Armchair GM Thread 2024-25
- Thread starter herman
- Start date
bustaheims
Well-known member
Bullfrog said:
Yeah. The team isn't going to risk harming their on-ice success in a bid to make a player uncomfortable. If they don't play Marner and Matthews together, it will be for on-ice reasons, not trade-related stuff.
Guru Tugginmypuddah
Well-known member
bustaheims said:
Just put Marner in net.
This Marner situation still bothers me.
One part of the dump Marner theme is they haven't won in the playoffs.
It is not easy for me to embrace that it is mainly the fault of their top playoff scorer, Marner, over the last 8 seasons, who also has one of the best playoff +/-, best playoff ppg and a bunch of his ice time has gone to being their top PK forward.
Then there is the cherry picking of stats "he's only scored more then 4 pts in 3 series" ... which is all Nylander has done. That happens when TEAMS lose series - scoring is held down. Nylander has only outscored Marner in 1 of the 9 playoff series. Why isn't that an issue? (I don't think it is - stats sample size is too small to be conclusive). But if we're going to cherry pick ...
There are no cookie cutters for hockey players. Different players bring different things. Adam Oates took Brett Hull to a much higher goal scoring plateau - about 20 goals more per season. Adam was not known for putting people through the glass. That is kind of how I look at Marner. Matthews & Nylander will continue to score without Marner. They're good players in their own right. I do wonder if their scoring will fall off without a player like Marner. Brett Hull's goal scoring sure did.
Another part of the dump Marner theme is cap space.
I crunched some numbers for a rough sanity test. Not a perfect view of the cap world.
I looked at next year for all the playoff teams plus 3 others who were close
Only 5 of the 16 playoff teams have more cap space available per roster spot to fill than the Leafs next season (that includes Marner & Tavares contracts). Out of the 19 contending teams, Leafs are 9th (middle of the pack) which is not where I expected to find them with all the media howling about cap space.
The following season, 2025-26, without Marner & Tavares, Leafs shoot up to 3rd out of the 19 contending teams. After the 2024-25 season, the Leafs have lots of cap space. So, the cap space problem we want to lynch Marner for is a one-year problem that they're already contractually committed for next year. The only way to get relief is to persuade someone (Marner/Tavares) to take a hike.
I reflect on where we were last summer. "We need a two top 4 dman - one to play with Rielly" - something roughly like that. Our goaltending was suspect - not top flight. So, they don't get those flaws addressed. Samsonov melts. We still don't have those problems solved. And the answer this spring "lynch Marner for his cap space!!" without solving the other problems - hoping Marner cap space will help them buy the players that were not available to buy last summer. Meanwhile, the cap space problem has come about by trading the young prospects for cup runs who are not around for the Shanaplan to afford the roster they originally planned. None of that is Marner's fault.
I am not Marner's biggest fan. But I think he's getting a bit of a raw deal. Some of the stuff I'm seeing or hearing in the media smells. It seems very shortsighted. Our window with Matthews is 4 years - not 1. The strategy proposed does not survive very well at all beyond next year under casual scrutiny in my opinion. The claims being made do not ad up very well logically. It is not rock-solid reasoning beyond next season.
The other part of the cap space issue: the UFA market last season was close Fool's Gold. It has not seemed that great for a while. Teams do not seem to be letting as much talent get to July 1. Doesn't look great for UFA goalies this year. If we are not careful, we could wind up with a bunch of cap space with no one or poor candidates like Klingberg to spend it on - because there is no one else available. Meanwhile, you need some talent on the roster to attract UFA talent because players want to win. That is also concerning about the direction being contemplated.
Hopefully, I'll be glad management is making roster decisions - not the media.
One part of the dump Marner theme is they haven't won in the playoffs.
It is not easy for me to embrace that it is mainly the fault of their top playoff scorer, Marner, over the last 8 seasons, who also has one of the best playoff +/-, best playoff ppg and a bunch of his ice time has gone to being their top PK forward.
