Armchair GM 2018-2019

[Coco-puffs]

Best case, Leafs win Cup, Marleau agrees to go back to San Jose to retire a Shark?

We can say that, except that he's a pretty productive player.

Even if he doesn't score 27 this season, which he could very well, he's not easy to replace.  Defensively responsible, great shot, skates really well...

He's going to have to be replaced at some point.  He's turning 40 before the 3rd year of his deal, is he playing to Jagr age?

I'm willing to bet we'll have an internal option ready to replace him by the time he's through this contract.  Grundstrom being the likely candidate at this point.

 

[princedpw]

,
I fear I?ve made a mistake (the bonus overages from last year?) because other people don?t seem to put us this close to the edge.  If we are here, I don?t see how we could add Faulk or anyone at all without trading out a larger salary... help?

Capfriendly's $63.3mil figure includes the $2.55mil overage from last season, so you've counted that twice.

... that is what I was afraid of ...

 

[Frank E]

Does this work for you guys?

https://www.capfriendly.com/armchair-gm/team/781507

I signed Nylander for 6.75M x 8 and Johnsson for 1.25M x 2 and added Lindholm, Moore, Borgman, and Ozhiganov to the roster to get to 23 men (Horton on IR, not LTIR).  I'm at 4.48M in cap space.  We need 3.7M available for potential bonuses to Matthews and Marner.

So help me out here. I know the thinking is that we need a certain amount of cap space for potential bonuses because the last thing we want is for to get hit for an overage in the year where the big extensions kick in.

But, worst case scenario, isn't it a little bit manageable to deal with that overage if you make one or two fairly reasonable cost saving measures? Wasn't the whole point of drafting so heavily on the wing these last few years that someone like Bracco or Grundstrom or Korshkov could step in for Hyman or Brown relatively soon? So if you have to trade a guy or two, I don't think the Leafs couldn't deal with the overage in 19-20 and then the year after that Marleau and Hainsey are off the books and there's a bit more breathing room.

Hainsey's done after this year.

 

[Kin]

Hainsey's done after this year.

Even better.

 

[Frank E]

Hainsey's done after this year.

Even better.

Yep, but I think my answer to the post would be that it would be more ideal to have that cap space next season, just in case another need arises, or whatever arises.

The easy answer is that I don't think it's hard to make cap space by trading out good hockey players that make a lot of money.  The down side is that you're replacing a predictably productive player with a bit of an unknown.

 

[Kin]

The easy answer is that I don't think it's hard to make cap space by trading out good hockey players that make a lot of money.  The down side is that you're replacing a predictably productive player with a bit of an unknown.

Sure, but I don't think we can pretend that holding onto the big 4 forwards the Leafs will be building around means that they won't have to make those sorts of decisions. Pittsburgh has had to be pretty unsentimental with their wings over the years and trust they can find guys to play with their superstars on the cheap.

 

[Coco-puffs]

Does this work for you guys?

https://www.capfriendly.com/armchair-gm/team/781507

I signed Nylander for 6.75M x 8 and Johnsson for 1.25M x 2 and added Lindholm, Moore, Borgman, and Ozhiganov to the roster to get to 23 men (Horton on IR, not LTIR).  I'm at 4.48M in cap space.  We need 3.7M available for potential bonuses to Matthews and Marner.

So help me out here. I know the thinking is that we need a certain amount of cap space for potential bonuses because the last thing we want is for to get hit for an overage in the year where the big extensions kick in.

But, worst case scenario, isn't it a little bit manageable to deal with that overage if you make one or two fairly reasonable cost saving measures? Wasn't the whole point of drafting so heavily on the wing these last few years that someone like Bracco or Grundstrom or Korshkov could step in for Hyman or Brown relatively soon? So if you have to trade a guy or two, I don't think the Leafs couldn't deal with the overage in 19-20 and then the year after that Marleau and Hainsey are off the books and there's a bit more breathing room.

