2024 Offseason Thread: Changes

[princedpw]

Here are my random non-sequitor 2 cents:


- the leafs were unlucky their core players chose to maximize their mid-career paychecks - not all groups of young players either choose to do so or are in a position to do so

- the leafs were much more unlucky that there was a flat cap over the past 5 years - their core signed paychecks under the expectation that the cap would rise substantially over the arc of those contracts, allowing the team to fill out the players around them.  This really could have made all the difference in several playoffs that they lost by a goal.

- Marner?s agent is smart, He is not going to negotiate a contract right now because Marner?s stock is at an all-time low. He?s going to wait at least until Marner cranks it up during the season and starts scoring at a 1.5ppg before he even considers negotiating.  Even if Marner wants to stay with the team, he has no incentive to negotiate right now. Let?s drop this topic and talk about it after the playoffs next year.

 

[Champ Kind]

I just wanted to chime in on the Marner debate: the reason it's such a polarizing topic is that there's really no win for the Leafs here.  As Herman has pointed out - and advocated directly last year at this time - the time to have traded Marner and tried to maximize his value was pre-July 1 2023.  Dubas' failed usurping of Shanahan, Treliving's newness, and (what I am beginning to conclude) Shanahan's incompetence scuttled that.  Now, you're left with slim to slimmer pickings: maybe trade Marner for fractional return or keep him and either a) overpay add another NMC, thereby guaranteeing double-digit years of a facsimilie of the previous 8, or, b) lose him for nothing but the cap space.

If it's b), then even a dumb-dumb like myself would say a fractional return is better than no return at all (X > 0).

A) cannot be an option, in my opinion, and that ship may have sailed anyway.

All of the arguments made about Marner and his performance, playing under a new coach, the Yzerman age-32 effect and all that are spot-on, as are the counter-arguments made about balancing the roster, Marner's lack of big-game gumption, etc.  But, to me, it comes down to swallowing the poison pill now - maybe with a spoonful of sugar - or next year with a cod liver oil chaser (sorry, I just made that up).

 

[Bill_Berg]

I just wanted to chime in on the Marner debate: the reason it's such a polarizing topic is that there's really no win for the Leafs here.  As Herman has pointed out - and advocated directly last year at this time - the time to have traded Marner and tried to maximize his value was pre-July 1 2023.  Dubas' failed usurping of Shanahan, Treliving's newness, and (what I am beginning to conclude) Shanahan's incompetence scuttled that.  Now, you're left with slim to slimmer pickings: maybe trade Marner for fractional return or keep him and either a) overpay add another NMC, thereby guaranteeing double-digit years of a facsimilie of the previous 8, or, b) lose him for nothing but the cap space.

If it's b), then even a dumb-dumb like myself would say a fractional return is better than no return at all (X > 0).

A) cannot be an option, in my opinion, and that ship may have sailed anyway.

All of the arguments made about Marner and his performance, playing under a new coach, the Yzerman age-32 effect and all that are spot-on, as are the counter-arguments made about balancing the roster, Marner's lack of big-game gumption, etc.  But, to me, it comes down to swallowing the poison pill now - maybe with a spoonful of sugar - or next year with a cod liver oil chaser (sorry, I just made that up).

I don't think signing Marner guarantees double-digit years of a facsimile of the previous 8. I can get behind the 45 mill for 4 forwards is a bad thing right now, but they lose JT after next year and the cap is finally going up. Cancel the cap freeze for those years and maybe 45 mill for 4 forwards doesn't look so bad.

 

[Bender]

Having lived through the Sundin era, and so have pretty much all of you, the willingness to throw away such a talented player is baffling to me.

Just imagine if Sundin had just one of Nylander, Marner or Matthews on his teams.

I?m 100% with cw on this one, supporting cast and goaltending are what need to be addressed.

It?s absolutely pathetic that the leafs haven?t drafted and developed a star goalie since Potvin. And the one they did they punted in what I call the worst trade in franchise history.

Anyway a few mini rants there.

I don't think it's baffling that teams need to make hard decisions in the salary cap era with limited funds and a full roster to flesh out and that there's disagreement with how to get there.

