Armchair GM Thread 2024-25

[herman]

I believe those suggested trades are without a Marner extension in place, hoch limits the return value.

I do think any Marner trade this July will be a sign and trade. So it won?t really reach true regular season Marner value, but the hope is cap space + younger pre-breakout prospect at a valued position (C/D) + additional balance asset bets.

Either way, because Shanahan opted to run it back last offseason immediately after firing Dubas, Marner and his camp hold all the cards. At this point our best case scenario is turning this into a UFA bidding process where we get something back. Maybe even slide in another signing bonus upon the signing before the trade carries through, to try to ?buy? more assets in return.

 

[Peter D.]

I believe those suggested trades are without a Marner extension in place, hoch limits the return value.

Even that being the case, those still are very subpar offers.  I'd like to think a talent like Marner, even heading into UFA, can bring back a more substantial package than that.

 

[herman]

I believe those suggested trades are without a Marner extension in place, hoch limits the return value.

Even that being the case, those still are very subpar offers.  I'd like to think a talent like Marner, even heading into UFA, can bring back a more substantial package than that.

I have no idea what I had written before it got autocorrected to hoch. lol. Which?

I think we can get better value than what?s been suggested but I also don?t think it will be a home run for the Leafs. Previous recent trades by the Leafs in a similar situation: Kessel, Kadri, which were both m-NTCs.

 

[CarltonTheBear]

I'd argue the Vegas one with Theodore + a 1st is actually pretty good for the Leafs. So much so that it's actually probably unrealistic for Vegas to offer. The Arizona/Utah one is definitely comically bad.  The Chicago and New Jersey ones are bad as is but one extra piece from either team could make them doable.

 

[Zee]

I'd argue the Vegas one with Theodore + a 1st is actually pretty good for the Leafs. So much so that it's actually probably unrealistic for Vegas to offer. The Arizona/Utah one is definitely comically bad.  The Chicago and New Jersey ones are bad as is but one extra piece from either team could make them doable.

I also like the Vegas one. There's hope there cause Vegas isn't shy to make big trades and they lost early this year. Marner might be ok to go there cause they're a contender

 

[CarltonTheBear]

I'd argue the Vegas one with Theodore + a 1st is actually pretty good for the Leafs. So much so that it's actually probably unrealistic for Vegas to offer. The Arizona/Utah one is definitely comically bad.  The Chicago and New Jersey ones are bad as is but one extra piece from either team could make them doable.

I also like the Vegas one. There's hope there cause Vegas isn't shy to make big trades and they lost early this year. Marner might be ok to go there cause they're a contender

Yeah I just don't know if they're looking to add another $10mil+ player. They need to shed salary more than anything right now actually.

 

[Zee]

I'd argue the Vegas one with Theodore + a 1st is actually pretty good for the Leafs. So much so that it's actually probably unrealistic for Vegas to offer. The Arizona/Utah one is definitely comically bad.  The Chicago and New Jersey ones are bad as is but one extra piece from either team could make them doable.

I also like the Vegas one. There's hope there cause Vegas isn't shy to make big trades and they lost early this year. Marner might be ok to go there cause they're a contender

Yeah I just don't know if they're looking to add another $10mil+ player. They need to shed salary more than anything right now actually.

They can and they will.

 

[Deebo]

Its kind of ridiculous the cap is only going up to 87.7M

The PA deficit from the Covid year is reportedly paid off and league revenues were reported as high 6.43B in 2022/23.

Even using a conservative 6.0B as the revenue number, 350M in estimated player benefits (the CBA uses 100M on 3.8B of revenue as their estimate), and no escalator, it results in a midpoint of 88.3M and a cap of 101.5M.

I kind of understand not wanting to increase it too much at once, but its only increasing 4.2M this off season. It went up more than that when the cap was under 70M

 

[bustaheims]

I believe those suggested trades are without a Marner extension in place, hoch limits the return value.

