Armchair President/GM 2023-2024

[Bullfrog]

I think some are overselling Tavaras's imminent decline. I suppose time will tell, but he's still producing at exactly the same rate he always has while also being defensively responsible. There's zero reason to send him to the wing. He can easily remain as the 2C on this team. Worst case, he goes down to 3C, but I feel even that is unlikely.

Things may change when he hits 37, 38, maybe. but that's still years away.

 

[L K]

I think some are overselling Tavaras's imminent decline. I suppose time will tell, but he's still producing at exactly the same rate he always has while also being defensively responsible. There's zero reason to send him to the wing. He can easily remain as the 2C on this team. Worst case, he goes down to 3C, but I feel even that is unlikely.

Things may change when he hits 37, 38, maybe. but that's still years away.

The lack of center depth is another reason to not move him.  If Tavares moves to the wing (say next year).  That means three of your top 6 wingers are making 11 million.  Where are you going to find a value 2C when you have a limited cap space to rebuild the defense.

 

[OldTimeHockey]

How many C's are teams developing? If we're going to consider Matthews improvement all his own doing, can the same not be said for a large number of 1st line C's in the league?

Yes. Some of them develop in spite of their environments (Eichel).

In the very specific example of Matthews:
[*] highly touted 1st overall C with size and speed, compared to Kopitar: works on a completely new nearly revolutionary style of shooting before even joining the Leafs and hits 40 in season 1.
[*] remakes his shot in the offseason again because it wasn't good enough; new focus on defensive structure
[*] updates off-season training to play with a leaner, faster body and strengthening soft tissue to reduce injury; adds a slapshot of his own volition so the PP can use him on the one-timer (per Andrew Brewer on MLHS podcast)
[*] wrist injury prevents shooting, so he changes attack style to tips and dekes in the slot

What are the Leafs really doing to develop him?

I don't know that we are disagreeing on this. My point is, there isn't a large number of teams that have 'developed' first line centres. If we can even quantify how to measure that really.

Matthews is a unicorn, yes. But if players don't work on their own, to evolve their game, they won't grow. If they don't grow, they don't improve. This is true of 1st liners, 4th liners and everyone in between. I don't think the fact that Matthews has worked his butt off in the summer to become better is any knock on the Leafs. I also think we're silly to assume that the Leafs have zero to do with his development/improvement.

 

[herman]

https://x.com/taj1944/status/1745877352050295007
Hmm, I would not make Minten untouchable for something like this

 

[CarltonTheBear]

If I was Minnesota's owner and I read even just rumblings that Joel Eriksson Ek was being shopped I would immediately fire Bill Guerin just to be safe.

Edit: well along with a bunch of other reasons I'd wanna fire him but that's besides the point right now

 

[herman]

If I was Minnesota's owner and I read even just rumblings that Joel Eriksson Ek was being shopped I would immediately fire Bill Guerin just to be safe.

Edit: well along with a bunch of other reasons I'd wanna fire him but that's besides the point right now

I would trade Marner for him (and a bit of spare parts to even out the cap hits)

 

[Joe S.]

If I was Minnesota's owner and I read even just rumblings that Joel Eriksson Ek was being shopped I would immediately fire Bill Guerin just to be safe.

Edit: well along with a bunch of other reasons I'd wanna fire him but that's besides the point right now

I would trade Marner for him (and a bit of spare parts to even out the cap hits)

I?m coming at this with complete ignorance as I know nothing about him, but what am I missing here? How is a .5 ppg player worth Marner+?

 

[herman]

I?m coming at this with complete ignorance as I know nothing about him, but what am I missing here? How is a .5 ppg player worth Marner+?

Eriksson Ek+ for Marner, technically. In any case, are you familiar with my schtick?

I did have a preseason post percolating about a big Marner trade (before his NMC kicked in), but I don?t remember if I bothered to post it.

Marner: expensive! Probably worth it for regular season performance but? playoffs. He is too easily shut down and it looks out Matthews too. Out of the glaring spotlight, Marner would thrive as a go-to option alongside Kaprizov/Boldy/Rossi

Eriksson Ek: two-way centre, extremely affordable with term (5.25M for 5 more years after this), very very hard to play against especially in a physical grind.

 

[cabber24]

I wanted to analyze if we keep the core four would we have any additional cap available to allocate elsewhere?

