Armchair GM Thread 2020-2021

[OldTimeHockey]

• Andersen and Hyman hit UFA 2021: of the 2, you can easily convince me to re-sign and protect Hyman, especially if a Kapanen/Johnsson get moved out
• Andersen probably doesn't get re-upped here; overpaying 30+ goaltenders is a death sentence in the Cap era (MTL, FLA) even if they're All-Star caliber.

Good post...The only thing I question is the above. I understand your desire not to Montreal this and sign an overhyped, injury prone goalie to a 70 year 700 million dollar contract, but I'm not sure I want to see a poor defensive team with a Jack Campbell/Insert Mediocre starter here tandem and expect to compete.

I'm not even a big Andersen fan but he's going to produce more wins than Campbell and any partner you find for him. Unless there's a guy waiting in the wings relatively soon, or a potential UFA to pick up, i don't see how you go with two borderline starters.

 

[herman]

https://twitter.com/_marlanderthews/status/1248031815375486977

Pulling this in from the main thread because CJ talk about the pandemic ramifications on the salary cap beyond it staying flat: there?s a possibility for a new CBA or salary roll back (a la post-04/05).

Dubas has insinuated this possibility as well (obliquely), that some UFAs then might make different decisions coming out of this situation than they normally would have looking at a long term pay day: i.e. short term to ride out the changed salary measures and jump to a new contract sooner. I don?t think a top flight player will take a Spezza year, but they might accommodate their team of choice?s cap situation more readily for just a spell.

Too early to say anything definitive but it will have some bearing on how the Leafs proceed with Andersen. Heck maybe even Tyson Barrie.

 

[Phileas Fogg]

I'm not even a big Andersen fan but he's going to produce more wins than Campbell and any partner you find for him. Unless there's a guy waiting in the wings relatively soon, or a potential UFA to pick up, i don't see how you go with two borderline starters.

I'd love to see Andersen extended for at least enough time to get some goaltending depth in the system, but another team(s) surely can and will be able to offer more than the leafs can match.

Personally, I find goaltending a difficult position to judge. I don't think that GAA and SV% are particularly good metrics in isolation, and the optics of giving up goals or big saves in tight games tends to cloud judgement. I tend to think Andersen is an elite goalie, playing in front of a very poor defensive team for the majority of his tenure.

 

[herman]

https://twitter.com/a_kalnins/status/1248934189870825473

Potential KHL ELC goalie off the board.
https://www.sportsnet.ca/hockey/nhl/maple-leafs-interested-record-breaking-khl-goalie-timur-bilyalov/

 

[Highlander]

As Dorothy said "Theres no place like home"............especially in these days.

 

[herman]

Let's say it's July 13, the Leafs have no cap space to land any big RD fish, even after trading out a 3ishM winger for picks and parts.

Is Cody Ceci a no-brainer to bring back on a 1-yr 700k to 1M deal for a third pair-PK role?

I'd be a yes. Is this situation likely to play out... maybe!

 

[Kin]

I admit this isn't how I wanted to make the point but I sure hope we can now all agree that a cap system that doesn't really allow for any flexibility in case the cap drops is probably a bad idea.

 

[herman]

I admit this isn't how I wanted to make the point but I sure hope we can now all agree that a cap system that doesn't really allow for any flexibility in case the cap drops is probably a bad idea.

Most chatter (via CJ) regarding the cap is that the league and PA will not allow it to drop, holding flat at worst, but I do agree there should be a mechanism in place (luxury tax).

 

[princedpw]

I admit this isn't how I wanted to make the point but I sure hope we can now all agree that a cap system that doesn't really allow for any flexibility in case the cap drops is probably a bad idea.

Most chatter (via CJ) regarding the cap is that the league and PA will not allow it to drop, holding flat at worst, but I do agree there should be a mechanism in place (luxury tax).

A luxury tax would be awesome, but the owners will never allow it.

I think the fairest thing to do is to set the cap at roughly what it would have been had there been no pandemic.  If you do that then all of the players will take a salary hit in proportion to their current salary and/or salary that they would have received had there been no pandemic (via the escrow mechanism).

If you set the cap (substantially) lower than that (and there is no buyout mechanism), what will wind up happening is that all of the players who already have contracts will not take (much of) a hit and there will be no money left to pay the free agents.  It doesn't seem reasonable that there be massive discrepancies in pay based solely on whether or not a player has a contract through the next year or is a free agent.

