Armchair GM 2018-2019

[Frank E]

I think I ask this every year, but what they've normally done is push Horton's cap hit into LTIR on day - 1 of the season, correct?

But this affects the others' bonus $$ not being able to be kept in the 18-19 cap?  (this is more of a question)

Correct.  Don't forget, they also had Lupul's contract to LTIR the last few seasons.  So, it made no sense to have 10M+ in dead cap space just to avoid bonus overages going into the following season.  So they just LTIR'd both.

Once they are in LTIR, any bonuses the guys on rookie contracts get, has to be carried over.  If there is nobody on LTIR, then whatever cap space they have left at the end of the season can be used to cover the bonuses.  If there is any left, it still carries over. 

However, in 2019-2020 they cannot afford bonus overages with Matthews, Marner, and Nylander on their next contracts without subtracting a good player. 

So this season, their best bet is to avoid LTIR altogether and eat the bonuses under this years cap sheet- which means staying 3.7M below the cap.  And having Horton still eat 5.3M of cap space as well (ie, not on LTIR).

Good, so I kind of understood it.  So this season is more unique in that Horton's hit will not be LTIR'd, and Lupul's deal has expired.

So, it would be super convenient if they could shed the Horton contract, given the sudden cap crunch around here.

On a cap hit of $5.3m, he's owed $4.5m this season, and $3.6m the next, according to Capfriendly.

 

[Coco-puffs]

I know it's extremely shady, but could the Leafs still trade Horton to a team that wants to get to the cap floor and not use LTIR?  Basically have Horton on your payroll to reach the floor.

Its not shady at all.  They are free to do it.  The problem is, Horton's contract is not insured.  Typically an injured player salary is covered by insurance, meaning the team taking on the contract doesn't actually have to pay most of the salary.  Since Horton does not have insurance, the acquiring team will be paying his full salary.

Luckily, his contract was backloaded.  He's only owed 4.5M this year and 3.6M next year.  We would have to sweeten the deal, but I can see us trading his contract at the deadline this year or next offseason when the total money owed is less than 5M.  Probably have to give up a draft pick to do so, but that 5.3M in cap hit NEEDS to disappear next season- and if the right rental is available at the deadline this year- maybe at the deadline too.

 

[WhatIfGodWasALeaf]

I think I ask this every year, but what they've normally done is push Horton's cap hit into LTIR on day - 1 of the season, correct?

But this affects the others' bonus $$ not being able to be kept in the 18-19 cap?  (this is more of a question)

If you use LTIR it?s because you?re at the cap limit and need extra space, at that point any bonuses accrued are pushed to the following year because you?re capped out.

By keeping enough space to have Horton on the normal cap and room for whatever bonuses Matthews and Marner earn this season means that nothing in terms of bonuses would be carried into next season when things are a little tighter.

I think there has been a lot of unnecessary hand wringing about the salary cap from people who are either too lazy, dumb or unprofessional to look at things closely, the frustrating part is it?s usually those people with the loudest voices when predicting doom and gloom.

The Athletic had a piece yesterday that predicted 12 forwards, 6 d and approximately 10 million in cap space or if they wanted to go all in for one year 15.5 million in cap space with Horton on LTIR.

If the Leafs don?t make a significant addition to go all out this year they could leave Horton off LTIR and have about 4.5 million in cap that would account for whatever bonuses Marner and Matthews hit this year, giving them more of a blank slate next year when they are squeezed.

Personally I?d explore acquiring a legit young RD prospect by eating a bad contract.

Next season you can potentially shed Marleau (LTIR or trade, will he want to play for approx a million in actual salary?), Gardiner, Horton, Hainsey, Brown. That?s another $20 million in cap space right there.

 

[Coco-puffs]

I think I ask this every year, but what they've normally done is push Horton's cap hit into LTIR on day - 1 of the season, correct?

But this affects the others' bonus $$ not being able to be kept in the 18-19 cap?  (this is more of a question)

If you use LTIR it?s because you?re at the cap limit and need extra space, at that point any bonuses accrued are pushed to the following year because you?re capped out.

By keeping enough space to have Horton on the normal cap and room for whatever bonuses Matthews and Marner earn this season means that nothing in terms of bonuses would be carried into next season when things are a little tighter.

I think there has been a lot of unnecessary hand wringing about the salary cap from people who are either too lazy, dumb or unprofessional to look at things closely, the frustrating part is it?s usually those people with the loudest voices when predicting doom and gloom.

The Athletic had a piece yesterday that predicted 12 forwards, 6 d and approximately 10 million in cap space or if they wanted to go all in for one year 15.5 million in cap space with Horton on LTIR.

If the Leafs don?t make a significant addition to go all out this year they could leave Horton off LTIR and have about 4.5 million in cap that would account for whatever bonuses Marner and Matthews hit this year, giving them more of a blank slate next year when they are squeezed.

Personally I?d explore acquiring a legit young RD prospect by eating a bad contract.

Next season you can potentially shed Marleau (LTIR or trade, will he want to play for approx a million in actual salary?), Gardiner, Horton, Hainsey, Brown. That?s another $20 million in cap space right there.

