mr grieves said:
I don't know, I think it's a pretty linear progression:
I think there are some pretty glaring omissions in your read of things. I'll go point by point.
mr grieves said:
Spring 2012 -- trade offers received for Grabbo and MacArthur. Burke's committed to keeping them.
Yes, although there are conflicting reports as to what those offers were. There's a very real likelihood that what you're obsessing about here is how Nonis didn't decide to jeopardize the Leafs playoff chances for some second round picks.
mr grieves said:
March 5(?), 2012 -- Grabbo signed to 2C money. Burke isn't waiting to see who's the best fit for "Randy Carlyle" hockey.
Hard to believe he was fired.
mr grieves said:
Summer 2012 -- During end of season meetings, Carlyle and management evaluate players. One can infer, based on below, the view that Grabovski and MacArthur aren't "Randy Carlyle players" becomes clear, at least to Nonis, then.
No, one really can't. Well, one can if you're bending facts to make Nonis look as bad as possible but, well, clearly that's not going on. Remember, as we've gone over multiple times when talking about Grabo, Carlyle started off giving Grabo 2nd line minutes. For almost a quarter of the season he did. It was Grabo's poor play and Kadri's emergence that bumped him down to the third line role. The evidence actively disputes the idea that this was a determination made before the season began. This applies just as well to Mac whose diminished role has way more to do with JVR's arrival than it does any decision Nonis made.
mr grieves said:
January 2013 -- Burke's fired. Nonis steps in. Shortly after: "Nonis was asked early in his administration as Leafs general manager whether or not the group assembled fit under the style of Carlyle ? who had assumed control from Ron Wilson as the Toronto coach in the final stages of the 2011-2012 campaign. He replied toward the negative before an ultimately successful 2013 campaign. "We need to alter that a little bit," Nonis said of the team's construction in early January. "We need to make a couple of changes to play that style."" (from Jonas Siegel).
Yes but as we've gone over the idea that the players in question "didn't fit the style" doesn't really stand up to scrutiny. Likewise, looking over the teams Carlyle has coached in the past there is no clear "style" that a player has to play that makes them a bad fit. Teemu Selanne, Andy McDonald, Ryan Getzlaf, Travis Moen...lots of players, lots of different styles.
The way Grabo and Mac "didn't fit into Carlyle's system" is that they're players whose value comes mainly from offense who weren't providing offense and weren't providing enough value in reduced roles. That's not a Carlyle specific problem and, quite frankly, we've seen that from the reaction to them being available on the open market.
mr grieves said:
January 2013 to May 2013 -- Players who don't fit the coach's style are kept on the roster in marginal roles; their trade values plummet. The consequence of this inaction is players that had garnered trade interest cease to. A team that was no sure bet to make the playoffs surprises and does pretty well, but the plan either remains or becomes "get Randy his team." In either case, with playoffs a strong possibility, no moves are being made. But, even if they weren't, the players that didn't fit the coach's style were not put in positions where their value benefitted.
Here's where your argument really falls apart. For starters something pretty important things happened between when the team got the trade offers for Mac and Grabo and Nonis got the job. For starters, Grabovski signed a big multi-year contract that a lot of people criticized as being too rich and too long
the day it was signed. That negatively impacted his trade value. Also, there was a lockout. That lockout included salary cap that was going to decrease in the next year. That further devalued any player who had a bad contract. There were lots of reasons those players were less attractive on the trade market besides their own poor play, and let's be real that's still the main reason their value dropped.
Simple fact of the matter is that there just wasn't a lot of player movement in the very brief window between the lockout ending and the season beginning. Everyone was scrambling let alone someone who got the GM job
very recently and
very suddenly.
mr grieves said:
So, before the season started, some players appear to have been deemed not a fit for the coach's style, and the new GM's declared his intentions to assemble a roster that fits the coach's style. Unless he was just mouthing words, the time to move on from players that aren't going to fit is in January.
I think this ignores the very real dynamic that can exist between a GM and a coach. Carlyle may very well have said to Nonis in January that Grabovski didn't really fit in with his plans going forward but Nonis who I think it's safe to say was clearly going to be influenced by Burke very well may have said "Well, clearly Brian thought he was a good fit for this team" and said that he wanted to at least give Grabo a shot. After the season, where Grabo played poorly, Carlyle can come back to Nonis and say Grabo wasn't a fit and point to his crummy play as proof. If there was disagreement between Burke and Carlyle as to Grabo's place within the organization, and I think you have to admit that to reconcile your belief in Carlyle's irrational dislike of Grabo and Burke's willingness to sign him to a big extensions, then Grabo's season gave Carlyle's opinion weight.
mr grieves said:
Every move in the last two weeks has been followed by a press conference in which Nonis crows "I can you Randy's very happy about this..." The last two days have made it very clear the Leafs are testing the theory that it's better to build coaches their ideal teams than to just take the best available players.
With all due respect, this is where you start really sounding like you don't know what you're talking about. This is TSN's list of the "best available free agents" yesterday:
http://www.tsn.ca/nhl/feature/?id=95306
Where's Grabo? #9. Where's Mac? #29. Where are the two guys they actually signed? #1 and #4. I know, I know, the guys at TSN aren't as smart as you or know as much about hockey but the idea that Nonis has favoured guys who fit in with Carlyle's system over better players? That's you man, that's far from fact.
mr grieves said:
1. The plan was always to build a team tailored to Randy Carlyle. In this case, Nonis is a poor GM for failing to evaluate players and make roster decisions in a timely manner (i.e. before your coach devalues your assets) and/or failing to get his coach to be honest about what he wanted on his roster ("Think Grabbo's going to work on your team, Randy?" "Might could..." "... Ok.").
Or Carlyle's answer was "Well, yeah, if he gives us a legitimate second scoring line he'll fit. Failing that he'll have to really prove himself on the 3rd line but even then he's too expensive for that role". Grabo's failure then determined his "not fitting in".
mr grieves said:
2. The plan only became to build Randy's team in the last month or so, after seeing how the season and playoffs went. In that case, Nonis is a poor GM for not having much of a plan -- "we'll stick with my evaluation of the players... you know, or Randy's" -- and then changing tack pretty hard and outsourcing the plan to his coach.
Or, and I know this requires a certain degree of appreciating that Nonis is a person, but Nonis got the job with absolutely no warning and under very strange circumstances after acting as Burke's #2 for a long time. Expecting Nonis to come into that situation with a "plan" that involved a drastic overhaul might not have made sense considering the time he had and the fairly confusing nature of what Burke got fired for. Because of that, he might have opted to stick with the status quo at first and see where the team that Burke had assembled before taking the wrecking ball to it if it needed that.
Mac aside, and I think Mac was always destined to leave but that there was more value in keeping him here as depth than adding the marginal assets you could have fetched at the deadline, the only real way for Nonis to have done what you said is to have seen that Grabo wouldn't have been able to play well this year.
Now, I think the Captain on Star Trek taught the Aliens about linear time through baseball. So, you know, if you ever want to talk Blue Jays....