Armchair President/GM 2023-2024

[Jolly good show chaps]

Going the other way, what are potential returns for the below assuming rental only?

Bertuzzi
Brodie
Domi

Bertuzzi - could command a pretty penny but blows a huge hole in an area we've been shopping for for several seasons
Brodie - still our best defensive defenseman, even if Tanev is here
Domi - probably not much other than a change of scenery type; the cap space is the value I'd be after as he's essentially our 4C

I appreciate what Bertuzzi and Brodie offer to the Leafs but I assume all of the above three would be off somewhere else in the summer. Given that (even despite the back to back wins) the team as it is doesn't appear built for a successful playoff run I'm posing this in terms of restocking the cupboard with assets to use in future trades or with decent prospects to improve for next season and beyond. I.e. doing this instead of spending more assets to tool up for a potentially futile playoff run  to the detriment of future campaigns. Though I appreciate it's an unlikely approach.

 

[Zee]

So the rumours of Nylander coming in a over $11M really kind of bugs me.  Not that he's not worth it right now, but the fact it they probably could have gotten a deal done before the season at 8x$9.75M or something like that. 

Nylander is playing like a monster right now, but how much of that is from motivation for a new contract?  Once he signs the big deal are we going to see the same Willy next season? Yes, I get that Tavares's contract is up after 1 more year and the money is basically re-allocated from Johnny to Willy, but damn son, why can't the Leafs ever get a home run deal on a contract?  Hopefully the cap shoots up like a mofo in the next few seasons.

Doubtful it was ever under 10. I'm betting he wanted 11 all along like Pasta.

He didn't have the numbers to back it up like Pasta did.  Nylander hit 40 goals for the first time last year while Pasta had seasons of 40+ and a 60 goal season.  So maybe under 10 didn't get it done, but I'm thinking 8x10 before the season started might have been enough.

Pasta has had 1 season over 100pts, last year in his contract year. Fwd to this year and Willy is doing the same thing. He might not get 60 goals but he's probably putting up 100+ points. No doubt Pasta has put up some better numbers, and like last contract Willy got a similar deal and it aged just fine.
Both players have questionable defense at times.
I think one thing we overlook is Willy is at least 1/2 the time playing behind Matthews as the go to guy. Pasta has always been the go to especially on the PP.
I have no issue with him getting 11M or whatever. He's earned it and it doesn't look like he's slowing down. These guys are just hitting their primes.
Oh and open market he's getting 12+ IMO so anything under is a deal. Just like Matthews next deal. Could you imagine what he'd be offered if he went to market? A lot more then he will get.

I think you're under selling Pasta. He was a point a game or better player for 6 straight seasons when he signed that deal, and had multiple 40 goal campaigns. Nylander has been a point a game for only the last 2 seasons (and this makes 3)

With regards to Nylander getting over 12 million on the open market - I don't know about that. Also on the open market he could only get 7 years so even 12.5x7 would be under 11 AAV on an 8 year deal.

 

[Bender]

So the rumours of Nylander coming in an over $11M really kind of bugs me.  Not that he's not worth it right now, but the fact is they probably could have gotten a deal done before the season at 8x$9.75M or something like that. 

If that kind of deal was available in the summer, it almost certainly would have been signed.

I mean Nylander had no reason to sign at that time and not bet on himself. We really can't do anything about players who have the stones to bet on themselves which he already has in the past.

 

[bustaheims]

So the rumours of Nylander coming in an over $11M really kind of bugs me.  Not that he's not worth it right now, but the fact is they probably could have gotten a deal done before the season at 8x$9.75M or something like that. 

If that kind of deal was available in the summer, it almost certainly would have been signed.

I mean Nylander had no reason to sign at that time and not bet on himself. We really can't do anything about players who have the stones to bet on themselves which he already has in the past.

Exactly. Nylander didn?t seem super inclined to sign anything this summer. So far, it?s looking like he made the right call.

 

[Zee]

So the rumours of Nylander coming in an over $11M really kind of bugs me.  Not that he's not worth it right now, but the fact is they probably could have gotten a deal done before the season at 8x$9.75M or something like that. 

If that kind of deal was available in the summer, it almost certainly would have been signed.

I mean Nylander had no reason to sign at that time and not bet on himself. We really can't do anything about players who have the stones to bet on themselves which he already has in the past.

Exactly. Nylander didn?t seem super inclined to sign anything this summer. So far, it?s looking like he made the right call.

Unfortunately I think the Leafs offers were really low, like in the 8M range. Had they been closer to 10 I think a deal could have been reached.

