2024 Offseason Thread: Changes

[cabber24]

I'd take one Marner over two Bertuzzis.

Me too. In a heartbeat.

Bertuzzi's agent says there's been 'productive talks' with Maple Leafs

I don't understand why. He is well down my priority list.

What are you guys talking about? MM 10.9 + TB 5.5 = $16.4M.

Bertuzzi is not getting $8.2M.

 

[Joe S.]

I'd take one Marner over two Bertuzzis.

Me too. In a heartbeat.

Bertuzzi's agent says there's been 'productive talks' with Maple Leafs

I don't understand why. He is well down my priority list.

What are you guys talking about? MM 10.9 + TB 5.5 = $16.4M.

Bertuzzi is not getting $8.2M.

Your math isn?t mathing

 

[cw]

I'd take one Marner over two Bertuzzis.

Me too. In a heartbeat.

Bertuzzi's agent says there's been 'productive talks' with Maple Leafs

I don't understand why. He is well down my priority list.

What are you guys talking about? MM 10.9 + TB 5.5 = $16.4M.

Bertuzzi is not getting $8.2M.

2 x TB = 2 x 5.5 = $11 mil for two Tyler Bertuzzis

I do not think we need one at that $5.5M price.

I'd rather spend that money on a top 4 RH dman while we have some to pick up on the UFA market

I think that would be a better bang for their buck on this roster.

 

[Bullfrog]

I think this narrative of "it's a disaster if we can't trade X player" should stop. It's not a disaster. He played, he was paid. That should be the expectation. Life will move on.

Having him on the roster increases the chance of making and having success in the playoffs.

That's great that you think the "narrative" should stop, but I happen to think it's by far the worst outcome from a team perspective if he just walks. Life moves on, and the Leafs are a worse team and I don't think having the cap space is worth both not having Marner and not having assets come back from a Marner trade.

Worst outcome, sure. Disaster? no. There will be good players willing to sign in Toronto.

 

[Bender]

I think this narrative of "it's a disaster if we can't trade X player" should stop. It's not a disaster. He played, he was paid. That should be the expectation. Life will move on.

Having him on the roster increases the chance of making and having success in the playoffs.

That's great that you think the "narrative" should stop, but I happen to think it's by far the worst outcome from a team perspective if he just walks. Life moves on, and the Leafs are a worse team and I don't think having the cap space is worth both not having Marner and not having assets come back from a Marner trade.

Worst outcome, sure. Disaster? no. There will be good players willing to sign in Toronto.

It's pretty horrible from an asset management perspective considering we have nothing coming down the pipeline and Marner can't be replaced via free agency.

 

[mr grieves]

That depends on what the UFA market looks like for July 2025 in the spring of 2025.

I regard their 'window' with Matthews as the next four seasons. After that, if he still hasn't won here, why should he hang around?

If Marner looks to be headed out the door with no return and the Leafs feel the UFA market can't replace him (which I think is likely), then I would re-sign him because they've only got 3 more shots and no time to replace him.
$13 Mil seems steep. He'll be north of Nylander. I think he's a better player because he plays a 200-foot game. But I'm not sure it will be that high/as close to Matthews.
If the Leafs don't ante up, he'll get it or something very close on the open market and be gone quickly in early July 2025.
If the Leafs stop the stupid media chatter that they'd fed and play nice, they could get a home town discount. I believe him when he says that he wants to play in Toronto.

We have 4 years to win it with Matthews. That should guide a lot of their thinking on roster and contract decisions.

Is that $13M with the Leafs, over 8 years? Because to get that $104M on the open market would require someone go north of $14.5M. Where would he go to find a contract like that? What TB did with Stamkos seems a very reasonable and prudent way to handle Marner's next contract.

 

[Joe S.]

What TB did with Stamkos seems a very reasonable and prudent way to handle Marner's next contract.

So find a way to have no state income tax in a Canadian province?

 

[dappleganger]

What TB did with Stamkos seems a very reasonable and prudent way to handle Marner's next contract.

So find a way to have no state income tax in a Canadian province?

It's funny, taxing the "signing bonus" at 15% like the current John Tavares CRA situation gets you very close to the same tax level as a Florida 'no tax' state.

 

[cw]

That depends on what the UFA market looks like for July 2025 in the spring of 2025.

