpoint.

I think an argument could be made that the cap space freed up by Marner walking could be a valuable asset as well.

Sometimes letting a star player walk for nothing (which is actually oodles and oodles of cap space) is just the right play.

Oodles of cap space is only as valuable as the free agent/trade market allows, so as long as the GM is not a total dunce (which I'm not 100% sold on one way or another), it does at least present the possibility of flexibility we haven't had in many years.

I'd like a Marner trade to centre around a prospect on the cusp of breaking out. I think I had a poorly conceived Robertson + Holl to Dallas idea awhile back (for Klingberg lol) that included Wyatt Johnston as some sort of throw in (I was sorting capfriendly by position), prior to him lighting it up this season. If a team wants Marner, a Johnston from a year ago would be such a target. The Leafs could really use a centreman that can generate chances off the rush.

I was gonna say, if the idea remains that you can't build a team through free agency then you have to make trades. The Leafs have been trade, and to an extent, so risk averse with their current roster that we're caught in being a very mediocre team when they going gets tough, so to me letting elite talents walk when you could get cost controlled depth is important because it's sure not coming through the draft soon enough (although we keep saying that and look what all the first rounders like Seth Jarvis, Wyatt Johnston et al are doing for their teams, heck even Matthew Knies).

The Stars and Oilers are two faces of the same coin the Leafs could feasibly turn into but we can't stay as we are. I look at the Stars depth and I think "man, they can withstand attack and they can counter punch in a way that would be very hard to compete against." You can throw Florida into that mix too, although Bob is way more volatile. 

 

[herman]

I don't see how letting him walk for nothing wouldn't be somewhat catastrophic from an asset management standpoint.

I think an argument could be made that the cap space freed up by Marner walking could be a valuable asset as well.

Sometimes letting a star player walk for nothing (which is actually oodles and oodles of cap space) is just the right play.

Oodles of cap space is only as valuable as the free agent/trade market allows, so as long as the GM is not a total dunce (which I'm not 100% sold on one way or another), it does at least present the possibility of flexibility we haven't had in many years.

I'd like a Marner trade to centre around a prospect on the cusp of breaking out. I think I had a poorly conceived Robertson + Holl to Dallas idea awhile back (for Klingberg lol) that included Wyatt Johnston as some sort of throw in (I was sorting capfriendly by position), prior to him lighting it up this season. If a team wants Marner, a Johnston from a year ago would be such a target. The Leafs could really use a centreman that can generate chances off the rush.

I was gonna say, if the idea remains that you can't build a team through free agency then you have to make trades. The Leafs have been trade, and to an extent, so risk averse with their current roster that we're caught in being a very mediocre team when they going gets tough, so to me letting elite talents walk when you could get cost controlled depth is important because it's sure not coming through the draft soon enough (although we keep saying that and look what all the first rounders like Seth Jarvis, Wyatt Johnston et al are doing for their teams, heck even Matthew Knies).

The Stars and Oilers are two faces of the same coin the Leafs could feasibly turn into but we can't stay as we are. I look at the Stars depth and I think "man, they can withstand attack and they can counter punch in a way that would be very hard to compete against." You can throw Florida into that mix too, although Bob is way more volatile.

Just to augment your point, those three teams mentioned all have very robust rush offense games.

 

[herman]

hm, we should see what their points rates look like with and without Matthews.

Maybe we should compare quality of Competition, goals for per 60, goals against per 60...
For those looking for the answers.
Q of C Marner 0.3331 Nylander 0.1386
GF/60 Marner 3.3391 Nylander 2.913
GA/60 Marner 2.2062 Nylander 2.9828

I think we should have looked at trading the 92 million dollar floater before signing that contract. I am pretty sure one of the two will fit into Berube's style of play and one will float back to the bench...

https://www.vancouverisawesome.com/courier-archive/news/why-quality-of-competition-doesnt-matter-to-analytics-experts-anymore-3082197

Here?s the issue: most hockey analysts have come to the conclusion that Quality of Competition doesn?t matter anywhere near as much as people think it does.