 

[cw]

Going the other way, what are potential returns for the below assuming rental only?

Bertuzzi
Brodie
Domi

Bertuzzi - could command a pretty penny but blows a huge hole in an area we've been shopping for for several seasons
Brodie - still our best defensive defenseman, even if Tanev is here
Domi - probably not much other than a change of scenery type; the cap space is the value I'd be after as he's essentially our 4C

I appreciate what Bertuzzi and Brodie offer to the Leafs but I assume all of the above three would be off somewhere else in the summer. Given that (even despite the back to back wins) the team as it is doesn't appear built for a successful playoff run I'm posing this in terms of restocking the cupboard with assets to use in future trades or with decent prospects to improve for next season and beyond. I.e. doing this instead of spending more assets to tool up for a potentially futile playoff run  to the detriment of future campaigns. Though I appreciate it's an unlikely approach.

I've had very similar thoughts.
It would not be an easy sell to MLSE ownership who always seem to want to win now which is why it is unlikely Treliving would even try it. The board & Shanahan may be flipping through the Shanaplan scratching their heads trying to figure out where this fits.

A key factor is what is going on with Nylander. His agent has to know that the closer they get to the trade deadline, their negotiating position probably improves. "Are you going to let Nylander walk for nothing? ..."

It doesn't look like they can seriously contend with the roster as is. They're not as good as they were last year before the trade deadline. The goaltending, D and bottom six all have questions or holes and they are not teeming with young assets to flip to fix it. Of course, no one is thinking of significant injuries that could happen and blow up the best of plans.

A factor in this thinking has to be "what does the UFA market look like this summer if we have a fire sale?" They couldn't fix the D last summer (some of that probably for cap reasons)

The next few weeks could decide Treliving's future in Toronto. He's not in an easy place. Ignoring ownership (which the GM can't), I would look at blowing it up some as an option if I thought I could reload for a better shot next year. It may be the UFA market sucks and their best shot is now. I don't know.

 

[bustaheims]

Unfortunately I think the Leafs offers were really low, like in the 8M range. Had they been closer to 10 I think a deal could have been reached.

I don?t think Nylander would have signed anything significantly lower than the contract he?ll inevitably get. I think he was looking for $10.5m+, knowing that he?d get that if he waited.

 

[Bender]

Unfortunately I think the Leafs offers were really low, like in the 8M range. Had they been closer to 10 I think a deal could have been reached.

I don?t think Nylander would have signed anything significantly lower than the contract he?ll inevitably get. I think he was looking for $10.5m+, knowing that he?d get that if he waited.

I also don't think anyone in their wildest dreams would've predicted Nylander at 5th in league scoring. If Nylander said he'd sign at $9.5 the Leafs would've done that all day long in the summer imo.

Either way I'm not quibbling over $1.25m-$1.75m with Nylander in the first half of the contract, at least not now. He's a proven playoff performer.

 

[herman]

Nylander's team asked for 10 over the summer; Leafs were coming in starting with upper 8s (after starting at 5ish the last time). It's Lewis Gross, so he was always going to start the season to see which way production was trending unless the Leafs blew them out of the water with a Mitch Marner contract or something.

Right now, they've settled on something in the neighbourhood of 'more than Marner'/'feels like Pasta' for a season.

In my opinion:
[*] 11.25 is a touch of an overpay (even for me lol) but it's like <1M over at this point. 6.9 felt like an underpay when it landed and Nylander has exceeded it from 2019 on.
[*] Marner's current deal is an overpay of nearly 2M and boy howdy get ready for round two of this.
[*] Matthews current and future deals are underpays by at least 1.5M.

As outlined previously, there are really only two players on this team that can generate offense solo (or nearly solo) and are also dual threats to set up and elevate teammates. That's where I'd like our cap sheet to prioritize.

 

[Frank E]

Nylander's team asked for 10 over the summer; Leafs were coming in starting with upper 8s (after starting at 5ish the last time). It's Lewis Gross, so he was always going to start the season to see which way production was trending unless the Leafs blew them out of the water with a Mitch Marner contract or something.

Right now, they've settled on something in the neighbourhood of 'more than Marner'/'feels like Pasta' for a season.

In my opinion:
[*] 11.25 is a touch of an overpay (even for me lol) but it's like <1M over at this point. 6.9 felt like an underpay when it landed and Nylander has exceeded it from 2019 on.
[*] Marner's current deal is an overpay of nearly 2M and boy howdy get ready for round two of this.
[*] Matthews current and future deals are underpays by at least 1.5M.