 

[Bender]

Just to contrast a similar situation (but different context of course)

https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/4845197/2023/09/08/maple-leafs-matthews-nylander-treliving/

Up next, Treliving hopes, is William Nylander, who is entering the final year of his contract before potentially becoming an unrestricted free agent. Treliving tried to install urgency in those talks back in June, stressing the importance of getting a quick resolution, but so far, that extension has proved elusive.

?Willy is a really important player and a really good player, and we want to get him done, too,? the Leafs GM said. ?That?s next on the list.?

So where is that negotiation now?

?I?m not going to get into the play-by-play of it other than to say he?s a very good player and you always want to keep the good players,? Treliving said. ?And he?s told me he wants to be in Toronto. That?s the most important thing. If there?s a desire on both sides, then you should be able to come to an agreement.

?But these things take time. They?re all their own independent deals, and they have their own ebbs and flows.?

The front office did check the market on Nylander?s value around the league but didn?t like the return offers and weren?t willing to lose the deal.

There was a pretty significant difference: "Player submits a 10 team no trade list."
They didn't need Nylander's permission to talk with or trade him to 21 other teams.
They didn't like the return after 21 teams looked him over.

The best case with Marner would be getting his agreement to speak with what would likely be a considerably smaller number of teams (if any) after he's already declared that he wants to remain in Toronto. So the team that potentially trades for him would know that and would do so knowing they're not his first choice and that he's half being run out of Toronto by fans and media. So they're going to pay a King's ransom for him? I don't think that is very likely. The very fact that the Leafs would entertain dealing him devalues him as it probably did Nylander.

I disagree with the tenets there. I do think they need to tread carefully but there is such a thing as persuasion. People can be lured and it happens all the time. How does that devalue him? What devalues him is inability to pit many teams against each other in a bidding war.

"How does that devalue him?"

"We're trying to win a Cup and we don't need Mitch Marner to get us to the promised land. What will you give us for him?"

Why not trade Matthews? He's taking up more cap space and has a lower ppg in the playoffs.
How about McDavid?
Those guys are not in the conversation because their teams feel they're core to their aspirations.

When a player becomes tradeable, under these circumstances, their value drops. The team that has had him for 8 years doesn't think he's critical to their Cup aspirations anymore. How can it be taken any other way?

Yes, fewer teams bidding also helps to keep the talent return in a trade lower.
But the above has an impact on his trade value as well.

"Persuasion"? In this circumstance, where Marner is on record as wanting to remain in Toronto and his agent has stated that he's firmly set on starting the season in Toronto? And his agent wants him to test free agency? He already has a big, fat line in the sand. He is so dead set, he's not entertaining extension or trade before the start of the season. Treliving will be trying to persuade someone who doesn't want to talk about it. Good luck with that.

Marner and his agent know that if he starts the season with the Leafs, it is really tough to move his big cap hit and tough to get thru the deadline doing that with any hopes of doing much in the playoffs. So they're setting the table for the Leafs to decide next summer "Do you want to lose Marner for nothing?"

I think we're on the same page when it comes to the overall situation devaluing Marner, but I think we disagree on the magnitude of effect and what are the bigger and lesser factors. Obviously I think having an NMC "devalues" a player because he can't be traded unless he's willing to walk, which may or may not happen.

My main point of contention though is your point that just having a player on the trade block devalues a player. I get what you're saying but I just don't completely buy it. A player being made available for a trade more or less acknowledges you need to make changes as a team for various reasons, not that this player is a bad player that should be valued less. By that logic any higher tier player is devalued if they're on the trading block and I just disagree with that entirely (or at least in the way I'm reading it/magnitude of the effect) and frankly I don't have the energy to argue the case anymore because I think it should be obvious that players, trades, their value etc. goes beyond simple a then b logic. In any case you know my stance, I know yours, I'll agree to disagree and move on.

 

[herman]

https://www.sportsnet.ca/nhl/article/evaluating-what-everyone-in-the-trade-marner-debate-might-want/

A Justin Bourne analysis of the perceived motivations of the 5 main stakeholders in the Marner situation, and the likeliest outcome given said motivations: Marner plays out the contract and walks in a UFA bidding war.

