2024 Offseason Thread: Changes

[herman]

We also don't have the luxury of having the best player in the world to which that general thinking may not apply to.

One of them is paid like he should be the best, but the combo of him and our second best star has consistently fallen well short in the top heavy configuration. My observed theory is that teams zeroed in heavily on taking away the pass to Matthews AND the Marner generally waited for opposing defenses to set up while fishing for the home run pass.

 

[Bender]

We also don't have the luxury of having the best player in the world to which that general thinking may not apply to.

One of them is paid like he should be the best, but the combo of him and our second best star has consistently fallen well short in the top heavy configuration. My observed theory is that teams zeroed in heavily on taking away the pass to Matthews AND the Marner generally waited for opposing defenses to set up while fishing for the home run pass.

Here's a weird thought. Is Marner just a younger Huberdeau?

 

[OldTimeHockey]

We also don't have the luxury of having the best player in the world to which that general thinking may not apply to.

One of them is paid like he should be the best, but the combo of him and our second best star has consistently fallen well short in the top heavy configuration. My observed theory is that teams zeroed in heavily on taking away the pass to Matthews AND the Marner generally waited for opposing defenses to set up while fishing for the home run pass.

I think you're correct. Take away the middle of the ice by playing a box +1 formation. Keep the puck from crossing the royal road and you're able to neutralize Matthews(at least as much as it can possibly be done).

 

[herman]

Here's a weird thought. Is Marner just a younger Huberdeau?

Not a weird thought, but Marner is not only younger, but better than Huberdeau (when they were the same age). Caveat being that when Huberdeau was younger, Florida was shite. Performance numbers tend to follow the tide. Huberdeau has a technically stronger shot, but Marner has a higher goal rate (Matthews and Tavares and Nylander tend to draw open looks for their linemates).

They have similar playoff outputs save for one outlier year for each.

The fun thing, is Huberdeau's career year appears to have been sparked by the change in coaching that favoured counter-attack rush chances (Huberdeau's individual rush attempts at 5v5 went from 4 to 10 between 2020-21 and 2021-22 when he had his 115 pt season; similarly big upticks for other Panthers), which is essentially the direction I've been wanting the Leafs to lean into (see fasstholes). I think Marner would absolutely cook in such an environment if he isn't given so much time to overthink and just weave magic out of chaos.

Guess who leads the Leafs in rush chances (and in not overthinking; or thinking at all)?

 

[herman]

We also don't have the luxury of having the best player in the world to which that general thinking may not apply to.

One of them is paid like he should be the best, but the combo of him and our second best star has consistently fallen well short in the top heavy configuration. My observed theory is that teams zeroed in heavily on taking away the pass to Matthews AND the Marner generally waited for opposing defenses to set up while fishing for the home run pass.

I think you're correct. Take away the middle of the ice by playing a box +1 formation. Keep the puck from crossing the royal road and you're able to neutralize Matthews(at least as much as it can possibly be done).

Doesn't matter how potent the scorpion's stinger is if the tail is consistently cut off. 23M of the cap and 55% of the Leafs offense neutralized by plugs with good, committed effort.

Play them separately and Marner can be more unpredictable, and Matthews can actually play the puck and chew through defenses as he does. I don't know why we had to watch 4 straight years of the Leafs trying to chain 5-8 perfect passes to attack the net.

 

[CarltonTheBear]

I would pay to watch a 2-hour movie detailing whatever the heck happened to Huberdeau. Like yeah systems, teammates, cities all changed but to go from a guy who was 4th in the league in scoring over a 4-year period (behind only McDavid, Draisaitl, Kane) to immediately just becoming a 50-point guy feels unheard of.

 

[herman]

I would pay to watch a 2-hour movie detailing whatever the heck happened to Huberdeau. Like yeah systems, teammates, cities all changed but to go from a guy who was 4th in the league in scoring over a 4-year period (behind only McDavid, Draisaitl, Kane) to immediately just becoming a 50-point guy feels unheard of.

