2024 Offseason Thread: Changes

[Joe S.]

I think sometimes people forget at the end of the day he, and every other athlete are human beings with emotions.

I mean it's sports.  When things go wrong in sports people talk about it. Most of the criticism goes towards the guys who are the perceived leaders of the team and who make the most money. It sucks but that's how it is. I'm just saying it obviously affects him and he's bothered by it, so this probably isn't the best place for him to play. It would be better for him to move on

I agree. Which is kinda what I?m saying in my last post.

 

[Guilt Trip]

Paying guys off the charts to the detriment of everything else is a terrible plan.

Who was really paid off the charts? Not Matthews or Willy. Marner maybe a million too much? Too much, sure but not PLD, Huberdeau bad.

And who gave Huberdeau that contract? Not that I?m disagreeing with your overall point.

Please let it be anyone other than the current GM of the Leafs... 

Haha..you know it was...

 

[herman]

So I just went down the rabbit hole of trying to verify if that?s truly Marner?s grandma throwin? haymakers on social media.

 

[ZBBM]

Paying guys off the charts to the detriment of everything else is a terrible plan.

Who was really paid off the charts? Not Matthews or Willy. Marner maybe a million too much? Too much, sure but not PLD, Huberdeau bad.

Since he came into the league, Marner is 10th in NHL scoring.
Since signing the current contract, Marner is 7th in NHL scoring and 8th in ppg
The players in that rental district are getting the kind of dough Marner is.
Marner does something not all of them do: plays a responsible 200 foot game and helps on the PK.
If Marner is overpaid, I do not think it is by much - maybe a few hundred grand.

Marner is not a perfect player but he consistently does a lot of very good things at a high level.

In Leafs all-time career stats, Marner is 3rd in Leafs ppg, 5th in assists, 8th in scoring & 16th in goals. He's only 27 years old.

This cherry picking of game 5-7 playoff stats bothered me.
First of all, you don't get to games 5-7 if you aren't scoring in games 1-4.
Since he pulled on a Leafs jersey in 2016-17, the Leafs leading playoff scorer is ... Mitch Marner!!
With Leafs playoff scoring an issue, people want to get rid of their top playoff scorer to solve it? Doesn't make sense to me.

Since 2017, the Leafs scored 28 PP goals in the playoffs. Marner scored or assisted on 17 of them (61%). With a shift in the difference in the playoffs to special teams increasingly deciding the outcome, chucking the best or one of the best special teams guy(s) (he Pk's too) probably shouldn't be at the top of the list.

There's still a bunch to find out about what happened. I read today about how Tavares & Marner were the Pastrnak checking line with two thirds of their starts in the d-zone because Keefe didn't feel he had anyone else up to it (Kampf & Holmberg according to Keefe were not). Add in Matthews & Nylander injuries and the core 4 were neutralized for a hunk of the series.

I think that some of the over-reactions are emotional / irrational.

We have a window - it is half closed. They need to be careful about what they do.
If they could find a reliable, healthy goalie, the playoff roster as otherwise is would be a contender in my opinion. I hope the media rhetoric dies down trying to find a sacrificial Leafs player lamb for their readers/subscribers and cooler, smarter heads prevail.

This, people.  And lay off the armchair psychologizing already. 

 

[cw]

Paying guys off the charts to the detriment of everything else is a terrible plan.

Who was really paid off the charts? Not Matthews or Willy. Marner maybe a million too much? Too much, sure but not PLD, Huberdeau bad.

Since he came into the league, Marner is 10th in NHL scoring.
Since signing the current contract, Marner is 7th in NHL scoring and 8th in ppg
The players in that rental district are getting the kind of dough Marner is.
Marner does something not all of them do: plays a responsible 200 foot game and helps on the PK.
If Marner is overpaid, I do not think it is by much - maybe a few hundred grand.

Marner is not a perfect player but he consistently does a lot of very good things at a high level.

In Leafs all-time career stats, Marner is 3rd in Leafs ppg, 5th in assists, 8th in scoring & 16th in goals. He's only 27 years old.

