2024 Offseason Thread: Changes

[herman]

https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/5541393/2024/06/04/nhl-rumblings-zegras-marner-saros

Mitch Marner?s future has been the most-talked-about subject in the Toronto market. He?s got a year left on his deal and a full no-move clause. Treliving and Marner?s agent, Darren Ferris, as one would expect, met Tuesday.

?The thing I would say is, be very, very careful of what you read out there,? Treliving said when asked about Marner speculation. ?Mitch is a hell of a player. He?s going into the last year of his contract. We?re not going to comment on any players. Any business that we conduct, we?ll do that between Darren Ferris and us. We?re not going to do play-by-play on it. We?ve got to look at every possible way for our team to be better.

?Mitch controls a lot of this whole thing (with the no-[movement]). If there?s a way to make our team better, we?re going to do it. But we?re certainly not going to make a trade just so we can pound our chest and say, ?Look, we?re different.'?

But as Treliving reiterated, they will explore any meaningful way to make the team better. That?s his job as GM.

Look at this vote of confidence

 

[Bender]

https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/5541393/2024/06/04/nhl-rumblings-zegras-marner-saros

Mitch Marner?s future has been the most-talked-about subject in the Toronto market. He?s got a year left on his deal and a full no-move clause. Treliving and Marner?s agent, Darren Ferris, as one would expect, met Tuesday.

?The thing I would say is, be very, very careful of what you read out there,? Treliving said when asked about Marner speculation. ?Mitch is a hell of a player. He?s going into the last year of his contract. We?re not going to comment on any players. Any business that we conduct, we?ll do that between Darren Ferris and us. We?re not going to do play-by-play on it. We?ve got to look at every possible way for our team to be better.

?Mitch controls a lot of this whole thing (with the no-[movement]). If there?s a way to make our team better, we?re going to do it. But we?re certainly not going to make a trade just so we can pound our chest and say, ?Look, we?re different.'?

But as Treliving reiterated, they will explore any meaningful way to make the team better. That?s his job as GM.

Look at this vote of confidence

Oh wait, he said the wrong thing. Marner's walking.

 

[Bullfrog]

https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/5541393/2024/06/04/nhl-rumblings-zegras-marner-saros

Mitch Marner?s future has been the most-talked-about subject in the Toronto market. He?s got a year left on his deal and a full no-move clause. Treliving and Marner?s agent, Darren Ferris, as one would expect, met Tuesday.

?The thing I would say is, be very, very careful of what you read out there,? Treliving said when asked about Marner speculation. ?Mitch is a hell of a player. He?s going into the last year of his contract. We?re not going to comment on any players. Any business that we conduct, we?ll do that between Darren Ferris and us. We?re not going to do play-by-play on it. We?ve got to look at every possible way for our team to be better.

?Mitch controls a lot of this whole thing (with the no-[movement]). If there?s a way to make our team better, we?re going to do it. But we?re certainly not going to make a trade just so we can pound our chest and say, ?Look, we?re different.'?

But as Treliving reiterated, they will explore any meaningful way to make the team better. That?s his job as GM.

Look at this vote of confidence

100% gone.

 

[herman]

Just to contrast a similar situation (but different context of course)

https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/4845197/2023/09/08/maple-leafs-matthews-nylander-treliving/

Up next, Treliving hopes, is William Nylander, who is entering the final year of his contract before potentially becoming an unrestricted free agent. Treliving tried to install urgency in those talks back in June, stressing the importance of getting a quick resolution, but so far, that extension has proved elusive.

?Willy is a really important player and a really good player, and we want to get him done, too,? the Leafs GM said. ?That?s next on the list.?

So where is that negotiation now?

?I?m not going to get into the play-by-play of it other than to say he?s a very good player and you always want to keep the good players,? Treliving said. ?And he?s told me he wants to be in Toronto. That?s the most important thing. If there?s a desire on both sides, then you should be able to come to an agreement.

?But these things take time. They?re all their own independent deals, and they have their own ebbs and flows.?

The front office did check the market on Nylander?s value around the league but didn?t like the return offers and weren?t willing to lose the deal.

 

[cw]

Just to contrast a similar situation (but different context of course)

https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/4845197/2023/09/08/maple-leafs-matthews-nylander-treliving/

Up next, Treliving hopes, is William Nylander, who is entering the final year of his contract before potentially becoming an unrestricted free agent. Treliving tried to install urgency in those talks back in June, stressing the importance of getting a quick resolution, but so far, that extension has proved elusive.