Please see some earlier posts.  We can't afford to eat a bad contract right now, not without moving something significant out.  Once we sign Nylander and Johnsson to their contracts and fill out our roster (Lindholm, Jooris, Holl, Borgman etc) we will probably have about 4.5M left over.  We need to keep 3.7M in space to absorb the potential bonuses that Matthews and Marner can earn.  So we only have about 1M in space- not enough to eat a bad contract.

 

[CarltonTheBear]

The Athletic had a piece yesterday that predicted 12 forwards, 6 d and approximately 10 million in cap space or if they wanted to go all in for one year 15.5 million in cap space with Horton on LTIR.

Link? Because as Coco said I don't see the situation like that.

 

[Coco-puffs]

Does this work for you guys?

https://www.capfriendly.com/armchair-gm/team/781507

I signed Nylander for 6.75M x 8 and Johnsson for 1.25M x 2 and added Lindholm, Moore, Borgman, and Ozhiganov to the roster to get to 23 men (Horton on IR, not LTIR).  I'm at 4.48M in cap space.  We need 3.7M available for potential bonuses to Matthews and Marner.

 

[Coco-puffs]

Does this work for you guys?

https://www.capfriendly.com/armchair-gm/team/781507

I signed Nylander for 6.75M x 8 and Johnsson for 1.25M x 2 and added Lindholm, Moore, Borgman, and Ozhiganov to the roster to get to 23 men (Horton on IR, not LTIR).  I'm at 4.48M in cap space.  We need 3.7M available for potential bonuses to Matthews and Marner.

You can save 300k here and there by swapping Jooris and Holl for Moore and Borgman, but we are still talking about only having around 1M in cap space- which we might need if anyone gets injured and you need to call up a replacement.

 

[bustaheims]

Next season you can potentially shed Marleau (LTIR or trade, will he want to play for approx a million in actual salary?)

I wouldn't be banking on this. If Marleau thinks he has a shot at winning the Cup, he'll play. He also has full NMC, so, he's not going anywhere if he doesn't want to - and, quite frankly, unless he tails off big time this season, I don't expect the Leafs to be looking to rid themselves of him, either.

 

[CarltonTheBear]

You can save 300k here and there by swapping Jooris and Holl for Moore and Borgman, but we are still talking about only having around 1M in cap space- which we might need if anyone gets injured and you need to call up a replacement.

Could save $200k too by swapping McBackup with Sparks.

 

[Frank E]

Does this work for you guys?

https://www.capfriendly.com/armchair-gm/team/781507

I signed Nylander for 6.75M x 8 and Johnsson for 1.25M x 2 and added Lindholm, Moore, Borgman, and Ozhiganov to the roster to get to 23 men (Horton on IR, not LTIR).  I'm at 4.48M in cap space.  We need 3.7M available for potential bonuses to Matthews and Marner.

Question:  What about the performance bonuses for Lindholm and Moore?

 

[CarltonTheBear]

Next season you can potentially shed Marleau (LTIR or trade, will he want to play for approx a million in actual salary?)

I wouldn't be banking on this. If Marleau thinks he has a shot at winning the Cup, he'll play. He also has full NMC, so, he's not going anywhere if he doesn't want to - and, quite frankly, unless he tails off big time this season, I don't expect the Leafs to be looking to rid themselves of him, either.

I was in the group of people who felt his 3rd year was essentially a sham year and he definitely wouldn't play it out, but with this forward group now if he feels like he wants another shot at the Cup I think he'll go for it there.

On the other hand if we win the Cup this season I could see him retiring on top.

 

[Coco-puffs]

Next season you can potentially shed Marleau (LTIR or trade, will he want to play for approx a million in actual salary?)

I wouldn't be banking on this. If Marleau thinks he has a shot at winning the Cup, he'll play. He also has full NMC, so, he's not going anywhere if he doesn't want to - and, quite frankly, unless he tails off big time this season, I don't expect the Leafs to be looking to rid themselves of him, either.

Unless we win the cup this year.  Then maybe Marleau goes out on top, considering he's only got a small bit of money coming next year.  Since its a 35+ contract though, Leafs would have to trade him (which, he would waive to do so) to a team willing to absorb the cap hit without actually paying him anything..

 

[Coco-puffs]

You can save 300k here and there by swapping Jooris and Holl for Moore and Borgman, but we are still talking about only having around 1M in cap space- which we might need if anyone gets injured and you need to call up a replacement.

Could save $200k too by swapping McBackup with Sparks.

Ah, yes.  And I expect that swap to happen.  Going to change it in the armchair gm team I posted.

 

[Coco-puffs]

Does this work for you guys?

https://www.capfriendly.com/armchair-gm/team/781507

I signed Nylander for 6.75M x 8 and Johnsson for 1.25M x 2 and added Lindholm, Moore, Borgman, and Ozhiganov to the roster to get to 23 men (Horton on IR, not LTIR).  I'm at 4.48M in cap space.  We need 3.7M available for potential bonuses to Matthews and Marner.

Question:  What about the performance bonuses for Lindholm and Moore?

