Armchair GM Thread 2024-25

[cw]

As for the NMC point, players do have a right to stick with the NMC, but it doesn't mean management can't also push the topic. Also, in the words of Brian Burke: I didn't sign it.

It's true. Treliving didn't sign Mitch to the NMC. He could take a page out of Burke's book (literally) and say if Mitch doesn't provide a list he'll sit in the press box.

That's what Burke did with Kaberle when Tomas invoked his no trade clause. Kaberle and his agent gave one team, Boston, a day later.

There's zero chance Tre is going to do that. Could you imagine the shit storm that would erupt if word got out that he was a "healthy scratch" for not waiving?

I heartily agree.

Times have changed. Prospective UFAs desiring a NMC (that so many of them are now getting) would probably have a problem with that and just sign with teams that honour their contracts.

The other risks are a grievance with the NHLPA (it is like constructive dismissal) and some of his teammates might not be too happy to see him treated that way - the team is breaking it's word/contract.

 

[IJustLurkHere]

I think it is a very delicate situation. LeBrun reported no list of teams coming from his agent.
A few in the media have reported that the Leafs have not made any inquiries about trading him.

Marner is a newly wed. Both his and her families are from the Toronto area. With his contract, he's not moving twice. Maybe starting a family is underway. I think he's pretty tight with his teammates - some of them won't want him gone.

If Marner gets wind that the Leafs are floating him in a potential trade, what are their chances of changing their minds next summer when/if he's a UFA and they're looking at the 3rd most free cap space among contending teams?

I think this is a very delicate situation and the Leafs better be careful or they'll lose their top playoff scorer for nothing.

The team and the players can control a lot of the PR on this. If they don't want to lose him for nothing, they better reel in the media narrative, protect their asset and do it soon. At the very least, hopefully, they've communicated to calm his camp down. The longer it goes on, the more likely that it does not end well for the team. Worst case for Marner is he fulfils his contract and goes to another team who really wants him that he likes the most next summer and probably for a BIG bundle of dough. Some folks were mad at Sundin for declining to be traded but a lot of that passed. What is his crime? Having the team honour the deal they signed. If the team didn't want that, they should have done the deal differently.

Tavares has also indicated again that he's sticking with his NMC: a contractual right he also negotiated in good faith.

If I were to put myself in Marner's shoes, what I'd want is transparency from the team and assurance that the media narrative can be ignored.

i.e. Treliving should be (and likely is) talking to other GMs to establish the reality of any trade value. He should make sure Marner is aware of this in case it leaks, while being transparent that at this stage that's just GM diligence and the business of hockey. A lot of things have to come together to trade a $10M plus NMC player. Journalists chase leaks, so make sure if something leaks, Marner knew about it before it happened and there shouldn't be any breach of trust.
Treliving should be (and likely is) checking in on where Marner's thinking is relating to extensions and trades, and the answer to that likely isn't black & white.
Treliving should be (and likely is) assuring Marner that they won't negotiate through media, so if some writer puts out a hack piece or the talkback radio is nasty, it's just noise.

As long as Marner and Treliving have a healthy dialogue, this situation has a bunch of moving parts, but isn't really all that delicate.

Unfortunately for us fans, it probably means we don't get any meaningful updates into what's happening until a) an extension, b) a trade or c) next training camp starts. Because anything in the media on Marner likely is just noise.

 

[herman]

Should we get into the bidding war to trade for Martin Necas?
https://x.com/rinkratreport/status/1794364007534711052
https://x.com/noahstrang_/status/1794148084668371372

 

[Bullfrog]

There's zero chance Tre is going to do that. Could you imagine the shit storm that would erupt if word got out that he was a "healthy scratch" for not waiving?

I heartily agree.

Times have changed. Prospective UFAs desiring a NMC (that so many of them are now getting) would probably have a problem with that and just sign with teams that honour their contracts.

The other risks are a grievance with the NHLPA (it is like constructive dismissal) and some of his teammates might not be too happy to see him treated that way - the team is breaking it's word/contract.
[/quote]

If I remember correctly, the NHL requires a team to put forth their best roster. There's wiggle room for resting players, scratches for poor play, etc., but sitting a healthy 90-point player with Selke votes for anything more than a game will raise eyebrows.