Even that being the case, those still are very subpar offers.  I'd like to think a talent like Marner, even heading into UFA, can bring back a more substantial package than that.

It's the Bleacher Report. Of course, they're bad.

 

[Deebo]

Its kind of ridiculous the cap is only going up to 87.7M

The PA deficit from the Covid year is reportedly paid off and league revenues were reported as high 6.43B in 2022/23.

Even using a conservative 6.0B as the revenue number, 350M in estimated player benefits (the CBA uses 100M on 3.8B of revenue as their estimate), and no escalator, it results in a midpoint of 88.3M and a cap of 101.5M.

I kind of understand not wanting to increase it too much at once, but its only increasing 4.2M this off season. It went up more than that when the cap was under 70M

I was reading the MOU from 2020 and there is 5% limit to the yearly cap increase, which would be that cap of 87.7M

But there is a provision for when it is anticiapted that in the upcoming season the total paid to the players won't end up being 50% of that seasons league revenues, the PA and league can agree to increase the cap by up to an additional 5%. The PA and must league agree to any increase by June 15th.

If there is an agreement, the cap could go as high as 91.85M next season.

 

[herman]

Another silly idea:

To NJD: Mitch Marner (sign and trade), Timothy Liljegren (RFA rights), Keith Petruzzelli (RFA rights)

To TOR: Jesper Bratt, Jake Allen, Simon Nemec, 2025 Rd2 (Jets' pick)

 

[Joe S.]

Either way, because Shanahan opted to run it back last offseason immediately after firing Dubas, Marner and his camp hold all the cards.

I?m honestly not trying to be jerky, but I?m not sure how you can call this past season running it back. Unless you consider not trading any of Tavares, Matthews, Nylander or Marner running it back?

Because the team that finished the playoffs in ?23 and started this season were quite different.

 

[Frank E]

Its kind of ridiculous the cap is only going up to 87.7M

The PA deficit from the Covid year is reportedly paid off and league revenues were reported as high 6.43B in 2022/23.

Even using a conservative 6.0B as the revenue number, 350M in estimated player benefits (the CBA uses 100M on 3.8B of revenue as their estimate), and no escalator, it results in a midpoint of 88.3M and a cap of 101.5M.

I kind of understand not wanting to increase it too much at once, but its only increasing 4.2M this off season. It went up more than that when the cap was under 70M

I was reading the MOU from 2020 and there is 5% limit to the yearly cap increase, which would be that cap of 87.7M

But there is a provision for when it is anticiapted that in the upcoming season the total paid to the players won't end up being 50% of that seasons league revenues, the PA and league can agree to increase the cap by up to an additional 5%. The PA and must league agree to any increase by June 15th.

If there is an agreement, the cap could go as high as 91.85M next season.

This is all interesting, Deebo...what impacts would this have on the escrow?

 

[herman]

Either way, because Shanahan opted to run it back last offseason immediately after firing Dubas, Marner and his camp hold all the cards.

I?m honestly not trying to be jerky, but I?m not sure how you can call this past season running it back. Unless you consider not trading any of Tavares, Matthews, Nylander or Marner running it back?

Because the team that finished the playoffs in ?23 and started this season were quite different.

Yeah, mostly because they ran back the big 4 tickets, knowing they were paid to score and had scoring issues in the playoffs. Most of the changes were just contract expiries. I wouldn't say there were any difficult decisions made and firing Dubas and hiring Treliving really only served as an excuse to delay the break up.

And I said that because Shanahan immediately called every one of the core 4 to let them know they were safe. Some of that was probably because Matthews (and to a lesser extent Nylander) were coming up on their last seasons, and losing Matthews due to organizational dysfunction is a silly way to go about business.

However, the evidence was on the table already. All 4 were highly valued players but causing an imbalance in the roster construction due to the flat cap. One of Nylander (who was shopped pre-extension, still making only 7M) or Marner (no NMC until that July) could have been flipped for help in replacing Muzzin or spelling Tavares' 2C load. Keefe could've been relieved to get a different voice/approach to the playoff style game.

