Armchair GM Thread 2024-25

[herman]

I think this is probably the Leafs' best approach, filtering the chatter for options that meet their requirements first. Worst case is Marner nixes a trade, and we just get to keep him for a year (while he either suffers from the pressure, or leans into his spite and plays so well he jacks up his next contract price in UFA).

I was originally thinking of just letting Ferris talk to whatever teams Marner wanted to hear from, like it was 2025, but that wouldn't guarantee the Leafs anything useful in return (aside from cap room).

 

[L K]

It's showmanship...but I think this makes sense.  I'm sure they have had this conversation with Mitch/his agent that the team intends to listen to offers.  I don't know that this changes anything about how Marner's team is approaching the offseason.  I'm sure they will pass around numbers but given his last deal was signed right before training camp when it was 100% clear that both parties want him here, I have a hard time believing they will negotiate for a reasonable number when there is no obligation to do so.

Marner's camp can hold out even into the offseason as they could arrange a trade before free agency if he really wants the 8 year deal and the Leafs don't want to lose him for absolutely nothing.  There is no incentive from Marner to play nice and take a trade unless he doesn't want to risk social media criticism. 

 

[Guilt Trip]

There is no incentive from Marner to play nice and take a trade unless he doesn't want to risk social media criticism. 

He doesn't seem to care much about them now.

 

[CarltonTheBear]

Enjoying Capfriendly's Armchair GM feature while I still can. This one was all about "can we afford to acquire William Karlsson from Vegas AND still address the D+G?". Honestly I thought the answer to this would be no and was pleasantly surprised:

Starting out by having to clear salary. That's Kampf and Jarnkrok. Kampf to me is generally a goner in any offseason projection. Jarnkrok is less of a necessity to move and this would all technically still be possible with him but it would make the max roster size 21 instead of 22 so I'll take the extra flexibility largely because his roster spot is also going to be replaced by a cheaper veteran who might fit the vibes of the 24/25 team better. These are cap dumps. Kampf I could see going to NJ to be reunited with Keefe as they look to be in need of a 4C. Jarnkrok could fit on a lot of teams. If we get some sort of pick or young minor leaguer back for them great, if not I'll accept just the cap space.

Next up of course is acquiring William Karlsson. He's 31-years old, has a $5.9mil cap hit for the next 3 seasons. Ticks a lot of boxes as something we need (two-way centre, can win face-offs, kill penalties, fast, Swedish). Vegas has Eichel and Hertl occupying their top-2 centre spots though and with other needs Karlsson at $5.9mil is just a luxury they can't afford right now. This is a stereotypical fan trade offer but I would assume Liljegren and possibly Robertson as well would be parts of this trade. Lily in particular I could see fitting well with Vegas as they actually have a bit of a need at RHD at the moment. Other pieces would be required as well for sure but I doubt anything major (by that I mean Cowan, Minten, or maybe even another 1st as that's basically what Lily represents but if push came to shove and a 1st was needed I'd probably still pull the trigger) since we are talking about a non-elite forward on the wrong side of 30 who Vegas is looking to move for cap space. So that's that.

Next up some signings. I think Karlsson would keep us out of the hunt for Montour or Skjei, which is actually fine because I think I've actually landed on Roy and one of Tanev or Zadorov being my preferred D targets on July 1st. I give Roy $6mil for 6 years, and Tanev $4.5mil for 3 years. Maybe even add a 4th year to Tanev if that's necessary, somewhat decent chance he'd be a LTIR candidate at that point anyway. Stolarz is my go to goalie option now and he's at $3.25mil here. Dewar is the lone RFA re-signed at $950k.

Things are tight for cap space right now but we still need an additional forward. I think getting creative with David Perron on a 35+ performance bonus deal is the best way to squeeze a quality middle-6 winger onto the team, even if it comes at a price in 25/26 with the carryover bonus. I have Perron signing for just $1mil, with two sets of bonuses (one easy to achieve and another that's a little more challenging) that would bring his total hit to about $3-3.5mil if hit.

