Armchair GM Thread 2022-2023

[herman]

I think it's perfectly fine, and necessary even, to keep cap hit invested in players that elevate their teammates' production.

Guys that do that, in my estimation:
Matthews, Marner, Nylander, Tavares, Kampf, Engvall, Brodie, Muzzin, Giordano

Where's Rielly?
Rielly is a weapon from the blueline: he gets up in the play for the Leafs to create odd-man advantages, but his defensive game (off the rush, ironically) needs a lot of support. He's like a defenseman Kessel (without the shot).

 

[CarltonTheBear]

On that note, who is the 2022 Michael Bunting who we can get for a steal?

Feels kinda like slim pickings this year. Looking at some of the Group 6 UFAs first (younger guys who became UFAs early because of lack of GP, like Bunting) there's a trio of former Soo Greyhounds in Colton White, Zach Senyshyn, and Blake Speers. White might be an ok 7-9 depth defenceman option, Senyshyn would be a funny pick-up if the Leafs can salvage anything from him, and Speers is just a hard no based on his career stats. The first two wouldn't be the worst Marlies signings but that's about it.

A couple of Group 6 UFAs who have had big AHL seasons would be Sheldon Rempal and Tiro Hirose. Hirose might be a little more familiar to Leafs fans as they were rumoured to be among the teams chasing him when he was an undrafted NCAA free agent. He put up close to PPG numbers in the AHL the past 3 seasons but doesn't seem to have gotten much of a chance in the NHL. He might just be one of those tweener guys but I mean it wouldn't hurt to have a guy like that on the Marlies anyway.

Dakota Joshua would be the last Group 6 guy to jump out. Again, another name that Leafs fans would be familiar with as he was drafted by the team way back in 2014. It took him awhile to reach the NHL but it seems like he's turned into a serviceable 4th liner who likes to throw his body around. No real upside beyond that though.

As for just regular UFAs that might be good underrated options, I mentioned a few at the start of this thread: Domi, Paul, Aston-Reece. A couple other middle-6 wingers who I think might get contracts just a little out of Toronto's reach would be Valeri Nichushkin and Nino Niederreiter.

The biggest source of value might once again come from guys who don't get qualifying offers. Last year we were able to pick up Ritchie, Kase, and Kampf like that. Kind of impossible to predict who might become available from that though. Buy outs are another option too. One possible option there would be Philippe Myers, who actually played a bit with the Marlies late this season. He'd be a pretty intriguing option for a 7th defenceman.

 

[CarltonTheBear]

Scrolling through the list of pending RFAs, here's a couple of names that I think might have a chance of not getting qualified that the Leafs could have interest in: Dominik Kubalik and Miles Wood.

Kubalik put up 30 goals and 46 points in 65 games in his rookie season back in 19/20. He followed that up with 17 goals/38 points in 56 games last season and 15 goals/32 points this season. He had a pretty sky-high shooting percentage in his rookie season so a drop in goals/points wasn't totally unexpected. He's due a $4mil qualifying offer so I'd be pretty surprised if Chicago offered that to him at this point. Even if he doesn't get back to 30 goals someone who could pot 15-20 would be useful to have somewhere on the 2nd or 3rd lines. Also seems to be a pretty good PP guy. Maybe he forms a Czech connection line with Kampf and Kase.

Miles Wood turns 27 this September and has established himself as a heart and soul bottom-6 type player who hits a ton and is capable of putting up 30 or so points a season. He's not really a guy the Devils would want to part with but he was only able to play 3 games this past season because of a hip injury. He'll be due a $3.5mil qualifying offer this summer, and I definitely think it's pretty likely New Jersey offers that to him despite his injury but on that small chance they decide not to he should shoot right up to the top of Toronto's targets. Even if they do qualify him, the Leafs should probably check in on his availability since he'll be a year away from UFA status.

 

[Bill_Berg]

Scrolling through the list of pending RFAs, here's a couple of names that I think might have a chance of not getting qualified that the Leafs could have interest in: Dominik Kubalik and Miles Wood.

Kubalik put up 30 goals and 46 points in 65 games in his rookie season back in 19/20. He followed that up with 17 goals/38 points in 56 games last season and 15 goals/32 points this season. He had a pretty sky-high shooting percentage in his rookie season so a drop in goals/points wasn't totally unexpected. He's due a $4mil qualifying offer so I'd be pretty surprised if Chicago offered that to him at this point. Even if he doesn't get back to 30 goals someone who could pot 15-20 would be useful to have somewhere on the 2nd or 3rd lines. Also seems to be a pretty good PP guy. Maybe he forms a Czech connection line with Kampf and Kase.