I regard their 'window' with Matthews as the next four seasons. After that, if he still hasn't won here, why should he hang around?

If Marner looks to be headed out the door with no return and the Leafs feel the UFA market can't replace him (which I think is likely), then I would re-sign him because they've only got 3 more shots and no time to replace him.
$13 Mil seems steep. He'll be north of Nylander. I think he's a better player because he plays a 200-foot game. But I'm not sure it will be that high/as close to Matthews.
If the Leafs don't ante up, he'll get it or something very close on the open market and be gone quickly in early July 2025.
If the Leafs stop the stupid media chatter that they'd fed and play nice, they could get a home town discount. I believe him when he says that he wants to play in Toronto.

We have 4 years to win it with Matthews. That should guide a lot of their thinking on roster and contract decisions.

Is that $13M with the Leafs, over 8 years? Because to get that $104M on the open market would require someone go north of $14.5M. Where would he go to find a contract like that? What TB did with Stamkos seems a very reasonable and prudent way to handle Marner's next contract.

I doubt it would hit $13M with the Leafs. He has to be below Matthews. He should be more than Nylander because Nylander is not into a number things to be a complete player and Marner outscores him and plays 200 ft, etc. So in the Leafs salary structure, Marner is arguably between Nylander's $11.5 and Matthews $13.5.

Right now, there are only 7 UFA forwards for 2025-26 (not Marner or Tavares) under the age of 34 with .80 ppg or better last season. Like Marner, they cannot sign a new contract until July 1. A bunch of them will re-sign. If Marner gets added to that small crop of whatever UFAs are left, 31 teams potentially bidding to get a blue chip asset for free (aside from $) could drive his contract north of Matthews. Maybe he does what Matthews did - a 3-4 year deal so he can take another run at a hefty contract to finish his career.

There's bound to be a GM or two get silly. At that point, I think destination will become more important him and the dollars will get a little more sensible.

At the end of his current contract, Marner will have made $68M. Adding $100M +/- to that - how much does that matter at that point if he's going to a team that he thinks is best for him and his family. Florida or some low tax US state offering $100M closer to tax free vs what Tavares might be facing - that could tip the scales.

 

[cw]

I think this narrative of "it's a disaster if we can't trade X player" should stop. It's not a disaster. He played, he was paid. That should be the expectation. Life will move on.

Having him on the roster increases the chance of making and having success in the playoffs.

That's great that you think the "narrative" should stop, but I happen to think it's by far the worst outcome from a team perspective if he just walks. Life moves on, and the Leafs are a worse team and I don't think having the cap space is worth both not having Marner and not having assets come back from a Marner trade.

Worst outcome, sure. Disaster? no. There will be good players willing to sign in Toronto.

I would worry that Marner walking for nothing could significantly compromise their Cup chances with Matthews. Leafs management probably worries about that too.

UFA market for 2025-26 already looks slim - I doubt a bunch of them will be UFAs by the time Jul 2025 rolls around. If Marner is a UFA, he'll cash in big time.

Trading involves giving up assets to get back assets. It is not typically the asset boost adding a UFA can provide. Cap space for trading isn't as much of a direct boost.

That's why I think it is so unlikely Marner walks unless they piss him off. Leafs management will probably not let Marner significantly compromise their playoff contention (which his departure for nothing will probably do) because their jobs are on the line if they don't make headway there.

One thing the Leafs have going for them is Marner wanted to re-sign.
So they better cool it and not continue to make them "mad" (according to Friedman)

Agent Ferris knows all this and will play it like a concert violinist.
He's got them over a barrel.

 

[dappleganger]

Connor McDavid, with 42 points so far this playoffs, is approaching the career playoff point totals of the Leafs Marner, Matthews, Nylander, Tavares, in this playoffs alone. Ouch.

 

[Joe S.]

If you?re highlighting how impressive his run is, then sure, but if you?re using this as an indictment against the leafs players, that?s a little odd.

But just taking a Quick Look in the 22-23 he was actually at a higher ppg pace than this playoff run. Either way, the best player in the nhl being the best player in the nhl is great.

 

[CarltonTheBear]

https://x.com/kevin_mcgran/status/1803891631457997291

First time we've really heard anything about Gio since the season ended. Per his agent his hopes to play "for a few more years". That seems... optimistic for a defenceman who turns 41 this October.