That leaves us with a roster that looks like this:

Knies-Matthews-Nylander
McMann-Karlsson-Marner
Cowan-Tavares-Perron
Holmberg-Dewar-Reaves

Rielly-Roy
McCabe-Tanev
Benoit-Timmins

Woll
Stolarz

With that there would still be $1.7mil left over, enough for 2 additional roster players who would hopefully both be eligible to go up and down with the Marlies in order to bank cap space throughout the season for a possible deadline add somewhere. I would be perfectly fine with bringing Klingberg back either on a bury-able contract or possibly even PTO in order to compete with Timmins for the final D spot at training camp.

 

[herman]

I like pretty much all of the above, especially if we can fish Matt Roy out of LA (which I think is a bit unlikely unless we overpay). Another option for forward I saw from Stephen Brown, is Viktor Arvidsson, who is UFA and coming off an injury-riddled season. He qualifies for a performance bonus-type contract a la Connor Brown, but we could probably just stipulate something more sensical than play 10 games (score 15 goals?). He's small, but used to be very feisty and fast.

I wonder if Vegas would Nate-Schmidt us Karlsson...

 

[CarltonTheBear]

I like pretty much all of the above, especially if we can fish Matt Roy out of LA (which I think is a bit unlikely unless we overpay).

The Daily Faceoff posted his projection at $5.5mil x 4 years, while the Athletic/Evolving Hockey put him at $6.1mil x 5 years. So I think $6mil x 6 years would certainly be on the high end of his offers considering he does have pretty limited offensive abilities. Especially as far as offers from serious/contending teams go (i.e. teams that aren't like San Jose or Chicago or Utah who are just looking to burn money).

Another option for forward I saw from Stephen Brown, is Viktor Arvidsson, who is UFA and coming off an injury-riddled season. He qualifies for a performance bonus-type contract a la Connor Brown, but we could probably just stipulate something more sensical than play 10 games (score 15 goals?). He's small, but used to be very feisty and fast.

Yeah I've mentioned Arvidsson before as well. He could certainly fit that role too and honestly I'd probably prefer him over Perron since he's younger and faster. But Perron just makes a lot more sense due to the Berube connection. I think for either of them if you're going with a base salary of $1mil to make things work cap wise you need at least another $1-1.5mil in very easy to achieve bonuses (like 10GP) since other teams would likely offer that as guaranteed money. After that another $1mil or so in higher offensive targets like 15 goals or 40 points is what I'd be thinking.

I wonder if Vegas would Nate-Schmidt us Karlsson...

Yeah I really don't know what I would expect from a Karlsson trade. Guys like Schmidt and Fleury were of course basically given away for free in order to clear salary for Vegas. I don't expect that to happen with Karlsson though but hey who knows.

 

[herman]

I like pretty much all of the above, especially if we can fish Matt Roy out of LA (which I think is a bit unlikely unless we overpay).

The Daily Faceoff posted his projection at $5.5mil x 4 years, while the Athletic/Evolving Hockey put him at $6.1mil x 5 years. So I think $6mil x 6 years would certainly be on the high end of his offers considering he does have pretty limited offensive abilities. Especially as far as offers from serious/contending teams go (i.e. teams that aren't like San Jose or Chicago or Utah who are just looking to burn money).

My concern is not so much what we offer Roy, but if LA even lets him get to UFA. I hope he does (because LA wouldn't be offering 8 years at this point, right?). He'd be my top UFA-D option. I am suspicious of most of Carolina's D numbers.

Another option for forward I saw from Stephen Brown, is Viktor Arvidsson, who is UFA and coming off an injury-riddled season. He qualifies for a performance bonus-type contract a la Connor Brown, but we could probably just stipulate something more sensical than play 10 games (score 15 goals?). He's small, but used to be very feisty and fast.

Yeah I've mentioned Arvidsson before as well. He could certainly fit that role too and honestly I'd probably prefer him over Perron since he's younger and faster. But Perron just makes a lot more sense due to the Berube connection. I think for either of them if you're going with a base salary of $1mil to make things work cap wise you need at least another $1-1.5mil in very easy to achieve bonuses (like 10GP) since other teams would likely offer that as guaranteed money. After that another $1mil or so in higher offensive targets like 15 goals or 40 points is what I'd be thinking.