As outlined previously, there are really only two players on this team that can generate offense solo (or nearly solo) and are also dual threats to set up and elevate teammates. That's where I'd like our cap sheet to prioritize.

Tying up a lot of money in RWs though right?  I see your point, but this talk of Tavares taking less than half of what he's making also likely means that they'll need a solution for the giant hole at 2C that Nylander certainly doesn't seem interested in...and I doubt Minten is the answer there, so they'll have to budget for some significant money there.  (And as an aside, they really haven't developed a good centre since, what, Matthews?)

 

[herman]

Tavares taking less than half of what he's making also likely means that they'll need a solution for the giant hole at 2C that Nylander certainly doesn't seem interested in...and I doubt Minten is the answer there, so they'll have to budget for some significant money there.

Tavars can continue to 2C if he has elite support (which he will one way or another given the RW investments). His skating was never a plus, and moving him to LW basically just means he has more stops and starts but doesn't have to swing as far back in the DZ. If I were him, I'd prefer the distance to the stops/starts.

And as an aside, they really haven't developed a good centre since, what, Matthews?

I don't know that I can say we even developed Matthews, as much of it was already in his modus operandi. Leafs coaches did build up his play within structure and applying his skillset on the defensive side, but I think the coaches will be first to tell you that's all Matthews' doing. So if you take him off the table, the last good centre developed would be... Kadri? Bozak? Stajan? Antropov?

 

[cabber24]

Tavares taking less than half of what he's making also likely means that they'll need a solution for the giant hole at 2C that Nylander certainly doesn't seem interested in...and I doubt Minten is the answer there, so they'll have to budget for some significant money there.

Tavars can continue to 2C if he has elite support (which he will one way or another given the RW investments). His skating was never a plus, and moving him to LW basically just means he has more stops and starts but doesn't have to swing as far back in the DZ. If I were him, I'd prefer the distance to the stops/starts.

And as an aside, they really haven't developed a good centre since, what, Matthews?

I don't know that I can say we even developed Matthews, as much of it was already in his modus operandi. Leafs coaches did build up his play within structure and applying his skillset on the defensive side, but I think the coaches will be first to tell you that's all Matthews' doing. So if you take him off the table, the last good centre developed would be... Kadri? Bozak? Stajan? Antropov?

What a brutal list of C's they developed! Honestly, I guess it would be Sittler.

Kadri was a serviceable 2nd line centre but took himself out of 2 playoff rounds (or was it 3?) and I was content when they traded him because we could not count on him to contribute in the playoffs.

 

[OldTimeHockey]

How many C's are teams developing? If we're going to consider Matthews improvement all his own doing, can the same not be said for a large number of 1st line C's in the league?

 

[herman]

How many C's are teams developing? If we're going to consider Matthews improvement all his own doing, can the same not be said for a large number of 1st line C's in the league?

Yes. Some of them develop in spite of their environments (Eichel).

In the very specific example of Matthews:
[*] highly touted 1st overall C with size and speed, compared to Kopitar: works on a completely new nearly revolutionary style of shooting before even joining the Leafs and hits 40 in season 1.
[*] remakes his shot in the offseason again because it wasn't good enough; new focus on defensive structure
[*] updates off-season training to play with a leaner, faster body and strengthening soft tissue to reduce injury; adds a slapshot of his own volition so the PP can use him on the one-timer (per Andrew Brewer on MLHS podcast)
[*] wrist injury prevents shooting, so he changes attack style to tips and dekes in the slot

What are the Leafs really doing to develop him?

 

[Jolly good show chaps]

Going the other way, what are potential returns for the below assuming rental only?

Bertuzzi
Brodie
Domi

Bertuzzi - could command a pretty penny but blows a huge hole in an area we've been shopping for for several seasons
Brodie - still our best defensive defenseman, even if Tanev is here
Domi - probably not much other than a change of scenery type; the cap space is the value I'd be after as he's essentially our 4C

I appreciate what Bertuzzi and Brodie offer to the Leafs but I assume all of the above three would be off somewhere else in the summer. Given that (even despite the back to back wins) the team as it is doesn't appear built for a successful playoff run I'm posing this in terms of restocking the cupboard with assets to use in future trades or with decent prospects to improve for next season and beyond. I.e. doing this instead of spending more assets to tool up for a potentially futile playoff run  to the detriment of future campaigns. Though I appreciate it's an unlikely approach.