Everything being said publicly at this time is just posturing to maintain or attempt to increase bargaining power.

it comes down to swallowing the poison pill now - maybe with a spoonful of sugar - or next year with a cod liver oil chaser

Yes, basically this is what we are left with.

There is a slim opportunity to thread the needle (and screw with a lot of teams? offseasons) by expediting the Marner UFA sweepstakes to July 1, 2024. While that does diminish the Leafs? return, there will be an actual asset return. We can weigh the benefits of more runway for the remodeling vs one more year of service from Marner. Regardless of what they say publicly, I think this is what will happen.

I think the Leafs are at critical mass, without Marner, to make the playoffs. Not enough to win the division outright, mind you, but given some modest return + the additional cap space to buy multiple premier defense options, we could enable a more effective forward group in lines 1-4, and reinforcements in the pipeline at key positions.

 

[ZBBM]

Losing Marner will not make us a better team.  I hope he can get past all this BS and re-sign.

 

[IJustLurkHere]

I just wanted to chime in on the Marner debate: the reason it's such a polarizing topic is that there's really no win for the Leafs here.  As Herman has pointed out - and advocated directly last year at this time - the time to have traded Marner and tried to maximize his value was pre-July 1 2023. 

I think it's polarising because the bolded statement is only true if we've decided the Leafs are better without Marner. I think there are a lot of people who have internalised the "nobody else has as top heavy a salary cap structure as the Leafs" to mean "you can't win this way". While that's a perfectly valid opinion, it's not universal, and if you don't share it, then there is a winning scenario.

Sign Marner to an extension.

 

[herman]

Declarations aren?t really persuasive arguments. We should also note that we?ve really only seen Marner in a playstyle that was literally designed to be give Marner the puck. However good Marner plays, I think it?s self-evident it does not match up with his expected asking price and barely even matches his current cap hit.

 

[Bender]

Losing Marner will not make us a better team.  I hope he can get past all this BS and re-sign.

Clearly there is debate and discussion as to whether that's true or not. We are in a cap constrained world and everything is a series of trade offs. The team might be better or it might be worse based on a lot of different variables. That's reality.

 

[Zee]

Losing Marner will not make us a better team.  I hope he can get past all this BS and re-sign.

I don't necessarily agree with this. If they can spend 11 million on 2 other players that make an impact the team could be better. Say a goalie and D? You can't just automatically assume the team is worse without Marner

 

[ZBBM]

Declarations aren?t really persuasive arguments. We should also note that we?ve really only seen Marner in a playstyle that was literally designed to be give Marner the puck. However good Marner plays, I think it?s self-evident it does not match up with his expected asking price and barely even matches his current cap hit.

cw had the stats but I believe Marner has better numbers overall than Nylander, yes?  Including playoffs.  Maybe I'm wrong about that but if not he deserves to make more than Nylander.

In any event, no, it is not self-evident.  That declaration isn't persuasive.

 

[Bender]

Declarations aren?t really persuasive arguments. We should also note that we?ve really only seen Marner in a playstyle that was literally designed to be give Marner the puck. However good Marner plays, I think it?s self-evident it does not match up with his expected asking price and barely even matches his current cap hit.

cw had the stats but I believe Marner has better numbers overall than Nylander, yes?  Including playoffs.  Maybe I'm wrong about that but if not he deserves to make more than Nylander.

In any event, no, it is not self-evident.  That declaration isn't persuasive.

This is how we got into cap hell in the first place. "I want to make more the X player on our team", while I understand it, is probably not the greatest thing to have within you dressing room.

Also just points don't tell the whole story as we know. One of them has scored double the others goals in the playoffs.

 

[cw]

Declarations aren?t really persuasive arguments. We should also note that we?ve really only seen Marner in a playstyle that was literally designed to be give Marner the puck. However good Marner plays, I think it?s self-evident it does not match up with his expected asking price and barely even matches his current cap hit.

cw had the stats but I believe Marner has better numbers overall than Nylander, yes?  Including playoffs.  Maybe I'm wrong about that but if not he deserves to make more than Nylander.

In any event, no, it is not self-evident.  That declaration isn't persuasive.