Oh yeah, other teams. You plan is sound. Not too plussed about the cap hit spilling over to next season.

 

[herman]

My Offseason Shopping List by priority
[*] 2x RD: at least one should be top-4 capable; skill priority in order: puck retrieval acumen, PK effectiveness, skating, passing
[*] Mid-range Goalie: stable presence, needs to be able to handle Toronto media, needs to not be a ghoulish conspiracy-nut
[*] Middle 6 Centre: RH preference with PK experience; hopefully fast-ish
[*] Cheap fast forwards: RH preference with PK and forecheckiness

My shopping options for each
[*] Matt Roy, Chris Tanev, Dylan DeMelo, Alex Carrier
[*] I don't know, trade for Filip Gustavsson?
[*] Elias Lindholm (probably overpay a bit) or trade nearly nothing for a William Karlsson cap dump
[*] Michael Amadio, Sam Lafferty (lol), Kasperi Kapanen (lmao)

 

[CarltonTheBear]

My shopping options for each

• Matt Roy, Chris Tanev, Dylan DeMelo, Alex Carrier
• I don't know, trade for Filip Gustavsson?
• Elias Lindholm (probably overpay a bit) or trade nearly nothing for a William Karlsson cap dump
• Michael Amadio, Sam Lafferty (lol), Kasperi Kapanen (lmao)

I actually think Gustavsson will be a sneaky good add for a team somewhere this season but I'm not sure it'll be the Leafs. Gus has openly said it himself that a big thing he needs to work on is his "mental mindset" to be a more consistent goalie. He seems to have a hard time digging himself out of the lows of a season. For obvious reasons don't know if Toronto is the best place to work on that sort of stuff.

One "cheap fast forward" I've had on my list is Brandon Duhaime. Former long-time linemate of Dewar with Minnesota (they were often referred to as Dewy 1 and Dewy 2 there), and the duo actually formed a line with Reaves for most of 22/23 after Reaves was traded there. He's basically a bigger/more physical version of Dewar while trading away a little offensive talent. But still very fast and has PK experience. I think he probably comes in a little more than I'd like to spend on a 4th liner especially with Reaves' contract on the books but still someone I could see Treliving going after, especially if Kampf is moved.

 

[herman]

I actually think Gustavsson will be a sneaky good add for a team somewhere this season but I'm not sure it'll be the Leafs. Gus has openly said it himself that a big thing he needs to work on is his "mental mindset" to be a more consistent goalie. He seems to have a hard time digging himself out of the lows of a season. For obvious reasons don't know if Toronto is the best place to work on that sort of stuff.

Alas.

One "cheap fast forward" I've had on my list is Brandon Duhaime. Former long-time linemate of Dewar with Minnesota (they were often referred to as Dewy 1 and Dewy 2 there), and the duo actually formed a line with Reaves for most of 22/23 after Reaves was traded there. He's basically a bigger/more physical version of Dewar while trading away a little offensive talent. But still very fast and has PK experience. I think he probably comes in a little more than I'd like to spend on a 4th liner especially with Reaves' contract on the books but still someone I could see Treliving going after, especially if Kampf is moved.

I missed out on this because I was filtering for righties! I'm down for a doo doo line.

I'm down with replacing Jarnkrok and Kampf if there are takers (okay with keeping them too), but I am hoping Minten is a decent enough Jarnkrok replacement.

If we don't get a C, I'd like to see Nylander at centre for a longer spell under new coaching.

 

[Frank E]

If we don't get a C, I'd like to see Nylander at centre for a longer spell under new coaching.

Yes, me too...as I've said previously, he's got his new fat deal now so he'd be more likely to embrace the challenge.

 

[Guilt Trip]

I actually think Gustavsson will be a sneaky good add for a team somewhere this season but I'm not sure it'll be the Leafs. Gus has openly said it himself that a big thing he needs to work on is his "mental mindset" to be a more consistent goalie. He seems to have a hard time digging himself out of the lows of a season. For obvious reasons don't know if Toronto is the best place to work on that sort of stuff.

