Armchair GM 2018-2019

[mr grieves]

For what it's worth I've never seen re-signing Gardiner as a particularly viable option.

I can get us there if we go with lots of youth and only carry a 21 man roster (and Gardiner signs a team friendly deal).  And we have no bonus overages!

https://www.capfriendly.com/armchair-gm/team/781759

So perhaps this is why Dubas may have been in hot and heavy on de Haan...they've already decided that Gardiner is out.

Yes, if his target price for de Haan was say $4 million (or under) then that gives you some extra breathing room to fill out your roster.  Trade Brown and Hyman out and replace with guys on ELC and you might be able to afford another $4M d-man as well.

Except if the idea was to replace Gardiner, then Dubas still should've been in on de Haan at $4.5mx4. That's probably a savings of at least $2m/year on what Gardiner will get nd less term -- still plenty of breathing room. So I have doubts the proposed moves are that closely connected.

 

[Phileas Fogg]

The more I think about the center ice position, and the gaps on defence, the more I think you have to consider moving Kadri.

He's just too valuable to play 3rd pairing minutes, and he'd fetch a ton in return.

 

[Kin]

The more I think about the center ice position, and the gaps on defence, the more I think you have to consider moving Kadri.

He's just too valuable to play 3rd pairing minutes, and he'd fetch a ton in return.

Eventually, sure. But not until they have some decent internal options to replace him.

 

[Phileas Fogg]

The more I think about the center ice position, and the gaps on defence, the more I think you have to consider moving Kadri.

He's just too valuable to play 3rd pairing minutes, and he'd fetch a ton in return.

Eventually, sure. But not until they have some decent internal options to replace him.

Well, Nylander is there.. and if Kadri's production goes down by nature of limited TOI, won't that hurt his value?

 

[Kin]

The more I think about the center ice position, and the gaps on defence, the more I think you have to consider moving Kadri.

He's just too valuable to play 3rd pairing minutes, and he'd fetch a ton in return.

Eventually, sure. But not until they have some decent internal options to replace him.

Well, Nylander is there.. and if Kadri's production goes down by nature of limited TOI, won't that hurt his value?

It makes way less sense to pay Nylander 7 million to be a 3rd line C than it does to pay Kadri 4.5 to do it.

Kadri's deal is such good value that I really question if it's possible to spend the money any better.

 

[Frank E]

Except if the idea was to replace Gardiner, then Dubas still should've been in on de Haan at $4.5mx4. That's probably a savings of at least $2m/year on what Gardiner will get nd less term -- still plenty of breathing room. So I have doubts the proposed moves are that closely connected.

Not necessarily, maybe he did offer that and de Haan decided on Carolina...or he valued de Haan at $4m, or less, and will consider other options now.

 

[Frank E]

Riskier?  I'd say so.  Likely inevitable though.  Best hope that Grundstrom and Korshkov can kill

Yeah it feels riskier to be so afraid of change that you don't create opportunities for guys you've drafted in the 2nd round to crack the lineup until they're 24.

Let's allow Grundstrom to finish his cup of coffee on the smaller ice surface before we start penciling him into a Stanley Cup contending lineup. I don't think anyone is "afraid of change", I think it's more "which player is more likely to make us better".

I'm comfortable with my opinion that Grundstrom would be riskier than having Brown or Hyman there.

 

[WhatIfGodWasALeaf]

The Athletic had a piece yesterday that predicted 12 forwards, 6 d and approximately 10 million in cap space or if they wanted to go all in for one year 15.5 million in cap space with Horton on LTIR.

Link? Because as Coco said I don't see the situation like that.

Updated 2018-19 Maple Leafs depth chart: Now with more Tavares https://theathletic.com/418287/2018/07/02/updated-2018-19-maple-leafs-depth-chart-now-with-more-tavares/

 

[mr grieves]

Updated 2018-19 Maple Leafs depth chart: Now with more Tavares https://theathletic.com/418287/2018/07/02/updated-2018-19-maple-leafs-depth-chart-now-with-more-tavares/

No paywall and lots of player info on this one:
https://www.rosterresource.com/nhl-toronto-maple-leafs/

Lookit all those high picks!

 

[Kin]

Let's allow Grundstrom to finish his cup of coffee on the smaller ice surface before we start penciling him into a Stanley Cup contending lineup. I don't think anyone is "afraid of change", I think it's more "which player is more likely to make us better".

I'm not sure why you're hung up on Grundstrom particularly but this is for a year out where he'll have been around for a while. That said, it's not really about him. If none of the roughly four thousand guys the Leafs have drafted on the wing are capable of giving them decent 4th line minutes a year out it'd be pretty disappointing but even then the thing you do is go out and get that year's version of Dominic Moore.

It's the 4th line. Who's on it isn't exactly a big deal.

 

[herman]

I was a bit befuddled by Hyman with Tavares on the initial lineup Babcock mentioned, but it sounds like he is building lines by playstyle:

Rush attack: Marleau-Matthews-Nylander
Cycle/Heavy possession: Hyman-Tavares-Marner
Opportunistic net crash/Shutdown: Johnsson-Kadri-Brown/Kapanen
Specialists: Leivo-Lindholm-Kapanen/Brown

 

[CarltonTheBear]

https://twitter.com/JudeLeafs/status/1014831575618420736

The year is 2021. Zaitsev's just posted his 5th straight NHL season with below average results.

"Yeah, but his kid is just starting grade school finally so he'll improve now!"

 

[herman]

https://twitter.com/JudeLeafs/status/1014831575618420736

He had a concussion at the end of last season (bye conditioning), broken foot mid-season (bye conditioning), and mega flu in the latter third (bye strength and conditioning).