Miles Wood turns 27 this September and has established himself as a heart and soul bottom-6 type player who hits a ton and is capable of putting up 30 or so points a season. He's not really a guy the Devils would want to part with but he was only able to play 3 games this past season because of a hip injury. He'll be due a $3.5mil qualifying offer this summer, and I definitely think it's pretty likely New Jersey offers that to him despite his injury but on that small chance they decide not to he should shoot right up to the top of Toronto's targets. Even if they do qualify him, the Leafs should probably check in on his availability since he'll be a year away from UFA status.

How about Kapanen?

 

[bustaheims]

Scrolling through the list of pending RFAs, here's a couple of names that I think might have a chance of not getting qualified that the Leafs could have interest in: Dominik Kubalik and Miles Wood.

Kubalik put up 30 goals and 46 points in 65 games in his rookie season back in 19/20. He followed that up with 17 goals/38 points in 56 games last season and 15 goals/32 points this season. He had a pretty sky-high shooting percentage in his rookie season so a drop in goals/points wasn't totally unexpected. He's due a $4mil qualifying offer so I'd be pretty surprised if Chicago offered that to him at this point. Even if he doesn't get back to 30 goals someone who could pot 15-20 would be useful to have somewhere on the 2nd or 3rd lines. Also seems to be a pretty good PP guy. Maybe he forms a Czech connection line with Kampf and Kase.

Miles Wood turns 27 this September and has established himself as a heart and soul bottom-6 type player who hits a ton and is capable of putting up 30 or so points a season. He's not really a guy the Devils would want to part with but he was only able to play 3 games this past season because of a hip injury. He'll be due a $3.5mil qualifying offer this summer, and I definitely think it's pretty likely New Jersey offers that to him despite his injury but on that small chance they decide not to he should shoot right up to the top of Toronto's targets. Even if they do qualify him, the Leafs should probably check in on his availability since he'll be a year away from UFA status.

How about Kapanen?

I think that ship has sailed.

Pavel Zacha might be someone who shakes loose. NJ might not want to qualify him at $3M considering his production has been disappointing for a 6th overall pick. He could be a nice 3rd line C who can chip in some offensively.

 

[herman]

Haha this front office does not want to deal with Kapanen anymore.

 

[CarltonTheBear]

How about Kapanen?

I looked up his qualifying offer and found out something I either didn't know or knew but forgot: qualifying offers are calculated off a players base salary only. That means that, per Capfriendly, Kapanen's qualifying offer is only $840,000 since a majority of his salary came from signing bonuses. Now, he will be eligible for arbitration though so maybe the Pens still just cut him loose if they need to find room to get Malkin and Letang back.

I don't know if he'd be right at the top of my list if he became an UFA but I'd circle back on him if we still had a hole on the right side and he was willing to come back on a cheap deal.

 

[L K]

How low do we think we can get the average on Giordano.  Do we go 3 years to try and get it as cheap as possible?

3 years 6 million? Less?  Man it would be great if it could be less but that's a huge pay cut.

 

[Guilt Trip]

How low do we think we can get the average on Giordano.  Do we go 3 years to try and get it as cheap as possible?

3 years 6 million? Less?  Man it would be great if it could be less but that's a huge pay cut.

Yes you add a year to it. He can go to Robidas Island if needed. I see him making 3+ so extend it another year. Chances are he won't be playing then anyway so the money is the same

 

[herman]

CJ joined SDP to play Staying or Going. These are just his (rapid-fire) educated guesses/feelings (57:30)

Spezza: staying, not as a player
Mikheyev: going
Campbell: going
Mrazek: going
Giordano: staying
Lyubushkin: no idea
Muzzin: Leafs love him, he is their conscience in the dressing room; not written in stone but this might be the 'core' move
Simmonds: staying, might not be playing
Kerfoot: going
Holl: going
Engvall: staying
Blackwell: *shrug*

He does specify that when he's on Insider Trading, he isn't guessing; but on a show like this he is just sharing what he's thinking

 

[CarltonTheBear]

He does specify that when he's on Insider Trading, he isn't guessing; but on a show like this he is just sharing what he's thinking

 

[Joe S.]

So 40% of the roster is turning over in 1 year?

 

[herman]

So 40% of the roster is turning over in 1 year?