Then there is the cherry picking of stats "he's only scored more then 4 pts in 3 series" ... which is all Nylander has done. That happens when TEAMS lose series - scoring is held down. Nylander has only outscored Marner in 1 of the 9 playoff series. Why isn't that an issue? (I don't think it is - stats sample size is too small to be conclusive). But if we're going to cherry pick ...
There are no cookie cutters for hockey players. Different players bring different things. Adam Oates took Brett Hull to a much higher goal scoring plateau - about 20 goals more per season. Adam was not known for putting people through the glass. That is kind of how I look at Marner. Matthews & Nylander will continue to score without Marner. They're good players in their own right. I do wonder if their scoring will fall off without a player like Marner. Brett Hull's goal scoring sure did.
Another part of the dump Marner theme is cap space.
I crunched some numbers for a rough sanity test. Not a perfect view of the cap world.
I looked at next year for all the playoff teams plus 3 others who were close
Only 5 of the 16 playoff teams have more cap space available per roster spot to fill than the Leafs next season (that includes Marner & Tavares contracts). Out of the 19 contending teams, Leafs are 9th (middle of the pack) which is not where I expected to find them with all the media howling about cap space.
The following season, 2025-26, without Marner & Tavares, Leafs shoot up to 3rd out of the 19 contending teams. After the 2024-25 season, the Leafs have lots of cap space. So, the cap space problem we want to lynch Marner for is a one-year problem that they're already contractually committed for next year. The only way to get relief is to persuade someone (Marner/Tavares) to take a hike.
I reflect on where we were last summer. "We need a two top 4 dman - one to play with Rielly" - something roughly like that. Our goaltending was suspect - not top flight. So, they don't get those flaws addressed. Samsonov melts. We still don't have those problems solved. And the answer this spring "lynch Marner for his cap space!!" without solving the other problems - hoping Marner cap space will help them buy the players that were not available to buy last summer. Meanwhile, the cap space problem has come about by trading the young prospects for cup runs who are not around for the Shanaplan to afford the roster they originally planned. None of that is Marner's fault.
I am not Marner's biggest fan. But I think he's getting a bit of a raw deal. Some of the stuff I'm seeing or hearing in the media smells. It seems very shortsighted. Our window with Matthews is 4 years - not 1. The strategy proposed does not survive very well at all beyond next year under casual scrutiny in my opinion. The claims being made do not ad up very well logically. It is not rock-solid reasoning beyond next season.
The other part of the cap space issue: the UFA market last season was close Fool's Gold. It has not seemed that great for a while. Teams do not seem to be letting as much talent get to July 1. Doesn't look great for UFA goalies this year. If we are not careful, we could wind up with a bunch of cap space with no one or poor candidates like Klingberg to spend it on - because there is no one else available. Meanwhile, you need some talent on the roster to attract UFA talent because players want to win. That is also concerning about the direction being contemplated.
Hopefully, I'll be glad management is making roster decisions - not the media.
Bullfrog
Active member
Agreed, cw. I think trading Marner for the hopes that the cap space will allow other acquisitions is just not a smart risk. This is only advisable when you have a deal in place for another player that is contingent on that cap space being available.
I only advocate for Marner's trade if the Leafs get equal value in return. This is unlikely, so I think a trade is unlikely.
I only advocate for Marner's trade if the Leafs get equal value in return. This is unlikely, so I think a trade is unlikely.
Bullfrog said:
Trading Marner makes a ton of sense if he doesn't want to be here anymore anyway, and I think there is a way where you get the truth out of him and a way to position it in a way that is mutually beneficial.
Do you honestly see him signing an extension? I don't think he wants to be one of the most hated (or at least massively polarizing) figures in Toronto sports for another however many years.
https://twitter.com/frank_seravalli/status/1793988552071745918
Some interesting contract projections here:
Brandon Montour: 6 x $7.7M -> could you get a southern Ontario boy to match Rielly's $7.5mi by adding an extra year? Ultimately I see a team or two offering above $8mil though which could be too rich.
