2024 Offseason Thread: Changes

[herman]

It'll be interesting to see how it pans out. I keep flip-flopping on Marner vs. 2 $6M players.

I generally lean more toward the Keefe way of things: a half-ass dogging Nylander/Matthews probably still gives you a better chance of scoring than a fired up Domi. I think the point that does have merit is this could be frustrating for the middle players who are busting their ass.

The $6M collection I'm aiming for are players like Verhaeghe. They just need enough talent to shoot the puck fast, and the wherewithal (be it through strength, or guile & gumption) to pucks back off board battles.

There are mid-tier players all over the league that just need the right fit in playstyle and an opportunity to build confidence. Prospects on the cusp but walled by NHL roster depth is another bet I'd like the Leafs to make trades for.

I felt like Keefe shot himself in the foot in terms of the long game impact because he was aiming to win every single game from October and on, but also having a harder system to acclimate to and really giving no leash or incentive to the bottom group to rise above their station unless injuries changed the plan. He had a few moments of stress-testing certain players, but that was really only this past season.

The long game benefits to trimming the sails on the stars when warranted and elevating the role players every so often is a) the depth players feel good and motivated to stay ready to move up, b) the stars feel a bit of the spurs and dig in a bit more, b) coaching staff gets a bigger sample of chemistry options. The short game downside is maybe you lose a November away game to Anaheim or the sens. Which we were doing anyway with Keefe's method, by the way, when the stars dogged it.

 

[herman]

I mean the problem with not going with the Core 4 was that our depth generally doesn't score.  If you are trailing, what does putting out David Kampf do. 

I think the bigger issue was a lack of lineup flexibility.  If Robertson is having a good game, give him time with Marner/Matthews instead of just stagnating him on the same line.  If the 1st PP unit has been playing like garbage for the last 15 games of the year, mix it up instead of just doing the same thing over and over again.  Keefe was great at putting Marner on Matthews line when the game wasn't going well and I don't think he did a good job of doing other adjustments.

Yeah, that is echoing my read on it. Keefe did put David Kampf and Alex Kerfoot out to give the core 4 rest shifts!

The Core 4 not scoring against certain setups came down a lot to something similar to their playoff struggles against set and committed defenses: the QB only wanted to throw to one guy and everyone knew it and was given the time to act accordingly.

 

[herman]

I wouldn't go all out on UFA (ever), and would prefer the Leafs keep their powder dry -- i.e. leave cap room open to accrue for a deadline play when bad teams with good players are ready to deal, and really give the top-6F or top-4D a difference maker then. Play the kids in the first half and see who has staying power.

If the Leafs' weren't in what should be their Cup run window, I'd agree, but, with where they are, they can't afford to sit on their hands and wait for the deadline - especially considering that's often when prices for players are at their silliest and cost more future assets the team cannot afford to expend. Better to have the significant pieces on the roster for the longer haul than plugging them in at the deadline. Cap space replenishes every season. Prospects and picks traded away do not. We're already experiencing the repercussions of that approach from the team's previous GM.

Definitely would be better to have significant pieces acclimated earlier; I don't know if it makes sense to buy more than 1 significant piece.

There's a window just before the deadline where teams have been able to generate conversations and transactions around players with term. July 1 is almost purely a buying day, and I don't think the Leafs' needs and the market this season really align enough (maybe 1 D-man). I haven't done the research, but I think draft picks and prospects have the most buying power at the Draft or at the deadline.

 

[CarltonTheBear]

There's a window just before the deadline where teams have been able to generate conversations and transactions around players with term. July 1 is almost purely a buying day, and I don't think the Leafs' needs and the market this season really align enough (maybe 1 D-man). I haven't done the research, but I think draft picks and prospects have the most buying power at the Draft or at the deadline.

We're not exactly flush with prospects or draft picks (especially picks) right now though. I mean we literally don't have a pick through the first 4 rounds next year. So deadline shopping will be tough.

 

[herman]

There's a window just before the deadline where teams have been able to generate conversations and transactions around players with term. July 1 is almost purely a buying day, and I don't think the Leafs' needs and the market this season really align enough (maybe 1 D-man). I haven't done the research, but I think draft picks and prospects have the most buying power at the Draft or at the deadline.

