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Armchair GM Thread 2022-2023

I really like Nazem but man this year really sticks out as a contract season level of production.

87 points against a career high of 61

32 in 56, 36 in 51, 44 in 73 in the previous three seasons.  Someone is going to pay Kadri a lot of money and while they are getting a good player, you probably aren't getting another season like this out of him.
 
L K said:
I really like Nazem but man this year really sticks out as a contract season level of production.

87 points against a career high of 61

32 in 56, 36 in 51, 44 in 73 in the previous three seasons.  Someone is going to pay Kadri a lot of money and while they are getting a good player, you probably aren't getting another season like this out of him.
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Honestly, I'd be wary of signing anyone on the basis of this year. Maybe something's just different in the game but this year was just super screwy for some guys and point totals.
 
Kadri is going to get paid and deservedly so, won?t be by the leafs though.

Also, I think some people forget, Kadri is the same age as Tavares.
 
Just spitballing:

Comtois - Matthews - Anderson
Bunting - Tavares - Marner
Holmberg - Nylander - Engvall
McMann - Kampf - Blackwell
Steeves, Kase (if healthy)

Rielly - Brodie
Giordano - Liljegren
Muzzin - Sandin
Rubins (whoever doesn't need dev time anymore)

Mrazek
UFA whoever/Kallgren

I have projected Maxime Comtois (currently a Duck @ 2.03M with more dollars than cap hit for 1 year left) as a cheapo top-6 winger in a trade as a buy-low-make-good get. But it could be a higher profile LW to add to Matthews' wing (what's up, Taylor Hall?).

I've pushed Bunting and Marner down to maximize Tavares. Matthews isn't chasing individual records now, so the team depth performance takes higher priority. I'm grooming Nylander to take over 2C with a Swedish 3rd line.

I've graduated Holmberg, McMann and Anderson; nominally add Steeves and Rubins but these could easily be Robertson and Kral, but I prefer they get top minutes for development. If the team can see a role for him, Ho-Sang should get a look, but there isn't really a centre on the team that complements.

There should be money to accrue cap space for a bigger fish(es) at the deadline, but I ain't going to bother with the math.
 
Updated look at our cap situation with Giordano signed. This current 15-man roster gives us $9.4mil in cap space to play with:

Bunting-Matthews-Marner
Kerfoot-Tavares-Nylander
Robertson-Kampf-Simmonds

Rielly-Brodie
Giordano-Holl
Muzzin

Mrazek

Let's clear up our RFA situation and say the 4 NHLers there sign for $1.5mil each:

Bunting-Matthews-Marner
Kerfoot-Tavares-Nylander
Engvall-Kampf-Kase
Robertson-Simmonds

Rielly-Brodie
Giordano-Liljegren
Muzzin-Sandin
Holl

Mrazek

That brings us to a 19-man roster with about $3.4mil in cap space, 1 expendable defenceman, 1 goalie opening, and short a couple of forwards.

Logical move on defence is that Holl is a goner. Replacing him with a league minimum-ish guy at 7D opens up about $1.2mil in cap space and bumps that total number to $4.6mil.

Next logical expendable player becomes Kerfoot. He could be shipped out and replaced with two players for his cap hit. For this exercise let's say it's an UFA worth $2.75mil and Joey Anderson at $750k. Let's also just throw in one of our other $800k-ish forwards on the roster to fill out the line-up (Steeves/Holmberg/Abruzzese/MALGIN?):

Bunting-Matthews-Marner
Robertson-Tavares-Kase
Engvall-UFA-Nylander
Holmberg-Kampf-Anderson
Simmonds

Rielly-Brodie
Giordano-Liljegren
Muzzin-Sandin
Dahlstrom

Mrazek

That leaves us with roughly $3.8mil in cap space for our other goalie.

Specific line-up/roster decisions are obviously more up for debate, this little exercise was mostly just to show how much cap space we have to play around with assuming certain moves.