----

More generally, a better way to do player contracts is not to assign players set dollar amounts but rather to assign them cap percentages each year.  Then the money they receive automatically goes up and down with league revenue.  Players (and GMs) wouldn't have to guess at what future caps will be.  Right now, we'll have a huge decrease, but in some future year, when we recover, we'll likely have some massive increase.  It makes more sense to me to avoid the guess work involved in economic forecasting, and simply assign players value relative to the cap (and eachother).

 

[dappleganger]

Can we find out if owners have insurance policies that cover losses due to a pandemic? Also, if the players have this type of coverage as well.

 

[bustaheims]

Can we find out if owners have insurance policies that cover losses due to a pandemic? Also, if the players have this type of coverage as well.

That information will only become publicly available if the teams or players want it to. I doubt we'll ever know for sure whether or not their insurance policies cover pandemics (there are definitely policies out there that do, but there are also lots that don't - I imagine some teams and players have the right policies, but I doubt there's blanket coverage across the league).

 

[L K]

I'm sure a team like the Leafs pays for a disaster insurance.  Teams like Florida and some of the other teams who historically haven't paid for insurance on riskier contracts I would imagine haven't.

 

[herman]

I know that we always say "so and so is going to take a hometown discount with us" and it basically never happens and we look like idiots... but I could really see Hyman taking a hometown discount with us.

https://twitter.com/lukefoxjukebox/status/1250827878452912131

Dude noped out of Florida trying to sign him out of University and for all intents and purposes ask them to trade him to Toronto.

 

[CarltonTheBear]

Corye Pronman's (someone who I generally like, but obviously no one is perfect) short scouting report about Hyman from 2015 that was referenced in that article is pretty funny in hindsight:

https://twitter.com/coreypronman/status/611982706415677440

 

[herman]

Corye Pronman's (someone who I generally like, but obviously no one is perfect) short scouting report about Hyman from 2015 that was referenced in that article is pretty funny in hindsight:

https://twitter.com/coreypronman/status/611982706415677440

I laughed too. But hey, we all kind of thought that in his first full season alongside Matthews and Nylander. Credit Babcock and Hyman's attitude/work for the 180 on his career arc perception.

The linked Star article about Hyman (prior to his being drafted) speaks to Hyman's work ethic and the chip on his shoulder from his father's antics. Everyone looked down on him because it seemed like his dad bought Zach's way onto the team, or into the draft.

 

[CarltonTheBear]

I laughed too. But hey, we all kind of thought that in his first full season alongside Matthews and Nylander. Credit Babcock and Hyman's attitude/work for the 180 on his career arc perception.

I don't know what you're talking about I've never spoken ill of Mr. Hyman.

 

[herman]

I laughed too. But hey, we all kind of thought that in his first full season alongside Matthews and Nylander. Credit Babcock and Hyman's attitude/work for the 180 on his career arc perception.

I don't know what you're talking about I've never spoken ill of Mr. Hyman.

A likely story from someone who has to Porky Pig it because his pants burned away.

 

[Chris]

I laughed too. But hey, we all kind of thought that in his first full season alongside Matthews and Nylander. Credit Babcock and Hyman's attitude/work for the 180 on his career arc perception.

I don't know what you're talking about I've never spoken ill of Mr. Hyman.

I remember referring to him as a "black hole on offense" a few years ago. Not because of his corner work/puck retrieval skills (which were and remain top notch), but because whenever someone passed him the puck and he had time/space, he always seemed to make a bad play - either holding the puck too long and eventually losing it, or making a bad pass or shot. To his credit, he's really improved in that area the last couple of years.

 

[Kin]

I admit this isn't how I wanted to make the point but I sure hope we can now all agree that a cap system that doesn't really allow for any flexibility in case the cap drops is probably a bad idea.

Most chatter (via CJ) regarding the cap is that the league and PA will not allow it to drop, holding flat at worst, but I do agree there should be a mechanism in place (luxury tax).

I don't think you need anything as drastic as a luxury tax. You could just make it so that if a player signs a deal his % of the cap could decrease as the cap went up but it couldn't increase if the cap dropped.

Yes, it would fundamentally have the effect of making it a soft cap but it would be a minor change to address a possibility that hasn't happened in 15 years of a cap.

 

[herman]

https://twitter.com/andystrickland/status/1251196186398253057