Armchair GM Thread 2024-25

[herman]

I don't think staying close to Toronto is a priority for Marner, so Buffalo probably isn't a destination he'd have in mind.

A west coast or Sun Belt city with limited or no income taxation, where people don't know you're a hockey player on the street might appeal if he's laying down his godhood.
No income tax: Nashville, Seattle, Las Vegas, Florida/Tampa, Dallas
Low income tax: Colorado, Utah, St. Louis

Cross-reference with which teams are approaching a contention threshold, have a couple of good prospects on the cusp, while the team needs more assists, and has cap space: Nashville, Utah, Seattle?

A sign and trade after July 1 would set him and the recipient team up nicely: 1 775k year + 8 years doesn't change the cap hit, but will show up more palatably on their payroll ledger.

 

[Redleaf]

I don't think staying close to Toronto is a priority for Marner, so Buffalo probably isn't a destination he'd have in mind.

A west coast or Sun Belt city with limited or no income taxation, where people don't know you're a hockey player on the street might appeal if he's laying down his godhood.
No income tax: Nashville, Seattle, Las Vegas, Florida/Tampa, Dallas
Low income tax: Colorado, Utah, St. Louis

Cross-reference with which teams are approaching a contention threshold, have a couple of good prospects on the cusp, while the team needs more assists, and has cap space: Nashville, Utah, Seattle?

A sign and trade after July 1 would set him and the recipient team up nicely: 1 775k year + 8 years doesn't change the cap hit, but will show up more palatably on their payroll ledger.

Not that it matters all that much, but I think the comment about Toronto players being gods was something he was fond of.

 

[Bill_Berg]

I don't think staying close to Toronto is a priority for Marner, so Buffalo probably isn't a destination he'd have in mind.

A west coast or Sun Belt city with limited or no income taxation, where people don't know you're a hockey player on the street might appeal if he's laying down his godhood.
No income tax: Nashville, Seattle, Las Vegas, Florida/Tampa, Dallas
Low income tax: Colorado, Utah, St. Louis

Cross-reference with which teams are approaching a contention threshold, have a couple of good prospects on the cusp, while the team needs more assists, and has cap space: Nashville, Utah, Seattle?

A sign and trade after July 1 would set him and the recipient team up nicely: 1 775k year + 8 years doesn't change the cap hit, but will show up more palatably on their payroll ledger.

The more I think about a trade that is realistic and doesn't suck for us, the more I suspect Marner will be gone in free agency next year.

 

[cw]

A little over 13 months from now, Leafs cap space is projected to be $51.2 mil with only 8 players currently signed
2-3 RFAs are likely to re-sign: Woll, Knies & Holmberg
Marner (if he is still here), Tavares & McCabe will be notable UFAs

Significant change in the next 13 months is inevitable.
The UFA markets of recent times haven't seemed that great.
I would not want to bet tons on the UFA market to fix the roster.
With their shallow prospect assets, they will be more reliant on it than a number of teams.

When they want to attract UFAs, here's their roster in 13 months:
Matthews
Nylander
Rielly
Kampf
Jarnkrok
Reaves
Benoit
McMann
Knies (probably re-signed)
Woll (probably re-signed)
Holmberg (probably re-signed)
Marner UFA?
Tavares UFA?
Liljegren RFA?
Robertson RFA?
Domi UFA?
Bertuzzi UFA?
Cowan?
Minten?

Bertuzzi came, in my opinion, to help him get a better contract because he could play with the core 4 and put up some points. Does someone like him come to play with the core 2 in 13 months?
You need a good roster to attract UFAs. It is iffy at the moment 13 months out.

Let's say you are Marner and you're looking at the future. If you sign and trade, that hurts the team you are going to - who are giving up assets they could otherwise have in 13 months to help Marner's new team win if he goes there as a UFA. Right now, a bunch of folks are blaming Marner for the teams shortcomings and exploring trades to Nashville, etc. In the last 8 years, he's a top 10 NHL scorer, his team's top playoff scorer, he PKs and plays two ways ... and for that, he's not getting appreciated - the team is sitting on their hands while he's getting tarred & feathered and traded away in the media. I don't think that is very smart behavior of his team. He's an asset they should be protecting - whether they're going to part ways with him or not. If they let him get pissed off, he may not be very cooperative, sympathetic and leave for nothing. They'll have a whole lot of cap space and a less attractive roster for UFAs = less likely to see a parade.

