Armchair GM 2018-2019

[Andy007]

My only hesitation would be cap implications.

Ignoring that, I would take Karlsson for Nylander without even batting an eye. Honestly, it's a ridiculous suggestion though. I think people are seriously overvaluing Nylander or seriously undervaluing Karlsson -- he of two Norris trophies. Over the last two seasons, Karlsson has outscored every Maple Leaf except Matthews.

Yea, I mean my first reaction to the proposal was no way, Ottawa would never do that. The cap certainly puts a bit of a wrench into the proposal but I think Toronto would find a way to make Karlsson fit if that's all it would take to acquire him..

 

[CarltonTheBear]

Yea, I mean my first reaction to the proposal was no way, Ottawa would never do that. The cap certainly puts a bit of a wrench into the proposal but I think Toronto would find a way to make Karlsson fit if that's all it would take to acquire him..

Nylander would very likely be the best single piece that Ottawa could get for Karlsson. They should be doing cartwheels if the Leafs made that offer. Toronto would never entertain it though unless Karlsson came with a long-term deal included (and likely only at a favourable rate). Ottawa would never entertain it though because Melnyk is an egomaniac who would rather see the sens burn to the ground than do business with the Leafs.

 

[Andy007]

Yea, I mean my first reaction to the proposal was no way, Ottawa would never do that. The cap certainly puts a bit of a wrench into the proposal but I think Toronto would find a way to make Karlsson fit if that's all it would take to acquire him..

Nylander would very likely be the best single piece that Ottawa could get for Karlsson. They should be doing cartwheels if the Leafs made that offer. Toronto would never entertain it though unless Karlsson came with a long-term deal included (and likely only at a favourable rate). Ottawa would never entertain it though because Melnyk is an egomaniac who would rather see the sens burn to the ground than do business with the Leafs.

Well I just assumed that the deal would be contingent on Karlsson signing a reasonable long-term deal; I certainly wouldn't give up Nylander for only one guaranteed year of Karlsson.

 

[herman]

My only hesitation would be cap implications.

Ignoring that, I would take Karlsson for Nylander without even batting an eye. Honestly, it's a ridiculous suggestion though. I think people are seriously overvaluing Nylander or seriously undervaluing Karlsson -- he of two Norris trophies. Over the last two seasons, Karlsson has outscored every Maple Leaf except Matthews.

For me, it's cap + playstyle + Karlsson on the downswing (and 1.75 ankles) being paid for past performance, costing us a probable superstar player at his ground-floor.

 

[Phileas Fogg]

My only hesitation would be cap implications.

Ignoring that, I would take Karlsson for Nylander without even batting an eye. Honestly, it's a ridiculous suggestion though. I think people are seriously overvaluing Nylander or seriously undervaluing Karlsson -- he of two Norris trophies. Over the last two seasons, Karlsson has outscored every Maple Leaf except Matthews.

For me, it's cap + playstyle + Karlsson on the downswing (and 1.75 ankles) being paid for past performance, costing us a probable superstar player at his ground-floor.

Yeah, I agree with the first part. Truth be told, if Karlsson was an FA, I wouldn't want to do a Tavares-level contract with him, let alone give up Nylander. It's not that he isn't a great player - but I get the feeling there's more risk there on a long term than most. I'd rather hedge my bets on spreading the D-man cap over a number of bodies rather than going heavy on Karlsson.

 

[Coco-puffs]

I think everyone here has some clouded judgement on Karlsson.

- He put up 62 points in 71 games last season.  He also had his lowest shooting percentage since his rookie season (4.6%... career 6.8%).
- He had a 51.4% CF on a dismal team (6.4% CFRel)
- If he didn't get PDO'd to death last season, he would have been in the Norris conversation again.  And he should have more than the 1 he's won so far.

Concerns that his previous injuries limited him are overblown (cmon, look at those numbers!)
The only thing that would hold me back on signing him to a FA deal near Tavares money would be cap space, but I'd probably still make it happen and then figure out the rest after.
In terms of trading Nylander for him... I'd do it only with an extension for Karlsson in hand, but I'd still do it.
He's still the best back of his generation and while years 6-8 of his next deal might be a problem due to aging curves, elite guys usually don't decline as fast as the rest. 