Marner has significantly better scoring stats in the regular season and playoffs than Nylander. His cap hit is commensurate with others in the NHL's top 20 scoring (Marner is 10th over the last 8 years) Even if one wanted to cherry pick stats to debate Nylanders lesser scoring is more, the debate killer for me is Marner plays in both ends of the ice at a pretty decent level => Selke votes. Nylander doesn't. For me, that overwhelms any cherry picking - it is a significant tie breaker. And it would be another reason why his agent would ask for more $ than Nylander.

I really enjoy watching Nylander. I think we're lucky to have both of them.

 

[Guru Tugginmypuddah]

$12.5 x 8 and be done with it. 

 

[cw]

Declarations aren?t really persuasive arguments. We should also note that we?ve really only seen Marner in a playstyle that was literally designed to be give Marner the puck. However good Marner plays, I think it?s self-evident it does not match up with his expected asking price and barely even matches his current cap hit.

cw had the stats but I believe Marner has better numbers overall than Nylander, yes?  Including playoffs.  Maybe I'm wrong about that but if not he deserves to make more than Nylander.

In any event, no, it is not self-evident.  That declaration isn't persuasive.

Again, I was not the biggest fan of them drafting Marner.
I haven't rushed out to buy his jersey, etc.

I've been watching since the 60s. So these are players I've seen.
This is one that got me on Marner (semi repost):

Keon, Mahovlich, Sittler, Sundin, Matthews, Marner

have something in common.

They strung together 8 or more years as Leafs when they were in the top 10 in NHL scoring over that time.

(historical note: Sundin was top 3 (best of the above) in league scoring over the years he wore a Leafs jersey - only Sakic & Jagr scored more)

Do I equate Marner with the other five? No but he's done pretty darn well.

Supporting cast:
Keon & Mahovlich were part of 4 Cup winning rosters
Sittler had Lanny McDonald, Salming, Turnbull and some wingers as good as most of the recent left wingers
Sundin had Roberts, Mogilny, Kaberle/McCabe
so they all had some help

I recall my pessimism over Marner's size when he was drafted. I admit it. I was concerned.
When Marner does something like the above over 8 NHL seasons, and he did it like Keon who was also not physically big with attention to playing defense at a high level, you've got to tip your cap. No one could convince me enough to take that away from him. This is not something we've seen very often in the last 60+ years. It rattles me a little that they would just throw him on the dump heap after doing that. It seems crazy to me. We've suffered so many years and we stumble into someone like this and throw him away near his prime?

Some Leafs fans and Leafs media can sometimes be like the mammals that eat their young (I'm thinking of a bunch of the younger Leafs draft picks in decades past who got overwhelmed).

 

[herman]

I'm not against having top money dedicated to premier forwards, but they all have to be drivers, not passengers. Both current passengers are on the final years of their current deals. I think one can still drive from lower in the lineup.

Matthews arrived on a scene as a driver and has only gotten better, not only adding to his offensive arsenal, but putting dedication into the defensive side of the game and creating additional opportunities for his teammates with his puck retrieval, positioning, and gravitational pull. He put up 40 goals on a down year with a busted wrist by adapting to his inability to shoot and attacking the slot with tips and dekes instead.

Tavares was a driver when we signed him and has aged into a passenger with some specialties. Guess who the coach has nearly always relied on to get him into good positions to capitalize on his skill set on the back half of his career? Heading into the final year of his contract, he might be better suited driving a 3rd line with big, fast, lunch pail wingers who can play fetch, and just pop pucks loose into chaos for Tavares' hands to go to work.

Marner has a relentless motor and puts in effort at both ends of the ice to make plays with the puck. He started on a third line with our former 1st liners, and was then trusted to wingman the Leafs top pivots over the years thanks to his playmaking acumen. He is not the fastest in straight lines, but very agile and favours using his macro-creativity to generate opportunities for linemates, often where no one (even his linemates sometimes) expects it. He puts up points as the Leafs tend to use him as the QB in the offensive zone with their preferred methodical, patient attack style.

