bustaheims
Well-known member
herman said:
I tend to lean towards the more established mouthpiece.
Armchair GM Thread 2024-25
- Thread starter herman
- Start date
I tend to lean towards the more established mouthpiece.
herman said:
Maybe neither
We can believe the cap & LTIR
When the flow of cap dollars off LTIR exceeds the flow of dollars onto LTIR, they'll have to make a move.
If OEL the top 4 D continues to play well, they have lots of depth for 5/6 dmen
Holmberg might be making a case for 3rd line center. His faceoffs in preseason & first two NHL games is above 50%. Berube seems to like his defensive play. If he starts scoring ...
They have excess wingers.
Maybe Liljegren and a forward can land them a better center when LTIR forces their hand.
herman
Well-known member
This coming offseason: I don't think Rantanen is moving, unless this Colorado dumpster fire of a season start spirals into a garbage fire tornado and the locker room turns on itself.
I do think it is possible to re-sign Marner AND sign UFA-Bennett with the Tavares money coming down (probably significantly at this point). Bennett's point production is topping out at <50 pts so far, but his playoff production is clutch. 6M x 5 with the rising cap isn't too crazy (just a touch rich?). But I kind of want that allocated more towards the Sam Bennett we have at home (Matthew Knies).
Knies-Matthews-Domi
McMann-Minten (or UFA 2C)-Nylander
Bennett-Tavares(cheap)-Cowan
Lorentz-Quillan-Grebyonkin
vs
Knies-Matthews-Marner
McMann-Domi-Nylander
Minten-Tavares(cheap)-Cowan
Lorentz-Quillan-Grebyonkin
I do think it is possible to re-sign Marner AND sign UFA-Bennett with the Tavares money coming down (probably significantly at this point). Bennett's point production is topping out at <50 pts so far, but his playoff production is clutch. 6M x 5 with the rising cap isn't too crazy (just a touch rich?). But I kind of want that allocated more towards the Sam Bennett we have at home (Matthew Knies).
Knies-Matthews-Domi
McMann-Minten (or UFA 2C)-Nylander
Bennett-Tavares(cheap)-Cowan
Lorentz-Quillan-Grebyonkin
vs
Knies-Matthews-Marner
McMann-Domi-Nylander
Minten-Tavares(cheap)-Cowan
Lorentz-Quillan-Grebyonkin
herman
Well-known member
Too late for something that starts with 5, I think. His agent is not going to even take the calls unless it starts with a high 6 for max term.
I am so skeptical of Minten as a 2C. He doesn't have enough offensive talent. He's so much more likely to be a decent 4C.
Ozzie
Member
I would rather have Knies at $5.8m x 8 and Bennett at $7m x 4 and let Marner walk.
Playoff Knies plus Playoff Bennett are significantly more powerful contributions than Playoff Marner.
We already have enough regular season listless pretty boys on this team.
I see Matthews get invigorated when Marner is sidelined. Domi, Knies and others have brought out the beast in him while Marner doesn't provide the same emotional spark. Kind of lame actually.
Playoff Knies plus Playoff Bennett are significantly more powerful contributions than Playoff Marner.
We already have enough regular season listless pretty boys on this team.
I see Matthews get invigorated when Marner is sidelined. Domi, Knies and others have brought out the beast in him while Marner doesn't provide the same emotional spark. Kind of lame actually.
Ozzie
Member
Knies is doing this year what Nylander did last year...... play ridiculously well (.....until Leaf management comes to the table and re-signs him for max pay max term right as the performance is peaking). It shows Knies can shine when he needs to. So can Nylander.
Notice Marner is not doing anything special this year. Because when it's time to shine he gets the yips. Contract years are great tests of fortitude.
Notice Marner is not doing anything special this year. Because when it's time to shine he gets the yips. Contract years are great tests of fortitude.
Guru Tugginmypuddah
Well-known member
Marner has 12 points in 11 games.
ZBBM
Well-known member
I'm glad Ozzie is here and his posts are well written and fun to read but what the hell.
IJustLurkHere
Member
If I were Knies, at 6 I think I'd just bet on myself to continue producing. I think we're past the point where there's any discount for early signing.
Wingers who got 6 last year included Tyler Tiffoli (33 g, 32 yo, $6M x 4), Owen Tippett (28g, 25yo, $6.2M x 8), Tom Wilson(WTF, 29yo x 7), (26g, 75pts, $6.5Mx7). Not a winger, but I think Byfield is an interesting comp (big guy, 20 goal scorer, 22 at signing a $6.25 x 5 yr) contract.