 

[princedpw]

Another thing to remember on Marner is that fans have very short memories.  If he leads the leafs in scoring next year (entirely possible or even likely if he?s healthy), fans will appreciate his contributions?

The worst time to make a trade is when you feel you have to.  Hard to imagine a scenario in which trading Marner makes the team better.

One thing I would be excited about for next year is a full season of Marner/Matthews/Nylander split across 3 lines to see how that works.

 

[dappleganger]

Who wouldn't want to see what effect Berube can have on Marner?

 

[herman]

https://twitter.com/thefourthperiod/status/1794497384300290326

There is no doubt in my mind Marner will be extremely disappointed if the Maple Leafs opt for a change, and he is entirely within his right to hold firm and exercise his NMC. However, if the Maple Leafs decide they want to explore the trade market and ask Marner for a list of teams he would waive his NMC for, it is my understanding he will consider his options, as I reported earlier this month. Teams like Nashville, Vegas, Chicago and Dallas are just four clubs I would keep an eye on, if/when Leafs GM Brad Treliving goes shopping.

One veteran forward the Maple Leafs may try to add this summer: David Perron.

 

[cabber24]

I read online a proposed Theodore and Hill for Marner, all similar ages and on expiring deals. I like it for the balance it gives the Leafs but I think it unbalances things in Vegas when they become cap-heavy upfront. Anyway, not Marner hate but a reallocation.

 

[Arn]

So is there any way we can have:

Knies - Matthews - XXXX
Stamkos - Nylander - XXXX
Tavares - XXXX - Marner

 

[Jolly good show chaps]

So is there any way we can have:

Knies - Matthews - XXXX
Stamkos - Nylander - XXXX
Tavares - XXXX - Marner

In the sense that Stamkos probably isn't leaving Tampa, no.

Might be able to have that lineup by calling up Minten and Cowan if Stamkos signs for something like $6m. Under the assumption that money will also need to be spent on a decent D (Pesce at $6m?) and goalies (Broissot and Jones at $4m combined?) this would probably mean ditching Jarnkrok, Reaves and Timmins, needing to resign Liljegren and Robertson on the cheap and a bargain basement bottom pair D. Not sure that's a route we'd want to go down.

Also, if Stamkos gets say $6m that probably means Tavares will probably want that next summer too. Though could always just let him go.

 

[bustaheims]

Also, if Stamkos gets say $6m that probably means Tavares will probably want that next summer too. Though could always just let him go.

Stamkos is coming off his 3rd straight 30+ goal, 75+ point season - basically, what he's been able to do every season he's been healthy. He hasn't shown many signs of decline yet, other than needing to move to the wing. He's going to get at least $6M, probably more, if he hits the market. Quite frankly, unless Tavares bottoms out next season, he's also likely to get a $6M+ contract offer from someone.

 

[Jolly good show chaps]

Also, if Stamkos gets say $6m that probably means Tavares will probably want that next summer too. Though could always just let him go.

Stamkos is coming off his 3rd straight 30+ goal, 75+ point season - basically, what he's been able to do every season he's been healthy. He hasn't shown many signs of decline yet, other than needing to move to the wing. He's going to get at least $6M, probably more, if he hits the market. Quite frankly, unless Tavares bottoms out next season, he's also likely to get a $6M+ contract offer from someone.

Yeah, I assumed if he didn't resign with Tampa that $6m to play at home might tempt him. Will be a bit of a hit in the wallet after a higher salary with no income tax.

 

[bustaheims]

Also, if Stamkos gets say $6m that probably means Tavares will probably want that next summer too. Though could always just let him go.

Stamkos is coming off his 3rd straight 30+ goal, 75+ point season - basically, what he's been able to do every season he's been healthy. He hasn't shown many signs of decline yet, other than needing to move to the wing. He's going to get at least $6M, probably more, if he hits the market. Quite frankly, unless Tavares bottoms out next season, he's also likely to get a $6M+ contract offer from someone.