Darryl Sutter?
https://www.sportsnet.ca/nhl/article/huberdeau-says-sutter-didnt-put-flames-players-in-a-position-to-succeed/

 

[bustaheims]

Not a weird thought, but Marner is not only younger, but better than Huberdeau (when they were the same age). Caveat being that when Huberdeau was younger, Florida was shite. Performance numbers tend to follow the tide. Huberdeau has a technically stronger shot, but Marner has a higher goal rate (Matthews and Tavares and Nylander tend to draw open looks for their linemates).

They have similar playoff outputs save for one outlier year for each.

The fun thing, is Huberdeau's career year appears to have been sparked by the change in coaching that favoured counter-attack rush chances (Huberdeau's individual rush attempts at 5v5 went from 4 to 10 between 2020-21 and 2021-22 when he had his 115 pt season; similarly big upticks for other Panthers), which is essentially the direction I've been wanting the Leafs to lean into (see fasstholes). I think Marner would absolutely cook in such an environment if he isn't given so much time to overthink and just weave magic out of chaos.

Guess who leads the Leafs in rush chances (and in not overthinking; or thinking at all)?

That is ultimately Marner's playoff issue - as things tighten up after the first few games of the first round, instead of simplifying his game and moving the puck more quickly, he overthinks and overcomplicates. If a coaching staff can break him of that mindset, I think we'll see his game translate really well to the tighter checking that comes as the playoffs progress. He's a great precision passer, even when he doesn't have a ton of time, and he'd be able to create holes instead of trying to find them.

 

[herman]

That is ultimately Marner's playoff issue - as things tighten up after the first few games of the first round, instead of simplifying his game and moving the puck more quickly, he overthinks and overcomplicates. If a coaching staff can break him of that mindset, I think we'll see his game translate really well to the tighter checking that comes as the playoffs progress. He's a great precision passer, even when he doesn't have a ton of time, and he'd be able to create holes instead of trying to find them.

Precision passing is great and all; for the playoffs (and regular season), the Leafs need to lean on attacking with area passes so linemates can skate into the puck with speed to create those rush chances. Especially with SBA ice being routinely sludge, where 50% of our games are played, relying so heavily on precision and finesse is just a recipe for disappointment.

 

[bustaheims]

That is ultimately Marner's playoff issue - as things tighten up after the first few games of the first round, instead of simplifying his game and moving the puck more quickly, he overthinks and overcomplicates. If a coaching staff can break him of that mindset, I think we'll see his game translate really well to the tighter checking that comes as the playoffs progress. He's a great precision passer, even when he doesn't have a ton of time, and he'd be able to create holes instead of trying to find them.

Precision passing is great and all; for the playoffs (and regular season), the Leafs need to lean on attacking with area passes so linemates can skate into the puck with speed to create those rush chances. Especially with SBA ice being routinely sludge, where 50% of our games are played, relying so heavily on precision and finesse is just a recipe for disappointment.

An effective area pass still requires precision. You have to be able to put the puck into the part of the area you're aiming for where it's most likely to be received by your teammate and not just result in a turnover.

 

[herman]

An effective area pass still requires precision. You have to be able to put the puck into the part of the area you're aiming for where it's most likely to be received by your teammate and not just result in a turnover.

Definitely true; slightly different type precision is the kicker. With a tape to tape pass, you have to be precise on location but the draw weight (to borrow curling parlance: how hard to pass the puck) just needs to be whatever gets it there for the recipient to stop or shoot off of. With an area pass, the precision is more lax on location and more dependent on the draw weight. Using the boards helps bypass interceptions and reduce the precision required for the draw weight.

In any case, I don't doubt the personnel's ability, but it should be something the coaching staff bake into the systems so players can maintain speed and be effective with less puck handling. It'll help us play faster as a team and get behind defenses and attack before they set up.

The Leafs are horrid on home ice in the playoffs. And there are plenty of reasons for that (overthinking), but I think trying to finesse the offense on bad ice conditions is a big part of it.

2020 play-in bubble: 1-2
2021 bubble season: 1-1-2
2022: 2-2
2023-1: 1-2
2023-2: 0-3
2024: 1-2

In the Keefe era of the Leafs, that's 6 wins on home ice in 20 opportunities; 2 of them when there were no fans in the stands.