?Willy is a really important player and a really good player, and we want to get him done, too,? the Leafs GM said. ?That?s next on the list.?

So where is that negotiation now?

?I?m not going to get into the play-by-play of it other than to say he?s a very good player and you always want to keep the good players,? Treliving said. ?And he?s told me he wants to be in Toronto. That?s the most important thing. If there?s a desire on both sides, then you should be able to come to an agreement.

?But these things take time. They?re all their own independent deals, and they have their own ebbs and flows.?

The front office did check the market on Nylander?s value around the league but didn?t like the return offers and weren?t willing to lose the deal.

There was a pretty significant difference: "Player submits a 10 team no trade list."
They didn't need Nylander's permission to talk with or trade him to 21 other teams.
They didn't like the return after 21 teams looked him over.

The best case with Marner would be getting his agreement to speak with what would likely be a considerably smaller number of teams (if any) after he's already declared that he wants to remain in Toronto. So the team that potentially trades for him would know that and would do so knowing they're not his first choice and that he's half being run out of Toronto by fans and media. So they're going to pay a King's ransom for him? I don't think that is very likely. The very fact that the Leafs would entertain dealing him devalues him as it probably did Nylander.

 

[Bender]

Just to contrast a similar situation (but different context of course)

https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/4845197/2023/09/08/maple-leafs-matthews-nylander-treliving/

Up next, Treliving hopes, is William Nylander, who is entering the final year of his contract before potentially becoming an unrestricted free agent. Treliving tried to install urgency in those talks back in June, stressing the importance of getting a quick resolution, but so far, that extension has proved elusive.

?Willy is a really important player and a really good player, and we want to get him done, too,? the Leafs GM said. ?That?s next on the list.?

So where is that negotiation now?

?I?m not going to get into the play-by-play of it other than to say he?s a very good player and you always want to keep the good players,? Treliving said. ?And he?s told me he wants to be in Toronto. That?s the most important thing. If there?s a desire on both sides, then you should be able to come to an agreement.

?But these things take time. They?re all their own independent deals, and they have their own ebbs and flows.?

The front office did check the market on Nylander?s value around the league but didn?t like the return offers and weren?t willing to lose the deal.

There was a pretty significant difference: "Player submits a 10 team no trade list."
They didn't need Nylander's permission to talk with or trade him to 21 other teams.
They didn't like the return after 21 teams looked him over.

The best case with Marner would be getting his agreement to speak with what would likely be a considerably smaller number of teams (if any) after he's already declared that he wants to remain in Toronto. So the team that potentially trades for him would know that and would do so knowing they're not his first choice and that he's half being run out of Toronto by fans and media. So they're going to pay a King's ransom for him? I don't think that is very likely. The very fact that the Leafs would entertain dealing him devalues him as it probably did Nylander.

I disagree with the tenets there. I do think they need to tread carefully but there is such a thing as persuasion. People can be lured and it happens all the time. How does that devalue him? What devalues him is inability to pit many teams against each other in a bidding war.

 

[cw]

Just to contrast a similar situation (but different context of course)

https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/4845197/2023/09/08/maple-leafs-matthews-nylander-treliving/

Up next, Treliving hopes, is William Nylander, who is entering the final year of his contract before potentially becoming an unrestricted free agent. Treliving tried to install urgency in those talks back in June, stressing the importance of getting a quick resolution, but so far, that extension has proved elusive.

?Willy is a really important player and a really good player, and we want to get him done, too,? the Leafs GM said. ?That?s next on the list.?

So where is that negotiation now?

?I?m not going to get into the play-by-play of it other than to say he?s a very good player and you always want to keep the good players,? Treliving said. ?And he?s told me he wants to be in Toronto. That?s the most important thing. If there?s a desire on both sides, then you should be able to come to an agreement.

?But these things take time. They?re all their own independent deals, and they have their own ebbs and flows.?

The front office did check the market on Nylander?s value around the league but didn?t like the return offers and weren?t willing to lose the deal.

There was a pretty significant difference: "Player submits a 10 team no trade list."
They didn't need Nylander's permission to talk with or trade him to 21 other teams.
They didn't like the return after 21 teams looked him over.

The best case with Marner would be getting his agreement to speak with what would likely be a considerably smaller number of teams (if any) after he's already declared that he wants to remain in Toronto. So the team that potentially trades for him would know that and would do so knowing they're not his first choice and that he's half being run out of Toronto by fans and media. So they're going to pay a King's ransom for him? I don't think that is very likely. The very fact that the Leafs would entertain dealing him devalues him as it probably did Nylander.