I've had very similar thoughts.
It would not be an easy sell to MLSE ownership who always seem to want to win now which is why it is unlikely Treliving would even try it. The board & Shanahan may be flipping through the Shanaplan scratching their heads trying to figure out where this fits.

A key factor is what is going on with Nylander. His agent has to know that the closer they get to the trade deadline, their negotiating position probably improves. "Are you going to let Nylander walk for nothing? ..."

It doesn't look like they can seriously contend with the roster as is. They're not as good as they were last year before the trade deadline. The goaltending, D and bottom six all have questions or holes and they are not teeming with young assets to flip to fix it. Of course, no one is thinking of significant injuries that could happen and blow up the best of plans.

A factor in this thinking has to be "what does the UFA market look like this summer if we have a fire sale?" They couldn't fix the D last summer (some of that probably for cap reasons)

The next few weeks could decide Treliving's future in Toronto. He's not in an easy place. Ignoring ownership (which the GM can't), I would look at blowing it up some as an option if I thought I could reload for a better shot next year. It may be the UFA market sucks and their best shot is now. I don't know.

So if they go down the selling route would a first, a second and two third round draft picks or equivalent prospects be realistic if management decided to sell off those three with some salary retention? Thinking a second for Domi, third for Brodie and a first and third for Bertuzzi.

Then there's the potential to take on a significant but summer 2024 expiring contract or maybe two to help another team free up space for another sweetener. Maybe that nets two more thirds. But then there are more assets to trade this summer or at future trade deadlines without having to give up the likes of Cowan, Mintern and Niemala.

 

[cw]

Going the other way, what are potential returns for the below assuming rental only?

Bertuzzi
Brodie
Domi

Bertuzzi - could command a pretty penny but blows a huge hole in an area we've been shopping for for several seasons
Brodie - still our best defensive defenseman, even if Tanev is here
Domi - probably not much other than a change of scenery type; the cap space is the value I'd be after as he's essentially our 4C

I appreciate what Bertuzzi and Brodie offer to the Leafs but I assume all of the above three would be off somewhere else in the summer. Given that (even despite the back to back wins) the team as it is doesn't appear built for a successful playoff run I'm posing this in terms of restocking the cupboard with assets to use in future trades or with decent prospects to improve for next season and beyond. I.e. doing this instead of spending more assets to tool up for a potentially futile playoff run  to the detriment of future campaigns. Though I appreciate it's an unlikely approach.

I've had very similar thoughts.
It would not be an easy sell to MLSE ownership who always seem to want to win now which is why it is unlikely Treliving would even try it. The board & Shanahan may be flipping through the Shanaplan scratching their heads trying to figure out where this fits.

A key factor is what is going on with Nylander. His agent has to know that the closer they get to the trade deadline, their negotiating position probably improves. "Are you going to let Nylander walk for nothing? ..."

It doesn't look like they can seriously contend with the roster as is. They're not as good as they were last year before the trade deadline. The goaltending, D and bottom six all have questions or holes and they are not teeming with young assets to flip to fix it. Of course, no one is thinking of significant injuries that could happen and blow up the best of plans.

A factor in this thinking has to be "what does the UFA market look like this summer if we have a fire sale?" They couldn't fix the D last summer (some of that probably for cap reasons)

The next few weeks could decide Treliving's future in Toronto. He's not in an easy place. Ignoring ownership (which the GM can't), I would look at blowing it up some as an option if I thought I could reload for a better shot next year. It may be the UFA market sucks and their best shot is now. I don't know.

So if they go down the selling route would a first, a second and two third round draft picks or equivalent prospects be realistic if management decided to sell off those three with some salary retention? Thinking a second for Domi, third for Brodie and a first and third for Bertuzzi.

I'm not sure. I haven't looked that closely. I suspect they might get more than a 3rd for Brodie if the Leafs retained some salary.

An auction to the highest playoff team bidder is likely to get them close to top value or more than what these players are worth.

They obviously would take the best collection of assets. BUT, in the Leafs circumstance, I'd be hunting for young players already drafted and at least partially developed. I'd like them on the NHL roster before Matthews deal expires. They can shop for that or take picks and use those picks to try to get that. A 1st round pick in 2028 obviously isn't going to help Matthews window to win a Cup much if they wait to draft and develop that pick.

They might have to settle on a young developing player with less ceiling than a 1st round pick but they're at least getting something that could help them in the near future.