This cherry picking of game 5-7 playoff stats bothered me.
First of all, you don't get to games 5-7 if you aren't scoring in games 1-4.
Since he pulled on a Leafs jersey in 2016-17, the Leafs leading playoff scorer is ... Mitch Marner!!
With Leafs playoff scoring an issue, people want to get rid of their top playoff scorer to solve it? Doesn't make sense to me.

Since 2017, the Leafs scored 28 PP goals in the playoffs. Marner scored or assisted on 17 of them (61%). With a shift in the difference in the playoffs to special teams increasingly deciding the outcome, chucking the best or one of the best special teams guy(s) (he Pk's too) probably shouldn't be at the top of the list.

There's still a bunch to find out about what happened. I read today about how Tavares & Marner were the Pastrnak checking line with two thirds of their starts in the d-zone because Keefe didn't feel he had anyone else up to it (Kampf & Holmberg according to Keefe were not). Add in Matthews & Nylander injuries and the core 4 were neutralized for a hunk of the series.

I think that some of the over-reactions are emotional / irrational.

We have a window - it is half closed. They need to be careful about what they do.
If they could find a reliable, healthy goalie, the playoff roster as otherwise is would be a contender in my opinion. I hope the media rhetoric dies down trying to find a sacrificial Leafs player lamb for their readers/subscribers and cooler, smarter heads prevail.

It would be irrational to give Marner more money. Yes, he?s good regular season player? who cares if he?s awful in the playoffs (including the PK). Don?t care about his regular season stats. I care about $11M roster player disappearing annually when it matters most.

Where are these terrible playoff stats allegations coming from?

Marner is 1st -> the Leafs highest playoff scorer since he arrived in 2016-17.

Marner's playoff ppg is top of his team over that time.
Marner's playoff ppg is tied with Selke winner Ryan O'Rielly (who won the Selke & Cup during this period) = 20th in the NHL over that time (for 40 or more playoff games since 2017)
Marner's playoff ppg is 5th highest in Leafs history (better than Matthews, Gary Roberts, Nylander, Wendel Clark, Ted Kennedy, Syl Apps, Dave Keon, Frank Mahovlich, etc)
His playoff scoring is 12th highest in Leafs history

Marner is 2nd among current/recent Leafs in the playoffs with +10 in +/- since he arrived - no other Leafs forwards are close to him.
Marner is 9th all time in Leafs playoff history with +10.


Marner is the Leafs highest PP scorer in the playoffs since 2016-17. (in on 61% of the playoff powerplay goals)
Marner's powerplay pts/60 in the playoffs is top of his team since 2016/17.

Marner is 13th all time among Leafs in powerplay scoring in the playoffs
Marners PP pts/game is 6th all time among Leafs

I do not know why those stats are a black mark against Marner.
It is absolutely mindboggling and hard to imagine how much better he was supposed to be to make people 'happy'

A narrative about what went on seems to be overlooked:
Tavares & Marner got 2/3rds of their starts in the d-zone to check Pastrnak
Pastrnak scored a PP EN pt when Marner was on the ice at the end of a game.
Pastrnak scored a point when dmen coverage broke down off a faceoff with Tavares & Marner in game 2.
So the only goal in the 7 games of defending Pastrnak that they were accountable was the OT of game 7.
That checking line function requested by Keefe with so many D-zone starts hurt Tavares-Marner scoring.

The media narrative appears to be 'lets run Marner out of town'
What I'm hearing of their claims and the facts don't jive.

 

[cabber24]

Watch the f-ing games! The clown scores points when it matters least! Good god!

 

[cw]

Watch the f-ing games! The clown scores points when it matters least! Good god!

If you don't score in games 1-4, there are no games 5-7.
All the playoff games matter and count.
That is why they go to the trouble of playing them.

 

[L K]

I'm still in the camp that I would have rather had Dubas here as the GM (assuming his end of year presser was truly about him being ready to move on from one of the core 4 and not more grandstanding for the blatant tampering that Pittsburgh did and somehow faced no consequences from)

BUT

Treliving probably gets more flak for the Tkachuk for Huberdeau/Weeger move than really deserved.  I would have loved to have Weeger on the Leafs.  Huberdeau's previous 5 seasons leading up to the trade were 69/82, 92/82, 78/69, 61/55, 115/80.  His 115 point season was an outlier but the previous 3 seasons he averaged 92 points/82 games.