I mean, we'd be talking about the next 4 years of running Top 4D/Top 9F:

Dermott - Karlsson
Rielly - Zaitsev/Liljegren

Marleau/Johnsson - Matthews - Kapanen
Hyman - Tavares - Marner
Johnsson/Grundstrom - Kadri - Brown

 

[dappleganger]

There's a lot of undervaluing of Karlsson happening here...

 

[CarltonTheBear]

There's a lot of undervaluing of Karlsson happening here...

It is legitimately difficult to assess his value considering he's a year away from UFA though.

I've said this before but I almost guarantee if/when Ottawa trades him the value will be underwhelming. Which is why I said they'd jump for joy if a guy like Nylander was available in trade talks (for the record, I doubt he is).

 

[herman]

You also have to look at Karlsson as a percentage of team offense. If he's on our team, he's not getting those numbers (at least not in that way). On the sens, that's literally their only option now.

In general, I want the defense feeding the forwards for chances. You don't need a Karlsson for that. Put your cap allocation in your goal getters.

 

[Coco-puffs]

You also have to look at Karlsson as a percentage of team offense. If he's on our team, he's not getting those numbers (at least not in that way). On the sens, that's literally their only option now.

In general, I want the defense feeding the forwards for chances. You don't need a Karlsson for that. Put your cap allocation in your goal getters.

So you don't want the BEST transition d-man in the NHL on your team?  You know, feeding forwards like this:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jkELLP5WdS0

 

[bustaheims]

I've said this before but I almost guarantee if/when Ottawa trades him the value will be underwhelming. Which is why I said they'd jump for joy if a guy like Nylander was available in trade talks (for the record, I doubt he is).

Yeah. When you look at the few instances in recent history where high profile guys were traded without term on their contracts, the return is usually only okay. Very rarely are top flight prospects/young guys involved. It's usually good but not great prospects/players (Kapanen-types, at best).

 

[Coco-puffs]

I've said this before but I almost guarantee if/when Ottawa trades him the value will be underwhelming. Which is why I said they'd jump for joy if a guy like Nylander was available in trade talks (for the record, I doubt he is).

Yeah. When you look at the few instances in recent history where high profile guys were traded without term on their contracts, the return is usually only okay. Very rarely are top flight prospects/young guys involved. It's usually good but not great prospects/players (Kapanen-types, at best).

Usually those deals are 4 quarters for a dollar deals.  Where the 3 of the quarters aren't actually quarters because they are prospects/picks and might become pennies.

In a 1 for 1 deal, you aren't getting a (devalued) EK for anything less than a Nylander type.


EDIT:  Anyways.  There is ZERO chance of this happening.  Even if Nylander was offered up for him and its the best option for the Sens, THEY wouldn't do the deal.

 

[Zee]

I think opposing GMs should offer nothing for Karlsson.  Let him walk in July and watch the frenzy begin. 

 

[Bullfrog]

Ya, I'm going go ahead and say that half of you are nuts. This is Erik Karlsson we're talking about. He's not a 40-year cripple.

When I was responding to the initial thought, I was assuming that an extended contract comes with that, which is why I think it's nuts that anyone would hesitate. I understand there's concern about dealing a potential superstar, but in return, you're getting a bonafide superstar.

I'm going to single out herman here for a second (mostly because I know he can take it): while I understand the concept and preference regarding "feeding the goal-getters", there isn't anyone better in the league than Karlsson and doing just that. His offensive game is so scary it opens up huge opportunities for the goal-getters. Honestly, I think people are overanalyzing this. There are two players on the team I wouldn't trade for Karlsson (with an agreed contract): John Tavares and Auston Matthews..........that's it.

 

[Zee]

Ya, I'm going go ahead and say that half of you are nuts. This is Erik Karlsson we're talking about. He's not a 40-year cripple.

When I was responding to the initial thought, I was assuming that an extended contract comes with that, which is why I think it's nuts that anyone would hesitate. I understand there's concern about dealing a potential superstar, but in return, you're getting a bonafide superstar.

