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Armchair President/GM 2023-2024

herman said:
The last 1st overall bust that was traded: Nail Yakupov (2012) and then Taylor Hall (2010) a few months earlier.

Yakupov took 4 years to trade, Taylor Hall took 6 years to trade and both largely because McDavid and Draisaitl arrived.

Hall was still very functional and productive, so there's no immediate comparable to be made there (Adam Larsson 1-for-1). Yakupov was washed and undeveloped and the trade yielded an AHL rando, a conditional 3rd rd pick that upgrades to 2nd if Yakupov scored 15G+. Granted, Peter Chiarelli was involved in these deals and I don't think GM Chris Drury is that level of wonderful.
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Yeah, calling Hall a bust even just based on his time in Edmonton seems unfair and Yakupov looked so lost that I think by the time Edmonton moved on people really didn't think he had it in him to be a NHL player. For as much as Lafreniere hasn't lit the world on fire, I don't think he's there at the moment.

I know we place a lot of attention on the idea of him being a former #1 but I think after a few years you just become someone with potential who can't put it together and at that point I don't think there's a big difference in whether or not the guy was picked #1 or #3 or wherever.
 
Nik said:
herman said:
The last 1st overall bust that was traded: Nail Yakupov (2012) and then Taylor Hall (2010) a few months earlier.

Yakupov took 4 years to trade, Taylor Hall took 6 years to trade and both largely because McDavid and Draisaitl arrived.

Hall was still very functional and productive, so there's no immediate comparable to be made there (Adam Larsson 1-for-1). Yakupov was washed and undeveloped and the trade yielded an AHL rando, a conditional 3rd rd pick that upgrades to 2nd if Yakupov scored 15G+. Granted, Peter Chiarelli was involved in these deals and I don't think GM Chris Drury is that level of wonderful.
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Yeah, calling Hall a bust even just based on his time in Edmonton seems unfair and Yakupov looked so lost that I think by the time Edmonton moved on people really didn't think he had it in him to be a NHL player. For as much as Lafreniere hasn't lit the world on fire, I don't think he's there at the moment.

I know we place a lot of attention on the idea of him being a former #1 but I think after a few years you just become someone with potential who can't put it together and at that point I don't think there's a big difference in whether or not the guy was picked #1 or #3 or wherever.
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Hall is definitely not a bust in the Yakupov sense.

I think Lafreniere can be had in a year or two, when his perceived value finally comes off the former 1st overall status. I still think his toolbox is worth a look when paired up with the Leafs top-end of the roster. The slew of top-3 picks after McDavid/Matthews (and maybe Hughes) -- even within those particular drafts -- is just a rough, rough stretch.
 
CarltonTheBear said:
I'm being kind when I say I'm not sure I've seen a worse offseason suggestion this year.
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Yup. This is definitely an early contender for "worst take by a supposed insider."
 
Hey everyone - just returned from my European vacation, so I'm catching up on stuff and had time (on beaches ;D) to mull over the Armchair GM stuff.

I'm curious to see what happens with Connor Timmins - while he played well in spurts this year, he was definitely a Dubas reclamation project, and I'm not sure where he fits in on the team going forward.  Do you think the Leafs retain him, or does he get shipped for a 3rd-5th round pick to try and recoup assets at the draft?

I'm in the general agreement elsewhere on the board that Gio will be here next year, but I don't think he's playing close to 82 games again, unless there are some major injuries.  I think he'll be the 6th/7th guy, and should play probably 40-50 games.  He's in a situation where he played so well during the regular season last year, especially during that stretch where he and Holl were basically the top pair while everyone else was injured, but absolutely ran out of gas as the playoffs started.  He's a prime candidate for load management.

Before, I was of the opinion that getting an ace goalie in someone like Hellebuyck was the call, but now I'm wondering if it makes more sense to try and shore up elsewhere.  Matt Dumba is a name that intrigues me - he's 28, so a 7 year deal wouldn't be too offensive, but his advanced stats have really regressed in the last 2 years, which does concern me, but at the same time - he was shouldering a more defensive load in those years (54% D-Zone starts this past year, whereas it as 44% as recently as 18-19).  Tyler Bertuzzi also had a very good playoffs (10 pts in 7 games I believe), and would provide some of that jam we'd lose in Michael Bunting leaving.

Obviously, salary demands et all would factor in to everything, but I would be very comfortable with a lineup like this next year:

Bertuzzi - Matthews - Nylander
Knies - Tavares - Marner
Robertson - Monahan/Domi? - Jarnkrok
McMann - Acciari - Lafferty

Rielly - Schenn
McCabe - Dumba
Brodie - Liljegren
Giordano

Samsonov
Woll


Either that, or sign JVR and Kessel for the 4th line.  Just for the vibes.
 
herman said:
https://twitter.com/akaRCN/status/1670828009190993930
OK, intriguing
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Is it?  We buyout Brodie and replace him with what?  Brodie didn't have a great playoffs but he's been one of our steadier defensemen for the last couple of years.  The free agent market sucks so we buy out a guy this year who will be hard to replace to then lose cap dollars next year when he would be a free agent.
 