Tkachuck wanted out.  They got a good player back and a solid defenseman.  Obviously Huberdeau hasn't been good in Calgary but I think that's almost as much of a fit problem as anything.  They acquired a pass guy on a team that really lacks shooters. 

 

[Andy007]

I'm still in the camp that I would have rather had Dubas here as the GM (assuming his end of year presser was truly about him being ready to move on from one of the core 4 and not more grandstanding for the blatant tampering that Pittsburgh did and somehow faced no consequences from)

BUT

Treliving probably gets more flak for the Tkachuk for Huberdeau/Weeger move than really deserved.  I would have loved to have Weeger on the Leafs.  Huberdeau's previous 5 seasons leading up to the trade were 69/82, 92/82, 78/69, 61/55, 115/80.  His 115 point season was an outlier but the previous 3 seasons he averaged 92 points/82 games.

Tkachuck wanted out.  They got a good player back and a solid defenseman.  Obviously Huberdeau hasn't been good in Calgary but I think that's almost as much of a fit problem as anything.  They acquired a pass guy on a team that really lacks shooters. 

Didn't they also get a prospect and a 1st rounder in the deal? Based on the circumstances I think that was a pretty phenomenal return

 

[Bullfrog]

Watch the f-ing games! The clown scores points when it matters least! Good god!

With respect, one of your previous posts is you being critical of him scoring a goal.

Another is you saying he likely won't net a good return.

Kind of hard to take your opinion seriously. Marner is clearly one of the best players in the league. He's likely underpaid.

 

[Zee]

I don't like the fact that Pelley AND Shanahan will be at the presser. It sort of indicates that Shanahan isn't fired. Maybe he's finally at a point where he agrees something has to change with the core. Or maybe he's forced to agree with that by Pelley. But after 10 years and only 1 playoff round win, I don't think he should be the guy that gets to see this through anymore. I've heard rumors that the president role itself might be gone. So maybe Shanahan won't have a direct influence on the Leafs anymore. But I don't think he should get off free here.

 

[cw]

Watch the f-ing games! The clown scores points when it matters least! Good god!

Games 3 & 4 against Tampa
https://www.nhl.com/scores/htmlreports/20222023/ES030123.HTM
https://www.nhl.com/scores/htmlreports/20222023/ES030124.HTM
Both won by the Leafs in OT
Marner set up 2 goals in each of those games

If Marner doesn't do that, everything else remaining the same, they lose both games and Tampa wins the series in 5 games. There is no game 6 or 7. And there is no 6 game series with Florida

There would have been no game 5 vs Florida if Marner had not set up and scored the only 2 Leafs goals to win game 4 when facing elimination.

Cherry picking games stats in games 5-7 is Fool's Gold.
All the playoff games matter because there are no games 5-7 unless you score some in games 1-4.

 

[bustaheims]

I don't like the fact that Pelley AND Shanahan will be at the presser. It sort of indicates that Shanahan isn't fired. Maybe he's finally at a point where he agrees something has to change with the core. Or maybe he's forced to agree with that by Pelley. But after 10 years and only 1 playoff round win, I don't think he should be the guy that gets to see this through anymore. I've heard rumors that the president role itself might be gone. So maybe Shanahan won't have a direct influence on the Leafs anymore. But I don't think he should get off free here.

I wouldn't read anything into who is and who isn't at these pressers. Pelley's only been on the job a few weeks - only officially started April 2. He's almost certainly still putting the final touches on his plans before executing them.

 

[Bender]

I don't like the fact that Pelley AND Shanahan will be at the presser. It sort of indicates that Shanahan isn't fired. Maybe he's finally at a point where he agrees something has to change with the core. Or maybe he's forced to agree with that by Pelley. But after 10 years and only 1 playoff round win, I don't think he should be the guy that gets to see this through anymore. I've heard rumors that the president role itself might be gone. So maybe Shanahan won't have a direct influence on the Leafs anymore. But I don't think he should get off free here.

I wouldn't read anything into who is and who isn't at these pressers. Pelley's only been on the job a few weeks - only officially started April 2. He's almost certainly still putting the final touches on his plans before executing them.

I'm wondering if Shanahan somehow becomes part of the board or moves in some other type of capacity.