Other than Muzzin (if that comes to fruition) and the goaltenders, it's mostly in the crumple zone of the roster. Plug and play wingers, depth forwards that we already have internal options for.

Replacing Muzzin with Giordano, and using some of that cap hit (+ Kerfoot) towards an impact 2-way C/W instead would go along way. We have far more LD depth than we do top-6 depth.

 

[Bender]

So 40% of the roster is turning over in 1 year?

Other than Muzzin (if that comes to fruition) and the goaltenders, it's mostly in the crumple zone of the roster. Plug and play wingers, depth forwards that we already have internal options for.

Replacing Muzzin with Giordano, and using some of that cap hit (+ Kerfoot) towards an impact 2-way C/W instead would go along way. We have far more LD depth than we do top-6 depth.

Yeah I mean we can't keep letting guys walk. Need to turn the roster over with guys who are pending UFAs and get guys with some term.

 

[Frank E]

I keep going back to a point that has been made most recently by Nik...we've got to get some penetration of ELC guys on this roster to make the cap structure of this team work.

I admittedly don't watch the Marlies, but I'm waiting for some of Dubas' signings to break through here.  Seems the Ho-Sang experiment didn't go as nicely as we had hoped (he's not ELC anyways but whatever)...Steeves?  Anderson?  Douglas?  Can any of the 22-23 year olds take a 3rd-4th line spot?  Holmberg is 23.  Guys like Gogolev and Kivihalme seem to have gone backwards.  Duszak is 24 and a RFA with arb rights, but really doesn't have an NHL resume at all.

I remember back when guys like Kapanen or Johnsson were coming through Keefe's Marlies and learned PK skills so that they could fit into the lineup (at least I think I remember that right).

It just seems to me the window is passing by, and we don't have the cheap young soldiers coming through to support the front line guys.

 

[L K]

All of our best prospects are in College or Europe and unfortunately are not here in the next year or so.

Lou/Hunter drafts didn't really yield much and then the team probably spent a few too many draft picks on largely ineffective deadline acquisitions.

 

[ZBBM]

All of our best prospects are in College or Europe and unfortunately are not here in the next year or so.

Lou/Hunter drafts didn't really yield much and then the team probably spent a few too many draft picks on largely ineffective deadline acquisitions.

Foligno, e.g.  Dubas managed this year well, though.

 

[Arn]

So with Giordano coming back for so little. Muzzin and Holl I think is the area you can maybe make a change on D in terms of trading them out. Kerfoot a possible mover also for someone a bit different (read: bigger) to go on the wing with Kadri and Tavares

Any chance of now fitting Kadri in on a UFA deal? He's coming off a career year, of course, but could you get him for around what he's on now?

Bunting - Matthews - Marner
??? - Kadri - Tavares
??? - ??? - Nylander
Kase - Kampf - Engvall

Then on D

Rielly - Brodie
Gio - Liljegren
Sandin - ???


And in Goal

I have no idea

Basically I'm wondering can we do something with Kadri, really.

 

[Kin]

I obviously can't speak for Kadri but if I had spent the last 6 years playing on a pretty team friendly deal I would be looking to get paid on my next deal.

 

[Guilt Trip]

So with Giordano coming back for so little. Muzzin and Holl I think is the area you can maybe make a change on D in terms of trading them out. Kerfoot a possible mover also for someone a bit different (read: bigger) to go on the wing with Kadri and Tavares

Any chance of now fitting Kadri in on a UFA deal? He's coming off a career year, of course, but could you get him for around what he's on now?

Bunting - Matthews - Marner
??? - Kadri - Tavares
??? - ??? - Nylander
Kase - Kampf - Engvall

Then on D

Rielly - Brodie
Gio - Liljegren
Sandin - ???


And in Goal

I have no idea

Basically I'm wondering can we do something with Kadri, really.

Kadri is going to get paid and it won't be here, just don't see it. Muzz has a full NTC so unless he wants to leave. Kerfoot, I believe is gone for sure. Like the player but need the 3.5. I also think they'll try to move on from Holl and Mrazek.
If Campbell asks for too much, I'd let him walk. He had a good playoff, not a great one but the second half of the year wasn't good for him. In his last 31 games his save percentage was 896. The Leafs outscored their opponents 133-95 in that period. His GAA was 3.22. That's terrible. 3 years Mrazek money tops.
Anyway it's going to be very interesting to see what Dubas and Company do this off season. So far the first move is a good one.