Yes, they both have the potential to hit up to 850k in bonuses each (in 212.5k chunks).  Typically you need like 20 goal seasons and such to hit them.  Its a possibility, but I don't think we need to worry about that at this moment yet.

 

[bustaheims]

Unless we win the cup this year.  Then maybe Marleau goes out on top, considering he's only got a small bit of money coming next year.  Since its a 35+ contract though, Leafs would have to trade him (which, he would waive to do so) to a team willing to absorb the cap hit without actually paying him anything..

LTIR would work, too, but, also not something you can bank on. While the Leafs did send players to "Robidas Island," those were all guys who had a history of significant injuries.

 

[Frank E]

Does this work for you guys?

https://www.capfriendly.com/armchair-gm/team/781507

I signed Nylander for 6.75M x 8 and Johnsson for 1.25M x 2 and added Lindholm, Moore, Borgman, and Ozhiganov to the roster to get to 23 men (Horton on IR, not LTIR).  I'm at 4.48M in cap space.  We need 3.7M available for potential bonuses to Matthews and Marner.

Question:  What about the performance bonuses for Lindholm and Moore?

Yes, they both have the potential to hit up to 850k in bonuses each (in 212.5k chunks).  Typically you need like 20 goal seasons and such to hit them.  Its a possibility, but I don't think we need to worry about that at this moment yet.

Thank you.

 

[Zee]

Next season you can potentially shed Marleau (LTIR or trade, will he want to play for approx a million in actual salary?)

I wouldn't be banking on this. If Marleau thinks he has a shot at winning the Cup, he'll play. He also has full NMC, so, he's not going anywhere if he doesn't want to - and, quite frankly, unless he tails off big time this season, I don't expect the Leafs to be looking to rid themselves of him, either.

Unless we win the cup this year.  Then maybe Marleau goes out on top, considering he's only got a small bit of money coming next year.  Since its a 35+ contract though, Leafs would have to trade him (which, he would waive to do so) to a team willing to absorb the cap hit without actually paying him anything..

Best case, Leafs win Cup, Marleau agrees to go back to San Jose to retire a Shark?

 

[Frank E]

Next season you can potentially shed Marleau (LTIR or trade, will he want to play for approx a million in actual salary?)

I wouldn't be banking on this. If Marleau thinks he has a shot at winning the Cup, he'll play. He also has full NMC, so, he's not going anywhere if he doesn't want to - and, quite frankly, unless he tails off big time this season, I don't expect the Leafs to be looking to rid themselves of him, either.

Unless we win the cup this year.  Then maybe Marleau goes out on top, considering he's only got a small bit of money coming next year.  Since its a 35+ contract though, Leafs would have to trade him (which, he would waive to do so) to a team willing to absorb the cap hit without actually paying him anything..

Best case, Leafs win Cup, Marleau agrees to go back to San Jose to retire a Shark?

We can say that, except that he's a pretty productive player.

Even if he doesn't score 27 this season, which he could very well, he's not easy to replace.  Defensively responsible, great shot, skates really well...

 

[Zee]

Next season you can potentially shed Marleau (LTIR or trade, will he want to play for approx a million in actual salary?)

I wouldn't be banking on this. If Marleau thinks he has a shot at winning the Cup, he'll play. He also has full NMC, so, he's not going anywhere if he doesn't want to - and, quite frankly, unless he tails off big time this season, I don't expect the Leafs to be looking to rid themselves of him, either.

Unless we win the cup this year.  Then maybe Marleau goes out on top, considering he's only got a small bit of money coming next year.  Since its a 35+ contract though, Leafs would have to trade him (which, he would waive to do so) to a team willing to absorb the cap hit without actually paying him anything..

Best case, Leafs win Cup, Marleau agrees to go back to San Jose to retire a Shark?

We can say that, except that he's a pretty productive player.

Even if he doesn't score 27 this season, which he could very well, he's not easy to replace.  Defensively responsible, great shot, skates really well...

He's going to have to be replaced at some point.  He's turning 40 before the 3rd year of his deal, is he playing to Jagr age?

 

[Kin]

Does this work for you guys?

https://www.capfriendly.com/armchair-gm/team/781507

I signed Nylander for 6.75M x 8 and Johnsson for 1.25M x 2 and added Lindholm, Moore, Borgman, and Ozhiganov to the roster to get to 23 men (Horton on IR, not LTIR).  I'm at 4.48M in cap space.  We need 3.7M available for potential bonuses to Matthews and Marner.

So help me out here. I know the thinking is that we need a certain amount of cap space for potential bonuses because the last thing we want is for to get hit for an overage in the year where the big extensions kick in.

But, worst case scenario, isn't it a little bit manageable to deal with that overage if you make one or two fairly reasonable cost saving measures? Wasn't the whole point of drafting so heavily on the wing these last few years that someone like Bracco or Grundstrom or Korshkov could step in for Hyman or Brown relatively soon? So if you have to trade a guy or two, I don't think the Leafs couldn't deal with the overage in 19-20 and then the year after that Marleau and Hainsey are off the books and there's a bit more breathing room.