L K said:
herman said:
https://twitter.com/akaRCN/status/1670828009190993930
OK, intriguing
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Is it?  We buyout Brodie and replace him with what?  Brodie didn't have a great playoffs but he's been one of our steadier defensemen for the last couple of years.  The free agent market sucks so we buy out a guy this year who will be hard to replace to then lose cap dollars next year when he would be a free agent.
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It?s intriguing in that it?s a horribly dumb thing to do. If we wanted to pull the chute on Brodie (our best defenseman), there?d be a very healthy trade market with the UFA market being absolute week-old used baby diaper on a hot summer day.

At the same time, what will a post-Brodie defense look like (next year)? Or even this year as the injuries inevitably mount. Is there value in jumping on a trade opportunity this year? $0 buyout for this season is kind of funny. So 5M vs dead-2.5M next year is an interesting situation. Treliving is the king of buyouts.

Rielly - Liljegren (RFA)
McCabe - Timmins
X - X
 
Bill_Berg_is_less_sad said:
Bender said:
Is it just me or has Seravalli turned into an idiot?
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I don't remember a time when he wasn't.
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I think there's been a noticeable shift in his work since leaving TSN. There he was just an on-screen personality who showed up to panels while people were already watching Leafs games to do his little bit of "reporting". His role with The Daily Faceoff seems significantly bigger to the point where he's a lot more personally responsible to drive viewers/listeners to their content.
 
Bender said:
Is it just me or has Seravalli turned into an idiot?
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dent-you-either-die-a-hero-or-you-live-long-enough-to-see-yourself-become-the-villain.gif


The hockey discourse version is: the more frequently you have to speak (tv, radio, podcast, youtube shorts, instagram reels, writing), the more dumb it gets.

Case in point: me! CJ, EF, DD and all the insiders really, forced by their mandates to juice their insider-Corsi resort to taking weak point shots as a result. Bob McKenzie skedaddled when the skedaddlin' was good so he lives on in our psyches in the imaginary idealized state.
 
Frank E said:
So, what if Matthews doesn't re-sign?  What do we think are the likeliest scenarios in that case?
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If he doesn't re-sign, ask for a list of teams he'd agree to be traded to and try to extort that team to the tune of 5 - 1st round draft picks.
 
louisstamos said:
Matt Dumba is a name that intrigues me - he's 28, so a 7 year deal wouldn't be too offensive, but his advanced stats have really regressed in the last 2 years, which does concern me, but at the same time - he was shouldering a more defensive load in those years (54% D-Zone starts this past year, whereas it as 44% as recently as 18-19).
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I could actually really get on board with Dumba at the right price. He's had a pretty odd career. From offensive dynamo to someone who didn't even really play PP minutes with Minnesota this season. I sorta figured with his offensive numbers drying up that he had been dropped to 3rd pair minutes with them but like you said he actually just transitioned into more of a defensive/PK role. Played with Brodin all season so that's a good sign he can handle tough minutes (with the right partner at least). And who knows, maybe with the right players/system he can find some of that offensive game again.

With the season he's coming off of and his injury history I'd be very wary of a 7-year deal though. The Athletic is projecting him to get a 5-year, $5.5mil AAV deal which is more in my ballpark (although on the high end). That could potentially give the Leafs a defence of:

Rielly-Schenn
Brodie-Dumba
McCabe-Liljegren
Giordano-Timmins

And obviously there's a ton of flexibility there with literally everyone other than Giordano being able to hop into that 1RHD role for a spell if/when Schenn needs a break from there.

It does take up a lot of cap though but if we know by July 1st that ROR isn't re-signing then it might be a better idea to stay away from the other top rated forward free agents anyway.
 
Frank E said:
So, what if Matthews doesn't re-sign?  What do we think are the likeliest scenarios in that case?
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There's a difference between doesn't re-sign and won't re-sign. If Matthews takes the Tkachuk route and flat out says "hey, I'm not coming back sorry not sorry" then sure, auction him off to the highest possible bidder. But if they just can't come to a full agreement by July 1st or even by September you still keep him and use all the time possible to get something done and take another shot at the Cup with him.
 
CarltonTheBear said:
Frank E said:
So, what if Matthews doesn't re-sign?  What do we think are the likeliest scenarios in that case?
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There's a difference between doesn't re-sign and won't re-sign. If Matthews takes the Tkachuk route and flat out says "hey, I'm not coming back sorry not sorry" then sure, auction him off to the highest possible bidder. But if they just can't come to a full agreement by July 1st or even by September you still keep him and use all the time possible to get something done and take another shot at the Cup with him.
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I hear you, but the shenanigans all season long of Matthews watch?

I could be convinced that if he doesn't re-sign, they're auctioning him off this summer.
 
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