The big question of the offseason then for me will be which defenceman gets moved. As you can see, moving Holl gives us a very solid defence 1 through 6 (assuming Muzzin plays more like he did in the playoffs) but it doesn't provide much cap relief. Moving Muzzin instead of Holl though provides an additional $3.5mil in cap space to invest up front and/or on a goalie. Is that worth going from Muzzin-Sandin to Sandin-Holl on the bottom pairing?


 
I think the elephant in the room is a goalie and I think Campbell is going to chase $5m X 3-4 years somewhere, but I'm not sure he gets it...and I don't think Dubas is hitching his wagon to Campbell unless he comes in around Mrazek's deal.  We obviously have no heir apparent, so what's the play here?
 
Frank E said:
I think the elephant in the room is a goalie and I think Campbell is going to chase $5m X 3-4 years somewhere, but I'm not sure he gets it...and I don't think Dubas is hitching his wagon to Campbell unless he comes in around Mrazek's deal.  We obviously have no heir apparent, so what's the play here?
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I feel like the whole offseason goalie roulette thing that happens every year usually sorts itself out. We might not end up with a top-10 goalie leading the way but this team also doesn't really need one to have success. Heck Mrazek somehow ended up with a 12-6 record this season and Kallgren 8-4-1 and they both have a .888 Sv%. So I mean even worst case scenario if we're stuck with just those 2 in net I think this is still a playoff team, we just won't be setting another franchise record. I also think it's pretty much statistically unlikely for Mrazek to be as bad as he was this past season so if he's sticking around we can bank on at least some improvement there.

The UFA market isn't great, but there are some guys who could provide league average-ish goaltending out there. Kuemper likely re-signs with Colorado or is priced out from us, but after that some guys that I would at least consider: Fleury, Husso, Holtby, Koskinen, DeSmith, Comrie.

There's also some guys kicking around on the trade market. I mentioned Varlamov as someone who will probably get moved and could be a good fit here. Depending on what direction Anaheim goes Gibson could be someone who is available, although his contract and recent stats make him a little questionable for me. With San Jose picking up Koskinen that means one of Reimer or Hill will probably get moved. Again neither are the greatest of names but both have a good track record of providing league average goaltending. Georgiev in New York always feels like his name is out there and now that he's a RFA and 1 year away from unrestricted free agency maybe they finally look to get something for him assuming he doesn't want to sign long-term and be stuck behind Shesterkin.
 
CarltonTheBear said:
Frank E said:
I think the elephant in the room is a goalie and I think Campbell is going to chase $5m X 3-4 years somewhere, but I'm not sure he gets it...and I don't think Dubas is hitching his wagon to Campbell unless he comes in around Mrazek's deal.  We obviously have no heir apparent, so what's the play here?
Click to expand...

I feel like the whole offseason goalie roulette thing that happens every year usually sorts itself out. We might not end up with a top-10 goalie leading the way but this team also doesn't really need one to have success. Heck Mrazek somehow ended up with a 12-6 record this season and Kallgren 8-4-1 and they both have a .888 Sv%. So I mean even worst case scenario if we're stuck with just those 2 in net I think this is still a playoff team, we just won't be setting another franchise record. I also think it's pretty much statistically unlikely for Mrazek to be as bad as he was this past season so if he's sticking around we can bank on at least some improvement there.

The UFA market isn't great, but there are some guys who could provide league average-ish goaltending out there. Kuemper likely re-signs with Colorado or is priced out from us, but after that some guys that I would at least consider: Fleury, Husso, Holtby, Koskinen, DeSmith, Comrie.

There's also some guys kicking around on the trade market. I mentioned Varlamov as someone who will probably get moved and could be a good fit here. Depending on what direction Anaheim goes Gibson could be someone who is available, although his contract and recent stats make him a little questionable for me. With San Jose picking up Koskinen that means one of Reimer or Hill will probably get moved. Again neither are the greatest of names but both have a good track record of providing league average goaltending. Georgiev in New York always feels like his name is out there and now that he's a RFA and 1 year away from unrestricted free agency maybe they finally look to get something for him assuming he doesn't want to sign long-term and be stuck behind Shesterkin.
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You mean Kahkonen? Koskinen is on the Oilers and reports are he's heading home after this season. Georgiev intrigues me. 
 