From the 2006 CBA on, we've periodically assured ourselves "we'll fill up the roster with great UFAs" ... Correct me if I'm wrong but that didn't work out so well. We were lucky to get a playoff round many of those years.

Before they cut Marner's throat, I do wonder what the longer view is. What are they going to spend this $52.x mil on in 13 months? I'm sure they'll spend it. But can they get as good price performance? I wonder.

The window for Matthews is 4 years. After that, he's probably starting to decline or departed. How they handle this Marner situation is very important. And it is not all up to them. Marner has the final say.

 

[Bullfrog]

Would Marner go to Buffalo?

 

[herman]

Another silly idea:

To NJD: Mitch Marner (sign and trade), Timothy Liljegren (RFA rights), Keith Petruzzelli (RFA rights)

To TOR: Jesper Bratt, Jake Allen, Simon Nemec, 2025 Rd2 (Jets' pick)

A less silly idea today!

 

[cw]

Another silly idea:

To NJD: Mitch Marner (sign and trade), Timothy Liljegren (RFA rights), Keith Petruzzelli (RFA rights)

To TOR: Jesper Bratt, Jake Allen, Simon Nemec, 2025 Rd2 (Jets' pick)

A less silly idea today!

Ignoring the dollars, I'm not clear on why New Jersey would do that ...

 

[Guilt Trip]

I don't think staying close to Toronto is a priority for Marner, so Buffalo probably isn't a destination he'd have in mind.

A west coast or Sun Belt city with limited or no income taxation, where people don't know you're a hockey player on the street might appeal if he's laying down his godhood.
No income tax: Nashville, Seattle, Las Vegas, Florida/Tampa, Dallas
Low income tax: Colorado, Utah, St. Louis

Cross-reference with which teams are approaching a contention threshold, have a couple of good prospects on the cusp, while the team needs more assists, and has cap space: Nashville, Utah, Seattle?

A sign and trade after July 1 would set him and the recipient team up nicely: 1 775k year + 8 years doesn't change the cap hit, but will show up more palatably on their payroll ledger.

Not that it matters all that much, but I think the comment about Toronto players being gods was something he was fond of.

He didn't say they were gods. Said they were treated like gods. There's a huge difference.

 

[herman]

Another silly idea:

To NJD: Mitch Marner (sign and trade), Timothy Liljegren (RFA rights), Keith Petruzzelli (RFA rights)

To TOR: Jesper Bratt, Jake Allen, Simon Nemec, 2025 Rd2 (Jets' pick)

A less silly idea today!

Ignoring the dollars, I'm not clear on why New Jersey would do that ...

Some owners just love to make a splash.

 

[Jolly good show chaps]

I agree that I can only see Marner headed for free agency. About the only leverage the Leafs have is being able to give him an 8 year deal in either keeping him or sign and trade, but I reckon he will go the Matthews route of shorter term and sign for 3-4 years on the open market at a rate the Leafs won't match and then a big big contract aged 30-31. So that leverage won't apply.

Wonder if this could turn ugly at games this season if/when he refuses to waive. He's already a target on social media. That's bound to transfer into the arena too at some point.

 

[Guilt Trip]

A sign and trade after July 1 would set him and the recipient team up nicely: 1 775k year + 8 years doesn't change the cap hit, but will show up more palatably on their payroll ledger.

Why would 16 do a sign and trade to get the Leafs another asset and set himself up nicely? He can do the Hanifan or Horvat way and sign his 8 year deal after getting traded. Leafs want him gone so why is he doing them any favors? I wouldn't. I tell them I'm willing to go to X or maybe Y team and that's it. Would be talking to either team before any trade and seeing where they want to be contract wise and go from there.

 

[cw]

Another silly idea:

To NJD: Mitch Marner (sign and trade), Timothy Liljegren (RFA rights), Keith Petruzzelli (RFA rights)

To TOR: Jesper Bratt, Jake Allen, Simon Nemec, 2025 Rd2 (Jets' pick)

A less silly idea today!

Ignoring the dollars, I'm not clear on why New Jersey would do that ...

Some owners just love to make a splash.

They sure did with their ownership.
They bought the 76ers and Devils 13 and 11 years ago for ~$630 mil (combined)
In roughly 12 years, they're worth $5.5 Billion.

Injuries and issues had them underachieve last year.
Looks like a promising roster.
I can see why Keefe took the deal.

 

[Guilt Trip]

I agree that I can only see Marner headed for free agency. About the only leverage the Leafs have is being able to give him an 8 year deal in either keeping him or sign and trade, but I reckon he will go the Matthews route of shorter term and sign for 3-4 years on the open market at a rate the Leafs won't match and then a big big contract aged 30-31. So that leverage won't apply.