Elias Lindholm: 5 x $6.75M -> Lindhom's cost himself a lot of money with a rough season, but he did rebound nicely in the playoffs. Again, I see him getting above this pretty easily but he'd be a great fit at 2C at the right price
Matt Roy: 5 x $5.8M
Brett Pesce: 5 x $6.25M
Dylan DeMelo: 4 x $5.3M -> Three top-4 RHD, all at reasonable-ish projections (DeMelo feels a tad high). None really provide the snot/size that Treliving and Berube might be interested in right now but all 3 could be very good partners for Rielly on the top pairing. It's actually a pretty good year for UFA defencemen
Nikita Zadorov: 5 x $5.3M
Chris Tanev: 3 x $4.7M - > Treliving's favourite sons may have both priced themselves out of the Leafs range with their playoff performances, especially Zadorov. I'd do Tanev at that price but think he gets pushed well over $5mil too
Viktor Arvidsson: 3 x $4.75M -> Arvidsson coming off an injury plagued season but I could really see the Leafs being interested in him. Especially if there happens to be an opening in the top-6 at RW one way or another. Undersized but a speedy goal scorer who plays that north-south game and is good on the forecheck. I could see him doing a Bertuzzi-like one year show me deal considering his injury has likely really hurt his value right now.
Chandler Stephenson: 5 x $5.6M
Sean Monahan: 4 x $5.3M
Alex Wennberg: 4 x $3.85M
Adam Henrique: 3 x $4.3M -> The other notable centres. Not the sexiest of names, but 4 reliable players. Personally I would love to finally get a C with some high end speed as I think that's something we've lacked down the middle. Stephenson appears to be the speediest of the bunch here so he becomes my default pick really.
Leafs UFAs:
Tyler Bertuzzi: 4 x $5.25M -> I liked Bertuzzi, but as I explained elsewhere LW just doesn't feel like where we need to spend money long-term right now
Max Domi: 2 x $3.5M -> At a contract like that it'd be a bit of a no-brainer to bring him back
Ilya Samsonov: 1 x $2.35M -> So long Sammy
T.J. Brodie: 2 x $3.65M -> So long Brodie
Joel Edmundson: 2 x $1.65M -> Edmundson seemed fine in the playoffs, and he has an obvious connection with Berube. That would be a fine enough contract as well. I just wonder about the fit. We've got Benoit already signed. They're both best suited for the 3LD spot so I just don't know if it makes sense to bring him back
Some interesting contract projections here:
Brandon Montour: 6 x $7.7M -> could you get a southern Ontario boy to match Rielly's $7.5mi by adding an extra year? Ultimately I see a team or two offering above $8mil though which could be too rich.
Elias Lindholm: 5 x $6.75M -> Lindhom's cost himself a lot of money with a rough season, but he did rebound nicely in the playoffs. Again, I see him getting above this pretty easily but he'd be a great fit at 2C at the right price
Matt Roy: 5 x $5.8M
Brett Pesce: 5 x $6.25M
Dylan DeMelo: 4 x $5.3M -> Three top-4 RHD, all at reasonable-ish projections (DeMelo feels a tad high). None really provide the snot/size that Treliving and Berube might be interested in right now but all 3 could be very good partners for Rielly on the top pairing. It's actually a pretty good year for UFA defencemen
Nikita Zadorov: 5 x $5.3M
Chris Tanev: 3 x $4.7M - > Treliving's favourite sons may have both priced themselves out of the Leafs range with their playoff performances, especially Zadorov. I'd do Tanev at that price but think he gets pushed well over $5mil too
Viktor Arvidsson: 3 x $4.75M -> Arvidsson coming off an injury plagued season but I could really see the Leafs being interested in him. Especially if there happens to be an opening in the top-6 at RW one way or another. Undersized but a speedy goal scorer who plays that north-south game and is good on the forecheck. I could see him doing a Bertuzzi-like one year show me deal considering his injury has likely really hurt his value right now.