I disagree with the tenets there. I do think they need to tread carefully but there is such a thing as persuasion. People can be lured and it happens all the time. How does that devalue him? What devalues him is inability to pit many teams against each other in a bidding war.

"How does that devalue him?"

"We're trying to win a Cup and we don't need Mitch Marner to get us to the promised land. What will you give us for him?"

Why not trade Matthews? He's taking up more cap space and has a lower ppg in the playoffs.
How about McDavid?
Those guys are not in the conversation because their teams feel they're core to their aspirations.

When a player becomes tradeable, under these circumstances, their value drops. The team that has had him for 8 years doesn't think he's critical to their Cup aspirations anymore. How can it be taken any other way?

Yes, fewer teams bidding also helps to keep the talent return in a trade lower.
But the above has an impact on his trade value as well.

"Persuasion"? In this circumstance, where Marner is on record as wanting to remain in Toronto and his agent has stated that he's firmly set on starting the season in Toronto? And his agent wants him to test free agency? He already has a big, fat line in the sand. He is so dead set, he's not entertaining extension or trade before the start of the season. Treliving will be trying to persuade someone who doesn't want to talk about it. Good luck with that.

Marner and his agent know that if he starts the season with the Leafs, it is really tough to move his big cap hit and tough to get thru the deadline doing that with any hopes of doing much in the playoffs. So they're setting the table for the Leafs to decide next summer "Do you want to lose Marner for nothing?"

 

[herman]

https://twitter.com/sportsnet/status/1784399250153222225

Guess who was mic?d up for this
https://x.com/lukefoxjukebox/status/1798687503437742297

 

[herman]

https://x.com/theoakleafs/status/1798517370740453702
This is cherry picking stats, but it is also illustrative of our collective memories. Goals and do-or-die games stick better in the mind. Even if Marner?s assists were all high value primaries to a superstar shooting talent, that?d be 5 out of 17 goals. Tavares missed a whole series, and Matthews missed 5-6 of the latest.

I will also say they?ve all not produced enough in these situations, relative to their cap hits (except for Nylander who was 7M).

 

[herman]

Just to contrast a similar situation (but different context of course)

https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/4845197/2023/09/08/maple-leafs-matthews-nylander-treliving/

Up next, Treliving hopes, is William Nylander, who is entering the final year of his contract before potentially becoming an unrestricted free agent. Treliving tried to install urgency in those talks back in June, stressing the importance of getting a quick resolution, but so far, that extension has proved elusive.

?Willy is a really important player and a really good player, and we want to get him done, too,? the Leafs GM said. ?That?s next on the list.?

So where is that negotiation now?

?I?m not going to get into the play-by-play of it other than to say he?s a very good player and you always want to keep the good players,? Treliving said. ?And he?s told me he wants to be in Toronto. That?s the most important thing. If there?s a desire on both sides, then you should be able to come to an agreement.

?But these things take time. They?re all their own independent deals, and they have their own ebbs and flows.?

The front office did check the market on Nylander?s value around the league but didn?t like the return offers and weren?t willing to lose the deal.

https://twitter.com/lukefoxjukebox/status/1798665186792136818

Let's flash back to June 2023, when Treliving took his post as general manager of this talent-rich, results-poor outfit.

Cornerstones Auston Matthews and William Nylander were on the verge of extension eligibility, the way Marner is now.

The bullish tone surrounding those star forwards' futures was markedly different than the tempo around No. 16.

Treliving made no bones that summer "priority No. 1" was locking up Matthews. Similar assurances were made about Nylander. Even as the trickier negotiation stretched deep into the regular season, management may have wavered from its price but never its public messaging: We want to re-sign the player. The player wants to re-sign with us. We'll keep chipping away until pen meets paper.

Marner's ultimate-hammer control in his contract year is the same as Matthews' (full no-movement clause). And (so far) his willingness to bet on himself and skate into training camp ? and beyond ? without an extension in place aligns with Nylander's approach.

What is strikingly different, and where things could get interesting, is the club's position.

 

[herman]

Anyway, great job Shanahan, for creating this entirely predictable situation It might slightly sewer the Leafs this season, but it will more than make up for it in Bell/Rogers media clicks.

 

[Bullfrog]

But why only stats for games 5, 6, & 7. You don't get to those games except for winning in the first four. What about Marner's contributions in getting the team to the playoffs?