Now Core 4 percentage of cap = (11.64+11+10.9+6.96)/83.5 = 48.51%

25/26 Projected
Salary Cap Guess= $91.5
Facts: AM = $13.25 WN = $11.5
Guesses: MM: $12.25, JT = $5.0

Projected Core 4 percentage of cap = (13.25+11.5+12.5+5)/91.5 = 45.90%

The difference in percentages equates to $2.4M more to spend.

If we had just $2.4M more to spend today we couldn't win. I don't think keeping the core 4 intact makes sense if they're serious about winning.

I think MM has to go.

 

[Bullfrog]

$5M is probably low for JT.

 

[CarltonTheBear]

$5M is probably low for JT.

I remember this was talked about here a few weeks or maybe a month ago and I think at the time I felt like JT's number, with the natural assumption that he'd be taking some sort of hometown discount but not play for basically free because he's still a really good player, would come in around $5-7mil. With that said things haven't exactly been going too hot for him since then, and he's now on pace for just 60 points this season. If that's where he's at over the next 1.5 seasons then I think I'd even take that range down just a touch.

 

[L K]

$5M is probably low for JT.

I remember this was talked about here a few weeks or maybe a month ago and I think at the time I felt like JT's number, with the natural assumption that he'd be taking some sort of hometown discount but not play for basically free because he's still a really good player, would come in around $5-7mil. With that said things haven't exactly been going too hot for him since then, and he's now on pace for just 60 points this season. If that's where he's at over the next 1.5 seasons then I think I'd even take that range down just a touch.

I'm willing to give him the rest of the year to see how he rebounds.  This all-star break will probably do his body some good.  I know his advanced stats still say he's underscoring his production but when I'm watching the games lately I'm really not seeing him be all that effective.  The eye test isn't really doing it for me right now.

 

[Big Daddy]

$5M is probably low for JT.

I remember this was talked about here a few weeks or maybe a month ago and I think at the time I felt like JT's number, with the natural assumption that he'd be taking some sort of hometown discount but not play for basically free because he's still a really good player, would come in around $5-7mil. With that said things haven't exactly been going too hot for him since then, and he's now on pace for just 60 points this season. If that's where he's at over the next 1.5 seasons then I think I'd even take that range down just a touch.

I'm dreaming but I'm hoping they allocate 6M to Tavares and he gives 3M to his buddy Stamkos and they both retire together when McDavid signs and gets the Captaincy..
Anyways

 

[herman]

https://x.com/cbjcenter/status/1751680478095003882
What?s your trade package for him

 

[dappleganger]

https://twitter.com/cbjcenter/status/1751680478095003882
What?s your trade package for him

Antro + Cola and a 1st.

 

[CarltonTheBear]

If LA continues it's rapid descent down the standings (2-8-6 in their last 16 games) I wonder if they end up being a potential trading partner for the Leafs.

Matt Roy could be a really good pick-up as he's developed into a reliable two-way top-4 defenceman who plays a lot of PK minutes and blocks a lot of shots. UFA who turns 29 years old this spring, so there's some potential to re-sign him on a medium term deal as well. While he does a lot well his offensive numbers don't generally pop up off the screen and he's not a giant bruising defender so the odds of having to overpay for him, both on a trade and potentially as a re-signing are likely low-ish.

Trevor Lewis is their only other UFA, and while he's obviously nearing the end of his career at 37 years old could still be a fine option for a 4RW spot. Still defensively reliable both at 5-on-5 and on the PK, which is something the team could use. There's also a bit of a Treliving connection as he was in Calgary for the past 2 seasons before this.

Last interesting player would be Arthur Kaliyev, who I've been a fan of since his junior days and is rumoured to be available as it sounds like both the team and player think a changing of scenery would be good here. Not entirely sure there's a spot on the team for him that makes sense right now though, unless the Leafs send another California native player back to LA. Although I could see why there might be some hesitation there.

 

[herman]

PLD sewering his third team lol

 

[dappleganger]

Yes to Matt Roy.

 

[CarltonTheBear]

PLD sewering his third team lol

It pains me to say this considering he's very much responsible for how Muzzin's career ended, but I always liked him as a player and defended how he moved around the NHL. But to get that giant of a long-term contract extension finally and play the way he is now... man that's just flat out bad.

 

[louisstamos]

Matt Roy is the exact kind of d-man the Leafs need. My hope is if he's not dealt at the deadline, they use some of that TJ Brodie money to get him as a UFA.  Good 200 ft D-man with 100+ hits and blocks the last two seasons.