 

[Arn]

He could still do a job in the Alps Hockey League for one of the Italian teams

 

[cw]

https://twitter.com/kevin_mcgran/status/1803891631457997291

First time we've really heard anything about Gio since the season ended. Per his agent his hopes to play "for a few more years". That seems... optimistic for a defenceman who turns 41 this October.

Seems like very good guy.
I didn't think he was bad last season.
He could probably play a #6/7 dman on a developing team and help bring the kids along.

 

[IJustLurkHere]

$13M/8yrs Full NMC for Marner or he walks. Would you sign him?

Yes.

Players like Marner are extremely hard to come by. Trying to be clever with cap space is an easy way to make the team worse.

 

[CarltonTheBear]

https://twitter.com/AnaheimDucks/status/1804247304104480877
https://twitter.com/richclune/status/1804882699540197825

Not exactly massively significant news, but Rich Clunes has left the organization to join the Ducks as an assistant coach. Very large opportunity for him after having just been an AHL assistant coach for half a season. He took over after Eric Wellwood has to take a LOA due to medical reasons, and I was just reading an article last week (here) about what a great job he did in such a short period of time.

Clune has been in the organization (of course primarily as a Marlie) since the 2015-16 season. By all accounts he made a very large impact both on and off the ice with the Marlies and it's a bit of a shame he won't be sticking around longer but obviously that's an offer he just can't pass up. Good luck to him there.

 

[herman]

https://twitter.com/apetrielli/status/1805590624579600861

?  I didn?t write about each UFA for the Leafs, but the one that I would most like to bring back (by far) is Tyler Bertuzzi. He might not have produced as much as fans hoped, nor is he a bruising, physical power forward (at least in the regular season; I thought he was very physical in the playoffs). However, he was a difference-maker for me.

A few things stood out with Bertuzzi when I went through the 2023-24 season. The Bertuzzi ? Tavares ? Nylander line was the Leafs? best for the first half of the campaign. When the Leafs broke records on the man advantage in February, Bertuzzi was on the top power-play unit. Towards the end of the season, the Bertuzzi ? Matthews ? Domi line emerged as their best line. Therefore, Bertuzzi was on the Leafs? best line for most of the season, and the power play was at its best with him on it.

Bertuzzi?s game can be tough to watch at times, but he does many things right, some of which go under-appreciated. He creates space for teammates along the walls, is effective in front of the net, and isn?t a liability defensively. With his work either in front of the net or on the forecheck (or both), there were more than a handful of goals he had a major hand in without collecting a point. The Leafs can and did trust him to close games.

 

[OldTimeHockey]

My 2 main problems with Bertuzzi were this:

1. His scoring was less than I would have liked. But looking at it now, it doesn't seem as bad as I remember.
2. His antics in the playoffs were a problem. I appreciate the "I'm an agitator" attitude. I just don't think he went about it the right way. Especially when he's trying to egg on the best agitator in the game.

 

[herman]

https://x.com/jonassiegel/status/1805969089518567545
[*] runner up in the Markstrom deal
[*] Broissoit, Lankinen, Stolarz, and Talbot are the plan B for a tandem G
[*] D is the priority: Two of Tanev, Zadorov, Montour, Skej, and Roy mentioned
[*] Wings in mind: Perron, Joshua, DeBrusk

Most importantly, and rather self-inflicted:

Based on what we?re hearing, the Leafs ? in their exploration of a Marner trade through calls to teams around the league ? are already getting a good sense of the challenges involved with making this deal.

One, in particular, seems to be a lack of teams that a) Marner would conceivably accept a trade to that can b) accommodate his $10.9 million cap hit for next season and c) are willing to send back piece(s) the Leafs would find attractive, which would ideally include an impact defenceman.

There?s also the extension that Marner and his agent, Darren Ferris, would have to work out with said team, assuming that Marner even consents to the trade.

The timeline alone seems to be working against a trade, as does the fact his camp continues to broadcast that they have no intention of waiving a no-movement clause to facilitate a deal.

But, as mentioned, the Leafs are certainly exploring all of their options throughout the lineup right now, including what might be available in return for Marner.

I would take a boatload of picks + useful veteran cap dump, but it would sure be nice to get a prospect on the cusp of breaking out.