If I were Knies I'd be pretty confident of putting myself in 6+ territory, and aiming for more. That may well be where he ends up, but looking at young guys signing for term, Byfield is probably the low end of what he'll be aiming for right now.
Andy007
Active member
I actually think he's played pretty well this year but the point Ozzie is making is that he hasn't gone into "beast mode" like Nylander and Knies in their respective "contract" years, and 1 goal in 12 games despite getting the most ice time and playing with the team's best players could be sufficient fodder for that argument.
herman
Well-known member
Yeah we’re bordering on 7+x8y (Slafkovsky deal) I think, unless they bridge. Now the last time Treliving bridged a 1W it backfired into a trade request.
So 4x3 - 6x6 - 7.5x8?
IJustLurkHere
Member
I think both sides just wait it out at this point. If I'm Knies I sign for $7.5 x 5... but if I'm the Leafs, that's a BIG reach.
If you take the deals for wingers at/above what you implied @ 6 you've got Hagel, $6.5Mx 8 as a 24yo, and he scored 75 pts (36 goals). Next winger up from the last 12 months is Seth Jarvis - 22yo signing, so he'd be on my radar as Knies agent, 33g, 67 pts... $7.9M x 8 years?
If you're trying to get him right now, you're looking at Byfield (Knies says no), Mathew Beniers (7.1 x7) or Jarvis kind of money... Right now Knies has 6g, 1a in 11 g. Let him cool off and don't sign him to 40g money... or, wait till June, and sign him to 40g money, but only if it turns out he doesn't cool off and really is a 40g guy.
The opportunity to get the $7-8M guy for $5M has passed.
Marner and Matthews have created a lot of chances but for whatever reason, Matthews hasn't been finishing like he usually does. He's just plain fanned on a bunch of opportunities, shot others just wide and of course hit some posts. Marner could easily have another 5 or 6 points if Matthews hit on some of his chances. Would that qualify for beast mode - say 18 points instead of 12? In the last game he made a great defensive play with that slide early in the third, then went "beast" along the boards before the Matthews en goal. Plus good penalty killing. He's playing really well.
With Knies, time will tell if he keeps it up for the whole season. He looks great so far.
Guilt Trip
Well-known member
Let me know when Nylander goes into beast mode in the playoffs because it hasn't happened for any of them yet.
Ozzie
Member
This is EXACTLY what I mean.
Marner is on pace for a 90 point season. Very impressive regular season, as expected. Not exceptional for him.
Nylander last season went into "Beast Mode" and had a career season and everyone could feel he had kicked it up one or two gears.
Knies early on is indicating the same thing. Beast!
[I'm about to hit Post Reply and Marner just got the first goal of the Blues game.....lol.... lets hope he goes into Beast Mode this year too.....or better yet in the Playoffs. Hope!]
Andy007
Active member
I'm not sure how this even correlates to anything I said, but just so I'm clear, you're randomly referring to and knocking the guy who keeps scoring all of the big playoff goals, in significantly less playing time with much inferior linemates than "any of them" ? Cool.....
Ozzie
Member
I refer you to the last two playoff games played by this team where 100% of the goal production (and it was all 'clutch' goal production in very tight games) was from Nylander. He came back from injury and was the entire goal machine.
2021 against Montreal he also was by far the best producing Leaf on the ice. He got 5 goals vs the next best of the Core5 who got 1.
Guess how many Marner got in the 7 games? Let me give you a guess.... it rhymes with Nero.
Nylander is the most consistently producing Leaf in the playoffs in this 'Matthews Era'.
OldTimeHockey
Active member
Hold on a second here. Do we really think that Knies is in "beast mode"? Really? Because he's cleaning up the trash that Matthews and Marner create?
He's playing well, but come on. He has 7 points in 12 games. Yes 6 are goals, but some of those are a result of who he's playing with as opposed to "beast mode".
I'm all for getting him signed, but I don't know that he's more valuable than Byfield. Yes Byfield is off to a slow start, but I don't think you can judge either players based on a 12 game showing.
He's playing well, but come on. He has 7 points in 12 games. Yes 6 are goals, but some of those are a result of who he's playing with as opposed to "beast mode".
I'm all for getting him signed, but I don't know that he's more valuable than Byfield. Yes Byfield is off to a slow start, but I don't think you can judge either players based on a 12 game showing.