 

[cabber24]

An effective area pass still requires precision. You have to be able to put the puck into the part of the area you're aiming for where it's most likely to be received by your teammate and not just result in a turnover.

Definitely true; slightly different type precision is the kicker. With a tape to tape pass, you have to be precise on location but the draw weight (to borrow curling parlance: how hard to pass the puck) just needs to be whatever gets it there for the recipient to stop or shoot off of. With an area pass, the precision is more lax on location and more dependent on the draw weight. Using the boards helps bypass interceptions and reduce the precision required for the draw weight.

In any case, I don't doubt the personnel's ability, but it should be something the coaching staff bake into the systems so players can maintain speed and be effective with less puck handling. It'll help us play faster as a team and get behind defenses and attack before they set up.

The Leafs are horrid on home ice in the playoffs. And there are plenty of reasons for that (overthinking), but I think trying to finesse the offense on bad ice conditions is a big part of it.

2020 play-in bubble: 1-2
2021 bubble season: 1-1-2
2022: 2-2
2023-1: 1-2
2023-2: 0-3
2024: 1-2

In the Keefe era of the Leafs, that's 6 wins on home ice in 20 opportunities; 2 of them when there were no fans in the stands.

Wow, those home win stats are hermandous (horrendous)! Looking forward to new coaching and a post-4-forwards-making-8-figures (25/26). I think we're still in rerun mode this season.

 

[L K]

The flip side to that is the Leafs were 1-1; 2-0-1; 1-1-1; 4-0-1; 2-1-1 on the road in the playoffs.

That had the Leafs playing in Columbus, Montreal, Tampa, Florida and Boston. 

10-3-4 on the road vs 6-12-2 at home.

I don't know that the ice is the issue when the Leafs have been playing in other heavy use rinks and don't have the same problem winning games on the road. 

 

[cw]

Among all forwards in the playoffs since 2016-17 to the present with 30 or more playoff games, Marner is 8th in assists per game. Here's the 7 who did better:
Connor McDavid
Nikita Kucherov
Leon Draisaitl
Mikko Rantanen
Sidney Crosby
Blake Wheeler
Nathan MacKinnon

I don't understand the disdain for this player and this stuff about his inability to pass in the playoffs or whatever the heck that is. Nor this stuff about him being primarily at fault for the team's lower playoff scoring when he's their leading playoff scorer. It doesn't seem to jive with the facts that have no opinion.

 

[IJustLurkHere]

That is ultimately Marner's playoff issue - as things tighten up after the first few games of the first round, instead of simplifying his game and moving the puck more quickly, he overthinks and overcomplicates. If a coaching staff can break him of that mindset, I think we'll see his game translate really well to the tighter checking that comes as the playoffs progress. He's a great precision passer, even when he doesn't have a ton of time, and he'd be able to create holes instead of trying to find them.

Marner's playoff issue in 2024 wasn't tighter checking, it was that he didn't produce on the Powerplay. The Leafs went 1 for 21 at the same time as the Penalty Kill (of which Marner is also a key feature) crumbled (though to be fair, it's not like this was a strength). In '22 and '23, Marner produced well, overcoming the checking at a > PPG clip. This production was underpinned by solid PP work: His 14 pts in 11 games in '23 included 6 points on the PP. In 2024, for the first time in his playoff career, Marner put up zero points on the PP for the series.

 

[cabber24]

Among all forwards in the playoffs since 2016-17 to the present with 30 or more playoff games, Marner is 8th in assists per game. Here's the 7 who did better:
Connor McDavid
Nikita Kucherov
Leon Draisaitl
Mikko Rantanen
Sidney Crosby
Blake Wheeler
Nathan MacKinnon

I don't understand the disdain for this player and this stuff about his inability to pass in the playoffs or whatever the heck that is. Nor this stuff about him being primarily at fault for the team's lower playoff scoring when he's their leading playoff scorer. It doesn't seem to jive with the facts that have no opinion.

Not disdain, the team is due for reallocation and Marner's contract is up next so yes everyone is pointing out his flaws because a decision needs to be made about whether he stays or goes from both the team side and Marner's side.

