Auston Matthews Extension: 13.25M AAV x 4yrs

[mr grieves]

Capfriendly has McDavid at 15% this year.  I think it was Busta who said that when McDavid signed his contract, he was at 16% of the cap.  It's a high percentage for sure, but an argument can be made that Matthews might be the second best player in the league behind McDavid, or at the very least a part of that tier of players that could occupy the second spot behind McDavid.

My argument is that teams with the best, and fairly compensated, players in the league don't make the Finals.

Ah, that wasn't how it was framed in the initial.  You were missing the part about it being on a team going to the finals.  If you want to frame it as a team that has made it to the finals, then yes, that changes the lens that you are looking at the numbers through. 

Sorry for the confusion. I meant "contend" in that very specific way, which was easy enough to check using CapFriendly.

In the 8 seasons they have historical caps for, none of the 16 teams in the SCF has had a player making more than 13.3% of its cap. Of the 32 in the final 4, there are only 2 examples -- EDM and NYR in 21-22, with McDavid at 15.3% and Panarin at 14.3%.

Matthews is going to be at 15% of the cap when his deal kicks in. If there were a way to assemble the depth needed to go deep with that salary structure, wouldn't more than 1 team have figured it out? 

 

[rdowdall]

Capfriendly has McDavid at 15% this year.  I think it was Busta who said that when McDavid signed his contract, he was at 16% of the cap.  It's a high percentage for sure, but an argument can be made that Matthews might be the second best player in the league behind McDavid, or at the very least a part of that tier of players that could occupy the second spot behind McDavid.

My argument is that teams with the best, and fairly compensated, players in the league don't make the Finals.

Ah, that wasn't how it was framed in the initial.  You were missing the part about it being on a team going to the finals.  If you want to frame it as a team that has made it to the finals, then yes, that changes the lens that you are looking at the numbers through. 

Sorry for the confusion. I meant "contend" in that very specific way, which was easy enough to check using CapFriendly.

In the 8 seasons they have historical caps for, none of the 16 teams in the SCF has had a player making more than 13.3% of its cap. Of the 32 in the final 4, there are only 2 examples -- EDM and NYR in 21-22, with McDavid at 15.3% and Panarin at 14.3%.

Matthews is going to be at 15% of the cap when his deal kicks in. If there were a way to assemble the depth needed to go deep with that salary structure, wouldn't more than 1 team have figured it out? 

The Leafs were already in trouble when you start using the cap numbers as a gauge on whether or not they have a good chance of making the Stanley Cup finals.  Once they signed Tavares, Nylander, Matthews, and Marner to their current deals, the cap percentage spread out over the top 4 players was higher than any team that had ever made the finals.  The closest was Pittsburgh with Crosby, Malkin, Letang, and Kessel. 

I personally feel the counter argument to the cap percentage view is that with the Pittsburgh and Toronto top heavy models, you are hoping that the four highest paid players are driving a big part of your success, so the depth in and around them doesn't have to be at the same level as a team that has less high end skill, but more of it spread throughout the lineup.  Even still, I think the Leafs have done a good job at rounding out the roster given the cap constraints that they've had.   

 

[mr grieves]

I personally feel the counter argument to the cap percentage view is that with the Pittsburgh and Toronto top heavy models, you are hoping that the four highest paid players are driving a big part of your success, so the depth in and around them doesn't have to be at the same level as a team that has less high end skill, but more of it spread throughout the lineup.  Even still, I think the Leafs have done a good job at rounding out the roster given the cap constraints that they've had.   

That's definitely the argument Dubas tried to make for 7 seasons, until he started to say otherwise and was let go.

 

[CarltonTheBear]

Matthews is going to be at 15% of the cap when his deal kicks in. If there were a way to assemble the depth needed to go deep with that salary structure, wouldn't more than 1 team have figured it out?

There's only been a incredibly small handful of teams in the past 8 seasons who had been fortunate enough to have players worthy of cap hits with a ceiling percentage over 14%. And some of them (LA, CHI, SJ) were mostly in a rebuild/retool mode while having aging player(s) with contracts that high.

So the number of teams who have had players with a cap hit percentage over 14% during this period AND were putting together contention worthy teams was just 4 (I think, can correct if I missed someone): EDM, NYR, TOR, WSH. 75% of those teams at least reached the conference finals. 25% of those teams won a Stanley Cup. Considering how insanely difficult it is to win in this league, particularly since this period saw an unprecedented level of cap stagnation, isn't that actually a pretty decent ROI if you will?