Wonder if this could turn ugly at games this season if/when he refuses to waive. He's already a target on social media. That's bound to transfer into the arena too at some point.

Only way 16 doesn't get an 8 year deal is if he doesn't want to sign one or goes the UFA route. He has to be on the signing team's roster by the deadline to qualify for an 8 year deal.

If the Leafs ask him to waive he won't be coming back here if he goes to UFA.

 

[Frank E]

I agree that I can only see Marner headed for free agency. About the only leverage the Leafs have is being able to give him an 8 year deal in either keeping him or sign and trade, but I reckon he will go the Matthews route of shorter term and sign for 3-4 years on the open market at a rate the Leafs won't match and then a big big contract aged 30-31. So that leverage won't apply.

Wonder if this could turn ugly at games this season if/when he refuses to waive. He's already a target on social media. That's bound to transfer into the arena too at some point.

Only way 16 doesn't get an 8 year deal is if he doesn't want to sign one or goes the UFA route. He has to be on the signing team's roster by the deadline to qualify for an 8 year deal.

If the Leafs ask him to waive he won't be coming back here if he goes to UFA.

I think you need to put yourself in Marner's camp for a second...this is a way to get him an 8 year deal and leave with dignity...he's from here.  He's not going to poison this well.  And the Leafs have leverage.

 

[Arn]

If Marner goes anywhere, he?s an absolute guarantee to score the Stanley cup final game 7 winning OT goal.

Against the Leafs.

 

[herman]

https://x.com/pppleafs/status/1793613848521347210

 

[herman]

If Marner goes anywhere, he?s an absolute guarantee to score the Stanley cup final game 7 winning OT goal.

Against the Leafs.

I think if we take it to game 7, he will have 0 shots.

 

[Bullfrog]

I agree that I can only see Marner headed for free agency. About the only leverage the Leafs have is being able to give him an 8 year deal in either keeping him or sign and trade, but I reckon he will go the Matthews route of shorter term and sign for 3-4 years on the open market at a rate the Leafs won't match and then a big big contract aged 30-31. So that leverage won't apply.

Wonder if this could turn ugly at games this season if/when he refuses to waive. He's already a target on social media. That's bound to transfer into the arena too at some point.

Only way 16 doesn't get an 8 year deal is if he doesn't want to sign one or goes the UFA route. He has to be on the signing team's roster by the deadline to qualify for an 8 year deal.

If the Leafs ask him to waive he won't be coming back here if he goes to UFA.

I think you need to put yourself in Marner's camp for a second...this is a way to get him an 8 year deal and leave with dignity...he's from here.  He's not going to poison this well.  And the Leafs have leverage.

For Marner, perhaps. I'm not sure his team lists dignity at the top of their values.

If I were Marner, I think I'd lean towards not taking an extension this year. He'll get his $11M+ from somebody. Is an 8-year vs 7-year contract of that much concern to him?

 

[Bender]

I agree that I can only see Marner headed for free agency. About the only leverage the Leafs have is being able to give him an 8 year deal in either keeping him or sign and trade, but I reckon he will go the Matthews route of shorter term and sign for 3-4 years on the open market at a rate the Leafs won't match and then a big big contract aged 30-31. So that leverage won't apply.

Wonder if this could turn ugly at games this season if/when he refuses to waive. He's already a target on social media. That's bound to transfer into the arena too at some point.

Only way 16 doesn't get an 8 year deal is if he doesn't want to sign one or goes the UFA route. He has to be on the signing team's roster by the deadline to qualify for an 8 year deal.

If the Leafs ask him to waive he won't be coming back here if he goes to UFA.

I think you need to put yourself in Marner's camp for a second...this is a way to get him an 8 year deal and leave with dignity...he's from here.  He's not going to poison this well.  And the Leafs have leverage.

For Marner, perhaps. I'm not sure his team lists dignity at the top of their values.

If I were Marner, I think I'd lean towards not taking an extension this year. He'll get his $11M+ from somebody. Is an 8-year vs 7-year contract of that much concern to him?

If you can get a massive signing bonus, 8yrs, dictate where you want to go and get out of a bad situation then why wait? Why prolong the misery? If Marner plays hardball I can see the Leafs keeping him away from Matthews and making his remaining time here insufferable.

 

[Bullfrog]

I doubt that, but it'll likely be the fans making his time insufferable.