 

[herman]

Among all forwards in the playoffs since 2016-17 to the present with 30 or more playoff games, Marner is 8th in assists per game. Here's the 7 who did better:
Connor McDavid
Nikita Kucherov
Leon Draisaitl
Mikko Rantanen
Sidney Crosby
Blake Wheeler
Nathan MacKinnon

I don't understand the disdain for this player and this stuff about his inability to pass in the playoffs or whatever the heck that is. Nor this stuff about him being primarily at fault for the team's lower playoff scoring when he's their leading playoff scorer. It doesn't seem to jive with the facts that have no opinion.

Not disdain, the team is due for reallocation and Marner's contract is up next so yes everyone is pointing out his flaws because a decision needs to be made about whether he stays or goes from both the team side and Marner's side.

To be fair to cw, I was going to point to Marner being the punt option regardless of contract status. And perhaps I sound crazy and nursing a vendetta of some sort, but really it's just my evaluation of the play style vs cap hit expectations I think we need on the team. I also don't care all that much about assist numbers in general.

 

[Bender]

Among all forwards in the playoffs since 2016-17 to the present with 30 or more playoff games, Marner is 8th in assists per game. Here's the 7 who did better:
Connor McDavid
Nikita Kucherov
Leon Draisaitl
Mikko Rantanen
Sidney Crosby
Blake Wheeler
Nathan MacKinnon

I don't understand the disdain for this player and this stuff about his inability to pass in the playoffs or whatever the heck that is. Nor this stuff about him being primarily at fault for the team's lower playoff scoring when he's their leading playoff scorer. It doesn't seem to jive with the facts that have no opinion.

Not disdain, the team is due for reallocation and Marner's contract is up next so yes everyone is pointing out his flaws because a decision needs to be made about whether he stays or goes from both the team side and Marner's side.

To be fair to cw, I was going to point to Marner being the punt option regardless of contract status. And perhaps I sound crazy and nursing a vendetta of some sort, but really it's just my evaluation of the play style vs cap hit expectations I think we need on the team. I also don't care all that much about assist numbers in general.

Max Domi would pile a ton of assists giving the puck to Auston.

 

[cabber24]

Among all forwards in the playoffs since 2016-17 to the present with 30 or more playoff games, Marner is 8th in assists per game. Here's the 7 who did better:
Connor McDavid
Nikita Kucherov
Leon Draisaitl
Mikko Rantanen
Sidney Crosby
Blake Wheeler
Nathan MacKinnon

I don't understand the disdain for this player and this stuff about his inability to pass in the playoffs or whatever the heck that is. Nor this stuff about him being primarily at fault for the team's lower playoff scoring when he's their leading playoff scorer. It doesn't seem to jive with the facts that have no opinion.

Not disdain, the team is due for reallocation and Marner's contract is up next so yes everyone is pointing out his flaws because a decision needs to be made about whether he stays or goes from both the team side and Marner's side.

To be fair to cw, I was going to point to Marner being the punt option regardless of contract status. And perhaps I sound crazy and nursing a vendetta of some sort, but really it's just my evaluation of the play style vs cap hit expectations I think we need on the team. I also don't care all that much about assist numbers in general.

Max Domi would pile a ton of assists giving the puck to Auston.

I wasn't overly surprised that Matthews kept piling up goals without Marner. I also don't think superstars should kill penalties. Never heard of an 8 figure forward that kills penalties. Save your superstar ice time for offense. Yes, everyone needs to play responsible defensive hockey but we need our stars scoring not killing penalties.

 

[CarltonTheBear]

I wasn't overly surprised that Matthews kept piling up goals without Marner. I also don't think superstars should kill penalties. Never heard of an 8 figure forward that kills penalties. Save your superstar ice time for offense. Yes, everyone needs to play responsible defensive hockey but we need our stars scoring not killing penalties.

Well Florida just won a Cup with Reinhart and Barkov being 3-4 in TOI among forwards on the PK for them in the regular season and playoffs.

Now maybe we could manage Marner's minutes a little bit better on the PK and maybe not play him on the top unit, but it feels like that's been done more out of necessity than anything recently. But I don't agree he (or Matthews) shouldn't kill penalties at all. Most superstars might not kill penalties but most of them also aren't Selke calibre forwards.