 

[Zee]

I personally feel the counter argument to the cap percentage view is that with the Pittsburgh and Toronto top heavy models, you are hoping that the four highest paid players are driving a big part of your success, so the depth in and around them doesn't have to be at the same level as a team that has less high end skill, but more of it spread throughout the lineup.  Even still, I think the Leafs have done a good job at rounding out the roster given the cap constraints that they've had.   

That's definitely the argument Dubas tried to make for 7 seasons, until he started to say otherwise and was let go.

He was only GM for 5 seasons.

 

[Arn]

Matthews on pace for 246 goals.

I say he does it.

 

[ZBBM]

Matthews on pace for 246 goals.

I say he does it.

I do predict he'll notch 5 hat tricks this year and 1 4-goal game on the way to the Rocket ... if his wrist holds up.  That first goal against Minny was the stuff I wanted to see.

 

[Arn]

I reckon he could notch 70 if he stays healthy, which would be quite decent.

 

[Zee]

It would be nice to see Matthews shatter some personal goals and get another Rocket and maybe Hart again, but in the end that won't satisfy the fanbase.  We've got to see playoff success this season, individual awards won't cut it.  That said, I'm wishing Auston and the Leafs the best possible regular season then can get.

 

[Arn]

He?s very quietly notched 29 in 32 games and on an arguably lesser team than he?s had in a few years. Wonder can be do 50 in 50 again?

Currently on a ~75 goal pace.

 

[Zee]

He?s very quietly notched 29 in 32 games and on an arguably lesser team than he?s had in a few years. Wonder can be do 50 in 50 again?

Currently on a ~75 goal pace.

50 in 50 would be amazing but it's really difficult. Any slump will make it that much harder to achieve.i would love to see it, but I'm also just hoping he makes it to the playoffs as close to 100% as possible,  that's the important time of year

 

[Guru Tugginmypuddah]

He is an exceptional player.  He just keeps getting better both offensively and his commitment to improve defensively.  It would be real nice if some of his team mates would show that level of commitment.

 

[Arn]

He?s very quietly notched 29 in 32 games and on an arguably lesser team than he?s had in a few years. Wonder can be do 50 in 50 again?

Currently on a ~75 goal pace.

50 in 50 would be amazing but it's really difficult. Any slump will make it that much harder to achieve.i would love to see it, but I'm also just hoping he makes it to the playoffs as close to 100% as possible,  that's the important time of year

I think the fact that saying he could do it (again) doesn?t feel completely preposterous or get immediately dismissed out of hand kind of speaks to Ron?s point about how exceptional a player he is.

 

[Zee]

He?s very quietly notched 29 in 32 games and on an arguably lesser team than he?s had in a few years. Wonder can be do 50 in 50 again?

Currently on a ~75 goal pace.

50 in 50 would be amazing but it's really difficult. Any slump will make it that much harder to achieve.i would love to see it, but I'm also just hoping he makes it to the playoffs as close to 100% as possible,  that's the important time of year

I think the fact that saying he could do it (again) doesn?t feel completely preposterous or get immediately dismissed out of hand kind of speaks to Ron?s point about how exceptional a player he is.

I understand how great he is and if any player could do it he'd be the one, but the Leafs have played 34 games and he's at 29 goals. As amazing as he's been he's already off the 50 in 50 pace. He'd need to start scoring in most games and getting 2 goals per game in a few to get back on pace.

 

[ZBBM]

He is an exceptional player.  He just keeps getting better both offensively and his commitment to improve defensively.  It would be real nice if some of his team mates would show that level of commitment.

When JT's contract is up they need to give Matthews the C.  Tavares' demeanor doesn't do it for a team that need repeated kicks in the butt.

 

[herman]

When JT's contract is up they need to give Matthews the C.  Tavares' demeanor doesn't do it for a team that need repeated kicks in the butt.

Originally, I would have said similarly, but I now actually kind of think it should go to Rielly.

Tavares was the corporately responsible choice at the time: UFA signing that came home on a discount; anodyne to the extreme in public. Consider the kerfuffle Matthews got himself into the summer of that announcement, handing him the C brings that all back up.

Morgan Rielly on the other hand: drafted several regimes ago, solid soldier who carries himself with similar passion and intensity, but in an emotionally available and thoughtful way. Longest-serving/suffering Leaf who always shows up under the brightest spotlights (playoffs). One half of a Canadian royal power couple who actively engages in charity and social causes.

 

[cw]

When JT's contract is up they need to give Matthews the C.  Tavares' demeanor doesn't do it for a team that need repeated kicks in the butt.