We're not exactly flush with prospects or draft picks (especially picks) right now though. I mean we literally don't have a pick through the first 4 rounds next year. So deadline shopping will be tough.

Yes, we are not loaded there, but in a trade scenario, the picks and prospects are usually filler. We have to look for a good hockey trade. I'm looking at the Mattias Ekholm deal that is saving Ken Holland's job.

 

[CarltonTheBear]

Yes, we are not loaded there, but in a trade scenario, the picks and prospects are usually filler. We have to look for a good hockey trade. I'm looking at the Mattias Ekholm deal that is saving Ken Holland's job.

Well for starters yes that trade simply baffled me from Nashville's perspective and always will. But it still involved Edmonton giving up their 1st rounder.

There's actually a ton of good UFA defenceman this year and the Leafs probably need at least 2 new ones (maybe 3 if Lily gets dealt), and I don't think they can afford to wait until the deadline to fill those holes.

I'd be a little more comfortable waiting to plug the forward holes though and possibly giving guys like Cowan and Minten or even bigger dark horses like Grebyonkin/Tverberg/Hirvone shots early on. Generally speaking I think forwards can tend to come at more of a bargain at/around the deadline. But the defence needs to get addressed early.

 

[cw]

I wouldn't go all out on UFA (ever), and would prefer the Leafs keep their powder dry -- i.e. leave cap room open to accrue for a deadline play when bad teams with good players are ready to deal, and really give the top-6F or top-4D a difference maker then. Play the kids in the first half and see who has staying power.

If the Leafs' weren't in what should be their Cup run window, I'd agree, but, with where they are, they can't afford to sit on their hands and wait for the deadline - especially considering that's often when prices for players are at their silliest and cost more future assets the team cannot afford to expend. Better to have the significant pieces on the roster for the longer haul than plugging them in at the deadline. Cap space replenishes every season. Prospects and picks traded away do not. We're already experiencing the repercussions of that approach from the team's previous GM.

Then there is a little team rebuild after the deadline to incorporate the new faces - which didn't gel that well this year - until maybe the last 3-4 games of the playoffs. (In fact, I'm not sure they have ever gelled that well)
After the deadline this year, the PK never improved and the PP went in the toilet.
And then the rentals are gone at the end of the season along with the picks/prospects. Back to square one.

It might be nice to have a real top 4 D play with the core 3/4 for a couple of full seasons while they take their shots with Matthews. It is too late to draft and develop them in Matthews window.
And then they can use some picks (maybe prospects) to trade for an economical younger player in the summer/fall who is going to be around for a couple of seasons and help them stay under the cap. They'll probably have to overpay some young assets to get them but the young acquisition will be able to help Matthews window and they'll be around longer than one playoff run.

I think they've beaten the deadline rental thing to death and have so little to show for it.

 

[herman]

Yes, we are not loaded there, but in a trade scenario, the picks and prospects are usually filler. We have to look for a good hockey trade. I'm looking at the Mattias Ekholm deal that is saving Ken Holland's job.

Well for starters yes that trade simply baffled me from Nashville's perspective and always will. But it still involved Edmonton giving up their 1st rounder.

There's actually a ton of good UFA defenceman this year and the Leafs probably need at least 2 new ones (maybe 3 if Lily gets dealt), and I don't think they can afford to wait until the deadline to fill those holes.

I'd be a little more comfortable waiting to plug the forward holes though and possibly giving guys like Cowan and Minten or even bigger dark horses like Grebyonkin/Tverberg/Hirvonen shots early on. Generally speaking I think forwards can tend to come at more of a bargain at/around the deadline. But the defence needs to get addressed early.

I can roll with that, barring some sort of trade shakeup to the forwards.

 

[L K]

The defense absolutely needs to come from free agency (barring some kind of Marner for defense move).  We don't have draft capital to make an Ekholm style trade.

Over the next three drafts we have 2 first round picks, zero second round picks, 1 3rd Round pick and 1 4th round pick. 

