Armchair GM Thread 2024-25

[herman]

Probable plan:

Current cap hit with all the NHLers (inc Dewar/Hakanpaa) and Cowan up and Timmins down: $88,874,334/$88,000,000

To make Opening Day cap:
Trade Jarnkrok for a pick (-2.1M) and sign Pacioretty for exactly $1,225,666/1 yr so Leafs are at $88M on the dot
LTIR Dewar/Hakanpaa to create 2.65M in LTIR space

Then call up Rifai (775k) or Timmins (1.1M) and sign Lorentz to league min (775k)

When Hakanpaa is activated, there is already either an injury or Cowan should obviously be sent down + send down the extra D. When Dewar is back, trade Kampf or demote Reaves.

No need to lose Holmberg or Robertson (unless someone is offering a 1st rder).

 

[cabber24]

Probable plan:

Current cap hit with all the NHLers (inc Dewar/Hakanpaa) and Cowan up and Timmins down: $88,874,334/$88,000,000

To make Opening Day cap:
Trade Jarnkrok for a pick (-2.1M) and sign Pacioretty for exactly $1,225,666/1 yr so Leafs are at $88M on the dot
LTIR Dewar/Hakanpaa to create 2.65M in LTIR space

Then call up Rifai (775k) or Timmins (1.1M) and sign Lorentz to league min (775k)

When Hakanpaa is activated, there is already either an injury or Cowan should obviously be sent down + send down the extra D. When Dewar is back, trade Kampf or demote Reaves.

No need to lose Holmberg or Robertson (unless someone is offering a 1st rder).

I said before, I rather have 2 of the above than 1 Jankrok. He's 33. Also, who knows someone else will probably end up the LTIR before Dewar/Hakanpaa are ready to return.

LTIR current candidates: Matthews/Nylander/Tavares...

 

[Guilt Trip]

Probable plan:

Current cap hit with all the NHLers (inc Dewar/Hakanpaa) and Cowan up and Timmins down: $88,874,334/$88,000,000

To make Opening Day cap:
Trade Jarnkrok for a pick (-2.1M) and sign Pacioretty for exactly $1,225,666/1 yr so Leafs are at $88M on the dot
LTIR Dewar/Hakanpaa to create 2.65M in LTIR space

Then call up Rifai (775k) or Timmins (1.1M) and sign Lorentz to league min (775k)

When Hakanpaa is activated, there is already either an injury or Cowan should obviously be sent down + send down the extra D. When Dewar is back, trade Kampf or demote Reaves.

No need to lose Holmberg or Robertson (unless someone is offering a 1st rder).

Jarnkrok needs to go.

 

[princedpw]

Probable plan:

Current cap hit with all the NHLers (inc Dewar/Hakanpaa) and Cowan up and Timmins down: $88,874,334/$88,000,000

To make Opening Day cap:
Trade Jarnkrok for a pick (-2.1M) and sign Pacioretty for exactly $1,225,666/1 yr so Leafs are at $88M on the dot
LTIR Dewar/Hakanpaa to create 2.65M in LTIR space

Then call up Rifai (775k) or Timmins (1.1M) and sign Lorentz to league min (775k)

When Hakanpaa is activated, there is already either an injury or Cowan should obviously be sent down + send down the extra D. When Dewar is back, trade Kampf or demote Reaves.

No need to lose Holmberg or Robertson (unless someone is offering a 1st rder).

I owe you a beer if this happens.

 

[herman]

So I ran those scenarios on PuckGM before I found out about Mermis' surgery. It might add some wonk if he is considered on the Leafs roster (injured before sent down); this means Pacioretty might need to sign for less? or we sign Lorentz first (or leave up a slightly higher paid prospect to push the cap) and then sign Pacioretty once the LTIRs are on the board.

