Armchair President/GM 2023-2024

[dappleganger]

Sign me up for Bringing back Gustafsson. I'd definitely look at Connor Clifton if the ask isn't too big.

Also, does Max Pacioretty wan to play on Matthews wing for $1.5m next season?

 

[bustaheims]

Sign me up for Bringing back Gustafsson. I'd definitely look at Connor Clifton if the ask isn't too big.

Also, does Max Pacioretty wan to play on Matthews wing for $1.5m next season?

Patches could be a great buy-low signing, if he's healthy enough to play.

I'm lukewarm on Gustafsson - on one hand, he definitely provides an element the Leafs are lacking and is short supply in the UFA market. On the other hand, he's not particularly strong in his own end, Keefe didn't seem to trust him all that much, and, because of the weak UFA market, there's a good chance he ends up overpaid.

Clifton would be on okay option if the Leafs can't retain Schenn or add Gudas. He's very much that type of D. He wouldn't be high on my list, though.

 

[Peter D.]

A return of Connor Brown at a lower price to be our next Hyman/Bunting would entice me.

 

[herman]

A return of Connor Brown at a lower price to be our next Hyman/Bunting would entice me.

As mentioned in the general thread, we kind of already have that (albeit older and more Swedish) in Calle Jarnkrok. Signed at Brown's old Toronto cap hit too!

 

[CarltonTheBear]

A return of Connor Brown at a lower price to be our next Hyman/Bunting would entice me.

As mentioned in the general thread, we kind of already have that (albeit older and more Swedish) in Calle Jarnkrok. Signed at Brown's old Toronto cap hit too!

I suspect that we finally, finally see Brown reunited with his former Erie Otters centre.

 

[herman]

https://twitter.com/RingOfFireCGY/status/1669776411903811584
But I think Columbus goes nuts here and tries to complete the collection of all the top D picks from 2015 (Babcock wanted a D-man).

 

[Jolly good show chaps]

Thinking about a potential Murray buyout lead me to wonder how the annual cap hits are calculated in these cases. Obviously the actual spend is over twice the length of the remaining contract, but how do they work out the cap hit? In all the cases I've seen Y1 seems to be the most expensive and the post expiry years the cheapest, so clearly that is not shared out evenly as the actual spend is.

 

[Deebo]

Thinking about a potential Murray buyout lead me to wonder how the annual cap hits are calculated in these cases. Obviously the actual spend is over twice the length of the remaining contract, but how do they work out the cap hit? In all the cases I've seen Y1 seems to be the most expensive and the post expiry years the cheapest, so clearly that is not shared out evenly as the actual spend is.

The actualy amount paid in the buyout is 2/3 of the remaning salary over twice the remaining term.

The cap hit is the original cap hit minus how much actual money you save that year.

Murray is paid 8.0M in actual salary for this coming year, which is also the total amount left on the contract.

A buyout would be 5.3M (2/3 of 8M), or 2.67M per year for 2 years.

The savings this year is 8M - 2.67M, or 5.33M

The original cap hit is 6.25M. So the cap hit minus savings (6.25M - 5.33M) is 920k which is the cap hit.

Because ottawa Retained 25%, the cap hit of the buyout is split 75/25.

 

[Bill33]

I'd like to see some players acquired that would get the other teams' heads up, and rush passes- Hathaway would interest me. Mcbain in Arizona, although I think he's an RFA.

More size on D would be great as well. Mayfield is a ufa. 

 

[Jolly good show chaps]

Thinking about a potential Murray buyout lead me to wonder how the annual cap hits are calculated in these cases. Obviously the actual spend is over twice the length of the remaining contract, but how do they work out the cap hit? In all the cases I've seen Y1 seems to be the most expensive and the post expiry years the cheapest, so clearly that is not shared out evenly as the actual spend is.

The actualy amount paid in the buyout is 2/3 of the remaning salary over twice the remaining term.

The cap hit is the original cap hit minus how much actual money you save that year.

Murray is paid 8.0M in actual salary for this coming year, which is also the total amount left on the contract.

A buyout would be 5.3M (2/3 of 8M), or 2.67M per year for 2 years.

The savings this year is 8M - 2.67M, or 5.33M

The original cap hit is 6.25M. So the cap hit minus savings (6.25M - 5.33M) is 920k which is the cap hit.

Because ottawa Retained 25%, the cap hit of the buyout is split 75/25.

Thanks. This suggests that Murray's cap hit would be the same for the next two seasons if bought out, but I thought I've seen that it would be a fair bit higher in either Y1 or Y2 - is that not correct?

Ekman-Larsson has a massive saving in Y1 and lower in subsequent years, so figured there is some sort of calculation being applied rather than the cap hit being spread evenly over the period of time that the penalty applies.

 

[bustaheims]

Thanks. This suggests that Murray's cap hit would be the same for the next two seasons if bought out, but I thought I've seen that it would be a fair bit higher in either Y1 or Y2 - is that not correct?