Now we've locked in Matthews and Nylander, and staring down the barrel of Marner's NMC + upcoming extension negotiation after another futile playoff performance. Shanahan turning around this end of season and saying exactly what Dubas said about needing a new mix one season later, and canning Keefe after a 2-yr extension, is extremely oof.

 

[cabber24]

I don't want a new coach to be an excuse to observe for another year before changing anything.

 

[Joe S.]

Either way, because Shanahan opted to run it back last offseason immediately after firing Dubas, Marner and his camp hold all the cards.

I?m honestly not trying to be jerky, but I?m not sure how you can call this past season running it back. Unless you consider not trading any of Tavares, Matthews, Nylander or Marner running it back?

Because the team that finished the playoffs in ?23 and started this season were quite different.

Yeah, mostly because they ran back the big 4 tickets, knowing they were paid to score and had scoring issues in the playoffs. Most of the changes were just contract expiries. I wouldn't say there were any difficult decisions made and firing Dubas and hiring Treliving really only served as an excuse to delay the break up.

And I said that because Shanahan immediately called every one of the core 4 to let them know they were safe. Some of that was probably because Matthews (and to a lesser extent Nylander) were coming up on their last seasons, and losing Matthews due to organizational dysfunction is a silly way to go about business.

However, the evidence was on the table already. All 4 were highly valued players but causing an imbalance in the roster construction due to the flat cap. One of Nylander (who was shopped pre-extension, still making only 7M) or Marner (no NMC until that July) could have been flipped for help in replacing Muzzin or spelling Tavares' 2C load. Keefe could've been relieved to get a different voice/approach to the playoff style game.

Now we've locked in Matthews and Nylander, and staring down the barrel of Marner's NMC + upcoming extension negotiation after another futile playoff performance. Shanahan turning around this end of season and saying exactly what Dubas said about needing a new mix one season later, and canning Keefe after a 2-yr extension, is extremely oof.

Thx. I don?t wholly disagree with any of this. I guess part of me just doesn?t trust Treliving making a big trade. I was really nervous that he was going to turn Nylander into nothing. I also fear the same thing with Marner.

Anyway we?ll see.

 

[herman]

Thx. I don?t wholly disagree with any of this. I guess part of me just doesn?t trust Treliving making a big trade. I was really nervous that he was going to turn Nylander into nothing. I also fear the same thing with Marner.

Anyway we?ll see.

I think that's entirely fair! Treliving's record was not sterling (not sure which GMs is...) but he also did pull off an excellent trade for Tkachuk in like a 4 week turnaround. It only looks sour now because of the extensions levered sight-unseen (was that just him or was that ownership pressure or trying to make Huberdeau feel safe after getting abandoned by Florida?).

What I also see is that Treliving has a good eye for defenseman and just goes out and gets them, often turning a bad hand into something tangibly useful (Adam Fox, Dougie Hamilton, Matthew Tkachuk all requested trades for some reason that I don't think Treliving was at fault for). They're not just big and long, but usually can actually skate and move the puck.

So far, I think his profile checks a number of boxes the Leafs need in this next phase of the roster.

 

[dappleganger]

Buffalo has three solid young defensemen in Dahlin, Power, and Byron.

They could use a top-six winger. Maybe there is a fit there for Marner. It'd keep Marner pretty close to home.

 

[Bender]

Buffalo has three solid young defensemen in Dahlin, Power, and Byron.

They could use a top-six winger. Maybe there is a fit there for Marner. It'd keep Marner pretty close to home.

I'd not trade him in division if it could be helped.

 

[bustaheims]

Buffalo has three solid young defensemen in Dahlin, Power, and Byron.

They could use a top-six winger. Maybe there is a fit there for Marner. It'd keep Marner pretty close to home.

Dahlin and Power are almost certainly untouchables, even for Marner. Byram is a nice piece, but would require another significant piece to get close - especially for a trade within the division.