 

[herman]

https://x.com/PPPLeafs/status/1841086684391145612

 

[CarltonTheBear]

Thinking you could get Knies on a bridge deal at around $2mil is probably optimistic. Just some of the most recent comparable-ish players/signings:

Dawson Mercer, $4mil AAV x 3 years, averaged 43 points / 82 games through his ELC

Kirill Marchenko, $3.85mil AAV x 3 years, averaged 40 points / 82 games through his ELC

Cole Sillinger, $2.25mil AAV x 2 years, averaged 27 points / 82 games through his ELC

Cole Perfetti, $3.25mil AAV x 2 years, averaged 43 points / 82 games through his ELC

So on a 2 or 3 year deal I'm thinking it's somewhere in the $3-4mil range at this point, assuming that Knies has even just a reasonable bump in his point pace.

Regardless of that though I'm definitely in favour of going the long-term route here.

 

[cw]

Thinking you could get Knies on a bridge deal at around $2mil is probably optimistic. Just some of the most recent comparable-ish players/signings:

Dawson Mercer, $4mil AAV x 3 years, averaged 43 points / 82 games through his ELC

Kirill Marchenko, $3.85mil AAV x 3 years, averaged 40 points / 82 games through his ELC

Cole Sillinger, $2.25mil AAV x 2 years, averaged 27 points / 82 games through his ELC

Cole Perfetti, $3.25mil AAV x 2 years, averaged 43 points / 82 games through his ELC

So on a 2 or 3 year deal I'm thinking it's somewhere in the $3-4mil range at this point, assuming that Knies has even just a reasonable bump in his point pace.

Regardless of that though I'm definitely in favour of going the long-term route here.

Those higher numbers seem more realistic to me.

 

[herman]

Not a direct comp: Zach Hyman UFA 7x5.5M (6.75%) is about 6M in today?s cap after a few years at a 40 pt pace with Toronto?s top players.

I think Knies clears 50 pts eventually.

8x6-7 looks outrageous, but I think he can easily meet and surpass it as the cap rises (sideyes avian flu, world war 3 nervously).

 

[CarltonTheBear]

8x6-7 looks outrageous, but I think he can easily meet and surpass it as the cap rises (sideyes avian flu, world war 3 nervously).

Beniers, Jarvis, and Guenther all recently signed post-ELC deals in the $7-8mil range for 7 or 8 years. I don't think Knies is really on the level of any of them.

Unless I missed something (just realizing none of the capfriendly replacements can even hold a candle to their signings page with the amount of customization filters it had) Anton Lundell and Quinton Byfield are the only other two forwards to sign big extensions post-ELC since July 1st this year.

Lundell, 12th overall pick in 2020, was coming off 3 years where he largely held down the 3C spot for Florida while scoring at a 42-point / 82 game pace. Pretty decent number considering his usage and role. He signed an 6 year extension with a $5mil AAV.

Byfield, 2nd overall pick in 2020, signed his 5-year, $6.25mil AAV extension after finally breaking out in his 3rd ELC year. He went from 10 points in 40 games in his rookie season to 22 points in 53 games in season 2 and then 55 points in 80 games in year 3 while largely playing wing on LA's top line. That's the exact type of role Knies is expected to play this season and it wouldn't be a shock to see him flirt with 50 points as well in his final ELC year. Worth noting though Byfield is finally being moved back to C full-time this season after the Dubois trade so that adds a bit to his value.

So based on all those comps I'd say that on a 2-3 year deal Knies would be looking at something in the 3's. On a 5-6 year deal he'd be looking at something in the mid-to-high 5's. A 7-8 year deal would push him into the mid-to-high 6's.

 

[herman]

8x6-7 looks outrageous, but I think he can easily meet and surpass it as the cap rises (sideyes avian flu, world war 3 nervously).

Beniers, Jarvis, and Guenther all recently signed post-ELC deals in the $7-8mil range for 7 or 8 years. I don't think Knies is really on the level of any of them.

[...]

So based on all those comps I'd say that on a 2-3 year deal Knies would be looking at something in the 3's. On a 5-6 year deal he'd be looking at something in the mid-to-high 5's. A 7-8 year deal would push him into the mid-to-high 6's.

So... bingo? I should specify, that's 8 years @ 6-7M AAV

 

[CarltonTheBear]

As a little bit of further context this is where those mentioned players were ranked in the Athletic best players and prospects under 23 list last month:

9. Berniers (tier 3)
25. Jarvis (tier 4)
27. Byfield (tier 5)
30. Guenther
34. Lundell
37. Knies

Byfield probably got the most team friendly deal out of the bunch of these guys, albeit only for 5 years. That's the bonus of young stars struggling in their 1st and/or 2nd NHL seasons though.