I'm going to single out herman here for a second (mostly because I know he can take it): while I understand the concept and preference regarding "feeding the goal-getters", there isn't anyone better in the league than Karlsson and doing just that. His offensive game is so scary it opens up huge opportunities for the goal-getters. Honestly, I think people are overanalyzing this. There are two players on the team I wouldn't trade for Karlsson (with an agreed contract): John Tavares and Auston Matthews..........that's it.

Karlsson's going to be 29 this season, you sign him to a huge 8 year deal and he's 37 at the end and probably playing way less effectively than he can now.  At the same time you're willing to trade a 20 or 21 year old player who in 8 years could be one of the best forwards in the game.  Hard no for me.

 

[dappleganger]

Let me pose this:

What would people feel about the Jets sending Nik Ehlers and Tyler Myers for Karlsson?

 

[herman]

Ya, I'm going go ahead and say that half of you are nuts. This is Erik Karlsson we're talking about. He's not a 40-year cripple.

When I was responding to the initial thought, I was assuming that an extended contract comes with that, which is why I think it's nuts that anyone would hesitate. I understand there's concern about dealing a potential superstar, but in return, you're getting a bonafide superstar.

I'm going to single out herman here for a second (mostly because I know he can take it): while I understand the concept and preference regarding "feeding the goal-getters", there isn't anyone better in the league than Karlsson and doing just that. His offensive game is so scary it opens up huge opportunities for the goal-getters. Honestly, I think people are overanalyzing this. There are two players on the team I wouldn't trade for Karlsson (with an agreed contract): John Tavares and Auston Matthews..........that's it.

8)

I'm not saying Karlsson is bad and broken; I am saying he's not the right fit (especially at the price he's likely to get 7y/11+), and especially not at an asset cost like Nylander, even with the extension.

This is Erik Karlsson's effect at 5v5 (via Hockeyviz)

This is a combination of their system and Ottawa's lacklustre non-Karlsson players.

What I'm thinking we should be looking for instead:

Not necessarily saying we need to target Jared Spurgeon (is he a product of Ryan Suter?), but he's a cheaper option and maybe gets you 70% of Karlsson's effect without costing 70%.

i.e. hold the fort for Liljegren.

 

[Bullfrog]

Karlsson's going to be 29 this season, you sign him to a huge 8 year deal and he's 37 at the end and probably playing way less effectively than he can now.  At the same time you're willing to trade a 20 or 21 year old player who in 8 years could be one of the best forwards in the game.  Hard no for me.

I love Nylander, but I suppose I just can't believe he'll be one of the best forwards in the game. Will he be a premier scoring winger? Ya, almost certainly. Will he ever be in conversations for a major award? No, very unlikely.

And lets at least be honest about the facts. Nylander's already 22 -- which is obviously still young -- and Karlsson doesn't turn 29 until the playoffs, when Nylander turns 23.

 

[Guru Tugginmypuddah]

This may not be a popular opinion, but I don't really see what all the fuss is about Nylander.  I don't think he will cut it as a centre in the NHL.  As a winger he's pretty good, but he's not elite in my books.  I think Karlsson would give the Leafs a better chance of winning a cup in the next 2-5 years than Nylander will, and on that basis alone would do the trade in a second.

Long term, Karlsson will be expensive, and he his play will decline over the term of the contract to the point where the later years we'll be shaking our heads, but have a cup or two to show for it. 

If Karlsson was willing to sign an extension for around $11M, I would even throw in a first rounder. 

 

[dappleganger]

This may not be a popular opinion, but I don't really see what all the fuss is about Nylander.  I don't think he will cut it as a centre in the NHL.  As a winger he's pretty good, but he's not elite in my books.  I think Karlsson would give the Leafs a better chance of winning a cup in the next 2-5 years than Nylander will, and on that basis alone would do the trade in a second.

Long term, Karlsson will be expensive, and he his play will decline over the term of the contract to the point where the later years we'll be shaking our heads, but have a cup or two to show for it. 

If Karlsson was willing to sign an extension for around $11M, I would even throw in a first rounder.

I'm right with you. The trade I posed with my friends was Nylander + Gardiner + 2019 1st for Karlsson.

With an 11m extension, the money comes back about neutral with Nylander being replaced by Johnsson or Kapanen in the lineup.