 

[dappleganger]

20 seconds after Nylander scores in game 7, Marner sets up this play. If it goes in the entire narrative around Mitch changes. Unfortunately Edmundson can't bury it in alone.

https://twitter.com/rareguitars/status/1788202102038110241

 

[Bender]

Watch the f-ing games! The clown scores points when it matters least! Good god!

Games 3 & 4 against Tampa
https://www.nhl.com/scores/htmlreports/20222023/ES030123.HTM
https://www.nhl.com/scores/htmlreports/20222023/ES030124.HTM
Both won by the Leafs in OT
Marner set up 2 goals in each of those games

If Marner doesn't do that, everything else remaining the same, they lose both games and Tampa wins the series in 5 games. There is no game 6 or 7. And there is no 6 game series with Florida

There would have been no game 5 vs Florida if Marner had not set up and scored the only 2 Leafs goals to win game 4 when facing elimination.

Cherry picking games stats in games 5-7 is Fool's Gold.
All the playoff games matter because there are no games 5-7 unless you score some in games 1-4.

The fact remains. Do you attempt to trade him or do you attempt to resign him? Tavares comes off the books but I don't think Marner deserves to be paid in the realm of Auston Matthews, which is what he is asking for. There's a world in which Marner just walks away from the team without return anyway. You say it's crazy to trade him but he might just go on his own, and then what?

 

[Bill_Berg]

Watch the f-ing games! The clown scores points when it matters least! Good god!

Games 3 & 4 against Tampa
https://www.nhl.com/scores/htmlreports/20222023/ES030123.HTM
https://www.nhl.com/scores/htmlreports/20222023/ES030124.HTM
Both won by the Leafs in OT
Marner set up 2 goals in each of those games

If Marner doesn't do that, everything else remaining the same, they lose both games and Tampa wins the series in 5 games. There is no game 6 or 7. And there is no 6 game series with Florida

There would have been no game 5 vs Florida if Marner had not set up and scored the only 2 Leafs goals to win game 4 when facing elimination.

Cherry picking games stats in games 5-7 is Fool's Gold.
All the playoff games matter because there are no games 5-7 unless you score some in games 1-4.

The fact remains. Do you attempt to trade him or do you attempt to resign him? Tavares comes off the books but I don't think Marner deserves to be paid in the realm of Auston Matthews, which is what he is asking for. There's a world in which Marner just walks away from the team without return anyway. You say it's crazy to trade him but he might just go on his own, and then what?

Can't trade him for pennies on the dollar, or if he just says no.

 

[bustaheims]

The fact remains. Do you attempt to trade him or do you attempt to resign him? Tavares comes off the books but I don't think Marner deserves to be paid in the realm of Auston Matthews, which is what he is asking for. There's a world in which Marner just walks away from the team without return anyway. You say it's crazy to trade him but he might just go on his own, and then what?

That definitely has to be a big factor in the decision. If they aren't close on an extension this summer and it doesn't feel like they'll be able to bridge that gap, you have to look at moving him. He's too valuable a piece to just let him walk for nothing.

It also sort of feels like part of him wants out. I think the pressure and the outside noise have been getting to him. He's still producing, but I get the impression he's not as happy to be here as he once was.

 

[cw]

https://twitter.com/LeafsNews/status/1787864153715077314

?The challenge here in Toronto is not coming up with the plan. The challenge in Toronto is sticking to it.?
Those were Brendan Shanahan?s famous words when he was hired as Leafs President and set out to rebuild the ailing, storied franchise. For an organization that had been stuck in the mud for a decade at the time, it was critical that they actually put a plan in place and stuck to it to climb out of the basement and ascend the standings.

They have mostly done that, making the playoffs for eight straight years. But when you make the playoffs eight straight years and all you have to show for it is one playoff series win, it isn?t about sticking to a long-term plan anymore; it?s about being honest about where the organization stands in the here and now.

I'd probably amend that:
?The challenge here in Toronto is not coming up with the plan. The challenge in Toronto is sticking to it.?

There is probably not that much wrong with his plan.
The problem is executing it.
Not everything goes to according to plan.