I'm fine with giving rope to Cowan/Minten next year (Cowan has really been impressive in the postseason/Memorial Cup run so far for London).  His size might be an issue over an 82 game season right now but I think he makes good decisions with the puck and even when he is aggressive you always see him making good transitions back into the defensive zone.  The NHL speed and size is a completely different beast but I'm sold on him being a contributor albeit with growing pains.  But I really don't see the Leafs doing a great job of filling holes through the trade deadline when we have a sparse cupboard that doesn't really improve with high end depth over the next three years.

 

[ZBBM]

https://www.pensionplanpuppets.com/defence-first-defining-leafs-needs/
This is going to be an interesting series of articles, I think.

What she said about Liljegren rings true, sadly.

 

[lamajama]

Wait... the CRA is arguing that they're called signing bonuses but they actually aren't signing bonuses?

It's salary paid up front, not a bonus. I don't get the argument. $77M over 7 years with a cap hit of $11M per year regardless of when he gets the money is still all taxable salary. If the NHL allowed bonuses outside the SALARY cap he would have a case.

So it basically is a misnomer. I think this a pretty open and shut case considering he would only get the bonuses pro-rata if he "breached the Contract, voluntarily retired, withheld his services (including a refusal to report, practice, or play), or left the Toronto Maple Leafs." I would imagine a true signing bonus would be cash you get in its entirety should you choose to sign, regardless of future consequences.

The only thing that makes them a little different is the signing bonuses have clauses where they still get given out in the event of a lockout whereas a regular salary isn't.  So there is definitely grey area here.

Agreed that there's some grey area and there's room for argument each way.
However, a signing bonus needs to be a "bonus" I would think. I'm starting a new job in a month and am getting a true signing bonus. In my case, the bonus is irrespective of my salary. My salary is clearly separate.

In JT's case, it's easily arguable that his appropriate salary is far greater than the reported salary. So it's clearly just paying him in advance.

On the other hand, how is a bonus defined? I'm sure it's clear in the excise tax act, but I'm too lazy to look it up. Part of the bonus might not be the value, but the timing.

I'm confident the CRA will prevail, but maybe they cut a deal recognizing it's potentially grey and that JT is entitled to a sizable signing bonus. It'll likely come down to an argument of how much of his total remuneration is salary vs bonus. No way CRA will accept 75% bonus / 25% salary. This case will be precedent setting.

This could be devastating for Canadian teams?.hopefully the political parties know that hockey fans will slice and dice them if they don?t ?fix? this?.

 

[herman]

https://x.com/APetrielli/status/1796531094252048654
EVERYONE'S FAVOURITE TOPIC

 

[herman]

https://x.com/PPPLeafs/status/1795077700022865955
https://x.com/PPPLeafs/status/1796527979587137675

Bert and Ernie Domi: keep or toss?

I think the Front Office is leaning towards the Carlton suggestion:
UFA D rebuild, cheapo/internal growth Fs, probably medium UFA G.

Marner gets hardballed with a number the Leafs are good with (a generous 11.5x8 max), and if he doesn't like that he can make one last list for the Leafs.

 

[herman]

32 Thoughts June 3, 2024
Transcription errors are my own. I tried to trim out the waffling and filler as best I could.

Timestamp: 1:06

EF: Everybody is trying to be really careful here, but one of the things people have told me is not to be surprised if this plays out over next season, Marner and Toronto. Now there's a lot of time between here and then, and things can always change, but this is such a delicate conversation between player and team because everyone is determined to look like a winner here.

The Leafs are determined to either make a good trade, or, with the cap room that's created by that trade, do something big that they know they can't afford to have a swing and miss with this one. And also, the player is determined -- and more importantly the people around the player -- are determined to do this that make themselves look good, and they're not going to agree to anything that they think puts them in a bad light. So this is a really complicated thing going in.

I want to throw a couple other points out there to you:
#1 I think that there is some real concern about how the Toronto fans will react to Marner if he starts the year unsigned. And you can't avoid that. And I'm the kind of person who's like, if you want to bet on yourself, bet on yourself. I've bet on myself before, other people have bet on themselves before, if that's what Marner wants to do, I think he has all the right in the world to do it. But he has to understand that some of the fanbase is not going to react very well that, and you have to play through that. Are you comfortable with that? Can you play through that? I do believe that's one of the things that's been discussed.