 

[Coco-puffs]

https://twitter.com/JudeLeafs/status/1014831575618420736

He had a concussion at the end of last season (bye conditioning), broken foot mid-season (bye conditioning), and mega flu in the latter third (bye strength and conditioning).

Yeah, his results weren't good last season and I get the concern with his contract (way too much term, a little bit too much AAV).  But 2nd pair defenders generally make in the 4M-5M range.  I do think he's fine as a #4 defender, but his cost is closer to a #3 which is unfortunate.

In his first season in the NHL he was on the TOP pair with heavy D-zone usage and didn't have that poor of results except for luck (49.26% CF, 48.96% xGF%, 44.53% GF%, 98.88 PDO)

He was behind the 8-ball all year with injuries/conditioning as herman pointed out, and other than his CF% being worse (47.49) his xGF% and GF% were better (49.98/52.58 respectively).  PDO went the total opposite way (102.38), so yeah some regression can be expected there. 

I DO expect a bounce back year from him.  Especially if Babcock stops asking his RD to pump it out off the glass or stretch the pass for a tip-dump in.

 

[Andy007]

https://twitter.com/JudeLeafs/status/1014831575618420736

He had a concussion at the end of last season (bye conditioning), broken foot mid-season (bye conditioning), and mega flu in the latter third (bye strength and conditioning).

Yeah, his results weren't good last season and I get the concern with his contract (way too much term, a little bit too much AAV).  But 2nd pair defenders generally make in the 4M-5M range.  I do think he's fine as a #4 defender, but his cost is closer to a #3 which is unfortunate.

In his first season in the NHL he was on the TOP pair with heavy D-zone usage and didn't have that poor of results except for luck (49.26% CF, 48.96% xGF%, 44.53% GF%, 98.88 PDO)

He was behind the 8-ball all year with injuries/conditioning as herman pointed out, and other than his CF% being worse (47.49) his xGF% and GF% were better (49.98/52.58 respectively).  PDO went the total opposite way (102.38), so yeah some regression can be expected there. 

I DO expect a bounce back year from him.  Especially if Babcock stops asking his RD to pump it out off the glass or stretch the pass for a tip-dump in.

Yea, I think that the extent to which that weird "forwards at the blue line for non-stop stretch passes" breakout tactic negatively affected a lot of the defensemen last year has been woefully underrated. The Reilly-Zaitsev (pre-concussion) and Gardiner-Carrick pairings from the preceding year (when that breakout tactic was rarely, if ever, used) looked a lot better, imo.

Honestly, apart from the somewhat beguiling performances that have a tendency to befall Andersen at certain, if not crucial, times, I'm more concerned about Babcock being this team's Achilles heel. I'm still haunted by the possibilities that by the end of next year, Zach Hyman is going to be leading this team in ice time, Johnsson and/or Kapanen will still be 4th liners/healthy scratches and the forwards will be standing still at the opposing blue line waiting for a dump and chase.

 

[herman]

Honestly, apart from the somewhat beguiling performances that have a tendency to befall Andersen at certain, if not crucial, times, I'm more concerned about Babcock being this team's Achilles heel. I'm still haunted by the possibilities that by the end of next year, Zach Hyman is going to be leading this team in ice time, Johnsson and/or Kapanen will still be 4th liners/healthy scratches and the forwards will be standing still at the opposing blue line waiting for a dump and chase.

Hyman leading in ice time would basically mean the Leafs jumped to leads early and often.

 

[CarltonTheBear]

Mirtle mentioned in an article yesterday that the Leafs were looking into Patrick Maroon.

Similar to de Haan, not sure where he'd fit into the roster composition unless you want Johnsson playing 4th line minutes.

 

[Coco-puffs]

Mirtle mentioned in an article yesterday that the Leafs were looking into Patrick Maroon.

Similar to de Haan, not sure where he'd fit into the roster composition unless you want Johnsson playing 4th line minutes.

At least De Haan made sense in that you were probably going to lose Gardiner soon, so acquring his replacement makes it easy to get some assets for him or have a much stronger blueline for one year to go for it.

Maroon doesn't make the same kinda sense.  Unless they are going to package one of those LW's (probably not Marleau) to address the defense.

 

[herman]

Mirtle mentioned in an article yesterday that the Leafs were looking into Patrick Maroon.

Similar to de Haan, not sure where he'd fit into the roster composition unless you want Johnsson playing 4th line minutes.

At least De Haan made sense in that you were probably going to lose Gardiner soon, so acquring his replacement makes it easy to get some assets for him or have a much stronger blueline for one year to go for it.

Maroon doesn't make the same kinda sense.  Unless they are going to package one of those LW's (probably not Marleau) to address the defense.

Maybe they wouldn't mind this:
Marleau - Matthews - Nylander
Maroon - Tavares - Marner
Johnsson - Kadri - Hyman
Kapanen - Lindholm - Brown

 

[Coco-puffs]

Mirtle mentioned in an article yesterday that the Leafs were looking into Patrick Maroon.

Similar to de Haan, not sure where he'd fit into the roster composition unless you want Johnsson playing 4th line minutes.

At least De Haan made sense in that you were probably going to lose Gardiner soon, so acquring his replacement makes it easy to get some assets for him or have a much stronger blueline for one year to go for it.

Maroon doesn't make the same kinda sense.  Unless they are going to package one of those LW's (probably not Marleau) to address the defense.

Maybe they wouldn't mind this:
Marleau - Matthews - Nylander
Maroon - Tavares - Marner
Johnsson - Kadri - Hyman
Kapanen - Lindholm - Brown

Swap Hyman and Kapanen and I'm happy.