Nylander started his career as a passenger to Matthews, but adapted to the rigours of the NHL in body composition and playstyle, and is one of the rare play drivers from the wing. He hugged the perimeter when he was smaller, but now is one of the hardest players to stop when he drives the net, with a handful of go-to moves he has honed over the years. He has started to apply his puck skills and board work more consistently in the DZ and often plays the centre's role in swinging low support and NZ transporter. Keefe routinely called on Nylander to lead secondary offense when he felt the need to create super lines, leading to regular playoff linemates such as Alex Kerfoot, Noel Acciari, Pierre Engvall, Alex Galchenyuk, David Kampf, Sam Lafferty, etc.

 

[Bullfrog]

Declarations aren?t really persuasive arguments. We should also note that we?ve really only seen Marner in a playstyle that was literally designed to be give Marner the puck. However good Marner plays, I think it?s self-evident it does not match up with his expected asking price and barely even matches his current cap hit.

11th in points over the last 3 years (7th in ppg), plays PK/PP, selke voting, 12th highest cap hit. 2nd straight season of 101-point pace.

"barely" matches is a thinly veiled insult. His play/value clearly matches his cap hit.

Go ahead and continue to be critical of his play, his fit, whether he or multiple lesser players are better, etc. But can you admit he's an extremely talented, valuable player who earns his cap hit?

We get you don't like him, but your criticism is becoming comical at this point.

 

[dappleganger]

Declarations aren?t really persuasive arguments. We should also note that we?ve really only seen Marner in a playstyle that was literally designed to be give Marner the puck. However good Marner plays, I think it?s self-evident it does not match up with his expected asking price and barely even matches his current cap hit.

11th in points over the last 3 years (7th in ppg), plays PK/PP, selke voting, 12th highest cap hit. 2nd straight season of 101-point pace.

"barely" matches is a thinly veiled insult. His play/value clearly matches his cap hit.

Go ahead and continue to be critical of his play, his fit, whether he or multiple lesser players are better, etc. But can you admit he's an extremely talented, valuable player who earns his cap hit?

We get you don't like him, but your criticism is becoming comical at this point.

Agreed Bullfrog, Marner has played relative to his cap hit. My qualm is he should sign for $11m a season and not $12.5m (or any huge increase over what he makes now). He shouldn't be the 4th highest paid player in the league, his play doesn't align with that.

 

[L K]

Declarations aren?t really persuasive arguments. We should also note that we?ve really only seen Marner in a playstyle that was literally designed to be give Marner the puck. However good Marner plays, I think it?s self-evident it does not match up with his expected asking price and barely even matches his current cap hit.

11th in points over the last 3 years (7th in ppg), plays PK/PP, selke voting, 12th highest cap hit. 2nd straight season of 101-point pace.

"barely" matches is a thinly veiled insult. His play/value clearly matches his cap hit.

Go ahead and continue to be critical of his play, his fit, whether he or multiple lesser players are better, etc. But can you admit he's an extremely talented, valuable player who earns his cap hit?

We get you don't like him, but your criticism is becoming comical at this point.

I think the problem is that the Leafs players are matching their salary but we haven't really seen any sort of discount.  Everyone essentially skipped the bridge deal (Nylander was sort of a bridge) so we didn't get the good value years coming off entry level contracts and now are giving out more raises that put the Leafs at the top of the salary lists.

MacKinnon is making 12.6 million.  Pettersson is going to make 11.6M.  Pastrnak is making 11.5M

It's not Marner's obligation to sign at a discount but the Leafs don't seem to get value out of their premier players in the same way that other teams are getting.  We seem to have to pay what they are worth (obviously in a perfect world the cap would be much higher and guys like Matthews would be making 20M...but that isn't how the owners/Bettman want to drive growth of the game).

Marner is good.  He's going to leave a massive hole that two Tyler Bertuzzi's aren't going to fill...it's more that I don't think Berube is going to change the style enough to make the team feel different.  The glaring hole of this team is that our defense sucks at moving the puck.  We did a decent job of making our blueline tough over the last 2-3 years.  We don't give up a lot of brutal chances in the playoffs...but they can't move the puck up the ice.  Goals are scored almost exclusively on the transition right now and the Leafs suck at getting the puck through the neutral zone come the postseason. 

I just don't see how you make the necessary changes and keep Marner around.