Armchair GM Thread 2024-25

[bustaheims]

Who should we believe? Mouthpiece of the GMS or mouthpiece of the agents?

I tend to lean towards the more established mouthpiece.

 

[cw]

I think he had most of his minutes with Giordano (wheels falling off szn)?

https://twitter.com/TLNdc/status/1844814697394258086

https://twitter.com/darrendreger/status/1844826318161985665

Who should we believe? Mouthpiece of the GMS or mouthpiece of the agents?

Maybe neither
We can believe the cap & LTIR
When the flow of cap dollars off LTIR exceeds the flow of dollars onto LTIR, they'll have to make a move.

If OEL the top 4 D continues to play well, they have lots of depth for 5/6 dmen

Holmberg might be making a case for 3rd line center. His faceoffs in preseason & first two NHL games is above 50%. Berube seems to like his defensive play. If he starts scoring ...

They have excess wingers.

Maybe Liljegren and a forward can land them a better center when LTIR forces their hand.

 

[Bill_Berg]

Good goaltending and trade pieces that aren't first round picks? What alternate reality is this!?

 

[herman]

This coming offseason: I don't think Rantanen is moving, unless this Colorado dumpster fire of a season start spirals into a garbage fire tornado and the locker room turns on itself.

I do think it is possible to re-sign Marner AND sign UFA-Bennett with the Tavares money coming down (probably significantly at this point). Bennett's point production is topping out at <50 pts so far, but his playoff production is clutch. 6M x 5 with the rising cap isn't too crazy (just a touch rich?). But I kind of want that allocated more towards the Sam Bennett we have at home (Matthew Knies).

Knies-Matthews-Domi
McMann-Minten (or UFA 2C)-Nylander
Bennett-Tavares(cheap)-Cowan
Lorentz-Quillan-Grebyonkin
vs
Knies-Matthews-Marner
McMann-Domi-Nylander
Minten-Tavares(cheap)-Cowan
Lorentz-Quillan-Grebyonkin

 

[herman]

Digging into some (old) comps for Matt Knies:

Chris Kreider
Turned pro after 3 seasons with Boston College and got airdropped into the playoffs for 5G + 2A in an 18 game run in 2012 as a 21 year old.

3 year ELC | nothing much in the regular season (about the same as Knies last season), but very strong playoffs
2 years 2.475M AAV (3.59% CH%) | ~20G & ~45 pts per year
4 years 4.625M AAV (6.36% CH%) | ~25G & ~50 pts per year but marred with injury
7 years 6.5M AAV (7.4% CH%) | broke through for 52 G at 30 years old, and sitting just under 40G recently, ~75pts


Brandon Saad
3 year ELC + 1 yr slide | broke 20G and 50 pts in the final year
6 years 6M AAV (8.57% CH%) | broke 30G once, and hovered a little over 50 pts
5 years 4.5M AAV (5.1% CH%) | tapering down to 20ish G and 50 pts

Very modest playoff contributions

Josh Anderson (lol) not going to bother

--
My proposal of 7 years at 5M AAV is maybe a touch low for Knies and his agent to bite on the term this early even though it is quite rich for his current point totals. Let's go 5.7ish M AAV over 7 years for a 40M contract to sweeten the deal (~6-6.5% of CH%).

Too late for something that starts with 5, I think. His agent is not going to even take the calls unless it starts with a high 6 for max term.

 

[princedpw]

This coming offseason: I don't think Rantanen is moving, unless this Colorado dumpster fire of a season start spirals into a garbage fire tornado and the locker room turns on itself.

I do think it is possible to re-sign Marner AND sign UFA-Bennett with the Tavares money coming down (probably significantly at this point). Bennett's point production is topping out at <50 pts so far, but his playoff production is clutch. 6M x 5 with the rising cap isn't too crazy (just a touch rich?). But I kind of want that allocated more towards the Sam Bennett we have at home (Matthew Knies).

Knies-Matthews-Domi
McMann-Minten (or UFA 2C)-Nylander
Bennett-Tavares(cheap)-Cowan
Lorentz-Quillan-Grebyonkin
vs
Knies-Matthews-Marner
McMann-Domi-Nylander
Minten-Tavares(cheap)-Cowan
Lorentz-Quillan-Grebyonkin

I am so skeptical of Minten as a 2C. He doesn't have enough offensive talent. He's so much more likely to be a decent 4C.

 

[Ozzie]

I would rather have Knies at $5.8m x 8 and Bennett at $7m x 4 and let Marner walk.

Playoff Knies plus Playoff Bennett are significantly more powerful contributions than Playoff Marner.

We already have enough regular season listless pretty boys on this team.

I see Matthews get invigorated when Marner is sidelined. Domi, Knies and others have brought out the beast in him while Marner doesn't provide the same emotional spark. Kind of lame actually.