Then there's the potential to take on a significant but summer 2024 expiring contract or maybe two to help another team free up space for another sweetener. Maybe that nets two more thirds. But then there are more assets to trade this summer or at future trade deadlines without having to give up the likes of Cowan, Mintern and Niemala.

Jones is a UFA. If he keeps playing the way that he is, he might get more than a marginal return.

 

[Bender]

As nice as it is to discuss this, this isn't happening unless the team goes into a major tailspin and CW I would think you would argue the chances of Domi/Bertuzzi being part of any trade would be slim simply because they signed here as 1yr FAs. Do we really think it wouldn't negatively impact our ability to draw FAs?

 

[cw]

As nice as it is to discuss this, this isn't happening unless the team goes into a major tailspin and CW I would think you would argue the chances of Domi/Bertuzzi being part of any trade would be slim simply because they signed here as 1yr FAs. Do we really think it wouldn't negatively impact our ability to draw FAs?

Both Nik & I have said it is unlikely.
These situations tend to go with the GM shooting his wad before he gets fired. (see Dubas record for starters)

I think most would agree that the team is further back in the horse race for a Cup this season than last. So it is likely to take more prospect assets than last year to get them as competitive as last year's team. Their prospect pool is shallow (mid to low 20s - ie 27th by the Athletic). Out of the six 1-2 picks in the next 3 drafts, the Leafs have two firsts left (roughly, they're 30th in that behind the Bruins, Panthers & Lightning (might have missed one) who have 3 picks - some with two 2nds). They need the flow of more cost effective youth on to the roster to help them remain competitive with the cap.

Before Treliving has done much, the Leafs have already arguably mortgaged as much of their future as any nearly team in the league. Bruins, Lightning & Panthers would be in that group.

So the team can manage that or the circumstances as a result of their decisions to not manage it will manage that problem for them. They'll run out of prospect gas before Matthews contract is done. What sort of UFAs do you expect them to attract then?

As for the players, I would suggest they take it up with their agent because they negotiated trade clauses when they did their contracts. Brodie & Domi have a 10 team no-trade list. Bertuzzi, as I just discovered, has a no movement clause so it looks like he's off the trade table unless he wants to be moved. So your position is that the Leafs would be regarded as bad by prospective UFAs because Domi or Brodie don't want to honor their contract negotiated in good faith? I doubt that would get much traction. How many times have players heard "It's a business ..." As Owen Nolan said, "Boo Hoo!".

 

[Bender]

I'm confused how honoring contracts gets into this. People have often said that trading players that just signed as FAs would hurt prospective FAs from signing here. Heck, lots of people say that about Tavares right now. I don't know to what extent I buy that agreement, but it's definitely a popular counter-point to trading newly signed FAs.

 

[cw]

I'm confused how honoring contracts gets into this. People have often said that trading players that just signed as FAs would hurt prospective FAs from signing here. Heck, lots of people say that about Tavares right now. I don't know to what extent I buy that agreement, but it's definitely a popular counter-point to trading newly signed FAs.

I don't think it is that black and white.

Player signs a 5 year deal. Moves his wife & kids to a new home, new school, away from friends, joins the new local charities, cuts local endorsement deals, etc
And the team trades him away six months later ... on a whim to get a 'better player' ...
I can see how that would turn prospective UFAs for that team off.

Some things have changed that fairly short-lived UFA 'tradition'. Contract 101 courses encourage that a good contract is a good understanding between both parties. Part of that understanding has to be, in spite of best intentions, sometimes these deals don't work out and you need to figure out the divorce clauses as part of that upfront understanding. That evolved into clauses in the CBA, standard players contract and player contracts where things like no move or modified move, etc clauses came into existence.

As well, times have changed where the contract dollars can force issues for teams to fit under the cap. Good players may now get traded for cap reasons that didn't exist before 2006.

Can you imagine a Leafs GM facing the MLSE board and saying "you know that multi-million dollar contract I persuaded you to approve with the clauses providing limited trade destinations? Well UFAs will be mad at us if we execute that understanding in writing that I told you was part of the deal. So we're really strapped with this cap and stuck with this plug." I wouldn't want to be that GM trying to say that. A lot of businessmen would have a problem with that and businessmen tend to own the teams.

As for Bertuzzi specifically, he's being paid $5 mil to play with the big 4. His points per minute played are lower than $775k Bobby McMann's who played with Kampf-Gregor. Bertuzzi hasn't exactly blown anyone away with his performance under that contract. A change of scenery might do him some good. I'm not convinced he's a great ongoing answer. I'd give someone else a shot if there is no medical reason for his performance.