WhatIfGodWasALeaf
Active member
^^^
You're dead inside.
You're dead inside.
Auston Matthews
- Thread starter disco
- Start date
Strangelove
New member
WhatIfGodWasALeaf said:
And it feels so good.
Hey Herman, is there a statistical case to be made that Matthews might already be a Selke contender? I believe he was matched against Gaudreau the other night, who was on absolute fire, and he got nothing. I recall the Chicago game where he dominated Kane.... His Poseidon stats are pretty good (not top of the league though)...
WhatIfGodWasALeaf
Active member
princedpw said:
Matthews is Aquaman, confirmed. (E5)
herman
Well-known member
princedpw said:
Haha why are you asking me? I generally don?t pay much attention to the awards.
It?s a bit early to say. A lot of this is more narrative than statistics driven anyway. He doesn?t play PK, so that?s a similar knock that Kadri (haha) will get if people bring him up.
There?s no shame in Matthews being more defensively similar to Barkov, Kopitar, rather than Bergeron or Kesler, because Matthews is lighting the lamp better than all those guys.
herman said:
What I really meant is: Is there an argument that Matthews is becoming one of the best defensive players in the league. (I agree that the actual award is more narrative-driven and typically goes to older guys who have built up the narrative.)
Another way to phrase the question: Where does Matthews rank defensively amongst todays centers?
(The reason I ask is that you often seem to give interesting statistical arguments. But if you have no particular response at this time, no worries.)
herman
Well-known member
princedpw said:
You're making me blush.
I guess it would depend on how you measure a forward's defense. On the most basic levels, it'd be ranking things like Corsi-against rates, GA vs xGA to get a measure of the quality of chances and his luck levels. None of those numbers individually and on an individual seasons' worth of information really paints the whole picture. His CA is rather high (not great), but it is off-set by the chances he generates (pretty frickin' great). Corsi is a function of linemates, opponents, team structure, and individual skill, so it's hard to be definitive about it, but shot attempts happen so often during the course of a season/career that it can paint a solid outline of a player.
I'd recommend poking around corsica and playing with the sorts to see how often certain names come up for each metric you're thinking about. The current single score models (GAR, WAR, etc.) have some difficulty sorting him out at the moment because they have built in corrections for low sample sizes that push towards the average.
What I can comfortably say is Matthews is a very complete player and still at the early stages of his development. Offensively, he can burn opponents in just about every way: rush strike, cross-ice one-timers, catch-and-release, goal mouth garbage, long distance snipes, net-front tips, one-handed tips, breakaway/shootout. Defensively, he is smart, fast, strong, deft with the stickwork, highly disciplined emotionally and competitively, and very teachable. His only 'problem' right now appears to be the ridiculous confidence that he has that he can make every play happen on the attack and on the backcheck, and that sometimes pulls him out of the team structure (and maybe that's a function of his 85% health at the moment).
He might not be #1 in every category (speed: McDavid; shot: Laine; etc.), but he's hovering top 5, top 3 in pretty much every category that matters.
WhatIfGodWasALeaf
Active member
princedpw said:
Really?
We thought you were serious.
There is something not right with Matthews lately. I think he has been playing hurt this season. He just had a minor bump with Connor Brown during the game tonight and he was in major pain, I really thought he was going to go to the dressing room. It's such a shame because he's Toronto's best player by far. Hopefully he can recover quickly.
WhatIfGodWasALeaf
Active member
Yeah, Matthews is legit hurt and they need to let him sit until he is better.
They?ve given themselves a little cushion by racking up points early.
Let the kid heal.
It of course hasn?t helped that they?ve added two worker bees to his line to try and protect him from board work and therefore opposition can focus on Matthews with nobody else on the line capable of doing anything really creative.
They?ve given themselves a little cushion by racking up points early.
Let the kid heal.
It of course hasn?t helped that they?ve added two worker bees to his line to try and protect him from board work and therefore opposition can focus on Matthews with nobody else on the line capable of doing anything really creative.
ZBBM
Active member
WhatIfGodWasALeaf said:
This is a line of reasoning I hadn't thought of before.
But if they are shielding him it makes more sense to hold him out than saddle him with suboptimal linemates. Although Brown can finish.
I hate to say it but I wonder if he will be fighting back problems his whole career.