Chandler Stephenson: 5 x $5.6M
Sean Monahan: 4 x $5.3M
Alex Wennberg: 4 x $3.85M
Adam Henrique: 3 x $4.3M -> The other notable centres. Not the sexiest of names, but 4 reliable players. Personally I would love to finally get a C with some high end speed as I think that's something we've lacked down the middle. Stephenson appears to be the speediest of the bunch here so he becomes my default pick really.
Leafs UFAs:
Tyler Bertuzzi: 4 x $5.25M -> I liked Bertuzzi, but as I explained elsewhere LW just doesn't feel like where we need to spend money long-term right now
Max Domi: 2 x $3.5M -> At a contract like that it'd be a bit of a no-brainer to bring him back
Ilya Samsonov: 1 x $2.35M -> So long Sammy
T.J. Brodie: 2 x $3.65M -> So long Brodie
Joel Edmundson: 2 x $1.65M -> Edmundson seemed fine in the playoffs, and he has an obvious connection with Berube. That would be a fine enough contract as well. I just wonder about the fit. We've got Benoit already signed. They're both best suited for the 3LD spot so I just don't know if it makes sense to bring him back
Bender said:
I think it is a very delicate situation. LeBrun reported no list of teams coming from his agent.
A few in the media have reported that the Leafs have not made any inquiries about trading him.
Marner is a newly wed. Both his and her families are from the Toronto area. With his contract, he's not moving twice. Maybe starting a family is underway. I think he's pretty tight with his teammates - some of them won't want him gone.
If Marner gets wind that the Leafs are floating him in a potential trade, what are their chances of changing their minds next summer when/if he's a UFA and they're looking at the 3rd most free cap space among contending teams?
I think this is a very delicate situation and the Leafs better be careful or they'll lose their top playoff scorer for nothing.
The team and the players can control a lot of the PR on this. If they don't want to lose him for nothing, they better reel in the media narrative, protect their asset and do it soon. At the very least, hopefully, they've communicated to calm his camp down. The longer it goes on, the more likely that it does not end well for the team. Worst case for Marner is he fulfils his contract and goes to another team who really wants him that he likes the most next summer and probably for a BIG bundle of dough. Some folks were mad at Sundin for declining to be traded but a lot of that passed. What is his crime? Having the team honour the deal they signed. If the team didn't want that, they should have done the deal differently.
Tavares has also indicated again that he's sticking with his NMC: a contractual right he also negotiated in good faith.
cw said:
I guess my point is he could walk at any point for any reason and the idea we should just sign because he can walk doesn't hold much water because he still can just walk. He obviously holds all the cards but the team has to explore what its options are, and if Marner takes that personally to a point where he doesn't sign (unless it's for more than Willy) and refuses to be traded then he will opt to be one of the most hated sports figures in Toronto's recent memory. Good luck living in SW Ontario again.
As for the NMC point, players do have a right to stick with the NMC, but it doesn't mean management can't also push the topic. Also, in the words of Brian Burke: I didn't sign it.
dappleganger
Active member
I think Leafs should target these players in FA off that list:
Code:
Brandon Montour RD 6 x $7.7M
Sean Walker RD 3 x $4.65M
Brett Pesce RD 5 x $6.25M
Chris Tanev RD 3 x $4.7M
Joel Edmundson LD 2 x $1.65M
Elias Lindholm C/RW 5 x $6.75M (if one year deal like Bert last year)
Max Domi RW 2 x $3.5Mdappleganger
Active member
Bender said:
It's true. Treliving didn't sign Mitch to the NMC. He could take a page out of Burke's book (literally) and say if Mitch doesn't provide a list he'll sit in the press box.
That's what Burke did with Kaberle when Tomas invoked his no trade clause. Kaberle and his agent gave one team, Boston, a day later.
herman
Well-known member
cw said:
This literally just means the front office was focused on the coaching search up until this point.
There have been direct questions to the GM about Tavares and Marner's futures and the only response as been, we are not discussing that today. Not, "they are valued members of the team", or "we will sit and discuss with the player representatives how they want to move forward", or anything even remotely like that. The only thing about Tavares has been that Berube called him while he was at Worlds.