You do make a good point here.  I think having some overage carry over isn't the end of the world, but it might mean cutting ties with one of the guys you mentioned. However, I think going into LTIR this season and carrying over almost 4M means cutting alot more ties because for every 2M player you cut out, you still have to pay his replacement 1M. 

19-20 is tight already.  In my armchair gm, if you click on Long Term Outlook:

We're a shade under 56M with 7 forwards, 3 defensemen, and Freddie signed.  Looking at this again, I see no reason to trade Horton's contract, because in 2019-2020 you are more comfortable putting him on LTIR, so subtract the 5.3M.  You're at 50.7M.  So, lets be conservative and say the cap goes to 80.7M so we have a nice round 30M to work with:

Matthews:  11M
Marner:  7M

So now you've got 12M left to sign:

- Kapanen and three other depth forwards.  (budget 4.5-5M?)
- Backup goalie (budget 1M)
- 4 defensemen (with 6.5M???) 

And that's with zero bonus overage carried over.  We may have to cut ties with the Brown/Hyman/Kapanen types just to have a d-core that's as good as we have now.

Yeah, there is a crunch coming. Lets plan to not carry over any bonus money and make it worse.

 

[CarltonTheBear]

So help me out here. I know the thinking is that we need a certain amount of cap space for potential bonuses because the last thing we want is for to get hit for an overage in the year where the big extensions kick in.

But, worst case scenario, isn't it a little bit manageable to deal with that overage if you make one or two fairly reasonable cost saving measures? Wasn't the whole point of drafting so heavily on the wing these last few years that someone like Bracco or Grundstrom or Korshkov could step in for Hyman or Brown relatively soon? So if you have to trade a guy or two, I don't think the Leafs couldn't deal with the overage in 19-20 and then the year after that Marleau and Hainsey are off the books and there's a bit more breathing room.

Dealing with an overage in 19/20 certainly wouldn't be the end of the world there just better be a good reason to do it. Like if we're looking to take a salary dump like Steve Mason I'd want a heck of a lot more back than just Joel Armia.

 

[Frank E]

The easy answer is that I don't think it's hard to make cap space by trading out good hockey players that make a lot of money.  The down side is that you're replacing a predictably productive player with a bit of an unknown.

Sure, but I don't think we can pretend that holding onto the big 4 forwards the Leafs will be building around means that they won't have to make those sorts of decisions. Pittsburgh has had to be pretty unsentimental with their wings over the years and trust they can find guys to play with their superstars on the cheap.

I agree, it's just that originally we were talking about whether or not to worry about carrying over a bonus overage so that next year they wouldn't have to make one of those riskier decisions on the wing ie: Grundstrom in Brown out.

 

[Kin]

I agree, it's just that originally we were talking about whether or not to worry about carrying over a bonus overage so that next year they wouldn't have to make one of those riskier decisions on the wing ie: Grundstrom in Brown out.

Ok, but is that really risky? Or is that just a good move regardless? Because if Brown is the team's 4th line RW shouldn't we be looking to move him anyway?

 

[Coco-puffs]

The easy answer is that I don't think it's hard to make cap space by trading out good hockey players that make a lot of money.  The down side is that you're replacing a predictably productive player with a bit of an unknown.

Sure, but I don't think we can pretend that holding onto the big 4 forwards the Leafs will be building around means that they won't have to make those sorts of decisions. Pittsburgh has had to be pretty unsentimental with their wings over the years and trust they can find guys to play with their superstars on the cheap.

I agree, it's just that originally we were talking about whether or not to worry about carrying over a bonus overage so that next year they wouldn't have to make one of those riskier decisions on the wing ie: Grundstrom in Brown out.

Well, first we were talking about eating into alot more cap space and putting Horton on LTIR- which means most likely having a 3.7M bonus overage.  Now the discussion has shifted to "what about a little bit of overage".