I think with the Maple Leafs, the other issue that they are dealing with here, and I think there are people in the organization that feel very strongly about this, is that they traded Nazem Kadri a couple of years ago when they were mad at him. Kadri got suspended twice in a row, there are people who felt very strongly at the time that they had to make that trade, but Nazem Kadri went somewhere else, sorted himself out, was a critical member of a Stanley Cup champion, and is a player Toronto very much missed after he left.

And I think there are people in the organization who are looking at this and believe, could this be Kadri 2.0? where Marner goes somewhere else, the spotlight is less intense, he learns how to balance everything, he goes out and becomes a key player on a Stanley Cup champion in another city. Which I do believe could happen. To me that is a very legitimate thing, that Marner could go somewhere quieter and really thrive. I think he's a great player and can become an even better player without the spotlight. I do think there are people in the organization who are very scared of the possibility of that happening, and that's part of the background to all this.

If the contract demands on both sides are crazy, it's going to lead to an eventual divorce anyway. But I don't think there's a certain w- I know there's people who are 100% certain he's getting traded... On Sunday June 2nd, I don't know that I'm so certain of that. I think one of the biggest challenges here are going to be sort of like the feelings of everybody involved. I just think this is going to take a lot of diplomacy for a lot of people to do properly.

 

[Bill_Berg]

32 Thoughts June 3, 2024
Transcription errors are my own. I tried to trim out the waffling and filler as best I could.

Timestamp: 1:06

I think with the Maple Leafs, the other issue that they are dealing with here, and I think there are people in the organization that feel very strongly about this, is that they traded Nazem Kadri a couple of years ago when they were mad at him. Kadri got suspended twice in a row, there are people who felt very strongly at the time that they had to make that trade, but Nazem Kadri went somewhere else, sorted himself out, was a critical member of a Stanley Cup champion, and is a player Toronto very much missed after he left.

And I think there are people in the organization who are looking at this and believe, could this be Kadri 2.0? where Marner goes somewhere else, the spotlight is less intense, he learns how to balance everything, he goes out and becomes a key player on a Stanley Cup champion in another city. Which I do believe could happen. To me that is a very legitimate thing, that Marner could go somewhere quieter and really thrive. I think he's a great player and can become an even better player without the spotlight. I do think there are people in the organization who are very scared of the possibility of that happening, and that's part of the background to all this.

Personally, I don't really care how it shakes out for player after he leaves Toronto. Win here, then it won't mater if Marner wins three cups with someone else.

 

[herman]

Personally, I don't really care how it shakes out for player after he leaves Toronto. Win here, then it won't mater if Marner wins three cups with someone else.

If the Leafs front office people are so worried about their cast-offs winning the Cup, that's a loser's mentality. Fretting over the fantasy of someone else winning means you don't think you are winning anything.

Relish beating those guys who were shafting you (and your end of season bonus for 8 straight years) with their lackadaisical antics.

 

[princedpw]

32 Thoughts June 3, 2024
Transcription errors are my own. I tried to trim out the waffling and filler as best I could.

Timestamp: 1:06

EF: Everybody is trying to be really careful here, but one of the things people have told me is not to be surprised if this plays out over next season, Marner and Toronto. Now there's a lot of time between here and then, and things can always change, but this is such a delicate conversation between player and team because everyone is determined to look like a winner here.

The Leafs are determined to either make a good trade, or, with the cap room that's created by that trade, do something big that they know they can't afford to have a swing and miss with this one. And also, the player is determined -- and more importantly the people around the player -- are determined to do this that make themselves look good, and they're not going to agree to anything that they think puts them in a bad light. So this is a really complicated thing going in.