Alas.

One "cheap fast forward" I've had on my list is Brandon Duhaime. Former long-time linemate of Dewar with Minnesota (they were often referred to as Dewy 1 and Dewy 2 there), and the duo actually formed a line with Reaves for most of 22/23 after Reaves was traded there. He's basically a bigger/more physical version of Dewar while trading away a little offensive talent. But still very fast and has PK experience. I think he probably comes in a little more than I'd like to spend on a 4th liner especially with Reaves' contract on the books but still someone I could see Treliving going after, especially if Kampf is moved.

I missed out on this because I was filtering for righties! I'm down for a doo doo line.

I'm down with replacing Jarnkrok and Kampf if there are takers (okay with keeping them too), but I am hoping Minten is a decent enough Jarnkrok replacement.

If we don't get a C, I'd like to see Nylander at centre for a longer spell under new coaching.

Jarnkrok can go.  He's easily replaced by sometime making half of what he makes. I think Minten could be that guy. Same with Kampf.

 

[herman]

Yes, me too...as I've said previously, he's got his new fat deal now so he'd be more likely to embrace the challenge.

It would certainly make it a more worthwhile deal. I'm also curious to see how he fares without having to prop up Tavares' slowness.

Jarnkrok can go.  He's easily replaced by sometime making half of what he makes. I think Minten could be that guy. Same with Kampf.

Yeah, I think my hope is Minten can replace Jarnkrok's contributions. Jarnkrok did get a bit of a bum deal trying to carry Domi/Robertson/Holmberg, and then got injured every time he was getting warm, but if we can get that same level of production from an ELC like Minten, that's surplus value. Cowan/Minten/Holmberg in place of Jarnkrok/Kampf would help, but those kids won't be 82 game players off the hop like Marner/Nylander.

I do think Kampf would excel under Berube though. It would make me laugh to see a third line of Tavares-Kampf-Kapanen/Lafferty.

 

[cw]

Enjoying Capfriendly's Armchair GM feature while I still can. This one was all about "can we afford to acquire William Karlsson from Vegas AND still address the D+G?". Honestly I thought the answer to this would be no and was pleasantly surprised:

Starting out by having to clear salary. That's Kampf and Jarnkrok. Kampf to me is generally a goner in any offseason projection.

The part I'm not clear on is how?

Buyout is not a practical option
https://www.capfriendly.com/buyout-calculator/david-kampf
because a NHL player at the minimum to replace him would cost the Leafs more on their cap than Kampf does.

Who wants to trade for that price performance? No one.

so you'd have to trade him plus give the receiving team some pick or a talent asset to eat that deal.

If I equate to recent retained salary trades, they were getting roughly a 4th rounder for a million bucks of cap space for one season. This contract has 3 seasons of earning close to a million more than his performance. So the ante up is north of a 4th rounder.

It seems to be ugly no matter which way I look at it.

Apparently, Kampf was the most fit Leaf and played well winning the World Championship. Maybe that helps them move him. Doesn't look easy. Maybe he can bounce back some.

Jarnkrok I generally have had more time for. He can fill in the top 6. Not bad at faceoffs. Has a defensive conscience. Seems smart. PKs. PP. 6th in Leafs goal scoring since he got here. .48ppg with 14.75 mins/ice time. But his drop in scoring production in the playoffs has to be a concern. It happened in Nashville too. I think he'd be easier to move.

Both have M-NTCs

 

[CarltonTheBear]

The part I'm not clear on is how?

Well simply put I don't think either would be that difficult to move. Both are legitimate full time NHLers any coach in hockey would trust putting on the ice and neither contracts both in terms of AAV or term are necessarily anchors. Their contracts would really only be seen as problematic on teams who have 4 forwards already taking up 53% of the salary cap next season.

Of the two Kampf is certainly a little more overpaid, I never liked his contract to begin with, but he's also a legitimately higher end 4C in the league. With the right bottom-6 configuration he'd do fine, that just isn't happening here with Reaves stapled onto his wing which basically negates all his 5-on-5 defensive value. I've already said this but I wouldn't be surprised at all if New Jersey came calling if he was made available due to the Keefe connection.