We saw that last summer.
They knew they needed a dman. They couldn't get a good UFA dman. Took a chance on Klingberg.
They never got a crease clearer for the PK until the deadline.

It was apparent last summer that they were not as good a team as in 2022-23.
They never played like a top 6 contender. So they got bounced in the 1st round like most thought they probably would. I do not entirely get the frenetic handwringing or "looking for blood" at this point for the playoff result because the writing has been on the wall for a long time. Where they are today should not come as a shock. They've been on that trajectory for some time.

We saw in prior seasons when Dubas mortgaged a lot of the draft future for playoff shots that failed to win a round. The core 4 would be more affordable in this cap world if they had a better flow of economical talent like Knies coming on to the roster. So they probably didn't stick to the Shanaplan. But ownership was breathing down their necks for playoff round wins so mortgages of their future got underway.

Part of their job is to protect the organization. Part of that protection involves protecting their assets. Marner is an asset. Letting him get run in the media lowers his trade value and compromises their negotiating position should they want to move him. He's a top player and they have a good story to tell about him. They need to close ranks and shut some of the nonsense down.

Pelley is wise to have Shanahan around for a while. He's a good hockey man and seen a lot. Pelley has been on the job for a month. In order to chart where the team is going, you need to understand where the team has been. There is no need for any panic moves. That is a luxury of being knocked out early.

There is an obvious fork in the road:
- core 5 bolstered by UFAs
or
- trying to move a core 5 player to give them more cap space to bolster what is left
Both paths have to be looked at.

Them hunkering down to figure that out is probably the best we can hope for right now.

 

[Bill_Berg]

https://twitter.com/LeafsNews/status/1787864153715077314

?The challenge here in Toronto is not coming up with the plan. The challenge in Toronto is sticking to it.?
Those were Brendan Shanahan?s famous words when he was hired as Leafs President and set out to rebuild the ailing, storied franchise. For an organization that had been stuck in the mud for a decade at the time, it was critical that they actually put a plan in place and stuck to it to climb out of the basement and ascend the standings.

They have mostly done that, making the playoffs for eight straight years. But when you make the playoffs eight straight years and all you have to show for it is one playoff series win, it isn?t about sticking to a long-term plan anymore; it?s about being honest about where the organization stands in the here and now.

I'd probably amend that:
?The challenge here in Toronto is not coming up with the plan. The challenge in Toronto is sticking to it.?

There is probably not that much wrong with his plan.
The problem is executing it.
Not everything goes to according to plan.

We saw that last summer.
They knew they needed a dman. They couldn't get a good UFA dman. Took a chance on Klingberg.
They never got a crease clearer for the PK until the deadline.

It was apparent last summer that they were not as good a team as in 2022-23.
They never played like a top 6 contender. So they got bounced in the 1st round like most thought they probably would. I do not entirely get the frenetic handwringing or "looking for blood" at this point for the playoff result because the writing has been on the wall for a long time. Where they are today should not come as a shock. They've been on that trajectory for some time.

We saw in prior seasons when Dubas mortgaged a lot of the draft future for playoff shots that failed to win a round. The core 4 would be more affordable in this cap world if they had a better flow of economical talent like Knies coming on to the roster. So they probably didn't stick to the Shanaplan. But ownership was breathing down their necks for playoff round wins so mortgages of their future got underway.

Part of their job is to protect the organization. Part of that protection involves protecting their assets. Marner is an asset. Letting him get run in the media lowers his trade value and compromises their negotiating position should they want to move him. He's a top player and they have a good story to tell about him. They need to close ranks and shut some of the nonsense down.

Pelley is wise to have Shanahan around for a while. He's a good hockey man and seen a lot. Pelley has been on the job for a month. In order to chart where the team is going, you need to understand where the team has been. There is no need for any panic moves. That is a luxury of being knocked out early.

There is an obvious fork in the road:
- core 5 bolstered by UFAs
or
- trying to move a core 5 player to give them more cap space to bolster what is left
Both paths have to be looked at.

Them hunkering down to figure that out is probably the best we can hope for right now.

The only problem is the obvious choice of the 5 to go, can't go until 2025. So do they 'burn' another year by trying to tinker again with UFAs, or has the patience run out? And if patience has run out, will it lead to a bad decision (trade Marner for nothing).