I want to throw a couple other points out there to you:
#1 I think that there is some real concern about how the Toronto fans will react to Marner if he starts the year unsigned. And you can't avoid that. And I'm the kind of person who's like, if you want to bet on yourself, bet on yourself. I've bet on myself before, other people have bet on themselves before, if that's what Marner wants to do, I think he has all the right in the world to do it. But he has to understand that some of the fanbase is not going to react very well that, and you have to play through that. Are you comfortable with that? Can you play through that? I do believe that's one of the things that's been discussed.

I think with the Maple Leafs, the other issue that they are dealing with here, and I think there are people in the organization that feel very strongly about this, is that they traded Nazem Kadri a couple of years ago when they were mad at him. Kadri got suspended twice in a row, there are people who felt very strongly at the time that they had to make that trade, but Nazem Kadri went somewhere else, sorted himself out, was a critical member of a Stanley Cup champion, and is a player Toronto very much missed after he left.

And I think there are people in the organization who are looking at this and believe, could this be Kadri 2.0? where Marner goes somewhere else, the spotlight is less intense, he learns how to balance everything, he goes out and becomes a key player on a Stanley Cup champion in another city. Which I do believe could happen. To me that is a very legitimate thing, that Marner could go somewhere quieter and really thrive. I think he's a great player and can become an even better player without the spotlight. I do think there are people in the organization who are very scared of the possibility of that happening, and that's part of the background to all this.

If the contract demands on both sides are crazy, it's going to lead to an eventual divorce anyway. But I don't think there's a certain w- I know there's people who are 100% certain he's getting traded... On Sunday June 2nd, I don't know that I'm so certain of that. I think one of the biggest challenges here are going to be sort of like the feelings of everybody involved. I just think this is going to take a lot of diplomacy for a lot of people to do properly.

I hate almost everything in this comment.  The organization won't succeed if they're worried about what other people are thinking.  Fans are stupid and short-sighted.  Don't let them dictate your moves.

The only useful objective is to "make a good trade" and if you can't then continue to use your assets in such a way that maximizes team success.

 

[Guilt Trip]

If the Leafs front office people are so worried about their cast-offs winning the Cup, that's a loser's mentality. Fretting over the fantasy of someone else winning means you don't think you are winning anything.

That's just EF's guess. I highly doubt management feels this way. They want to make a great trade...that's it.

 

[Bender]

32 Thoughts June 3, 2024
Transcription errors are my own. I tried to trim out the waffling and filler as best I could.

Timestamp: 1:06

EF: Everybody is trying to be really careful here, but one of the things people have told me is not to be surprised if this plays out over next season, Marner and Toronto. Now there's a lot of time between here and then, and things can always change, but this is such a delicate conversation between player and team because everyone is determined to look like a winner here.

The Leafs are determined to either make a good trade, or, with the cap room that's created by that trade, do something big that they know they can't afford to have a swing and miss with this one. And also, the player is determined -- and more importantly the people around the player -- are determined to do this that make themselves look good, and they're not going to agree to anything that they think puts them in a bad light. So this is a really complicated thing going in.

I want to throw a couple other points out there to you:
#1 I think that there is some real concern about how the Toronto fans will react to Marner if he starts the year unsigned. And you can't avoid that. And I'm the kind of person who's like, if you want to bet on yourself, bet on yourself. I've bet on myself before, other people have bet on themselves before, if that's what Marner wants to do, I think he has all the right in the world to do it. But he has to understand that some of the fanbase is not going to react very well that, and you have to play through that. Are you comfortable with that? Can you play through that? I do believe that's one of the things that's been discussed.

I think with the Maple Leafs, the other issue that they are dealing with here, and I think there are people in the organization that feel very strongly about this, is that they traded Nazem Kadri a couple of years ago when they were mad at him. Kadri got suspended twice in a row, there are people who felt very strongly at the time that they had to make that trade, but Nazem Kadri went somewhere else, sorted himself out, was a critical member of a Stanley Cup champion, and is a player Toronto very much missed after he left.

And I think there are people in the organization who are looking at this and believe, could this be Kadri 2.0? where Marner goes somewhere else, the spotlight is less intense, he learns how to balance everything, he goes out and becomes a key player on a Stanley Cup champion in another city. Which I do believe could happen. To me that is a very legitimate thing, that Marner could go somewhere quieter and really thrive. I think he's a great player and can become an even better player without the spotlight. I do think there are people in the organization who are very scared of the possibility of that happening, and that's part of the background to all this.