Yeah, I assumed if he didn't resign with Tampa that $6m to play at home might tempt him. Will be a bit of a hit in the wallet after a higher salary with no income tax.

He?s almost certainly going to get an AAV of $8M+. He?ll be one of the most sought after UFAs if he hits the market.

 

[Jolly good show chaps]

Also, if Stamkos gets say $6m that probably means Tavares will probably want that next summer too. Though could always just let him go.

Stamkos is coming off his 3rd straight 30+ goal, 75+ point season - basically, what he's been able to do every season he's been healthy. He hasn't shown many signs of decline yet, other than needing to move to the wing. He's going to get at least $6M, probably more, if he hits the market. Quite frankly, unless Tavares bottoms out next season, he's also likely to get a $6M+ contract offer from someone.

Yeah, I assumed if he didn't resign with Tampa that $6m to play at home might tempt him. Will be a bit of a hit in the wallet after a higher salary with no income tax.

He?s almost certainly going to get an AAV of $8M+. He?ll be one of the most sought after UFAs if he hits the market.

In that case it's even more of a no to fitting him in with the upgrades needed in goal and defence without trading Marner.

 

[Joe S.]

So is there any way we can have:

Knies - Matthews - XXXX
Stamkos - Nylander - XXXX
Tavares - XXXX - Marner

Just to be a bit of a dick, and complaining about Marner not being a big game performer, Stamkos has 0 points in 8 career game 7s.

TB also won 1 of their 2 Covid cups without him.

 

[princedpw]

I think Stamkos will cost Toronto 20% more to sign here than Tampa ? so if Tampa doesn?t want him for a particular price, I?m not sure it will be a good deal for us.

Also, we just don?t need him as much as we need a goaltender, defense, and a 2/3 center.

 

[Zee]

I think Stamkos will cost Toronto 20% more to sign here than Tampa ? so if Tampa doesn?t want him for a particular price, I?m not sure it will be a good deal for us.

Also, we just don?t need him as much as we need a goaltender, defense, and a 2/3 center.

The only way I see Stamkos here is if he feels "disrespected" by Tampa's offer and decides to sign in Toronto to try and show Tampa up.  Same division, head to head etc.  Maybe they get him at a discounted rate because his motivation will be playing in his hometown, biggest market and stuffing it to Tampa.  Hey one can dream?

 

[Arn]

Yeah I was thinking it would really only be possible next season with a discount on what he could get.

But I was curious if there was any way to make it happen. Guess it might depend on the Marner thing, and then of course he could be signed before anything happens there.

 

[CarltonTheBear]

Spit-balling a "what if we cheap out on forwards (for now) and go big name shopping on D" idea:

Trade Kampf and Lily to recoup some draft picks, re-sign Dewar to $1mil deal, sign Skjei (or Montour) long-term for $7.5mil, sign Tanev medium term for $5mil, sign Stolarz (or Broissoit) medium term for $3.25mil:

Knies-Matthews-Nylander
McMann-Tavares-Marner
Cowan-Minten-Jarnkrok
Holmberg-Dewar-Tverberg
Reaves

Skjei-McCabe
Rielly-Tanev
Benoit-Timmins
Rifai

Stolarz
Woll

That's a 22-man roster with $1.7mil in cap space left. Some candidates to yo-yo with the Marlies in order to accrue more cap space on off days without the hassle of LTIR now. Reconsider whether a replacement is needed for Timmins or go shopping for a forward later on in the season.

 

[dappleganger]

Spit-balling a "what if we cheap out on forwards (for now) and go big name shopping on D" idea:

Trade Kampf and Lily to recoup some draft picks, re-sign Dewar to $1mil deal, sign Skjei (or Montour) long-term for $7.5mil, sign Tanev medium term for $5mil, sign Stolarz (or Broissoit) medium term for $3.25mil:

Knies-Matthews-Nylander
McMann-Tavares-Marner
Cowan-Minten-Jarnkrok
Holmberg-Dewar-Tverberg
Reaves

In the past, The Leafs have not been reluctant to throw a player with little NHL experience on the top line.

A first line of:

Cowan - Matthews - Marner?

I wonder...