Ekman-Larsson has a massive saving in Y1 and lower in subsequent years, so figured there is some sort of calculation being applied rather than the cap hit being spread evenly over the period of time that the penalty applies.

Buyouts also take into account cap savings/overcharging if contracts are front or back loaded. Murray?s contract is backloaded, that?s why the cap hit is different in the two years. If teams paid more actual dollars than cap, the buyout cap hit is higher to pay back some of the cap savings. If actual dollars paid is smaller, the buyout cap hit is lower.

I don?t know the exact formula, but that?s the reason. Because Murray earned more in real dollars than cap dollars, the first year of his buyout is cheaper than if he earned the same real dollars every year.

 

[Redleaf]

https://twitter.com/RingOfFireCGY/status/1669776411903811584
But I think Columbus goes nuts here and tries to complete the collection of all the top D picks from 2015 (Babcock wanted a D-man).

With the connection to Treliving this feels like a trade to the Leafs could hit the rumour mill hard in the coming weeks.

 

[Deebo]

Thanks. This suggests that Murray's cap hit would be the same for the next two seasons if bought out, but I thought I've seen that it would be a fair bit higher in either Y1 or Y2 - is that not correct?

Ekman-Larsson has a massive saving in Y1 and lower in subsequent years, so figured there is some sort of calculation being applied rather than the cap hit being spread evenly over the period of time that the penalty applies.

Murray:

The orignal actual salary in year 2 is 0, since the contract would have expired.
That makes the savings for year 2 -2.67M, (0 - 2.67M)
The orginal cap hit is 0, so cap hit - savings in this case is 0 - (-2.67M) or 2.67M
2M for Toronto, 0.67M for Ottawa.


OEL:

The higher the original salary for that year, the lower the cap hit.

Orignal salaries Y1: 10.5, Y2: 8, Y3-4: 5.25, Y4-8: 0
Orignal Cap hit Y1-4: 8.25M, Y4-8: 0
Annual buy out cost: 2.41M

Yearly savings:

Y1: 10.5 - 2.41M =  8.09
Y2: 8 - 2.41M =  5.59
Y3-4: 5.25 - 2.41M = 2.84
Y4-8: 0 - 2.41M = -2.41

buyout caphit (88% VAN, 12% ARI)

Y1: 8.25 - 8.09 = 0.16
Y2: 8.25 - 5.59 = 2.66
Y3-4: 8.25 - 2.84 = 5.41
Y4-8: 0 - (-2.41) = 2.41

 

[Jolly good show chaps]

Thanks guys for the explanations

 

[herman]

https://www.capfriendly.com/buyout-calculator
Plug in the player you want to get rid of. Every member of the core 4 (and Rielly and Muzzin) is essentially buyout proof at this point.

https://www.capfriendly.com/buyout-faq
If you want the mechanics written out. Deebo basically described it already with some live examples.

 

[herman]

PPP has a post today about potential RFA targets:
the most intriguing of the bunch to me is Alexis Lafreniere.

He's a 1OA that really hasn't worked out with whatever is happening in NYR; Kappo Kakko is similarly struggling as well as a 2OA, and they're facing a cap crunch situation.

I'd kick tires on the cost as a he's nearly in reclamation territory. He fits a lot of what the Leafs need: legit LW, a strong combination of size and speed and effort, great in transition. For whatever reason, a lot of his NHL tools are not working with the Rangers' system.

 

[CarltonTheBear]

Remember when the Rangers reportedly (IIRC) wouldn't move Lafreniere for Eichel lol.

Anyway I'd kick tires there sure but I really couldn't see what NY would be interested in from us in return.

 

[bustaheims]

Remember when the Rangers reportedly (IIRC) wouldn't move Lafreniere for Eichel lol.

Anyway I'd kick tires there sure but I really couldn't see what NY would be interested in from us in return.

Yup. Not sure the Rags are quite ready to just give up on him yet, so they'll be looking for something of value in return - in fact, since they'd likely want to save face a little on any deal involving Lafreniere, it would probably require an overpay, and, that makes it an easy no. He'd be a good addition, but the acquisition cost isn't likely to be commensurate with his value.

 

[Kin]

Yeah, the problem with guys like Lafrieniere is NHL GMs are so risk averse that even the tiniest possibility of losing a guy who blossoms elsewhere makes them so scared they'll overpay to avoid it. Which means you basically have to offer so much they'd be stupid not to take it.

 

[herman]

The last 1st overall bust that was traded: Nail Yakupov (2012) and then Taylor Hall (2010) a few months earlier.

Yakupov took 4 years to trade, Taylor Hall took 6 years to trade and both largely because McDavid and Draisaitl arrived.

Hall was still very functional and productive, so there's no immediate comparable to be made there (Adam Larsson 1-for-1). Yakupov was washed and undeveloped and the trade yielded an AHL rando, a conditional 3rd rd pick that upgrades to 2nd if Yakupov scored 15G+. Granted, Peter Chiarelli was involved in these deals and I don't think GM Chris Drury is that level of wonderful.