?It matters, on average, about three or four times less than quality of teammates does,? said Micah Blake McCurdy, ?even after you take into account how you have five opponents at 5v5 but only four teammates.?

Now Marner is clearly the better defensive winger, and Keefe recognized this in putting him with Matthews regularly. You have to recognize that factor when going through his stats.

Marner doesn?t look nearly as good without Matthews. Matthews produces about the same without Marner.

 

[cw]

Sportsnet: Canada Revenue Agency disputes Leafs captain John Tavares' argument in tax case

But the case could also have a bearing on the ability of Canadian professional sports teams to lure players north of the border by structuring their compensation with signing bonuses, an increasingly common practice in the big leagues.

The CRA ?denies that any amount referred to as a ?signing bonus? was a signing bonus or an inducement payment,? the government said in a response to Tavares? tax appeal, filed last week in the Tax Court of Canada.

It adds, ?the amount of USD $70,890,000 was not paid to [Tavares] as consideration for entering into, or as an inducement to sign, the Contract.?

Under a Canada-U.S. tax treaty, signing bonuses and other inducements for athletes, artists, actors and musicians get special treatment and are taxed at a low 15 per cent rate. But if all of the money paid to Tavares under the seven-year deal with the Leafs was treated as normal income, it would likely be taxed at the top marginal federal rate of 33 per cent, plus the provincial Ontario tax.

Just as the Leafs are looking at more cap space over the next two years ...

$70,890,000 was the signing bonuses under Tavares contract

Original story from February
Leafs captain John Tavares fighting Canada?s tax agency over $8M it claims he owes
The $8 mil tax bill is only for 2018. The other six years will take his tax tab to tens of millions more in taxes if CRA prevails.

Connor McDavid's contract has $86 mil in signing bonus. Matthews, Nylander & Marner also have large signing bonuses.

If CRA prevails, it could chill top professional athletes coming to Canada or remaining in Canada in a big way. It will probably take a while to resolve so in the short term, it could make things tough for the Leafs and all CDN major pro sports teams for signing UFAs or talent.

Marner might save himself tens of millions in taxes if he plays out his contract and even more if he goes along with a trade now.

How Much Do NHL Players Really Make? Part 2: Taxes

 

[Bender]

Wait... the CRA is arguing that they're called signing bonuses but they actually aren't signing bonuses?

 

[cabber24]

Wait... the CRA is arguing that they're called signing bonuses but they actually aren't signing bonuses?

It's salary paid up front, not a bonus. I don't get the argument. $77M over 7 years with a cap hit of $11M per year regardless of when he gets the money is still all taxable salary. If the NHL allowed bonuses outside the SALARY cap he would have a case.

 

[Bender]

Wait... the CRA is arguing that they're called signing bonuses but they actually aren't signing bonuses?

It's salary paid up front, not a bonus. I don't get the argument. $77M over 7 years with a cap hit of $11M per year regardless of when he gets the money is still all taxable salary. If the NHL allowed bonuses outside the SALARY cap he would have a case.

So it basically is a misnomer. I think this a pretty open and shut case considering he would only get the bonuses pro-rata if he "breached the Contract, voluntarily retired, withheld his services (including a refusal to report, practice, or play), or left the Toronto Maple Leafs." I would imagine a true signing bonus would be cash you get in its entirety should you choose to sign, regardless of future consequences.

 

[cabber24]

Wait... the CRA is arguing that they're called signing bonuses but they actually aren't signing bonuses?

It's salary paid up front, not a bonus. I don't get the argument. $77M over 7 years with a cap hit of $11M per year regardless of when he gets the money is still all taxable salary. If the NHL allowed bonuses outside the SALARY cap he would have a case.

So it basically is a misnomer. I think this a pretty open and shut case considering he would only get the bonuses pro-rata if he "breached the Contract, voluntarily retired, withheld his services (including a refusal to report, practice, or play), or left the Toronto Maple Leafs." I would imagine a true signing bonus would be cash you get in its entirety should you choose to sign, regardless of future consequences.

The advantage to the NHL athlete is the time value of the money getting it upfront.

 

[herman]

https://x.com/tlndc/status/1795803429128008027
Jiri Tlusty energy in this headline