Edit: Berube mentioned he spoke to Marner on Kyper and Bourne. It was a good conversation. He?s excited, Marner?s excited. All that stuff will be evaluated with Brad. And that?s basically all he said about that.
cw said:
The Leafs PR team has protected and placated Marner as much as they could throughout his tenure here. The end of season player interviews all had the same briefing: Marner is a valued teammate. Any media narrative is entirely Marner's own team's actions being judged accordingly.
Guilt Trip
Well-known member
There's zero chance Tre is going to do that. Could you imagine the shit storm that would erupt if word got out that he was a "healthy scratch" for not waiving?Dappleganger said:
Suppose the leafs don?t trade anyone. Here is a rough estimate of how much we can afford to pay free agents ? please do check my work!
10 forwards (currently under contract): 55.5M
2 RFA forwards (Robertson, Dewar): 2.2M?
4 defensemen (I?m not counting Cade Webber): 12M
1 RFA defenseman (Liljegren): 2M?
1 goalie: .8M
Total: 72.5
Cap: 87.7
Free space: 15.2
Am I getting that right?
It seems like we need at least:
A) 1 top 6 forward + 1 other forward (could be Cowan at .9M)
B) 1 top 4 defenseman + 1 other defenseman (could be a cheapo)
C) 1 starting goalie
Looks like we could splurge in one of the categories and get a 7M player and then skimp in the others. I have no idea if there are any goalies available or what they would be going for.
Eg:
Domi (4M), Cowan (.8)
Tanev (5M), Edmunson/whoever (1.5M)
Goalie (4.2M)
That probably leaves us with a pretty terrible goalie (though we might hope for injury luck with Woll), zero offense from the defense outside of Reilly (and a risky injury record), and a slightly worse set of forwards than last year. (I think Bertuzzi was better than his numbers ? in the 2nd half of the year, every line he played on played well even if his numbers were fairly middling. Knies, McMann and maybe Robertson might be slightly more impactful next year than last)
Edit: My source for numbers: https://www.capfriendly.com/teams/mapleleafs
10 forwards (currently under contract): 55.5M
2 RFA forwards (Robertson, Dewar): 2.2M?
4 defensemen (I?m not counting Cade Webber): 12M
1 RFA defenseman (Liljegren): 2M?
1 goalie: .8M
Total: 72.5
Cap: 87.7
Free space: 15.2
Am I getting that right?
It seems like we need at least:
A) 1 top 6 forward + 1 other forward (could be Cowan at .9M)
B) 1 top 4 defenseman + 1 other defenseman (could be a cheapo)
C) 1 starting goalie
Looks like we could splurge in one of the categories and get a 7M player and then skimp in the others. I have no idea if there are any goalies available or what they would be going for.
Eg:
Domi (4M), Cowan (.8)
Tanev (5M), Edmunson/whoever (1.5M)
Goalie (4.2M)
That probably leaves us with a pretty terrible goalie (though we might hope for injury luck with Woll), zero offense from the defense outside of Reilly (and a risky injury record), and a slightly worse set of forwards than last year. (I think Bertuzzi was better than his numbers ? in the 2nd half of the year, every line he played on played well even if his numbers were fairly middling. Knies, McMann and maybe Robertson might be slightly more impactful next year than last)
Edit: My source for numbers: https://www.capfriendly.com/teams/mapleleafs
Jolly good show chaps
Member
I've previously suggested Marner plus extension on July 1 to Anaheim for McTavish, Gibson with ?1m retained and a pick. Then Montour signed in free agency.
That would still allow cap space to potentially sign Domi, Pesce and possibly Zadorov and also potentially trade Liljegren for future trade bait.
Pity this can't and won't happen.
That would still allow cap space to potentially sign Domi, Pesce and possibly Zadorov and also potentially trade Liljegren for future trade bait.