Dylan Strome's a guy I'm starting to really hope the Leafs go after in the offseason. He had an up and down time in his 4 years with Chicago. Some of that inconsistency was his own fault for sure, but some of it was also because he played a big chunk of that time under a mediocre coach who didn't seem to like him (Colliton). This season he had a lot of hot and cold spurts, his hottest being a 13 game stretch where he had 10 goals and 10 assists playing 20 minutes a night.

He's coming off a 2-year, $3mil AAV contract and due a $3.6mil qualifying offer this summer. It was reported that Chicago was looking for just a 2nd rounder for him at the deadline, which seems pretty low to me. Just the other day Mark Lazerus of the Athletic reported that a team source says it's unlikely he'll be re-signed there as Chicago is looking to go into tank mode for Conor Bedard.

If you could get him for a 2nd rounder-ish type value and sign him to a $4mil-ish type contract I think he'd be a great fit for Nylander on the 3rd line (maybe even with other former Blackhawk Dominik Kubalik on the other wing if he isn't qualified). Strome would give Nylander a playmaking centre for pretty much the first time in his career and could help push him closer to the 40-goal mark. He could also transition to the 2C spot if/when Tavares' move to the wing happens.
 
This would be a hell of a longshot, and would also probably require a double retention and some serious assets going the other way, but if Chicago is serious about tanking for Bedard... Jonathan Toews has 1 year left on his deal.  :o

Would allow Tavares to move the wing, can play against the other team's top line, and never been a negative Corsi player, even this year when the Blackhawks were terrible.
 
louisstamos said:
This would be a hell of a longshot, and would also probably require a double retention and some serious assets going the other way, but if Chicago is serious about tanking for Bedard... Jonathan Toews has 1 year left on his deal.  :o

Would allow Tavares to move the wing, can play against the other team's top line, and never been a negative Corsi player, even this year when the Blackhawks were terrible.
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Would probably be too much in terms of asset cost and I'm not sure Toews can handle top 6 duties for a contending team anymore. Injuries and missing an entire season have really slowed him down. He's still an excellent defensive players, but his offence isn't there anymore (and, if we're being honest about him, he's mostly put up 2nd line C production throughout his career).
 
Deebo said:
Even at 50% retention, 5.25M for Toews could be too much for what he would contribute.
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Which, I imagine, is why double retention was the recommendation here. At $2.625M, he's good value - just, more as a 3rd line C, I'd say. But, that's where the asset cost becomes a much more significant issue.
 
Personal issues aside, the other big-salary Chicago player would be an even more appealing option in this pipe dream.
 
CarltonTheBear said:
Personal issues aside, the other big-salary Chicago player would be an even more appealing option in this pipe dream.
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Kane would define a better option. I like your idea of trying to get Strome out of them.
 
Can we really afford a 4M 3rd line centre?

I get that we probably can if we trade Kerfoot but is trading Kerfoot to acquire Strome a big enough upgrade?
 
L K said:
Can we really afford a 4M 3rd line centre?

I get that we probably can if we trade Kerfoot but is trading Kerfoot to acquire Strome a big enough upgrade?
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That's a pretty good point/question LK.
 
L K said:
Can we really afford a 4M 3rd line centre?

I get that we probably can if we trade Kerfoot but is trading Kerfoot to acquire Strome a big enough upgrade?
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It's doable. Would be a somewhat tight fit if we're just dumping Kerfoot+Holl, easier if it's Kerfoot+Muzzin. But doable either way. Having Giordano on such a cheap deal makes something like that more possible.

Also if it's Strome+Nylander together calling them the "3rd line" would really just be a technicality. They could also just get bumped to the 2nd line if Tavares slid to the wing right away.
 
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