 

[cw]

So based on all those comps I'd say that on a 2-3 year deal Knies would be looking at something in the 3's. On a 5-6 year deal he'd be looking at something in the mid-to-high 5's. A 7-8 year deal would push him into the mid-to-high 6's.

I think those are in the ballpark

 

[CarltonTheBear]

Was looking through some projected line-ups to see if anyone has a 3C that they could spare. Found some interesting names. A couple of vets who are currently projected to start on their teams 4th lines are Alex Iafallo and Scott Laughton (remember when Philly apparently wanted a 1st for him lol).

LA's been a common Liljegren-trade suggestion after the Doughty injury and a guy there that could possibly be worth looking into is Alex Turcotte. 5th overall pick in 2019 that's taken a little bit to become a NHL regular due to injury/performance issues but seems to finally be ready for a full-time lineup spot. He's signed for 3 seasons including this one at league minimum, so there's potential to have a ton of value there if he can hold down a 3C spot. And with Kopitar-Byfield-Danault ahead of him that won't be happening there anytime soon.

Was very surprised to see Yanni Gourde projected to start the season on Seattle's 4th line behind Beniers, Stephenson, and Wright. He's in the final year of a deal that's paying him a little too much right now with a cap hit just over $5mil but that'd be a very intriguing option at 3C if we could somehow make the cap hit work. Problem is Seattle is fairly set on the right-side D with Larsson-Montour-Borgen so if Lily is the cap causality he wouldn't make any sense here.

 

[herman]

There isn't too much alignment with the teams that have 3Cs to spare and teams that would be attracted to a young NHL RD without heavy physical presence. The ones that might have earlier in the offseason already made big bids for top 4 RD (Montour, Roy).

I saw a good suggestion from one of the Leaf twitter folks that showcasing Liljegren alongside McCabe is probably better than scratching him and tanking what value is left. I'm more inclined to do that and skim from the bottom 6 forward pile, than to try to open cap space through a Liljegren trade. 25-26 years old was around the time Gustav Forsling, another medium-sized Swedish defenseman started to find his footing on a team that converted to rush puck instead of strict possession. Of course Forsling has better wheels and a silly shot (and a much stronger regular partner), but Liljegren is one of the best 2+ line passers on the team and has been playing alongside slop most of the time. He's at 196 NHL games played and it's been hard for him to build routine and momentum due to coaching/GMing decisions.

[youtube]_IwYEkfmyXQ[/youtube]

 

[CarltonTheBear]

Liljegren is one of the best 2+ line passers on the team and has been playing alongside slop most of the time.

Liljegren's most common 5-on-5 forwards linemates in his career:

23/24: Matthews, Nylander, Tavares, Bertuzzi, Domi
22/23: Nylander, Marner, Tavares, Bunting, Matthews
21/22: Matthews, Bunting, Tavares, Nylander, Marner

 

[Guru Tugginmypuddah]

Liljegren is one of the best 2+ line passers on the team and has been playing alongside slop most of the time.

Liljegren's most common 5-on-5 forwards linemates in his career:

23/24: Matthews, Nylander, Tavares, Bertuzzi, Domi
22/23: Nylander, Marner, Tavares, Bunting, Matthews
21/22: Matthews, Bunting, Tavares, Nylander, Marner

Rekt.

 

[herman]

I think he had most of his minutes with Giordano (wheels falling off szn)?

https://x.com/TLNdc/status/1844814697394258086

 

[bustaheims]

I think he had most of his minutes with Giordano (wheels falling off szn)?

https://twitter.com/TLNdc/status/1844814697394258086

https://x.com/darrendreger/status/1844826318161985665

 

[herman]

I think he had most of his minutes with Giordano (wheels falling off szn)?

https://twitter.com/TLNdc/status/1844814697394258086

https://twitter.com/darrendreger/status/1844826318161985665

Who should we believe? Mouthpiece of the GMS or mouthpiece of the agents?