Pity this can't and won't happen.
princedpw said:
CapFriendly includes Cade Webber on the NHL roster which I doubt.
https://www.capfriendly.com/teams/mapleleafs
Taking him off, the Leafs have 15 on the NHL roster and a little less than $19.4M cap space.
The Leafs space space available per open roster spot has them in the middle of the top 19 contending teams this season. (I ignored Pittsburgh)
Next year, if they don't resign Marner (& Tavares), ignoring the unknown signings that will be done this summer, they will have tons of cap space (top 3 among the contenders).
The bigger cap problem for them to contend over the next 4 years of Matthews deal is their shallow prospect system. They can start to restock it but most of those new picks/players will not be developed to help much in the next 4 seasons (dmen/goalies are unlikely). Maybe they can over pay some with younger picks/prospects to land some young players who are further along in their development that will not require as much cap.
More likely, they have to beat the bushes for young UFAs that flew under the draft radar - like Benoit & McMann.
Their NHL UFA focus probably should be on a decent goalie and dmen
Big Daddy
New member
Well it's the Hopes and Dreams season so I'll leave this here:
This is my GM for a day Lineup:
Berube's Line-up
Forwards Cap Hit= $64 075 000.
Domi(3@3.5)-Matthews(13.25)-Marner(10.9 with 8@11.5 ext)
Stamkos(3@3.5)-Tavares(11 with 2@3.5 ext)-Nylander(11.5)
Knies(.925)-Holmberg(.800)-McMann(1.35)
Jarnkrok(2.1)-Kampf(2.4)-Robertson(2@1.5)
Reaves(1.35)
Defence Cap Hit=$22,075,000.
Rielly(7.5)-Tanev(3@3)
Benoit(1.35)-McCabe(2 with 3@3.5 ext)
Zadorov(5@4)-Liljegren(3@2.25)
Webber(.875)-Timmins(1.1)
Goalie Cap Hit= $1,608,000.
Woll(.765)
Hildeby(.843)
Proj. Salary Cap = 87,770,000.
My Dream Roster = 87,758,000.
I would also sign Matt Murray to 1 year @2M. If he is healed and ready
he bumps out Hildeby or if not we get 2M LTIR. I would also sign
Klingberg to 1 year @2M so that he can continue rehab and stay on LTIR
or possibly make a return.
I would also try to make a pre draft deal with Washington for
Backstrom's 9.2M of LTIR for maybe Robertson and Timmins and then bring
back Edmundson on a 2@2.5M
I know. It's my craziness. It's my hopes and dreams. Imagine what
could be added with that LTIR space.
This is my GM for a day Lineup:
Berube's Line-up
Forwards Cap Hit= $64 075 000.
Domi(3@3.5)-Matthews(13.25)-Marner(10.9 with 8@11.5 ext)
Stamkos(3@3.5)-Tavares(11 with 2@3.5 ext)-Nylander(11.5)
Knies(.925)-Holmberg(.800)-McMann(1.35)
Jarnkrok(2.1)-Kampf(2.4)-Robertson(2@1.5)
Reaves(1.35)
Defence Cap Hit=$22,075,000.
Rielly(7.5)-Tanev(3@3)
Benoit(1.35)-McCabe(2 with 3@3.5 ext)
Zadorov(5@4)-Liljegren(3@2.25)
Webber(.875)-Timmins(1.1)
Goalie Cap Hit= $1,608,000.
Woll(.765)
Hildeby(.843)
Proj. Salary Cap = 87,770,000.
My Dream Roster = 87,758,000.
I would also sign Matt Murray to 1 year @2M. If he is healed and ready
he bumps out Hildeby or if not we get 2M LTIR. I would also sign
Klingberg to 1 year @2M so that he can continue rehab and stay on LTIR
or possibly make a return.
I would also try to make a pre draft deal with Washington for
Backstrom's 9.2M of LTIR for maybe Robertson and Timmins and then bring
back Edmundson on a 2@2.5M
I know. It's my craziness. It's my hopes and dreams. Imagine what
could be added with that LTIR space.