As it stands right now, if we want to keep Gardiner, on say a 6M AAV contract (which would be a discount) beyond this season we are already going to have to part ways with some of our complimentary wingers (Brown/Hyman/Kapanen) and replace them with guys making 1M or less.

Otherwise, we're losing Gardiner and (to a lesser concern) Hainsey and replacing them with our internal options to stay cap compliant in 2019-2020 WITHOUT bonus overages.

 

[mr grieves]

I agree, it's just that originally we were talking about whether or not to worry about carrying over a bonus overage so that next year they wouldn't have to make one of those riskier decisions on the wing ie: Grundstrom in Brown out.

Ok, but is that really risky? Or is that just a good move regardless? Because if Brown is the team's 4th line RW shouldn't we be looking to move him anyway?

Besides, 2019-20 is the last season of Brown's contract. I'd want to trade him before it expires for max return.

 

[Kin]

For what it's worth I've never seen re-signing Gardiner as a particularly viable option.

 

[Frank E]

Ok, but is that really risky? Or is that just a good move regardless? Because if Brown is the team's 4th line RW shouldn't we be looking to move him anyway?

Riskier?  I'd say so.  Likely inevitable though.  Best hope that Grundstrom and Korshkov can kill penalties.

Otherwise, we're losing Gardiner and (to a lesser concern) Hainsey and replacing them with our internal options to stay cap compliant in 2019-2020 WITHOUT bonus overages.

And I guess this is when we say that $2m 4th line wingers is not an option.

Or, you cash a guy like Gardiner in for some prospects that will come in around 20-22 years old and replace Hainsey and Zaitsev, on much cheaper deals.

It's almost like it would have been really handy to have some prospects/picks for JVR and Bozak.

 

[Coco-puffs]

For what it's worth I've never seen re-signing Gardiner as a particularly viable option.

I can get us there if we go with lots of youth and only carry a 21 man roster (and Gardiner signs a team friendly deal).  And we have no bonus overages!

https://www.capfriendly.com/armchair-gm/team/781759

 

[Frank E]

For what it's worth I've never seen re-signing Gardiner as a particularly viable option.

I can get us there if we go with lots of youth and only carry a 21 man roster (and Gardiner signs a team friendly deal).  And we have no bonus overages!

https://www.capfriendly.com/armchair-gm/team/781759

So perhaps this is why Dubas may have been in hot and heavy on de Haan...they've already decided that Gardiner is out.

 

[Coco-puffs]

For what it's worth I've never seen re-signing Gardiner as a particularly viable option.

I can get us there if we go with lots of youth and only carry a 21 man roster (and Gardiner signs a team friendly deal).  And we have no bonus overages!

https://www.capfriendly.com/armchair-gm/team/781759

Also, if you trade someone like Brown for a prospect or pick, then you can replace him with two guys at a lower cost.

 

[Coco-puffs]

For what it's worth I've never seen re-signing Gardiner as a particularly viable option.

I can get us there if we go with lots of youth and only carry a 21 man roster (and Gardiner signs a team friendly deal).  And we have no bonus overages!

https://www.capfriendly.com/armchair-gm/team/781759

So perhaps this is why Dubas may have been in hot and heavy on de Haan...they've already decided that Gardiner is out.

Yes, if his target price for de Haan was say $4 million (or under) then that gives you some extra breathing room to fill out your roster.  Trade Brown and Hyman out and replace with guys on ELC and you might be able to afford another $4M d-man as well.

 

[Bill_Berg]

For what it's worth I've never seen re-signing Gardiner as a particularly viable option.

I'm on this boat. He's on the wrong side and going to cash in. Not the best way to spend money. And like JVR, I'm on the trade him this season boat too. Get a return. I doubt they'll do that though. He'll walk in free agency.

 

[Kin]

Riskier?  I'd say so.  Likely inevitable though.  Best hope that Grundstrom and Korshkov can kill

Yeah it feels riskier to be so afraid of change that you don't create opportunities for guys you've drafted in the 2nd round to crack the lineup until they're 24.