Originally, I would have said similarly, but I now actually kind of think it should go to Rielly.

Tavares was the corporately responsible choice at the time: UFA signing that came home on a discount; anodyne to the extreme in public. Consider the kerfuffle Matthews got himself into the summer of that announcement, handing him the C brings that all back up.

Morgan Rielly on the other hand: drafted several regimes ago, solid soldier who carries himself with similar passion and intensity, but in an emotionally available and thoughtful way. Longest-serving/suffering Leaf who always shows up under the brightest spotlights (playoffs). One half of a Canadian royal power couple who actively engages in charity and social causes.

That is a tough call for me.

I have liked Tavares as Captain. Leads by example. Very even keel. Win or lose, handles himself well. Has taken Knies & Minten into his home. Works hard at his fitness and practice - trying to address his shortcomings. Doesn't leave a lot for the media to chatter about. He's a blessing for the younger players to learn from.

I think you have expressed many of my sentiments on Rielly. If I had to call it today, I'd probably pick him. I'm very impressed with his personal qualities, his hockey talents and how he handles himself.

The hesitation comes from watching Matthews. He plays both ways. He wins faceoffs. He's been a solid citizen. A true all star. But he might be the most prolific goal scorer in NHL history - time will tell. He's flirting with it. We seem to be witnessing something very, very special. He's only 26 and seems to be maturing well. It might be something they want to offer to help keep him four and a half years from now. So by the time Tavares steps aside, I could feel differently.

 

[CarltonTheBear]

There's really no scenario at all in which Tavares gets the C taken off him while he's still on the team for it to go to Rielly. Like none. It would only maybe happen for Matthews because he's heading toward the GOAT status.

 

[Guru Tugginmypuddah]

When JT's contract is up they need to give Matthews the C.  Tavares' demeanor doesn't do it for a team that need repeated kicks in the butt.

Originally, I would have said similarly, but I now actually kind of think it should go to Rielly.

Tavares was the corporately responsible choice at the time: UFA signing that came home on a discount; anodyne to the extreme in public. Consider the kerfuffle Matthews got himself into the summer of that announcement, handing him the C brings that all back up.

Morgan Rielly on the other hand: drafted several regimes ago, solid soldier who carries himself with similar passion and intensity, but in an emotionally available and thoughtful way. Longest-serving/suffering Leaf who always shows up under the brightest spotlights (playoffs). One half of a Canadian royal power couple who actively engages in charity and social causes.

That is a tough call for me.

I have liked Tavares as Captain. Leads by example. Very even keel. Win or lose, handles himself well. Has taken Knies & Minten into his home. Works hard at his fitness and practice - trying to address his shortcomings. Doesn't leave a lot for the media to chatter about. He's a blessing for the younger players to learn from.

I think you have expressed many of my sentiments on Rielly. If I had to call it today, I'd probably pick him. I'm very impressed with his personal qualities, his hockey talents and how he handles himself.

The hesitation comes from watching Matthews. He plays both ways. He wins faceoffs. He's been a solid citizen. A true all star. But he might be the most prolific goal scorer in NHL history - time will tell. He's flirting with it. We seem to be witnessing something very, very special. He's only 26 and seems to be maturing well. It might be something they want to offer to help keep him four and a half years from now. So by the time Tavares steps aside, I could feel differently.

I see no reason why Tavares should not remain captain while he is a Leaf.  He is still at just under a point per game player, and is the definition of professional. 

Matthews would be my next choice.  Not only is he the best Leaf ever, he's continually evolved into a true complete player.  His example on the ice is second to none on this team. 

Rielly would be an excellent choice as well.

 

[ZBBM]

These are all excellent responses but none of them addresses my concern: that his anodyne, emotionless leadership (thanks herman, spot on) doesn't fit with what the team seems to need, especially on crucial occasions.  It's a recurring theme that they fall flat too often in big-drama games.  That they have to have team meetings to decide to respond to Rattyboy and his ilk when they take liberties.  Etc.

I think a more fiery leadership style would help the team.  Even if someone were inclined to be a vocal leader, I expect they are reluctant to go over the head of Tavares ? who, don't get me wrong, is wonderful player and exemplary leader within the confines of his personality.

Matthews is the face of the franchise.  He's got the passion.  He's put that one stupid teenage incident far behind him, after admitting responsibility.  Give him the C and let JT wear an A for his next Leafs contract.  Tavares is the last person on earth who would pout about it and not give it his all.