If the contract demands on both sides are crazy, it's going to lead to an eventual divorce anyway. But I don't think there's a certain w- I know there's people who are 100% certain he's getting traded... On Sunday June 2nd, I don't know that I'm so certain of that. I think one of the biggest challenges here are going to be sort of like the feelings of everybody involved. I just think this is going to take a lot of diplomacy for a lot of people to do properly.

I hate almost everything in this comment.  The organization won't succeed if they're worried about what other people are thinking.  Fans are stupid and short-sighted.  Don't let them dictate your moves.

The only useful objective is to "make a good trade" and if you can't then continue to use your assets in such a way that maximizes team success.

Seems like all pretty reasonable comments to me. It doesn't say anywhere that the team will do anything dictated by what they think the fanbase thinks (as if we all think the same anyway).

 

[princedpw]

32 Thoughts June 3, 2024
Transcription errors are my own. I tried to trim out the waffling and filler as best I could.

Timestamp: 1:06

EF: Everybody is trying to be really careful here, but one of the things people have told me is not to be surprised if this plays out over next season, Marner and Toronto. Now there's a lot of time between here and then, and things can always change, but this is such a delicate conversation between player and team because everyone is determined to look like a winner here.

The Leafs are determined to either make a good trade, or, with the cap room that's created by that trade, do something big that they know they can't afford to have a swing and miss with this one. And also, the player is determined -- and more importantly the people around the player -- are determined to do this that make themselves look good, and they're not going to agree to anything that they think puts them in a bad light. So this is a really complicated thing going in.

I want to throw a couple other points out there to you:
#1 I think that there is some real concern about how the Toronto fans will react to Marner if he starts the year unsigned. And you can't avoid that. And I'm the kind of person who's like, if you want to bet on yourself, bet on yourself. I've bet on myself before, other people have bet on themselves before, if that's what Marner wants to do, I think he has all the right in the world to do it. But he has to understand that some of the fanbase is not going to react very well that, and you have to play through that. Are you comfortable with that? Can you play through that? I do believe that's one of the things that's been discussed.

I think with the Maple Leafs, the other issue that they are dealing with here, and I think there are people in the organization that feel very strongly about this, is that they traded Nazem Kadri a couple of years ago when they were mad at him. Kadri got suspended twice in a row, there are people who felt very strongly at the time that they had to make that trade, but Nazem Kadri went somewhere else, sorted himself out, was a critical member of a Stanley Cup champion, and is a player Toronto very much missed after he left.

And I think there are people in the organization who are looking at this and believe, could this be Kadri 2.0? where Marner goes somewhere else, the spotlight is less intense, he learns how to balance everything, he goes out and becomes a key player on a Stanley Cup champion in another city. Which I do believe could happen. To me that is a very legitimate thing, that Marner could go somewhere quieter and really thrive. I think he's a great player and can become an even better player without the spotlight. I do think there are people in the organization who are very scared of the possibility of that happening, and that's part of the background to all this.

If the contract demands on both sides are crazy, it's going to lead to an eventual divorce anyway. But I don't think there's a certain w- I know there's people who are 100% certain he's getting traded... On Sunday June 2nd, I don't know that I'm so certain of that. I think one of the biggest challenges here are going to be sort of like the feelings of everybody involved. I just think this is going to take a lot of diplomacy for a lot of people to do properly.

I hate almost everything in this comment.  The organization won't succeed if they're worried about what other people are thinking.  Fans are stupid and short-sighted.  Don't let them dictate your moves.

The only useful objective is to "make a good trade" and if you can't then continue to use your assets in such a way that maximizes team success.

Seems like all pretty reasonable comments to me. It doesn't say anywhere that the team will do anything dictated by what they think the fanbase thinks (as if we all think the same anyway).

I am referring to remarks like the #1 point: ? #1 I think that there is some real concern about how the Toronto fans will react to Marner . . .?

Building a winning team is tough enough - I?m hoping short term fan reactions aren?t a major factor.