There's absolutely nothing wrong with Jarnkrok's contract really. Even just using his most recent point pace, which was a little lower than typical, a 3rd liner who can get 15 goals and 35 points while also providing above average defensive and penalty killing ability would almost certainly get more than $2.1mil this offseason. For example per the Daily Faceoff Jordan Martinook is currently projected to get a 2-year, $2.8mil AAV contract and they're pretty similar players I'd say. If for whatever reason the Leafs were forced to move him for cap relief you're more likely to get something in return than need to give up a sweetener.

 

[cw]

The part I'm not clear on is how?

Well simply put I don't think either would be that difficult to move. Both are legitimate full time NHLers any coach in hockey would trust putting on the ice and neither contracts both in terms of AAV or term are necessarily anchors. Their contracts would really only be seen as problematic on teams who have 4 forwards already taking up 53% of the salary cap next season.

Of the two Kampf is certainly a little more overpaid, I never liked his contract to begin with, but he's also a legitimately higher end 4C in the league. With the right bottom-6 configuration he'd do fine, that just isn't happening here with Reaves stapled onto his wing which basically negates all his 5-on-5 defensive value. I've already said this but I wouldn't be surprised at all if New Jersey came calling if he was made available due to the Keefe connection.

I'd likely be very happy with that. I think that money could be better spent.
But they'd better have someone lined up to fill that role.
I'm not sure about Dewar for that.

There's absolutely nothing wrong with Jarnkrok's contract really. Even just using his most recent point pace, which was a little lower than typical, a 3rd liner who can get 15 goals and 35 points while also providing above average defensive and penalty killing ability would almost certainly get more than $2.1mil this offseason. For example per the Daily Faceoff Jordan Martinook is currently projected to get a 2-year, $2.8mil AAV contract and they're pretty similar players I'd say. If for whatever reason the Leafs were forced to move him for cap relief you're more likely to get something in return than need to give up a sweetener.

They called Kerfoot a Swiss Army knife. I think Jarnkrok is better and as versatile at a more economical cap hit.

 

[CarltonTheBear]

I'd likely be very happy with that. I think that money could be better spent.
But they'd better have someone lined up to fill that role.
I'm not sure about Dewar for that.

I like Dewar in that spot. I always thought it was a little odd of the Leafs to give up a 4th rounder for him if they weren't going to play him in his natural position at 4C. Not that a 4th rounder is a high price to pay but it means a little more to the Leafs when we're already so devoid of draft picks. They also have Holmberg as a back-up. Ultimately if they did acquire someone else to push Dewar to the wing I wouldn't really bat an eye but I'd have him penciled in there to start, and reassess that later on.

 

[cw]

I'd likely be very happy with that. I think that money could be better spent.
But they'd better have someone lined up to fill that role.
I'm not sure about Dewar for that.

I like Dewar in that spot. I always thought it was a little odd of the Leafs to give up a 4th rounder for him if they weren't going to play him in his natural position at 4C. Not that a 4th rounder is a high price to pay but it means a little more to the Leafs when we're already so devoid of draft picks. They also have Holmberg as a back-up. Ultimately if they did acquire someone else to push Dewar to the wing I wouldn't really bat an eye but I'd have him penciled in there to start, and reassess that later on.

I'm not very familiar with Dewar. I guess I was focused on other things when he was on the ice.
I had little knowledge of him before.
That's good to know. Encouraging.

I'm not sure he's ideal but I don't mind Holmberg either. I thought he took a step in the right direction last season. Flashed some versatility.

 

[CarltonTheBear]

I'm not sure he's ideal but I don't mind Holmberg either. I thought he took a step in the right direction last season. Flashed some versatility.

Holmberg to me is like the world's greatest 13th forward. I'm still not a big believer in him as a regular roster player though.

 

[dappleganger]

Holmberg hasn't shown that much in the minutes he has received. His most attractive feature thus far is his cap hit.