 

[herman]

But why only stats for games 5, 6, & 7. You don't get to those games except for winning in the first four. What about Marner's contributions in getting the team to the playoffs?

That's why I said it was cherry picking stats.

We should also make note that he's a completely different player in the regular season. Not all points are equal in terms of game-leverage.

 

[herman]

https://www.pensionplanpuppets.com/carolina-hockey-defender-shopping/
I've been waiting for someone to do an analysis on the Carolina Hurricanes playstyle of spray & pray, sort of the polar opposite of the Leafs hold on for glory style. Their twitter hashtag is literally #CauseChaos. Also their home ice stat tracking might be a touch wonky.

This sort of colours the statistical profiles of the players we might be shopping for on the open market.

 

[cw]

Just to see how limited Treliving's options are:

Here's what a Mitch Marner buyout would look like:
https://www.capfriendly.com/buyout-calculator/mitchell-marner

Current cap hit is $10.9 mil

After buyout, cap hit is still $10.64 mil - they would save $0.5 mil this year and give half of that back next year. Net savings $258,000 buying Marner out ...

Not only is there no movement, there is no practical buyout option. They would have no cap space to replace him while he would get $10.6 mil to do nothing.

The only concrete option Treliving has is whether he will offer Marner a contract for the 2025-26 season. If Marner starts the season like Nylander did last year, that might not even be that realistic of an 'option' - Treliving will be under pressure to offer him something.

Treliving is like the guy who keeps on asking a girl out when she wants nothing to do with him. I'm sure some might say "sometimes the girl relents .." I really don't think that is happening here before the season starts. Treliving has zero leverage.

On a talent basis for the roster, I doubt much else will make sense anyway.
The core 5 could play on any Cup winner of the past. The bigger problem is the supporting cast - which has been harmed by Leafs GMs trading away prospects & picks. They have had some cap constraints but this season, that opens up a little and next season, they have tons. If I were in their shoes that is where my focus would be - the other 18 players. Treliving seems like a hamster on the Marner wheel - going like heck but not going anywhere soon.

 

[cw]

But why only stats for games 5, 6, & 7. You don't get to those games except for winning in the first four. What about Marner's contributions in getting the team to the playoffs?

That's why I said it was cherry picking stats.

We should also make note that he's a completely different player in the regular season. Not all points are equal in terms of game-leverage.

In the Tampa series they won (the only series they won), Marner led the team in scoring with 11 points in 6 games and was a +9 ...
In the first elimination game against Florida he scored one goal and assisted on the only other to extend the series ...
but he's a bum who can't do anything meaningful in the playoffs ... except outscore his team in the playoffs over 8 seasons with the highest ppg and 2nd highest +/- on his team

To me, this stuff is crazy talk.

If they get this roster a decent goalie and two righthanded top 4 dmen - playing together for a season, (they have the cap space to do so), they'll probably do some damage in the playoffs. The UFA market for dmen was lean last summer. Looks like they'll have a better shot at them this July 1. They can't control the Marner situation but that is something they could do for themselves.

 

[ZBBM]

Thank you, cw.  Totally agree.

But nonetheless we can look forward to months of 10-cent pop psychologizing, hot-mic hot-takes, endless nattering about Marner's "camp" (whatever that means), advance-stat contrarianism, and a whole bunch of stupid ideas to give away / drive away an elite player.

 

[Guru Tugginmypuddah]

Thank you, cw.  Totally agree.

But nonetheless we can look forward to months of 10-cent pop psychologizing, hot-mic hot-takes, endless nattering about Marner's "camp" (whatever that means), advance-stat contrarianism, and a whole bunch of stupid ideas to give away / drive away an elite player.

It's down right bat shit crazy. 

 

[Joe S.]

Having lived through the Sundin era, and so have pretty much all of you, the willingness to throw away such a talented player is baffling to me.

Just imagine if Sundin had just one of Nylander, Marner or Matthews on his teams.

I?m 100% with cw on this one, supporting cast and goaltending are what need to be addressed.

It?s absolutely pathetic that the leafs haven?t drafted and developed a star goalie since Potvin. And the one they did they punted in what I call the worst trade in franchise history.

Anyway a few mini rants there.

 

[Bill_Berg]

If they do trade Marner, Leaf fans will have driven another star out of town and it will be all our fault. All of us, cause to the rest of the world, every single Leaf fan is the exact same in every way.